So class, here are the topics that will be questioned during the history exam of The great 2022 Market Crash. Please pay attention: 1. What made the government give away sooooo much money to everyone during the covid bubble years? What did the government try to achieve and why did they fail? 2. What did the people do with the money? And why did crypto rise to 60+k by the third stimulus round? 3. Instead of reading such great history books at the time, such as “W’s The Long Term Investor”, why did people trade all of the government’s free money on meme stocks, spacs, crypto and aark? 4. What made these same people believe that they can water their crops with Brawndo: The Thirst Mutilator? please do not be late for the exam and refrain from parking your drones and private satellites on the roof Zukodany jr jr jr jr jr Earth, 3000 AD
That is so funny Emmett.......file it under....."you get what you deserve". People are (still, so far) free to do whatever they think is a good thing. BUT.....at least have the brains to research and know about how what.......YOU are doing.......will impact the ACTUAL environment....if the environment is your thing.
Well I had to look again. We just got back from lunch.....we eat out every day. We take to heart supporting the local restaurants. I am STILL not only green but by a much higher amount. I guess all the bad economic data today.....is not really connected to the real world.......(the markets). I have now moved on to FIVE stocks being positive today.....Apple, Microsoft, Costco, Nvidia, and Home Depot. Today is a perfect example of the FALLACY of stock investors getting all would up about government economic data. What REALLY counts? The basic FUNDAMENTAL data on the businesses that you actually own in the form of shares of stock.
I like this little article. The REAL message.....what actually controls inflation is the FED crashing the economy. The FED themselves....have no real power to stop inflation. That happens when they cause the economy to SUCK. Inflation: Strategist details ‘key ingredient’ to bringing down prices https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...edient-to-bringing-down-prices-173921853.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "An aggressive Fed coupled with a recession coming sooner, rather than later, may be the ingredients which brings down inflation, says one veteran strategist. "I think a lot of the negative news is priced in [the markets], and what may be starting to come into the mix is a realization that [a] recession is sooner, not later, and we've been in that camp. I think one has probably already started," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "The combination of a more aggressive Fed and a recession sooner rather than later, probably is the key ingredient in the recipe to bringing inflation down," said Sonders. Her comments came on the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a hot inflation print of 9.1%, the highest level since 1981. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points at its next meeting in order to combat high prices and squash demand. Economists warn of recession risks as the Fed tightens monetary policy into a slowing economy. A tight labor market with 3.6% unemployment has thus far emboldened the central bank to continue on a path to normalize rates. But Sonders warns the jobless rate is a lagging economic indicator. "It's the economy that goes into a recession that then causes the unemployment rate to go up. It's not the case that the unemployment rate starts to move up significantly and then you get a recession," "If you look at unemployment claims, which is a leading indicator, they're up 36% from the April low," said Sonders. "Then you add to it things like layoff announcements ... and then the anecdotes of hiring freezes, potential layoff announcements. I think it all just stacks up to — not a message of we're in implosion mode here — but it probably gets worse from here not better."" MY COMMENT YES.....the jobless rate is a lagging indicator. People that think they can flit around from job to job right now are in for a big shock. Good jobs at big companies are ALREADY being cut. This will filter its way back down the job ladder. As to the FED......NO.....doing interest rate increases does nothing. What has the ACTUAL impact on inflation.....is.....the Recession or CRASH that the FED never avoids. The MYTHICAL soft landing.....never happens. I do think that we need to raise rates.......at a controlled, telegraphed, and sustained fashion. We let the rates stay too low.......100 year lows.....for way too long. Along with all the FREE money and other government goodies.....we way overstimulated the economy. You know that things are way over stimulated and out of control when people will not work.
my mother always said if you can't say something nice, don't say anything. i've been working on that.
