I see what you are saying, but if we zoom out a bit, does it not still look like the end results still look the same as in previous decades? It seems to me that these illogical reactions to earnings calls are perhaps ways to shake investors into making bad decisions for others to take advantage of. Dunno, but I am not sure the fundamental "game" that true investors have to play has changed all that much if you are willing to look past the idiocy that you so well point out on a regular basis. Perhaps things will fundamentally change in the future like you say it might. In that case, I'll just follow the smart money wherever it goes and learn a new set of rules to play.
Just a quick question, an "off-topic", my curiosity. How do you vote in USA? Beeing present in a vote area I imagine. But can you also vote by mail ou do you have a digital vote?
Every state is different RG. Some mostly vote in person on election day. Some have mail in voting. Many like Texas where I am have early....in person..... voting for a few weeks before the election, plus election day voting. In some states with mail in voting they also have drop boxes where you can put your ballot in a drop box in the weeks leading up to the election. I think every state has old fashioned "absentee voting" where you can request a ballot by mail if you are unable to vote in person.
I TOTALLY AGREE with this little article after the BIG CAP TECH earnings this week and their guidance regarding Capital Spending. BUT......of course I am a NVDA shareholder and...... like any investor...... I am subject to......emotional bias and "Confirmation Bias". Nvidia to reap billions in AI spending as Mag 7 peers ramp investments https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-reap-billions-ai-spending-133300702.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia hasn't reported its third quarter update as yet, but it's nonetheless the clear winner of the megacap earnings season and stands poised to reap billions in spending on new AI technologies and infrastructure over the coming years. Nvidia (NVDA) , which closed out October with a 9.3% gain, well ahead of the 0.5% advance for the Nasdaq benchmark, has added more than $2 trillion in market value this year thanks to the surge in investment in AI tech and its hammerlock on the chip market that powers it. It was also chosen to replace Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on November 8 and, with its now $3.3 trillion in market value, will sit just below Apple (AAPL) as the benchmark's, and the world's second-most valuable company. It's influence on the AI chip market is no less impressive UBS analysts see the four biggest hyperscalers, all of which posted third-quarter earnings this week and form the spine of the global AI-investment race, to spend $267 billion on capital projects tied to the new technologies next year, a 33.5% increase from this year's forecast. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) , Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) , Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) , in fact, are already poised to spend around $200 billion this year alone in what Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called a "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity in generative AI. Amazon pegged its 2024 capital spending at around $75 billion, most of which will "support the growing need for technology infrastructure [primarily Amazon Web Services] as we invest to support demand for our AI services." Meta said this year's bill would rise to between $38 billion and $40 billion, with "significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year." Microsoft, which spent $55.4 billion in the financial year that ended in June, will likely shell out $80 billion this year. Google's tally is forecast at $51 billion. Even Tesla (TSLA) , which is chasing CEO Elon Musk's bold ambitions of a fleet of autonomous robotaxis and self-driving electric vehicles, expects to spend around $11 billion this year "largely because of investments in AI compute." Nvidia's commanding market share And Nvidia — which commands an 80% share of the market for the chips and processors that power not only the massive datasets being trained by the hyperscalers, but also the enterprise customers that would like to apply the technology to everything from restaurant sales to pharmaceutical research — is poised to reap the benefits. CEO Jensen Huang, in fact, described AI demand last month as "insane," while rival chip-sector boss Lisa Su at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) forecast the total addressable market for AI accelerators alone would grow more than 60% annually and reach $500 billion by 2028. Meanwhile, total AI spending, which includes software, hardware and services, is likely to more than double to around $632 billion by 2028 from $235 billion last year, according to IDC estimates. Last year, the entire semiconductor industry, including everything from chips and processors in mobile phones to memory inserts in personal computers, generated $500 billion in sales. CFRA analyst Angelo Zino, however, sees Nvidia as the principal beneficiary as it launches its newest line of chips and processors, dubbed Blackwell, and preps for a next-generation system, called Rubin, in the coming years. "Blackwell will take