The Long Term Investor

Today we saw full on the media insanity and dishonesty.

Take PLTR for example....it went down for two reasons....defense department cuts and the CEO planing to do about $1.2BILLION in stock sales over 2025.

BOTH....of these story lines are basically UNTRUE....as they were told in the media.

First...I searched for articles with DETAIL on the defense cuts. What i saw showed pretty clearly that anything PLTR is doing is highly unlikely to be cut. In fact the TRUTH is that what they do is highly likely to be rewarded even more as the defense department tries to cut out DEI and all the other social "stuff" they are going to cut.

It is highly likely that PLTR will greatly benefit from the emphasis on "war fighting" that is going to happen to defense.

EVERYTHING in the media about the defense cuts....if you look deeply into where the cuts will be....was TOTAL speculative BS. It is not hard to find accurate articles that detail the exact nature of what the cuts will be and how unlikely it is that PLTR will be impacted.

AS to the CEO stock sales of just over $1BILLION in 2025......not just UNTRUE in terms of how the media pushed this.....but when you look at the actual context of the stock sales it is borderline DISHONEST how the media played this story.

HERE.....is the TRUTH.

Palantir (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp to Sell $1.2 Billion of Company Stock

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-sell-1-2-billion-of-company-stock-1034381909

"Palantir Technologies (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp has moved to sell $1.2 billion worth of the data analytics company’s stock.

Karp has adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to sell up to 9,975,000 PLTR shares through Sept. 12 of this year. Based on the current trading price of $123, Karp’s planned sale of PLTR stock would net him proceeds of $1.23 billion.

However, in filing the new 10b5-1 trading plan, Karp canceled a previous plan that would have seen him sell much more stock — 48.9 million shares worth $6.01 billion. A 10b5-1 plan is used to remove the appearance of bias or that a company insider is benefiting from nonpublic information.

Blistering Rally

Karp’s planned stock sale comes as shares of Palantir enjoy a blistering rally. So far this year, PLTR stock has increased 63%, bringing its 12-month gain to 427%. Palantir’s big run has been driven by strong financial results, the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, and retail investor enthusiasm for the stock.

Karp previously sold $1.95 billion worth of PLTR stock in 2024. At least part of last year’s stock sale was done to cover required tax-withholding obligations in connection with the vesting of some restricted stock units that Karp owns. Palantir’s share price continues to trounce the benchmark S&P 500 index that is up 4% this year.

Is PLTR Stock a Buy?

Palantir Technologies stock has a consensus Hold rating among 17 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on two Buy, 10 Hold, and five Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average PLTR price target of $88.60 implies 28.43% downside risk from current levels."

MY COMMENT

So in reality all the BS headlines about the CEO selling $1.2BILLION in stock.....IGNORES.....the fact that the new stock sale agreement REPLACES one under which he would have sold.......drum role please.....$6.01BILLION in stock in 2025.

So the reality is that the new stock sale plan will actually result in him selling nearly.......$4BILLION LESS.....in stock in 2025.

AND....in addition in 2024....he sold $1.95BILLION in stock. So what he is doing in 2025 is a.....REDUCTION.....compared to what he did last year.

The media coverage on this was SENSATIONALISTIC BS. They played it up with all the headlines and content pushing the view that this was going to be a massive sale by him and a negative event.

In reality it is a reduction of what he was going to sell and a reduction from what he sold in 2024. They tried to make it sound like he was bailing out on company stock.....in many of the articles and headlines I saw today. They made it out to be a sinister and unusual event....when it was NOTHING of the sort. A total media HIT-JOB.....by those that knew the truth. The rest of them are too stupid or lazy to even look up the truth and just went along with it.

All I can say is in my view that......people with guts......got some good shares on sale early today.

 

To continue the above....here is the type of opening I saw on many sources:

"CEO Alex Karp is selling many of his personal shares in Palantir stock, causing shareholders to rush to the exits."

All over the internet they....DISHONESTLY......made it sound like he was bailing out on the stock. Like the opening line above.....they made it sound like he was selling MOST......."i.e"........"MANY OF HIS PERSONAL SHARES". In reality what he is selling is a drop in the bucket.

HERE is a particularly OBNOXIOUS example of a headline and article:

Palantir drops for a second day as cult stock loses momentum

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/pal...aders-latest-cult-trade-starts-to-unwind.html

"Investors continued to dump Palantir shares on Thursday, escalating concerns that the latest hot pick among retail traders could be fizzling out.
Shares of the mysterious technology and defense stock retreated more than 5% on Thursday,...."

TOTALLY LOADED language above......"CULT STOCK"........"FIZZLING OUT"......"the MYSTERIOUS stock". BASICALLY as complete of a media HIT-JOB as I have seen in a long time.

BY THE WAY....buried in the negative article above is the FACT.....that this drop in PLTR was only the worst drop since May....only 9 months ago.....not some once in a company lifetime event.

SHAME....SHAME....SHAME.

 

Needless to say I WILL NOT be selling any of my PLTR stock. After the......"BIG DROP"......I am content to sit on my shares with 300-500% gains.

 

The media will probably somehow figure out a way to spin this as a negative story.

CEO confidence hits 3-year high amid optimism on labor market, economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-...timism-on-labor-market-economy-154536523.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Chief executives haven't been this confident in their business outlook in three years.

Data released Thursday showed the Conference Board's measure of CEO confidence increased by nine points in the first quarter of 2025 to a reading of 60, its highest level in three years. The Conference Board added that the move above 50 indicates a shift from "cautious optimism" to "confident optimism" among business leaders.

The survey included responses from 134 US CEOs and was conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 10.

