I start the week with a year to date LOSS of 23%.......lower bear market territory. STILL significantly less than the gain that I added last year. Considering all that is going on over the short term......I am satisfied with where I am right now.
I am happy to see a house around the block from us come on the market for $1.8MILLION. It is about 150 feet smaller than ours and if it sells for that amount it will set a new standard for that size home in this neighborhood. The last home for sale in my very small neighborhood want pending is 5 days. In my larger neighborhood of 4200 homes......we are still seeing a bump up in listings for the summer....about 47 at the moment......compared to about 150 normally at this time of the year. A good variety of homes from about $600,000 to $4MILLION available for sale right now.
No one knows what is going to happen short or medium term......but.... Bruised U.S. stock investors brace for more pain in second half of 2022 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bruised-u-stock-investors-brace-205010913.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "NEW YORK (Reuters) -With U.S stocks on track to mark their worst first half of the year in more than 50 years, investors are studying a range of metrics to determine whether the coming months could bring relief, or more of the same. By any stretch, the first half of 2022 has been a challenging one for investors. The S&P 500 is down around 18% year-to-date, on track for its worst first half of any year since 1970, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, as the Fed tightens monetary policy in its fight against the highest inflation in decades. Bonds, which investors typically count on to counterbalance stock declines in their portfolios, have fared little better: The U.S. bond market, as measured by the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index fund, is down 10.8% for the year to date, putting it on pace for its worst performance in modern history. With investor expectations fluctuating between continued high inflation and an economic downturn caused by a hawkish Fed, few believe the market's volatility will dissipate anytime soon. "We don't expect the choppiness and volatility we've seen over the first half of the year to subside," said Timothy Braude, global head of OCIO at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. GAINS FOLLOWS PAIN? Historical data paints a mixed picture of the trajectory markets may follow in coming months. On one hand, sharp falls in stocks have often been followed by steep rebounds: past years in which the S&P 500 was down at least 15% at the midway point saw the final six months higher every single time, with an average return of nearly 24%, according to data from LPL Financial on market declines since 1932. The S&P 500 rallied more than 3% on Friday for its biggest one-day percentage rise since May 2020 as signs of slowing economic growth led investors to dial back expectations over how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to rein in inflation. For the week, the index is up 6.4%. One factor that may sustain that rally in the short term is quarter-end rebalancing, as institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds draw on record cash levels to bring allocations to stocks back in line with their targets. That phenomenon could lift markets by as much as 7% over the next week, JP Morgan analyst Marko Kolanovic said in a note on Friday. Meanwhile, several so-called contrarian indicators tracked by analysts at BoFA Global Research, including cash allocations and investor sentiment, are flashing buy signals, analysts at the bank said in a note. Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist and portfolio manager with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, believes the second half of the year is likely to be better than the first. He is growing more bullish on equities, particularly shares of beaten-down big tech companies with strong balance sheets, such as Google-parent Alphabet Inc. "There is a lot of bad news priced in on the economy,” he said. "We think the risk is to the upside.” Investors holding on for an eventual turnaround, however, may be in for a stomach-churning ride. A study of bear markets over the last 150 years by Solomon Tadesse, head of North American Quant Strategies at Societe Generale, showed that stocks tend to bottom once they correct the “excesses” of the previous bullish period. That would entail the S&P 500 falling another 22% to 3,020, according to his research, which measures percentage declines during past crises of similar magnitude. The market selloff is “an inevitable needed correction of the post-COVID excesses,” he said, describing a stimulus-fueled rally that saw the S&P 500 more than double from its March 2020 lows. Skepticism on the sustainability of a market rebound extends to individual investors as well. A survey by the American Association of Individual Investors in the week ending June 22 found that 59.3% believe that the U.S. stock market will be bearish over the next six months. Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, believes a recent decline in bond yields may help tamp down volatility across markets, providing opportunities in areas such as emerging market equities and short-duration high-yield bonds. For now, however, he remains cautious on the U.S. stock market. “From a sector perspective, nothing screams safe,” he said. Goldman Sach's Braude, meanwhile, believes that inflation concerns and high commodity prices are likely to make the second half of the year as volatile as the first. "There’s downside risk in stock and bond markets," he said. "In an environment like this cash is king."" MY COMMENT Isn't it fun to be part of a 50+ year event? You will all be able to tell your family, friends, and grandchildren how you invested during the great market event of 2022. So above you have the POSITIVE side of things based on past data and events.......and......the NEGATIVE side of things based on past data and events. I hate to say it but the ONLY time during my investing life that seems similar to what we are seeing right now is the late 1970's and early 1980's. At that time we had a totally incompetent and feckless government....with no clue what to do. We had an oil and gas shock rippling through the economy. AND.....we had out of control inflation. All in all that time was....WORSE....than what we are seeing right now......actually MUCH WORSE. But.....there are many parallels. AND.....that event back than took years to resolve. I do believe that the markets and other aspects of the economy tend to move much quicker now than back than. I also believe that what we are experiencing right now is..... compressed in terms of time......compared to back than. Plus in many ways the economy is different now than back than. BUT....like than....I see no hope that government will wake up and take the steps that must be taken to fix what is now broken in the economy......in fact many........ if not MOST actions........being taken and proposed by government will simply make things MUCH WORSE if they happen. The wild cards right now.....whether or not the FED can ramp up rates enough to kill inflation.......regardless of if they put the country into recession or not. Wild card number two.....will housing hold up and stay at least firm....or will there be a housing collapse at some point? The third wild card is the election in the Fall and the impact that a deadlocked government might have on the markets and psychology. Wild card number four is what happens to EARNINGS over the next couple of quarters. Wild card number five is the fact that people in the upper middle to higher income levels are out there TOTALLY living their lives and seem to have high enough incomes to not care as much as I would expect about what is going on. Wild card number six is the baby boom generation......they are in or nearing retirement and many have NO PENSION.....will this huge generation freak out at seeing their retirement money dwindling and PULL OUT of the markets causing a big short term hit? All in all......I guess I am still anticipating another 10% drop MINIMUM in the markets.......and......that we will be stuck in the current conditions till the election......at MINIMUM. Where we go from there I have NO CLUE. Looking at the BEST CASE.......we get somewhat out of what is going on and back to more normal times in the markets some time between now and the end of the year and we move forward from there. People, incomes, psychology, jobs....many things are different now......than back in the 1970's.....probably a good thing for the markets. Back than very, very few people were investors. The culture and make up of the country was very different back than and there was nowhere near the amount of foreign money sloshing around in the country that we see now. The number of families that are WEALTHY seems much higher now. I consider these differences as......moderately positive. I am RAMBLING.....but there is no CLARITY short term or to at least year end. We will just have to......LIVE IT......to see how it all turns out. Sounds like the normal life of a.......LONG TERM INVESTOR. No one said it would be easy.....short term.
Some good points above. You are right about no clarity right now...and I would add no answers. If it were a couple of issues here and there to contend with maybe things would be a bit more clear. We have a whole plate of issues going on and really no game plan to address them or even the plans offered are not going to ease this economic situation. On the bright side, the last six months are behind us and with each passing day, week, and month we are going to get closer to climbing out of this hole. How long? I have no idea, but I will be here still invested when the tide turns. One foot in front of the other...keep moving forward. “In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on.” ― Robert Frost
The markets move on......and at the same time.....stay the same. We have slogged our way through the past six months.....and.....will continue doing the same into the near future. This week we will begin the 7th month of the year......with the markets way down. Today.....we are starting out on the negative side of the markets where we have spent most of this year.