greater wallet share from hyperscalers amid an AI war in the cloud," Zino said in a recent note. "The supply chain is also confirming the strength of AI demand, improving visibility entering 2025." If you can't beat 'em ... The broader market demand is so compelling that Amazon is getting in on the act by investing in its own high-performance chips, called Trainium, that it can sell directly to clients who may not wish to wait for, or pay for, Nvidia's sought-after products. Amazon told investors on Thursday that some of its cloud customers want "better price performance on their AI workloads" as they scale their operations and look to reduce costs. Microsoft is also working up a new line of AI accelerators, which it calls the Maia 100, to train large-language models. These could both help it wean it from reliance on Nvidia and offer a lower-priced alternative to its Azure cloud customers. The surge in demand, however, has tested the limits of capacity across the supply chain that Zino cites, in a market that remains dominated by only a handful of assemblers and designers. Taiwan Semiconductor, (TSM) the supply-chain linchpin, told investors last month that "our customers' demand far exceeds our ability to supply," a clear reference to Nvidia. TSM posted record quarterly profit, the equivalent of US$10.06 billion, and forecast a full-year revenue growth rate of around 30%. It also pegged its overall capital spending plans at just more than $30 billion for this year and higher still in 2025. Nvidia earnings next up All this points to another monster quarter for Nvidia when later this month it reports sales and profit for the three months ended in October and its outlook for the coming year. Nvidia told investors in late August that it saw current-quarter revenue in the region of $32.5 billion, more than double the tally of the year-earlier period, even as it faced some delays in shipping its new line of Blackwell processors amid design changes and supply-chain snarls. "What we're looking at now is the next wave of AI, and the biggest wave of AI, and this is really all about companies using it to be more productive as well to revolutionize the way they build their products — and the products they build," Huang told CNBC last month. “Everybody wants to have the most, and everybody wants to be first,” Huang told CNBC last month. "Blackwell is in full production, Blackwell is as planned, and the demand for Blackwell is insane."' MY COMMENT I have said many time on here that NVDA is the ONLY stock I have seen in my lifetime that is similar to what I saw with MSFT in their early GLORY YEARS from 1990 to 2000. I consider BOTH as once-in-a-lifetime stocks. FORTUNATELY.....I have had the opportunity in my lifetime to own.....TWO.....once-in-a-lifetime companies. So for me it is....TWICE.....in a lifetime. We are in the very EARLY years of the AI revolution and the AI build out. This is a landmark and singular business event. Companies that are at the forefront of this revolution will do very well over the next ten years. BUT....that does not mean we will skip the usual economic processes. We will.....as usual....see corrections, rallies, normal bull and bear markets, and economic up and down times. My simply......off the top of my head analysis of NVDA going forward......great potential to gain 1000% to 1500% or more over the next TEN YEARS. Of course this is simply an off-the-cuff.....prediction/guess. AND......the future is totally opaque.......what looks like a sure thing now can be totally different tomorrow. I will continue to ride the NVDA wave.......even as the stock continues to engulf my portfolio as my position rises in value. It makes me a little bit uncomfortable to have a single stock DOMINATE my portfolio.....but.....I simply have to go with the......PROBABILITY......that as things stand now NVDA will.....SHOW ME THE MONEY. I guess as a back up.......I do own all the other BIG CAP TECH STOCKS.....GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL......that have the potential to capture MASSIVE gains from the AI revolution. So, I am comfortable that these four companies along with NVDA....will take good care of me over the next ten years. NOTE.....I do not own META or TSLA......and have no current plans to do so. Obviously both these stocks are also well positioned for the AI future....also. I will say that in spite of the above I consider it.......very important.....that my portfolio holds and will continue to hold the SP500 Index Fund, Fidelity Contra fund, and also the non tech stocks that I have....COST, HD, and CMG. AND.....I dont mean to ignore my other stock not mentioned above....PLTR. They are a very young company and the future for them is much more opaque.....but I do like how they have performed so far. Time will tell if they can join the companies above as...... MAGNIFICENT.
PLEASE.....I am NOT trying to tell anyone else what to buy or hold. I am in a position in my life and with my income sources to be a very aggressive investor. I have a very NON-DIVERSE portfolio.....which may not be right for others to follow. BEWARE. You never know what the future holds......I might look back at the post above in five or ten years and say......WHAT AN IDIOT. BUT....that is the purpose of this thread.....to document my investing journey in real time......for BETTER OR WORSE.
