The Long Term Investor

Speaking of PLTR......WOW.

Currently at $50.37......up by 21.55% in a single day. Zukodany is dancing today.

 

And the above is based on good earnings....but I cant say that the PLTR earnings were any better or even as good as MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, META or TSLA.

Yet we did not see this sort of jump in the above following earnings......and in fact.......most of these stocks were SIGNIFICANTLY PUNISHED following earnings based on CEO and company guidance......that was actually OK.....but not delivered with ENERGY and EXCITEMENT for the future.

In any RATIONAL world and market we would have seen a BIG JUMP UP in most if not all of the big cap tech stocks above following earnings and continuing now.

 

SMCI.....Super Micro......will be giving a "business update" after the close today. They are now on the bubble of being DELISTED due to their inability to get earnings out and their ALLEGED financial and accounting issues.

A SAD story of a company that has imploded. Now the question is can they survive.

The CEO will probably come on tonight and announce that from here on due to all the issues they are dropping the word "SUPER" from their name. They will now just be called "MICRO" going forward.

Super Micro Faces Potential Delisting, S&P 500 Removal Amid Auditor Woes

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-faces-delisting-p-130822060.html

At least.....Boeing, Starbucks, and Intel are feeling better about themselves in comparison. Misery loves company.

 

Speaking of Boeing.

Boeing strike ends as workers accept new contract

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-workers-vote-wage-deal-110348817.html

A company that I now have ZERO interest in. The issues and problems go way beyond the strike.

 

YES.......since NVDA is a typical topic on this thread........the PLTR earnings and commentary on the AI BOOM......is yet another BIG VOTE for the future of NVDA.......short and medium term.

BUT.....I have no doubt that all the analysts and financial media will nit-pick the NVDA earnings to death and will jaw-bone the stock down as usual.

 

I have not looked at my account today....but I know I am doing WELL. I see from the ticker that all my stocks are up so far today except for CMG. A good looking day in the markets.

Speaking of CMG.....I am willing to give that "training wheels position" a long time to perform for me. I like that company and their market demographics. They are showing a little bit of struggle over the time that I have owned them....but I will give them a good.....at least....two years to see how they do.

I really want them to become a long term holding. I also DO NOT expect them to perform like a big cap tech stock. I am ok with them doing solid and steady growth of their business.

I understand that the restaurant business is extremely soft right now and in flux. We see it every day in the restaurants we go to for lunch. Yesterday we were talking to the waitress at one of our favorite places for lunch. They STILL have moderate prices and a HUGE menu of great down-home choices including all day breakfast. For example......our bill yesterday for a big salad with grilled chicken and the HUGE meatloaf plate Monday special, plus drinks was only about $25.

The place was doing ok business but was below the usual former lunchtime crowd in the past when it would be packed every day. The waitress was telling us how she had worked there over 20 years and that over the past SIX MONTHS the business was as slow as she can remember.

Lately we are seeing significant drops in business at ALL the restaurants we go to daily.

 

As you can see above....there really is ZERO financial news today. Not even much mention of the FED and their upcoming meeting. It is the SILENCE of ELECTION DAY.

 

OK....that is what I like to see. I just looked at my account and I am NINE for NINE......GREEN today. The markrets are having a nice little RELIEF RALLY today with the end of the election in sight.

PLTR is KICKING ASS......now up by over 22% in a single day. I love it.....not because I am making money.....but, because much of the coverage that I saw pre-earnings was negative or semi-negative......saying that the company was overpriced. WRONG AGAIN......as usual.

ZUKODANY....is probably out shopping for a private jet today.

 

That was a really NICE day today in the markets. Eight of nine stocks GREEN for me. CMG was my only red stock. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.67%.

Almost makes me wish that election day was every day. HELL NO........NO WAY.

 

WELL......well. the election is over with. Can you feel the......JOY? the markets certainly can. The futures are through the roof. the DOW.....+1391 points. SP500....+137 points. The NASDAQ....+350 points.

Obviously the markets....at least the futures.......are CELEBRATING the landslide win by Donald Trump. I see that the Senate is now under the control of the Republicans. I dont know about the House since most of the coverage is NOT updated from late last night.

I have no doubt.....simply focusing on what is best for the markets and investors and business.....that this is the best outcome. If your side LOST......at least you can have some hope of......MAKING SOME MONEY......as a consolation prize.

 

Ok everyone.....take a few days to drown your election SORROW.....or......CELEBRATE.

Than it is back to LIFE.....your life and your money. You can waste your time obsessing over a bunch of politicians.....or....you can get on with providing for yourself and your family. The real job for most people is........taking care of YOUR family.....the present and the future. Nothing more....nothing less.