And to continue my.......DOOM&GLOOM. Inflation: 'Very high odds we'll finish the year materially higher,' says investor https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...aterially-higher-says-investor-175221112.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Inflation won't come down significantly anytime soon, says one veteran investor. "The Fed has one tool, the ability to crush demand. That's in the face of inflation that is not transitory, that is not poised to recede anytime soon," Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, told Yahoo Finance Live. "In fact I think it's very high odds that we'll finish the year materially higher in inflation than the 9% we have now," he added. This week's CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 9.1% — the highest since 1981. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates into order dampen demand and combat inflation. "This is all in response to a burst of inflation predicated on causes none of which the Fed has any control over. Prices are set by supply and demand," said Arnott. "To everyone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail," said Arnott. "What about the supply side? Finding ways to increase the supply of goods and services," he added. Economists have warned of a recession if the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy too quickly into a slowing economy. "This is avoidable. There was no reason to push us into a recession," said Arnott. "They [recessions] don't naturally begin with 2 job openings for every seeker," said the researcher, referring to the tight labor market with 3.6% unemployment. Last month's strong job market data was seen as a signal for the Federal Reserve to continue on its path to normalize rates." MY COMMENT WELL....actually there is a good reason to push us into a recession. The FED has no other way to impact inflation. Finally someone talking about supply and demand and the inflation we are seeing at the moment. What a NOVEL idea. PLUS....you know me......I want my BIG Social Security cost of living raise in October for 2023 payments. SO.......YEAH......lets keep that inflation going for a while. (yes.....sarcasm.....but I will not turn down the extra SS money when it happens)
Actually I am feeling very good about the markets today. The NASDAQ just turned positive with about 25 minutes to go. I am up nicely in my account. AND......I am enjoying the show that the FED, government, and the other morons, are putting on for us daily. It is fun watching REALITY intrude on their delusions. As an investor I love it. The last two days were probably the WORST couple of economic news days in a long, long, time. AND yet......here I am with a nice moderate gain in my accounts. The economy......IS NOT.....the markets. One nice thing about long term investing......all the delusional short term BS is irrelevant. As I sit....... fully invested in the markets day after day......none of this "stuff" matters in the slightest to me.
We played a late afternoon....early evening.....show yesterday. At 5:30 it was jumping from 108 to 109 degrees. Of course we were outside as usual. A nice big covered stage with backstage areas.......but very hot. We will be playing about 100 miles away on Saturday......once again outside. At least this venue also has a nice covered stage surrounded by massive trees that shade the area nicely.
What a BEAUTIFUL market day for me today. If I had not seen any of the economic news I would have had no idea of the uniformly BAD economic news of today. I was nicely in the green today and made good money across all my accounts. I ALSO.....beat the SP500 today by 1.16%. It was nice to see the NASDAQ end up green today and the SP500 end the day with a mild loss. I ended the day with 7 stocks UP and 3 down. My losers today were.....Nike, Honeywell and Google. It appears that everyone is waiting for the big split tomorrow to do any buying of Google shares.
TGIF....tomorrow. Lets build on the market COME-BACK that we saw today. One nice thing about the rest of the year......if we dont have a BLACK SWAN EVENT.......ALL of the market negatives are out there and well known right now. So....they are totally baked in. Therefore....the power of these news items to move the markets short term is extremely reduced. This gives us a solid chance to.......at worst.....just sit in the current trading range......and......at best start, to make some positive progress.
AND.....as if my day could not get any better......I just love to see one of our ELITE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE......out there whining like a spoiled crybaby. Dimon rips Fed stress test as ‘terrible way to run’ financial system after his bank halts buybacks https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/jam...as-terrible-way-to-run-financial-system-.html NOT....going to even post the article....you can read it.....if you enjoy seeing Dimon having a hissy-fit. I certainly enjoyed it.
You know the black swan is coming… it’s inevitable… Who or what will it be? Will it be related to all the nonsense that we endured in the past 2 years or will it be a total left-field unimagined entity collapse. Definitely exciting times for young investors!
Wrapped up a meeting with our architect today. Boy are we screwed. This won’t be a cheap project for sure! To recap, we bought a property early last year and benefited from a super low mortgage and a ridiculously low price. That’s right before inflation started to brew and eventually mortgage rates went up. Go us!! Well, now we are in the process of rezoning that house to commercial and the whole process is estimated at 9k between filing for permits, drawings and counseling. And only then we are getting into having the architect get into detailed blueprint drawings to provide the builder, which is an additional 35k…. Only after all of those expenses will we be looking into pricing the project with a builder which is estimated at 100/sf being that the house is already there and just needs to be modified…. So you see, that’s just life for ya… You end up winning when the good times roll, and then you get to lose when times are rough….
Actually.....I consider negative earnings and guidance baked in. Everyone is expecting it. Now.....I am not saying we are at a bottom. There will be plenty of downside from here. At present I believe that risk is 10-15% short term. On the other hand.......in terms of real life investing......I am fully invested for the long term as usual. So......If I am right or wrong short term is irrelevant. I will simply continue as I usually do with my life long investing plan. That is the SCHIZOPHRENIA of this thread. In order to have something to talk about and in line with my lifelong interest in business, economics, and psychology....much content on here is short term discussion and events. BUT.....the investing focus.....is STILL long term.