AND.....I still say....BEWARE the BLACK SWAN. FOR EXAMPLE......one bad move by China against Taiwan....could change the world. It is TOTAL FALLACY as an investor to think anything is a sure thing.....or set in stone. ALL of us have to continue to be RATIONAL and REALISTIC and aware of the RISK inherent in investing. The FUTURE is always a HUGE UNKNOWN.....in terms of negative market and business events.
HERE is how we are doing so far with EARNINGS. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_110124.pdf Key Information • Earnings So Far: Seventy percent of the companies in the SP500 have now reported, 75% reported a positive EPS surprise, 60% have reported a positive revenue surprise. • Growth In Earnings: The year-over-year earnings growth rate is 5.1% so far for the SP500. We are lining up to see the 5th straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth. • Revisions: As of September 30, the year-over-year earnings growth rate was 4.3%. Seven sectors reported higher earnings today from positive EPS surprises. • Valuation: Forward one year P/E ratio is 21.3. Well above the 5-year average of 19.6. The 10-year average is 18.1.
Well we are open today.....a new week. LOL....I see that most of the MAGNIFICENT stocks are down at the open. Yes....earnings have now been totally discounted as though they never happened. We have seen this same thing over many of the past quarters. AND....all the big averages open in the RED. Of course....it is all....election, election, election today. Lets just get past it and move on to the RATE CUT.
If you want a LOT......I mean REALLY A LOT.....of information about the recent employment reports here you go. October Employment Report: A Hodgepodge Of Noise That Tells Us Little, If Anything https://assets.realclear.com/files/2024/11/2574_employment.pdf MY COMMENT I have no interest in this sort of data other than to understand the short term. It is MEANINGLESS to the long term markets. In six months....a year....five years.....it will be totally forgotten. In fact who cares to read this extremely long report since the headline tells you right up front......it does NOT matter.
About the only thing I care about today......with all the ELECTION NOISE.....is my PLTR earnings today after the bell. Palantir Earnings Provide Litmus Test for 140% AI-Fueled Rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-earnings-litmus-test-140-130009896.html Palantir Earnings Due. 2025 AI Revenue Ramp Up Eyed. Is Palantir Stock A Buy? https://finance.yahoo.com/m/be729a4b-4be9-39c3-b232-f48bab2c5685/palantir-earnings-due-2025.html Palantir (PLTR) Reports Q3: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-pltr-reports-q3-everything-070318937.html
OK.....from a non-political view.....this "stuff" has no place in the business world. The best companies simply ignore this culture warrior "stuff" and focus on selling their product or service and nothing else. I express NO VIEW on whether or not this stuff is good on a social or societal level.....although I do have a view. I dont want to clutter up this thread with this sort of opinion. BUT....from a business standpoint....here is what is happening right now. Retailers brace for DEI blowback in lead-up to election, holiday shopping season https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/retailers-brace-for-dei-blowback-ahead-of-election-holiday.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Retailers are bracing for blowback related to DEI policies in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election and the critical holiday shopping season. Some companies are concerned about attending public DEI events while others are strategizing on how to avoid criticism over their policies and programs. “There’s a clear sentiment in the retail community that nobody wants to get Tractor Supply’d,” one retail industry insider told CNBC. Retailers are facing a tough equation as they head into the all-important holiday shopping season — this time over DEI initiatives. Companies are bracing for blowback related to policies around diversity, equity and inclusion and are hoping to avoid alienating customers who may deem the brands too woke – or not woke enough. Some are tapping outside advisors for advice on how to avoid criticism, while others are opting out of public events on the topic as backlash against equity and inclusion programs grows in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. CNBC spoke with a number of retail industry insiders, strategists and staffers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to do so candidly. “There’s a clear sentiment in the retail community that nobody wants to get Tractor Supply’d,” said one retail industry insider, referring to that company’s decision to walk back a series of DEI initiatives after conservative activist Robby Starbuck criticized the policies online. “Retailers left to their own devices would like to be very proactive on DEI,” said the person. “But now they don’t want any of their views to be public because they want to be able to sell stuff to everybody, and it’s become such a stupid political issue.” The retail industry’s concerns over DEI come after a number of high-profile, consumer-facing companies – including Lowe’s, Tractor Supply, Ford and Molson Coors– walked back some of their equity and inclusion policies in recent months. The changes included ending sponsorships for Pride festivals and cutting ties with the Human Rights Campaign, an LGBTQ+ advocacy group. Across industries, some companies have