 

I like this little article.

Some Things I Don’t Believe About Investing

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/some-things-i-dont-believe-about-investing/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"As Charlie Munger liked to say, “Invert, always invert.”

Here are some things about investing that I don’t believe:

I don’t believe there is a sole way to invest. Everyone has a different emotional make-up and lesser version of themself. Plus, experiences and circumstances can shape your attitudes towards risk and return.

There are a lot of strategies that can work. You just have to find the one that works for you and then stick with it regardless of what everyone else is doing.

Easier said than done.

I don’t believe anyone has the ability to predict what’s going to happen next with regularity. Hedge fund managers can’t do it. Economists can’t do it. Investment strategists can’t do it. I can’t do it. You can’t do it.

And that’s OK. Everyone’s bad at predicting the future because predicting the future is hard.

I do believe you can prepare for a wide range of outcomes without predicting what those outcomes will be in advance.

I don’t believe politics should ever play a role in your investment decisions. Partisan politics feels like they are infused in everything these days. It’s impossible to avoid.1

Presidents get too much credit when the economy is strong and too much blame when the economy stumbles. Politicians don’t control the economy, stock market, gas prices or grocery prices.

Here are the total returns from the past four presidential election dates:

• Election day 2008 +675% (14% annualized)
• Election day 2012 +400% (14% annualized)
• Election day 2016 +207% (15% annualized)
• Election day 2020 +81% (16% annualized)

You can believe what you want to believe about politics but those beliefs have no place in your portfolio.

I don’t believe investing is ever easy. You can make it simpler but investing is hard. There’s no shame in admitting that.

I don’t believe there is a perfect portfolio. It’s only known with the benefit of hindsight.

I don’t believe you should make investment decisions based on what Warren Buffett is doing. There were stories recently about a record cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway:


Some people think it’s time to start worrying about the stock market because Buffett is getting more defensive. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t but that’s not the point.

I’m a huge Buffett fan.

I just don’t believe a 94-year-old billionaire stock-piling cash in his insurance conglomerate has the same time horizon and risk profile as your 401k or brokerage account.

I don’t believe you need to outperform to achieve financial success. Alpha sounds great and all but investors who are able to earn the market return without underperforming their own funds is a worthy goal to me.

Just don’t underperform yourself.

I don’t believe buy & hold ever truly dies. Every time the stock market crashes or goes sideways for an extended period of time, pundits are quick to bury long-term investing as a viable strategy.

It would be like asking someone with the flu, “You don’t look so good. Are you dead?”

Buy and hold just goes into hibernation at times. Same thing with eulogies about the 60/40 portfolio.

Buy and hold wouldn’t work in the long run if it didn’t have the occasional dry spell in the short run.

Nothing works all the time.

I don’t believe following the news makes you a better investor. I’m a markets junkie. I love following this stuff. But there’s a big difference between interesting and actionable.

If it’s already in the headlines you probably can’t make money from it.

I could give you headlines from the future and you still probably wouldn’t be able to turn a profit.

Most of the stuff we spend our time worrying about in the short-term won’t make a lick of a difference in the long-term.

The news is already making you miserable. Don’t let it make you lose money too.

I don’t believe risk ever goes away. Investing is an act of trade-offs and regret-swapping. You trade one risk for another.

And then you let the chips fall where they may."

MY COMMENT

Pretty much the long term message of this thread above. It is really that simple. Although most people can NOT keep it simple....their brain fools them into complexity.

 

REMEMBER.....probably one of the WORST things you can do as an investor is let your politics influence your view of the markets and companies that are available for you to invest in.

FOCUS on what you can control. FOCUS on the long term. Focus on fundamental financial data.
Focus on YOURSELF.

 

HERE is the......INVESTING......story of the day.

Dow futures surge 1,300 points, Russell 2000 futures jump 6% as Trump defeats Harris

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were poised for a booming rally Wednesday as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,346 points, or about 3.2%. S&P 500 futures gained 2.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.7%. The last time the blue-chip Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022.

NBC News projects that Trump will defeat his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, after winning 276 Electoral College votes, including key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Follow CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.

Investments seen as beneficiaries under a Trump presidency erupted as the former president appeared set to claim victory. Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares surge 13% in premarket trading. Bank shares got a boost with JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo all jumping at least 6%. Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000, also perceived as a beneficiary under Trump, jumped 4%.

