Wait a minute , how did I end up getting drug into this ? OK OK lets do it. But leave your sharpies at home, I don't want to wake up looking like I fell asleep at a frat party. I'll let the Admiral (wife) know what's on deck. I'm just a lowly Captain on this ship. She should be delighted ! Thanks To Everyone, Cheers to 2023 & Here's to 2024
I am NOT going to post any of the articles on what to expect in 2024.....that I am seeing today. Most are negative....BS....fear mongering....the "usual" WRONG experts that you see all the time.....and simply unsupported, made up, media opinion. In fact....I find it interesting that most, if not all of them, are broadly general and dont mention anything about FUNDAMENTALS. Personally I am more interested in 4th quarter earnings which will start up in about a month or so. I also prefer to wait and see how it all plays out in......REALITY.
I was just thinking about the Ten Year Treasury yield. It started the year on 12-30-22 at a yield of 3.879%. We than had 10-11 rate hikes by the FED over the course of 2023. After all those rate hikes and everything else that happened this year......it ended the year on 12-29-23 with a yield of.....3.866%. After all the.....flailing around and gnashing to teeth all year.....it is barely changed from where it started the year. All the "stuff" and commentary that went on all year was in hindsight all the usual.....BS. And it remains at the extreme LOW END of the historic range when you look at a long term chart of Ten Year yields.....in spite of all the blather about it being so "high".
My INDIVIDUAL STOCK results for 2023: NVDA +238.87% MSFT +56.80% AAPL +48.18% GOOGL +58.32% AMZN +80.88% COST +44.60% HD +9.72% Others that I owned at the start of 2023: TSLA +101.72% HON (-2.14%) NKE (-7.21%)
I am updating my Fund results now that I believe more accurate data is available: Schwab SP500 Index fund +24.40% Fidelity Contra fund +39.33% (from the Fidelity website)
I've been away on a short little trip, but it looks like this place has now turned into an end of year party!! And no...the "experts", pundits, fortune tellers and other sorts of wizardry are not invited.... I have been catching up on some of the previous posts/conversations...and some good ones at that from everyone. Good to see in the thread. There have been some massive returns this year it appears and a lot of you guys/gals have just slayed it. Way to hang in there and get it done. Looks like I finished up just a tad over +28% for the year. I will take it. Here is to a prosperous beginning....Happy New Year everyone!!!!! I have enjoyed our year together!!
WXYZ , You bid farewell to Honeywell , How many years did you have that stock ? I just checked and Schwab hasn't updated the totals yet , "Portfolio Performance" calculator will be off I could probably hand calculate, but I haven't had enough coffee yet, and I'm lazy But I am awake enough to notice something, Some accounts have been updated to 12/29 and some are still "as of 12/28" huh I had 1 stock in the green yesterday, MO, Altria Group with a yield of 9. As of yesterday "Morning" my daughters "K" portfolio was the leader of my pack with a return of 40.99% My wifey, The Admiral's account 39.97% as of 12/29 My main account had a return of 36.27% , as of 12/28 the other accounts range from 32 to 35% I have quit trying to hit "The Home Run" as in my Microsoft purchase back in 1997, 1998 OK I did buy PLUG this year as a long term shot My portfolio is similar to WXYZ's but different, I own mostly ETF's plus some of the same "High Quality" Stocks AAPL AMZN GOOGL MU (Micron) and a couple of dividend stocks MO Altria PM Phillip Morris My ETF's are centered around the S&P500 , with a whole lot of weighting toward the "Big 10" stocks VOO VOOG VUG MGK (S&P100) And tech XLK FTEC and some QQQ There is a whole lotta overlap on top 25 or so stocks in the S&P500 I would say as far as holdings go it resembles a bell curve with the "BIG 10" at the center of the curve. Predictions for the year ............................. Further widening of the market Mid caps and small caps should catch up by spring But since my portfolio is kinda the big guys, that led the recovery, I don't see me doing as well as the rest of the market Prediction: S&P500 UP 9% this time next year, closes out 2024 at 5200 Prediction: Home Interest Rates Falling to 6.15% by year end Ukrainian Pilots use new F-16's to take out Putin while in his motorcade FINAL PREDICTION: UW Huskies beat Texas Longhorns 34-31 GO DAWG'S
Oldmanram....I am not sure how long I owned HON. I know I had it when I started posting on here over five years ago. I dont keep that sort of record and since I sold it...there is no data on Schwab. So at least 5.5 years perhaps as much as 10-15 or more.
