If the world does not like the outcome of the fall election, where will money flow? Bitcoin? Gold? Silver? Another country? I'm inclined to think Bitcoin is the contrarian play here but I'm not convicted about it. I think China is dead as an alternative to US financial stability. Even Chinese people don't want their money locked away in China but they can't get it out. Europe? Germany? The UK seems dead as a financial stabilizer. Canada is doing everything it can to ruin itself financially with GDP that has shrank in the last decade, even before considering their comedic level of inflation.
I don't know the answer to your question, but money has definitely been flowing into gold and silver for an extended period of time now. In contrast to historic norms, where gold and silver tend to rise and fall somewhat in inverse relation to the general economy and stock markets, gold and silver have continued to rise steadily, almost without correlation to the markets, or even crises and wars, (Israel/Gaze, Russia/Ukraine, etc.). Before someone else states the obvious, yes, the stock markets rise over time. My point is that the graphs which chronicle the rise of both the stock markets and precious metals have historically shown dips in precious metals when markets rise, and rises in precious metals when markets fall, or when there are wars, or other national or global crisis. The ongoing disconnect from this historical norm over the past decade or more has lead some to claim that the 'easy money' policies pursued by the Fed over that same period of time - more than a decade - (until recently when interest rates increased) has been the reason for the disconnect, stating that the surplus of cash has only a limited number of places to go - with stocks and precious metals often being the target. Another school of thought states that many of those with money to invest (including some money managers, banks, brokerages, etc) are fearful that the extended climb of the markets may at some point result in a really serious correction, from which precious metals are seen by many as a safe haven. Again, I don't have the answer to those points of view, either. But I find them interesting.
In general, Bitcoin and precious metals move with, not against, markets. So I don't think you can call them a hedge.
Yes, that's true in RECENT history - that was my point! Historically, prior to the decade plus articial zero and near zero interest rates and "easing" instituted by the Fed Reserve, that was NOT the case. I'm sorry I was not a better communicator, I thought that was the point I was making.
I'm not sure there is even an inverse correlation after the late 70s...would need to dig deeper into it.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion! If you search on keywords gold, silver, precious metals, hedge, recession, etc. then it's clear that in the past these were definitely considered to be what I described them to be - in the past - and that even today, some still consider them that way - even though they no longer rise and fall in inverse correlation to each other. And again, yes, both precious metals and stocks continue to rise over time, it's just that those jagged lines on the charts that displayed their rise over time used to go in opposite directions - temporarily - while over time, both continued to increase.
I don't know if you were trading 08. 9 10 11 12 it was everyone in precious metals they rose fast many made millions. Then they got in stocks 13 forward.
Yes, and the reason they rose fast was because of the 2008 financial crisis. Bad econony / bad stock market / crisis = precious metals go up. Until the past decade or so... maybe even less than that. As to whether I was trading in that timeframe, it depends on your definition of 'trading'. I consider myself a buy-and-hold investor for the most part, but there are opportunities that I avail myself of from time to time. Or occasionally, falter on.
During the financial crises, gold was down initially. Not as sharply as the markets (markets dropped ~40%, gold ~@5%) It rose as the rest of the market recovered.
Our national debt now is due to dems Bill and Obama the community reinvestment act FannienFreddie belly up surprime hell. Trump should say this were crippled from it.
IMO, China is driving Bitcoin. Chinese under Xi have a very hard time moving money out of China. The FED is small potatoes, by comparison. Again, JSMO, Bitcoin cannot be viewed from an American perspective. It is global. I've been a vocal anti-Bitcoin person for years but I'm highly intrigued by El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as the national currency. They want to participate in the global economy. I applaud them for doing so. While I'm not sure they will succeed with Bitcoin, they had nothing to lose by evacuating their colon (Colon was the currency of El Salvador... little joke, just there).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1366899/percent-change-national-debt-president-us/ Reagan, the Bushs, and Trump were awful for the deficit, and both Bushs and Trump inherited a strong economy.
I understood the support for Trump in 2016. He was kind of an outsider, had populist rhetoric, etc. But how could any American vote for him now? He's so obviously a grifter, a conman, a narcissist, and a traitor. He's a loser who's lost at all his businesses, his marriages, his relationships...he's lost every election but one, the candidates he supports get destroyed, he loses court case after court case...and he's such a loser that he tried to overthrow the last election with a fraudulent elector scheme and then some! He's a failure as a man, a leader, and a president. His rhetoric is outrageously incendiary, and his proposed policies are terrible for the country. Practically everyone in his cabinet has said that he is not fit for office and that they will not vote for him. His supporters wanted to hang his vice president and Trump not only did not condemn them but encouraged them! He has so many scandals that one can't even keep up! Not to mention all the foreign ties, his love of dictators, and his defalcation. Voting for him is bad for so many reasons, but fundamentally it is an anti-American, anti-Patriotic vote.
His January 6 actions, including his insistence metal detectors be removed so rioters could walk into the Capital armed during the riot, makes it impossible to consider him anything but a despot. I respect most Republicans. I consider myself a conservative but I must confess to having a soft spot for democracy. Can you imagine if there was documented proof Democrats wanted to send an armed Mob into the Capital building? How would Republicans view Democrats who continued to support a leader who tried to overthrow democracy?
The odd thing in this is that, if Trump is elected in November, I doubt the economy would progress all that different than if Kamala wins. Sure, there will be differences. I just don't think the economic outcomes would vary all that much. Perhaps I am alluding to the big ship, small rudder, notion of presidential impact. Now, I'm not saying there is no difference between presidents. In this way, perhaps democracy is irrelevant to investing? I am not capable of believing democracy will hurt the economy on the long term so freedom and election integrity it remain relevant on some level.
I understand how you feel! I feel the same way. Trouble for me is, I despise both presidential candidates. Also both political parties, and about 90% of the members of Congress, and politicians in general. The vast majority of them are wastes of oxygen in my opinion - unethical and beneath contempt.
The freaks that entered the White House on January 6th were about as much of a threat to "overthrow democracy" (LMAO!!) as the Keystone Cops. Armed? What were they armed with? Clubs? Pitchforks? Cavemen weapons? or medieval? It was a stupid shi-show, but anybody who thinks that those freaks were a real threat to anything except embarrassing themselves and showing the world what a bunch of BUFFOONS we've allowed our government and our "elected leaders" in Washington D.C. (ALL PARTIES and PERSUASIONS!) to become is almost as delusional as those parading around inside the Capitol with Benny Hill that day.
