The Long Term Investor

Same for me TireSmoke. I will add to PLTR any time I have some small amount of money available. I dont have money to add any significant number of shares right now.

I will hopefully have about $4000 coming in some time over the next month or two. If it happens it will ALL go into PLTR. I need to get that position up some in my primary account.

I have PLTR established as a FULL position in my siblings account and in my daughters and son-in laws accounts. BUT.....no money to do so in MY account yet. Oh well, it will give me more time to watch it....while other family members enjoy the gains.

 

I just looked and I have a BIG gain so far today....but....it is not any larger than a typical BIG gain day. I was hoping for more based on how much the averages are up....yes GREED.

When I looked I had two stocks in the RED....COST and HD. Although this post is outdated by about ten minutes.

 

BASKING IN THE GLOW.......yes.....THE GOLDEN GLOW of the markets today.

 

I had a nice BIG, BIG, gain today. In spite of AAPL and HD being in the RED. I also managed to beat the SP500 today by 0.08%.

I also hit an all time high. NICE.

 

I like this little article.

The bull market in US stocks is just starting, Evercore says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-us-stocks-just-124043358.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) — The US stocks rally is nowhere near done, according to Evercore ISI strategists, who see Donald Trump’s plans to slice through red tape propelling the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) another 11% through the middle of next year.

History shows the bull market is “still an infant,” Julian Emanuel wrote in a note. “This market will be driven higher by the policy prospect of deregulation in DC,” he said, setting a price target for the index of 6,600 points by end-June 2025.

In the past 100 years, the benchmark gauge has averaged a 152% gain over 50 months during bull markets, research by Emanuel’s team shows. In the latest case, the index has rallied 65% since hitting a low in October 2022, with technology heavyweights driving the bulk of the advance.

And though stock valuations already look lofty, “expensive has a history of getting more expensive and lasting longer with greater gains,” Emanuel said.



The S&P 500 surged to a record on Wednesday after Trump’s presidential win as his plans for loser regulation and lower corporate taxes were seen boosting company earnings. The Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) of small-cap stocks hit a three-year high on speculation those firms will benefit more from Trump’s protectionist stance.

Seasonal trends into the year end also bode well for stocks more broadly. The S&P 500 has gained an average 4.1% in the fourth quarter in the past 20 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — among the most notable bearish voices on US stocks last year — said this week that the benchmark can keep climbing into the final stretch of the year."

MY COMMENT

As we have seen since the election of John Kennedy.....lower taxes, less regulation, less bureaucracy.....is STRONGLY POSITIVE for stocks and the economy. As investors we will benefit.....as will the BULL MARKET.

AND.....the good news for government.....the same items....especially lower taxes results in.....INCREASED.....tax revenue for government.

Investors will have much to CELEBRATE going forward.....with the usual corrections and soft spots and perhaps even a black swan once in while thrown in.

BUT.....If "YOU" Think differently......I invite you to sell your holdings and put your money where your mouth is. I doubt many people will be doing that. That is how investing works....in the end it is very personal and individual. Everyone can and should do what they think is the best for themselves.

 

A little economic news today.....not that I really care.

US weekly jobless claims increase marginally; unit labor costs growth strong

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-134104983.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, suggesting no material change in the labor market and reinforcing views that hurricanes and strikes had resulted in job growth almost stalling in October.

Though the labor market is easing, wage pressures are showing signs of not abating at the same pace, casting a shadow on the inflation and interest rate outlook. Unit labor costs increased at solid clip in the third quarter, other data from the Labor Department showed on Thursday.

Economists said the strong rise in labor costs, which was accompanied by a sharp upward revision to the second-quarter data, could worry Federal Reserve officials, who were wrapping up a two-day policy meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later on Thursday, lowering its policy rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range.

"Unit labor costs growth is the single biggest determinant of labor-intensive core services prices," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. "Unless unit labor costs growth slows again, it will be a lot harder for Fed officials to claim that inflation can be sustained at 2%."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended Nov. 2, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 221,000 claims for the latest week.

Unadjusted claims rose 10,827 to 212,274 last week. They were boosted by a 4,278 jump in filings in California. Applications rose by 3,563 in Michigan and shot up 1,927 in Ohio, more than offsetting significant drops in Florida and Georgia.

Employment growth slowed sharply last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, the fewest since December 2020. That aligned with a surge in claims in early October as Hurricane Helene disrupted economic activity in the U.S. Southeast region. Applications stayed elevated through the middle of last month after Hurricane Milton lashed Florida.

A strike by factory workers at Boeing, which forced the planemaker to implement rolling furloughs, also weighed on payrolls in October. The disruptions from the hurricanes have almost faded and the striking workers have gone back to work after agreeing to a new contract this week, paving the way for an acceleration in job growth in November.