Here is an answer to a question....that I am surprised...has never come up. QUESTION: Why do you own a Schwab SP500 Index Fund rather than a SP500 Index ETF? Simple answer......when I started with the Schwab SP500 Index Fund they did not have an ETF. I have stuck with the "fund" because I dont want to sell the "fund" and end up with capital gains taxes in order to move into the "ETF". I also dont want to have both a SP500 "fund" and "ETF" in my account....it just makes it cluttered and messy. If I was starting today or had less invested my.....CLEAR CHOICE....would be the SP500 ETF. The annual taxes and capital gains are lower due to the structure and how ETF's work. If I ever have a huge chunk of money that is going into the SP500......for example I decide to get out of all individual stocks and just own the SP500,......I will go with the ETF. BUT.....as a great long term investment vehicle for most people.....you can not beat the SP500...either as a "fund" or as an "ETF". Index Fund vs. ETF: What’s the Difference? https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/etf-vs-index-fund-compare
A little bit of.....cold water.....or....a slap in the face. Be careful out there.....dont get all CRAZY. We just had a great year in 2023. it was hard for most investors to NOT do well this year. But....when money is easy and everyone is seeing gains...it is easy to let the old EGO take over and think it is your investing prowess that did it. NO....it was a market boom and a generally rising market this year. SO....stick to your long term investing plan. Do what you have found out over years of investing.....in good and bad markets.....works for you. Stay RATIONAL and REALISTIC. Stick to your long term plan and you will be just fine. In other words dont be surprised if we see many UPs and DOWNs in 2024. Dont be surprised if January does NOT just take off with positive gains. Expect the unexpected.....as usual. I expect a good strong year in 2024.....10% to 20% gains.....but at times....even early in the year....it might be a struggle to get there. SO....I will stay fully invested for the long term as usual. BUT...I will not change anything in my accounts and will not change anything in regards to how I invest for the long term. My......primary goal...will remain the same.....average 10% of more annually for the long term......try to PASSIVELY beat the SP500. Sit, wait, and do nothing.
After a HUGE GAIN year...... Here are some moves investors can make when the market is soaring, financial advisors say https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/31/her...when-the-market-is-soaring-advisors-say-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Key Points The S&P 500 ended the year up 24.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the year with more than a 13% gain. “It is exciting to see healthy, positive returns,” said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and the CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth. What moves should investors make when stocks have soared? Here’s some advice from Cheng and other members of CNBC’s Advisor Council It was a very good year for the stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 ended the year with a 24.2% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than a 13% this year and and the Nasdaq soared 43%. An investor who had $500,000 in the S&P 500 index around 12 months ago, would have roughly $630,000 now, according to an analysis by Morningstar Direct. “It is exciting to see healthy, positive returns,” said certified financial planner Marguerita Cheng, the CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth. What moves should investors make when the market is soaring? Here’s some advice from Cheng and other members of CNBC’s Advisor Council. ‘Don’t chase the market’ Although many investors are seeing their portfolios at all-time highs, they should typically avoid cashing out because of the rally, Cheng said. “I advise clients to remember that the time they are in the market is more important than trying to time the market,” Cheng said. Indeed, over the last 20 or so years, the S&P 500 produced an average annual return of around 6%. But if you missed the 20 best days in the market over that time span by trying to time things to your advantage, your return would shrivel to 0.1%, according to an analysis by Charles Schwab. “The market keeps going up, so even though it’s at a high, it might be even higher in the future,” said CFP Sophia Bera Daigle, founder of Gen Y Planning in Austin, Texas. Yet the recent rally doesn’t mean you should suddenly pour more money into your investments, either, said Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C. “Don’t chase the market,” Johnson said. “Often times retail investors get excessively bullish after