also cut positions for DEI roles. Between 2019 and 2022, new jobs for chief diversity and inclusion officers spiked nearly 170%, according to a LinkedIn study, but over the last year, new jobs for such roles have fallen while companies like Googleand Meta have cut staffers and downsized programs that fell under DEI. When explaining their decisions to cut back on DEI, some companies, like Lowe’s, cited the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that outlawed affirmative action as a catalyst for reviewing their policies. Privately, many retailers are concerned about losing customers and becoming the subject of conservative backlash, industry insiders told CNBC. Last year, Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light and Target faced severe blowback for marketing campaigns and product collections geared toward the LGBTQ community and saw sales fall as a result. As retailers prepare for a potentially less-than-stellar holiday shopping season, they want to ensure they don’t do or say anything that could end up having the same effect. Concerns about public events The growing concern around public DEI efforts, especially during a highly politicized election year, has cast a pall over certain industry events. In late September, the Retail Industry Leaders Association hosted its annual summit for corporate communications professionals. This year, the event was tied together with RILA’s Diversity Equity & Inclusion Leaders Council, which led some retailers to be concerned about the optics of attending, according to a person who was present and spoke with participants who expressed reservations. RILA declined to comment. One former retail executive, who didn’t attend the event but frequently advises publicly traded retailers, said it makes sense that some companies would be concerned about attending because “the optics of it are maybe not so great.” “The tide is definitely turning against DE&I initiatives,” said the former executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so they could do so candidly. “I do think it has a lot to do with the election. ... If you’re a CEO and you’re looking at, is [Donald] Trump going to win, or is [Kamala] Harris going to win, and you’re self-serving … then I can see why you need to hedge your bets.” The person called it a “no-win situation,” especially for major retailers with large customer bases that span both sides of the political spectrum. Preparing for backlash At a top New York City advisory firm, one strategist recently told CNBC that a primary concern facing their retail clients is DEI and how they should be preparing for potential backlash, or how they can avoid it altogether by preemptively walking back certain policies and practices. Some of the discussions included whether to participate in annual gay pride parades and how to communicate any policy changes to staff. “Retailers are constantly concerned about what they put out there. I think there’s a higher pressure on them,” said Sonia Lapinsky, head of consulting firm AlixPartners’ global fashion practice. “If you think about the time of year, they’re going into their biggest selling season right now. If we look at a moment in time, the last thing they want to do is potentially upset consumers or generate some bad publicity about what they’re doing or not doing. So they’re highly sensitive and highly concerned.” Lapinsky pointed to a recent consumer sentiment survey that AlixPartners published, which showed less than half of millennial consumers considered it very important for a retailer to embody their values in messaging, interactions and marketing. “Then we go down from there. So 45% for millennials, less than 40% for Gen Z and Gen X, even though we think we hear Gen Z cares about this, and then boomers was 16%,” said Lapinsky. However, that doesn’t mean that retailers shouldn’t be thinking about DEI when it comes to their business strategies, said Lapinsky. “If I’m designing a product line or even a service or something like that, and I don’t have kind of a wide representation of people who have been creating that, I think I’m very quickly going to miss the pulse on what my consumer thinks about,” said Lapinsky. “So even if they’re saying they don’t need to see it coming through in messaging, they will need to see it coming through in product that resonates and experiences that resonate and service levels that resonate with them, and that’s going to differ based on who they are and where they come from.”" MY COMMENT Simply focus on your business model and EXECUTE. Leave the social, cultural, and political comments and actions to groups that are set up for that purpose. I dont want any business that I own to be out there waving the flag......for or against..... this sort of issue. Doing so shows a total LACK OF FOCUS on your primary business as management....making money by selling your product or service to the most people possible. There is no need for business to take a stand on either side of this issue.....so SHUT UP.....and do your job as company management. My view....the best managers......are inscrutable..... impossible to know where they stand on this sort of issue or any political issue. In other words they are TOTALLY focused on business and at the same time are FAIR in their hiring and treatment of workers. My view.....any policy that leads to NOT hiring the best, most qualified person for a job is IDIOCY. BUT.....this assumes a fair and honest employment process that complies with ALL laws on equal job access and discrimination.