Here is today and the week in summary.......NOTHING happening.....the issues remain the same as they have been for the past six months. Stock market news live updates: Stock turn lower following last week's rebound https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-27-2022-110403800.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks turned lower Monday morning as the major indexes lost some momentum from last week’s rally. The S&P 500 fell by 0.4% as of 9:45 a.m. ET, quickly erasing gains after rising by the same margin immediately following market open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite each also dipped into the red. The moves follow a sharp rebound Friday that saw the S&P 500 surge 3% during the session and over 6% for the week, its second-best week this year and its first weekly rise since late May. Still, the benchmark index is on pace for its worst opening six months since 1970. During the last session, the Dow rose more than 800 points, or 2.7%, while the Nasdaq increased by more than 3.3%, leading to weekly gains for the indexes of more than 5% and 7%, respectively. Some Wall Street strategists are hopeful that markets may have found a bottom. “As bad as [this year] has been for investors, the good news is previous years that were down at least 15% at the midway point to the year saw the final six months higher every single time, with an average return of nearly 24%,” LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a note last week. J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic also predicted that U.S. equities may climb as much as 7% this week as investors rebalance portfolios amid the end of the month, second quarter, and first half of the year. While sentiment on Wall Street appears optimistic, investors are in for a bevy of key economic reports and earnings that may sway markets this week and put hopes of a comeback to the test. Quarterly results from Nike (NKE) and Micron (MU) will be closely watched for signs of rising inventories and slowing orders like Target and some other retailers have warned about recently, which may renew worries of an economic slowdown among Corporate America. Traders also face a fairly loaded economic calendar this week, with the latest read on core PCE inflation – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of consumer prices, the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey, and manufacturing and housing reports due out through Friday." MY COMMENT Even this little article is having trouble finding anything to say about the current markets. It is a very "slim" rehash of a few long standing issues. The quote about previous market drops and ending the year positive......total fantasy. Much has changed over the past year and a half.......there is no need to outline all the differences.....we all know what they are. The general market direction continues to be on the negative side of the scale.
Markets trying to make a come-back. Looks like the daily direction will become more clear about 11:30 to 12:00 (EDT). This has been the key time of the day for the short term markets for the last few years. The short term markets have to FLAIL AROUND for the first few hours of the day before the "professionals" decide where the daily direction is and where the profitable trades of the day are going to be. BUT......who cares.....all that matters is the long term.
The housing markets have been so crazy over the past year or two....it is impossible to know what is good news, bad news, or irrelevant. I think this is good news.....but who knows. Pending home sales post surprise increase in May, likely due to brief pullback in mortgage rates https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/pending-home-sales-post-surprise-increase-in-may.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, rose slightly in May, up 0.7% compared with April, according the National Association of Realtors. Buyers have been contending with rising mortgage rates since the start of this year, but rates actually pulled back slightly in May, and that may account for the sales gain. Still, pending sales were over 13% lower than they were in May 2021. Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, rose slightly in May, up 0.7% compared with April, according to the National Association of Realtors. That broke a six-month streak of declining demand. Sales were still 13.6% lower than May 2021. Buyers have been contending with rising mortgage rates since the start of this year, but rates actually pulled back slightly in May, and that may account for the sales gain. More supply also came on the market, and total active inventory increased as well, as some homes sat on the market longer. The average on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit a high of 5.64% in the first week of the month, but then fell to 5.25% by the end of the month, according to Mortgage News Daily. By mid-June it surged again to just over 6%. “Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.” The supply of homes for sale has finally begun to rise, up 21% now from a year ago according to Realtor.com. It is still, however, about half of pre-covid levels. The median listing price last week was also up about 17% year over year, holding steady for the third straight week. Regionally, pending home sales rose 15.4% in the Northeast compared to last month and were down 11.9% from May 2021. In the Midwest sales fell 1.7% for the month and were down 8.8% from a year ago. In the South, sales increased 0.2% month to month and were down 13.8% year over year. Sales fell hardest in the West, where homes are priciest, down 5.0% for the month and down 19.8% from the year before. “While interest rates slid during the month, the costs of financing a home purchase remained elevated,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com. “At the midpoint of 2022, real estate markets are mirroring an economy reaching for its post-pandemic reality.”" MY COMMENT What a mixed bag above. Who knows where the housing markets are headed, why, or when. Of course.....the real story is as always......this stuff is ALL LOCAL. The bottom line......if you are looking to buy a house......and.....you find a house you like and want, that you can afford, and you plan to live there for a good amount of time.........just buy it. You will drive yourself CRAZY trying to consider all the "market stuff" on housing if you are a potential buyer. As to mortgage rates.....NO.....they are not going to go down any time soon.