the move has already happened, and turn a win into a loss.” The market rally will continue to run, says Veritas Financial’s Greg Branch Afraid that the good times will give way to a recession? It may be helpful to zoom out. Dramatic ups and downs aside, history reveals the market reliably gives more than it takes over long periods. Between 1900 and 2017, the average annual return on stocks has been around 11%, according to calculations by Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. After adjusting for inflation, that average annual return is still 8%. Consider rebalancing, risk tolerance If most of your investments are pinned for retirement, you likely want to stay the course, experts say. That’s because you’re not supposed to touch that money until your post-working years, which, for most people, is far down the road. But if you have stocks in a brokerage account that you’ve been holding for over a year, there may be cases where it does make sense to redirect some of your profits, Bera Daigle said. For example, it can be worth it to do so if you want to pay off debt or don’t have sufficient emergency savings (most advisors recommend salting away three to six months worth of expenses). Amid a market rally, investors should typically “execute the same process as you would do when stocks go down,” Johnson said. “Review your risk tolerance, time horizon and ask if anything has changed,” Johnson said. Big drops and rises in the market can be a good time to rebalance your portfolio, said CFP Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California. “It’s quite possible that the rally of the last few months has created an overweight to stocks versus bonds in a person’s portfolio,” Curtis said. For example, if you want your money allocated 70% to stocks, and 30% to bonds, you may now or at least soon need to sell some stocks and add to your bonds, she added." MY COMMENT As usual evaluate your RISK TOLERANCE and the risk profile of your portfolio. Do they match up? YES....DO NOT.....go crazy and chase after that big score and/or returns. Evaluate your investing performance against a passive vehicle like the SP500. BE REALISTIC AND RATIONAL.
As I was saying.... China's Xi Jinping says Taiwan will 'surely be reunified' in year-end address Xi promised unity 'on both sides of the Taiwan Strait' https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinas-xi-jinping-says-taiwan-surely-reunified-year-end-address "The speech was the second time in a matter of days that Xi addressed the Taiwan issue. Xi also vowed to reunify Taiwan on Tuesday during a symposium in Beijing commemorating the 130th anniversary of the birth of Mao Zedong, the founding father of Communist China." MY COMMENT BUT....this may just be an attempt to influence the coming elections in Taiwan.....who knows. NOTHING....is ever clear cut with China. I find this an interesting issue....but....as I said I plan to DO NOTHING. Whatever happens we will muddle through it as investors....as always.
The SP500 has been on an EPIC RUN UP for 20 years now. Here are the......."total returns".....by year. 2023 +26.29% 2022 (-18.11%) 2021 +28.71% 2020 +18.40% 2019 +31.49% 2018 (-4.38%) 2017 +21.83% 2016 +11.96% 2015 +1.38% 2014 +13.69% 2013 +32.39% 2012 +16.00% 2011 +2.11% 2010 +15.06% 2009 +26.46% 2008 (-37.00%) 2007 +5.49% 2006 +15.79% 2005 +4.91% 2004 +10.88% 2003 +28.68% That is an AMAZING 21 year run for the SP500. Can you say....long term investing. ONLY THREE.....down years out of Twenty one years. And it gets even better when you realize that all those gains and reinvested dividends are compounding over that time. The question.....can YOU beat that string of gains?
Alright, I officially checked my 1 year "performance" for my portfolio: Up 81%. Not bad for doing jack squat. Hopefully 2024 will be the same
That may be a record for 2023.......roadtonowhere08. What is in your portfolio? The only one with a shot at beating that might be Tiresmoke. How did your all chip portfolio do Tiresmoke?
'23 up 57.62% Holdings by value (largest to smallest) headed into '24 SWPPX BA NVDA MSFT AMZN GOOGL TSLA APPL META PLTR NKE COST OMER DM UNH WM My forecast for 2024 is S&P500 to 6800
A TEN YEAR prediction. Is the American dream dead? Gen Z balking at homeownership to rent luxury apartments 64% of Americans are homeowners, a rate lower than that of China and Brazil https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-es...-balking-homeownership-rent-luxury-apartments MY COMMENT and PREDICTION Remember 5-10 years ago when we would constantly see this sort of BALONEY in the media regarding the Millennials? Yes.....Gen Z....might be totally screwed up due to life long screen use and social media....but no matter, they will still. Get married. Have kids. Move to the suburbs. Work a job. Buy a house.