The next two days will be a total MESS for the markets. Even the financial media and business TV shows are all about the election for the next couple of days. So.....I will continue to IGNORE IT ALL and do nothings as usual.
While I have been IGNORING everything today....I just noticed that now the SP500 and NASDAQ are now GREEN. They are firming up nicely. AND.....the Ten Year Treasury is nicely DOWN today. BUT....I also see that I have only three stocks up today.....NVDA, COST, and HD. AND..... I have no doubt that I am in the GREEN since COST and NVDA are my two largest holdings by far. So that is where things stand after the first market hour of the day....the extreme short term. YES.....I remain fully invested for the long term as usual.....that is what counts for me.
As I have mentioned before I am on the board of directors of a family Oil &Gas & Real Estate corporation. We own various parcels of land and attached mineral rights. We also own mineral rights on many other parcels of land that we do not own the land itself. All are in the Permian Basin. The corporation was started by my Grandfather. It was set up as a vehicle to pass the property and mineral rights on to his children. He had five children including my mom. The current management of the company is now still in the hands of the five families of his five children. The board and management is composed of one representative from each of the five families. A few weeks ago I and one of my cousins, that is also on the board, raised the issue of selling off all the land and mineral rights and terminating the company. There is little actual income annually after CPA charges and taxes. And....most importantly....after the current generation of owners....compassed of 13 cousins.....it will be a nightmare of many, many, Grandchildren and Great Grandchildren owning the company with a small number of shares scattered among many people. I was surprised that all of us agreed that we should begin the process to end the company. So we are now looking into what will need to be done to sell the land and sell all the mineral rights. Since most of the land is undeveloped desert land in New Mexico....I dont think it is worth much as real property. Probably the entire assets of the corporation will bring about $200,000 to $300,000. After 70+ years....it looks like we will finally pull the plug. It is time....we have held on for all those years thinking that some day it would all pay off....but it is just going to be a big nightmare and mess going forward. We have thought about the potential for Lithium discovery and production in the Permian Basin in addition to the oil and gas. BUT....we are all in our late 60's and 70's now and are going to just bite the bullet and sell.
NOW.....this is how you run a business. Out of the box thinking to generate additional business and billings. Ambulance hits Oregon cyclist, rushes him to hospital, then sticks him with $1,800 bill, lawsuit says https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-...n-sticks-him-with-1800-bill-lawsuit-says.html
Markets were a WASTE OF TIME today as expected....due to election turmoil. Probably more of the same tomorrow. I closed today with a small gain in my stocks. I was held GREEN by only three stocks....COST, HD, and NVDA. I also managed to beat the SP500 by 0.37%. Moving on to election day tomorrow......and....more of the same meaningless market.