THIS is certainly BAD NEWS for Crypto. One of the most prominent crypto hedge funds just defaulted on a $670 million loan https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/three-arrows-capital-crypto-hedge-fund-defaults-on-voyager-loan.html
In a few days we will start the three month time period that will determine the cost of living increase for everyone that is on Social Security. July, August, and September will set the raise percentage which will be announced in early October. The largest increase was in 1980.....a WHOPPING 14.30%. In 1981 the increase was 11.20%. We think we have it bad with inflation now.....you should have seen it back in the early 1980's. I am looking for at least 8% this year.
Talking about the past in the post above.......you should have been around in the oil crisis of the 1970's. The GAS CRISIS. If you could find a station with gas you would end up having to wait in line for.....sometimes hours.....to get gas. People were assigned odd or even days.......to get gas.
WXYZ- I have been looking at getting in on SNOW. What are your thoughts? I know you have experimented with making it one of your key holdings? I was about to pull the trigger when it touched $120 a week or so back and didnt.
Everybody recognizes this iconic brand...Kellogg's. Looks like they are going to split the company three ways. AP. Kellogg Co., the 116-year-old maker of Frosted Flakes, Rice Krispies, Pringles and Eggo, will split into three companies focused on cereals, snacks and plant-based foods. Kellogg’s, which also owns plant-based food brand MorningStar Farms, said Tuesday that the spinoff of the yet-to-be-named cereal and plant-based foods companies should be completed by the end of next year. Kellogg’s had net sales of $14.2 billion in 2021, with $11.4 billion generated by its snack division, which makes Cheez-Its, Pringles and Pop-Tarts, among other brands. Cereal accounted for another $2.4 billion in sales last year while plant-based sales totaled around $340 million. In a conference call with investors, CEO Steve Cahillane said separating the businesses will make them more nimble and better able to focus on their own products. All three businesses have significant stand-alone potential, he said. “Cereal will be solely dedicated to winning in cereal and will not have to compete for resources against the high-growth snacking business,” said Cahillane, a former Coca-Cola and AB InBev executive who joined Kellogg in 2017. Cahillane will become chairman and CEO of the global snacking company. The management team of the cereal company will be named later. The board of directors has approved the spinoffs. Shareholders will receive shares in the two spinoffs on a pro-rata basis relative to their Kellogg holdings. Cahillane said Kellogg has been carefully evaluating its portfolio since 2018, when it announced a plan to shift its resources toward its highest-growth categories, like snacks. In 2019, Kellogg sold its cookie, pie crust, ice cream cone and fruit business to the Ferraro Group. The pandemic put further changes on hold, Cahillane said. But the company felt the time for the spinoff was right as the company has returned to growth. Kellogg’s net sales rose 3% in 2021. Kellogg has been sharpening its focus on its fast-growing snacks for years; they now make up around 80% of the company’s sales. Pringles sales jumped 13% between 2019 and 2021, for example, while Cheez-It sales were up 9%. But the prospects for cereal and plant-based meat are less clear. U.S. cereal sales have been waning for years as consumers moved to more portable products, like energy bars. They saw a brief spike during pandemic lockdowns, when more people sat down for breakfast at home. But sales fell again in 2021. In the 52 weeks to May 38, U.S. cereal sales were flat, according to NielsenIQ. Kellogg’s cereal business was also rocked last year by a fire at a plant in Memphis, Tennessee, and by a 10-week strike by more than 1,000 workers at plants in four states. The strike ended after the company promised higher wages, enhanced benefits and a quicker path to permanent employment for its temporary workers. In March, a few hundred other workers at a plant that makes Cheez-Its won a new contract with 15% wage increases over three years. Kellogg said it would explore other options for its plant-based business, including a possible sale. Cahillane said the plant-based category is seeing fierce competition from new __ and, in many cases, unprofitable __ entrants, and Kellogg needs to be more nimble and aggressive to counter that. To add to the pressure, U.S. plant-based meat sales have been plateauing in recent months after several years of strong growth. In the year ending May 28, U.S. plant-based meat sales were flat; in the same period in 2021, they were up nearly 20%, according to NielsenIQ. The cereal and plant-based meat companies will remain headquartered in Battle Creek, Michigan, where Kellogg was founded in 1906. The snack company will be headquartered in Chicago with a campus in Battle Creek. Kellogg’s three international headquarters in Europe, Latin America, and AMEA will remain in their current locations. Big-name companies have begun to split up at an accelerated pace, including General Electric, IBM and Johnson & Johnson, but such splits are more rare for food producers. The last major split in the sector was in in 2012, when Kraft split to create Mondelez. Mondelez made its own big play in the snack business on Monday, when it announced it will acquire Clif Bar & Co., a major energy bar company. The $2.9 billion deal is expected to close in the third quarter. This is a particularly perilous time in the food industry due to rising costs, both for labor and for material. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed grain prices higher and this month, the U.S. reported that inflation is hitting four-decade highs.