"New claims are signaling the weak October payroll print was likely an aberration driven by storms and strikes and that we should see a rebound in November," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan. "The influence of Hurricane Helene and Milton on initial claims also now looks to be largely gone."

INFLATION BACK IN FOCUS

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.892 million during the week ending Oct. 26, the claims report showed. The Boeing-related furloughs are mostly keeping the so-called continuing claims elevated.

"The settlement of the Boeing strike will bring down the number of continuing claims as soon as next week's report," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "There is no call for radical monetary easing in today's figures, or in any labor market indicator for that matter."

The Fed embarked on its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut in September, the first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020. It hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023 to curb high inflation.

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields were higher as investors continued to digest Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election that has fueled fears his economic policies could stoke inflation.

Concerns about inflation were amplified by a separate report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics showing unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a solid 1.9% rate in the July-September quarter after an upwardly revised 2.4% pace of expansion in the second quarter. Labor costs were previously reported to have edged up at a 0.4% pace in the second quarter.

The revisions reflected annual upgrades to national accounts data published in September, which showed stronger income and overall economic growth than previously estimated.

Labor costs increased at a 3.4% rate from a year ago, up from a 3.2% pace in the second quarter.

"At this pace, unit labor costs are incompatible with a return to 2% inflation in the context of stable profit margins and the Fed is going to have to rethink how much room it has to lower interest rates," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.

MY COMMENT

WHATEVER. This data is so corrupt, distorted, and short term that it is meaningless. In addition now......after the election.....there will be a different environment in government.....so pre-election data is irrelevant.

We are most likely looking at a new FED head....soon. So much of the economic thinking and data....in terms of the FED..... is basically out the window....for better or worse.

I just about used the term......"economic clarity"....in the sentence above. Than I realized that that phrase is ridiculous. there is NEVER economic clarity......in fact in my view ALL the economic data is opaque and distorted and NEVER reliable.

 

Speaking of the FED.....we are going to see a new chair of the FED.....we are also going to see a new make up to the committee over the next years.

Lets hope two things:

1. That the rate cuts continue through 2025. I have no doubt that we are going to see a rate cut this week and in December.

2. That reality will rule......and the FED will ditch the RIDICULOUS and UNSUPPORTED 2% inflation target in favor of a HISTORICALLY NORMAL.....3-4% target rate.

 

For any FED watchers on here.

Fed expected to cut rates again as Powell looks to avoid surprises following Trump victory

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...prises-following-trump-victory-110006007.html

 

NOW....what counts......THE MARKETS ARE BOOMING....today.

We.....long term rational and realistic, fundamental based, investors.....are doing very well over the course of the current BULL MARKET,......this year,.....and...over the past two days.

The BIG AVERAGES are ALL showing big gains and strength today.....same as yesterday.

Imagine if you were a market timer or trader and happened to be out of the market the past couple of days.

This is the CRITICAL COMPONENT of being a long term investor. This is why I am FULLY INVESTED.....all the time. No one can predict when and why the markets will suddenly BOOM. AND....if you miss out on the BOOM days.....your results will massively under-perform.

 

AND.....ALL of us that are long term investors and in the markets......ARE....making good money....regardless of our politics.

I would say one of the WORST things any investor can do is let politics influence their investing.

Business is business. Investing is investing.

I try to NEVER allow my social or political views influence.....business or investing..... either one.

As a former business owner......I NEVER....allowed any social, political, or cultural issue to seep into what I was doing. In fact in business and music....I doubt there was anyone that knew or had a clue what my thinking was.

I associated with people that ranged from extreme conservative to extreme liberal.....and got along well with ALL of them.

That is a BIG ISSUE with the Social Media today....people way over-share.

 

My current......."FEELING"......we are likely to see a HUGE RALLY to year end. From the open yesterday to year end.....I "see"....us adding another 8% to 12% onto the year to date gains.

If this happens it will end up being a HISTORIC year for investors that have FAITH in the POWER of long term investing.

The one issue that I see between now and year end is the Christmas and Holiday shopping season and results. I think the consumer will continue to be strong....but....the time span between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year is very short....slightly over 3 weeks. As a result...... I see many retailers that are FULL ON CHRISTMAS....already. BUT...I dont think most consumers are engaged......right now.

 

OK....as I have been bragging on the markets.....the DOW.....has now turned RED.

 

At this point in the day.....I have not checked my account....but I know I am doing well. I have a single stock in the RED at this moment....PLTR.

AND....as to PLTR.....they have had an epic run up lately....so nothing wrong with a little profit taking and consolidation of the recent gains. The action in the stock lately has certainly propelled it even more into the news and recognition by investors. Not a bad thing for share holders.

 

RIDING THE WAVE......AND....ENJOYING THE RIDE.