Here are the PLTR earnings. Palantir shares surge on rosy revenue outlook https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/palantir-pltr-q3-earnings-report-2024.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Palantir boosted its full-year revenue view, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. The company recently gained entry into the S&P 500 stock index. Palantir shares jumped 13% in extended trading on Monday after the data analytics software maker reported robust third-quarter results and revenue guidance. Here’s how the company did compared to LSEG consensus estimates: Earnings per share: 10 cents adjusted vs. 9 cents expected Revenue: $726 million vs. $701 million expected “We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down,” Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp wrote in the company’s earnings release. Palantir’s revenue grew 30% year over year in the quarter. Net income of $143.5 million, or 6 cents per share, was up from $71.5 million, or 3 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago. Karp called out the adoption of artificial intelligence in the company’s U.S. government customer base. “The growth of our business is accelerating, and our financial performance is exceeding expectations as we meet an unwavering demand for the most advanced artificial intelligence technologies from our U.S. government and commercial customers,” Karp said in a letter to shareholders. With respect to guidance, Palantir called for fourth-quarter revenue of $767 million to $771 million. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had been looking for $741.4 million. Palantir bumped up its revenue range for all of 2024. It now sees $2.805 billion to $2.809 billion, compared with $2.742 billion to $2.750 billion in August. The new range implies a 26% growth rate for the year. LSEG’s consensus was $2.76 billion. The company is targeting over $687 million in U.S. commercial revenue for the year, implying about 24% of the total. “It is the speed with which institutions in the United States, in particular, have adopted our platforms and artificial intelligence capabilities more broadly that has been, and we believe will continue to be, the driver of our growth,” Karp wrote in a shareholder letter. “As America once again forges ahead, our allies and partners in Europe are being left behind.” Palantir aims for $1.054 billion to $1.058 billion in adjusted operating income for the year. That’s above the $980.0 million consensus among analysts that StreetAccount polled. In September S&P Global announced that Palantir would join the S&P 500 stock index. As of Monday’s close, Palantir shares were up 141% in 2024, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq had gained 21%. Executives will discuss the results on a conference call with analysts starting at 5 p.m. ET." MY COMMENT NICE.....a good earnings BEAT and a CEO that knows how to play the......guidance game. It is pretty stupid how the other big cap tech companies downplay their guidance. This leads the markets to doubt the numbers and it tanks the stock short term. If these CEO's were smart they would just put out guidance numbers that were just enough above the analysts to create some excitement.....but are beatable. After all.....they just about always beat expectations lately anyway. Plus........a good upbeat presentation........... and legitimate EXCITEMENT from the CEO goes a long way to creating the right expectations.
What? I can't hear you over the sound of my taking a 2nd on our house to go all in for NVDA!!! Please speak up!!!!!!!
Here is the markets today......on ELECTION day. Stocks Gain as Wall Street Waits on US Election: Markets Wrap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-cautious-election-knife-224806193.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- US stocks climbed and the dollar weakened as voting got underway in a presidential race that will have major consequences for the future of economic policy. While markets looked relatively subdued, Wall Street was also preparing for a long night of potentially contentious ballot counting ahead and sharp swings no matter the outcome. Assets like the Mexican peso and Bitcoin, seen as some of the clearest reads on the election mood, and volatility measures for Treasuries and the S&P 500 were being closely monitored. “What you can see across markets now is that no one is ready to take clear investment positions on the election,” said Alexandre Hezez, chief investment officer at Groupe Banque Richelieu in Paris. “The uncertainty is palpable across all asset classes. There’s such a massive gap between the program of the two candidates that caution is of the essence.” The S&P 500 added 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose three basis points to 4.31%. Palantir Technologies Inc. surged 14% on record profit and high demand for its artificial intelligence software. Wall Street’s Great Election Trades Now Face the Moment of Truth There is a track record for stocks to do well on presidential voting day. The S&P 500 finished higher in nine of the past 11 election trading sessions in data going back to 1928, excluding some years when the NYSE was shut, according to an analysis by Carson Group. The index had an average gain of 0.9%. In the most recent example, the index posted a 1.8% advance on Nov. 3, 2020. Still nerves on Wall Street were running high, given that it’s been one of the most dramatic and tightly contested American presidential campaigns in modern history. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said there’s a possibility of a burst of volatility in the aftermath of the election, but also pointed to the resilient US economic backdrop as likely to support equities in the long run. The team of strategists led by Andrea Ferrario said there’s just an 18% chance of a bear market in the next 12 months — even when taking into account the risks posed by Tuesday’s presidential election. “Equities should be able to digest higher bond yields as long as they are driven by better growth,” the Goldman strategists wrote in a note. Some of the attention in markets may shift later in the week to the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Thursday, and Jerome Powell’s press conference, where he’ll give details on the path for interest rates. “The big question is, can the Fed deliver four to five cuts in 2025, or is there this fear that inflation will stop the Fed halfway through its tightening cycle?” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz SE. The latter “will send shockwaves through the US economy.” All of that adds up to a market primed for volatility this week. Options data suggests a 1.8% move in either direction for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, according to Citigroup’s head of equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser." MY COMMENT Lots of semi-opinion fluff above.....but....in reality nothing going on other than election jitters. AND....it all likely-hood most people are probably tired of the whole thing and just want to get it over with. It is nice to see the BIG GAIN so far today with PLTR and the markets in the green.