Yep.....Smokie....I saw that story a few days ago. They are going to kill off an ICONIC company.....under the moronic stupidity of.....creating shareholder value. I dont use any of their products anyway....so I dont personally care. BUT....I hate to see these old school businesses being constantly GUTTED for short term gains. This stuff does nothing more than create a bunch of NICHE COMPANIES that are much more vulnerable to downturns and other negative events due to their compressed and minimal products lines. The handwriting is already on the wall if you read this article. The organic food business is going to be dumped. The cereal business is also being cut lose because it is not high growth enough. They previously sold off a bunch of their products......and....basically they are going to focus on being a snack company. Their sales and growth has been SIGNIFICANTLY DISMAL for the past 15 years anyway. I am NOT taking sides......but years ago they pissed off about half their customers with political stances........and they have been in the toilet ever since. I am definately NOT a fan of companies getting involved in issues that will piss of half their customers. If you are a political based business.....ok. Otherwise.....stick with making and selling your products and stay off the media on other issues. The REAL REASON that this split is happening is the TOTALLY DISMAL results their shareholders have seen over the time period since the 2008/2009 collapse.
Last I looked about 20 minutes ago I was TOTAL RED for the day. A moderate loss. At least I have some money built up over the last five positive market days......to give back. up, down, up, down, up, down. Or actually it is more like.....down, down, down, down, up, down, down, down, up. ALTHOUGH....over the long term it is more like.......UP, UP, UP.
For those that invest by FAD........a sure recipe for disaster. SPACs wipe out half of their value as investors lose appetite for risky growth stocks https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/spa...rs-lose-appetite-for-risky-growth-stocks.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "SPACs, once Wall Street’s hottest tickets, have become one of the most hated trades this year. The proprietary CNBC SPAC Post Deal Index, which is comprised of SPACs that have completed their mergers and taken their target companies public, has fallen nearly 50% this year. The losses more than doubled the S&P 500′s 2022 decline as the equity benchmark fell into a bear market. Appetite for these speculative, early-stage growth names with little earnings has diminished in the face of rising rates as well as elevated market volatility. Meanwhile, a regulatory crackdown is drying up the pipeline as bankers started to scale back deal-making activities in the space. “We believe SPACs will need to continue to evolve in order to overcome challenges,” said James Sweetman, Wells Fargo’s senior global alternative investment strategist. “General market volatility in 2022 and an uncertain market environment resulting in losses in the public markets have also dampened enthusiasm for SPACs.” The biggest laggards this year in the space include British online used car startup Cazoo, mining company Core Scientific and autonomous driving firm Aurora Innovation, which have all plunged more than 80% in 2022. SPACs stand for special purpose acquisition companies, which raise capital in an IPO and use the cash to merge with a private company and take it public, usually within two years. Some high-profile transactions have also been nixed given the unfavorable market conditions, including SeatGeek’s $1.3 billion deal with Billy Beane’s RedBall Acquisition Corp." MY COMMENT These have got to be one of the DUMBEST ways to invest......ever.
So here it is folks. One of the the rarest Superman comic books around… Superman #2 (1939). I pulled the trigger on it last week on Fathers Day… it’s not in the best of conditions, but with only 200 copies in existence - I’ll take it! Seller offered it for sale at $3200 which was already a STEAL, but I sent in an offer for $2700 and he ACCEPTED! This is by FAR the highest prized collectible I own. Nothing comes close. And to be able to get it for such a bargain made it even sweeter.
That is a super COOL book Zukodany. Are you going to get it graded? Or....at least put it in a plastic cover or slab?
I was total RED today. A moderate loss of some of my recent gains. Plus....as an added bonus......I got beat by the SP500 today by 0.85%. Looks like the markets are back to normal.