Bitcoin, which could benefit from relaxed regulation, soared to an all-time high of $75,000. The dollar index climbed to its highest level since July on the belief that Trump’s proposed tariffs against major U.S. trading partners would boost the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 4.43% on speculation Trump’s proposed tax cuts and other spending plans would spark economic growth, but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group
, a social media company closely tied to Trump, surged a whopping 37% in premarket trading.

“For now, investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets, as seen in the overnight market action,” David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group. “There is also an assumption that M&A activity will pickup and that more tax cuts are coming or the existing ones will be extended. This creates a strong backdrop for stocks.”

In the race for Congress, NBC New projects that Republicans will win back the Senate. Leading up to election, Democrats were expected to take control of the House, but so far it was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a so-called red sweep. A Republican wave could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.

“It looks like a Trump presidential win but also a win for Republicans in House and Senate. If that happens, you’re going to see the U.S. economy really taking off,” Mark Mobius, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund chairman, told CNBC early Wednesday.

The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark’s 2024 gains to more than 21%.

China stock ETF drops amid Trump tariff fears

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
dropped more than 2% in the premarket after Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. Trump’s victory stoked fears of higher tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S.

Russell 2000 smallcap futures surge nearly 6.5% on confidence in domestic-led, rapid economic growth

Index futures on the Russell 2000 index
, the benchmark for smallcap stocks, jumped nearly 6.5% in early premarket trading Wednesday, borne of confidence that domestically-oriented economic growth will expand more rapidly, corporate tax rates will stay low and borrowing rates will come down now that former President Donald Trump secured a second term in office.

Early gains in smallcaps are roughly twice the nearly 3% rise in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and about three times the premarket gain in S&P 500 index futures.

Among individual stocks that are rising in early trading and helping to lift the smallcap index are private prison operators Geo Group , up 24%, and CoreCivic, higher by more than 21%, Qualys, ahead 19%, Revolv Group, rising almost 19% and CleanSpark, which added more than 14%.

Cryptocurrency-related companies are also helping drive smallcaps higher, with Riot Platforms, Bit Digital and MARA Holdings all higher by more than 10% in premarket, and Spirit Airlines also up more than 10% on expectations of less regulation and a possible revived merger with Frontier Group."

MY COMMENT

Unfortunately the futures are not the real markets. BUT....it does look like a good end to the week for the markets over the next three days......SHOW ME THE MONEY.
.

 

I certainly consider this good news as an investor in BIG CAP TECH. Constantly attacking the greatest USA companies is IDIOCY. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Trump expected to shift course on antitrust, stop Google breakup

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-expected-shift-course-antitrust-132840415.html

 

SO.....moving forward we now jump right back into it with the FED. They will now be meeting for a couple of days and tomorrow are expected to announce another RATE CUT.

The bond vigilantes are doing their thing and driving up the Ten Year Yield....short term. BUT.....I doubt they can keep it up for long.....in the face of a rate cut campaign by the FED over the next 1.5 years.

I have ZERO concern about the Ten Year Yield or any of the short term bond action. Although this will be a HUGE FEAR-MONGERING issue over the next few months.

 

The other HUGE issue that will be pushed by the daily FEAR-MONGERS......the media.....will be tariffs. In the end they will not matter much to the markets or investors.

First......Most of the tariff talk is just negotiating strategy. In the end there will be deals cut and for the most part those deals with make our economy stronger.

Second......we have had many of the previous tariffs STILL in force for the past 4 years. So in reality there will not be much actual change.

 

AND.....we open to a HUGE RALLY. Now the question is will it have legs beyond the first few hours of the market day.

I would not be surprised to see this rally last through the morning. As to the afternoon.......I would be surprised to see these massive gains hold. I think we will close with good gains......but....how much will be up in the air later in the day.

It will all depend on short term traders and profit taking. I definately hear the Jingle Bells off in the distance. Looks like we now have everything lined up for a really nice year end....SANTA RALLY.

We have now eliminated the FED as a factor in the markets. We have now eliminated the ELECTION as a drag on the markets. Earnings have come in very nicely....even though the markets have disrespected them. NVDA is yet to report and everything that we are seeing from other tech companies regarding AI is VERY positive for NVDA.

Yes....the ten Year Yield is up at 4.464%. Bitcoin is BOOMING at $73,550.

I am going to have to log into my old Coinbase account and see how much my.......tiny little slice of one bitcoin......is now worth......perhaps between $1000 and $1500. Too bad I did not hang on to my ONE Bitcoin.

I think I probably own about.......1/60......of one bitcoin. But I am not sure.....I have not looked at it in over a year or two. I will have some real money in bitcoin when it gets up to about......$6MILLION per coin. I guess I will be waiting for a while.