“The improvement in CEO Confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board said in the release. “All components of the Measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions — both overall and in their own industries."

A positive outlook on the labor market helped contribute to the upbeat attitude among CEOs, with 73% of CEOs planning to grow or maintain the size of their workforce over the next 12 months. Executives also noted labor shortages continued to ease with more respondents reporting "no or little problems hiring."

However, there were signs of the "low hire, low fire" environment that economists have used to describe the current labor market dynamic. The share of CEOs expecting to expand their workforce over the next year fell to 32%, down from 40% last quarter, while the share planning no change in total employment rose to 41%, up from 34%.

Broadly though, executives expressed upbeat confidence in both the current and future economic outlook, with 44% of CEOs reporting that economic conditions were better than six months ago, from just 20% last quarter. And 56% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to just 33% in the prior quarter.

“CEOs also reported an easing of concerns regarding a range of business risks,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., the vice chairman of the Business Council and chair emeritus of the Conference Board. “Compared to Q4 2024, fewer CEOs ranked cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial and economic risks, and supply chain disruptions as high-impact risks. The one exception was geopolitical instability, which 55% of CEOs in Q1 saw as a high-impact risk to their industry — up from 52% last quarter.”

Thursday's upbeat sentiment from corporate leaders runs counter to how consumers have reported feeling in recent surveys. In February, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey hit a seven-month low amid concerns about higher inflation over the next year.

The Conference Board's own measure of consumer confidence in February is due out Tuesday, Feb. 25.

MY COMMENT

Looks like everything is lining up very nicely for another 2-3 years of......BULL MARKET.

I am sure by tomorrow this little positive story will.....in some media sources......have a headline that says:

"Overly Optimistic CEO's An Indication Of Impending Out Of Control Inflation"

 

A WEENIE of an open today.....similar to recent ones we have seen. I dont have a single green stock....although many of my losses today are very minor. We will see how the day progresses.

 

AMEN.

Some Things I’m Thinking About

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/some-things-im-thinking-about/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Some random thoughts on navigating a challenging period in life:

Simple matters more when things get hard. Simple beats complex for a variety of reasons. It also makes life easier when life gets harder.

You don’t want your financial life to be complicated when life gets messy.

Simplifying your investment process, the number of accounts you have, your holdings, your personal finances, you bill payments, etc. makes it so you have one less thing to worry about when something bad happens.

Cash is a terrible long-term investment. Over the past 97 years the U.S. stock market has compounded at nearly 7% per year over and above the rate of inflation.

Three-month T-bills, a cash proxy, have grown at an inflation-adjusted rate of less than 0.3% per year.

One hundred dollars invested in the stock market in 1928 would have grown to nearly $1 million by the end of 2024. That same $100 in T-bills would have turned into just $2,360.

Keeping your money in cash is an awful investment.

Regardless of all that, cash is still an insanely helpful asset in the financial planning process.

Cash is a wonderful hedge against life getting in the way of your plans.

My lists are changing. The list of things I don’t care about is growing exponentially. There is a lot of bullshit in the world I’m more or less done caring about.

The list of things I do care about is shrinking, but my feelings for the important things are growing stronger by the day.

I’ve always been a big believer of focusing on what you can control and ignoring the noise but those ideas become more important as I age.

I’m embracing the mundane. I needed to get out of my own head this week so I’ve been trying to enjoy life’s simple activities — taking the dog for a walk, shoveling the driveway, cleaning the house, organizing a closet or two, watching an old movie, etc.

Doing something is better than doing nothing.

Sometimes you need to live in the present to stop obsessing about the future and sometimes you need to live in the present to stop obsessing about the past.

Life events are the risks that matter. I’ve received a lot of questions over the years.

Sometimes they’re about personal finance:

How much should I be saving?

When can I retire?

How much should I spend in retirement?

Sometimes they’re about markets:

Which direction are rates going?

How do I hedge against inflation?

When should I buy/sell this stock?

There are also all sorts of questions about taxes, insurance, which accounts to stash your money, when to pay off your mortgage, how to hedge specific geopolitical risks, etc.

But the most meaningful questions are always about life events — getting married, buying a house, having kids, getting divorced, changing jobs, retirement, death and all of the other stuff life throws at you.

Sure, returns, rates, bull markets and bear markets matter but it’s your circumstances and how they change that end up dictating your financial plan.

Life is for living. Money is for spending. My personal finance journey goes something like this:

I was a saver from an early age through some combination of my upbringing and personality. I didn’t make much money right out of college so adopting frugality as a strategy was both necessary and easy. I was probably too obsessive about saving until my kids came along. That flipped a switch and made me realize I needed more balance in life between saving money for the future and spending money in the now.

Seeing Jon die far too early further cements the idea that you need to enjoy life while you can. That enjoyment doesn’t always require money but I will be even more deliberate about spending on time and experiences with loved ones now that I’ve gone through this experience.

Most people are kind and good. It’s easy to be cynical about the world right now. If you lived your life completely online you would think everything and everyone is terrible. Technology and social media makes us all seem like worse people than we really are.

Going through the loss of a loved one has reinforced for me the idea that most people are genuinely kind and good. There’s nothing anyone can say that will make the pain go away but simply hearing from loved ones on a regular basis has helped with the grieving process.

The text messages. The phone calls. The I love yous. The hugs. The meals.

I’m overwhelmed by the feedback I received for There Goes My Hero.

People I’ve never met have been sharing with me their own stories of loss and grief. People who read the blog or listen to the podcast have been sending me condolences and notes of support all week.

This is one of those moments that restores my faith in humanity. Hearing from others helped put a smile on my face during a very difficult period.

Thanks to everyone for the kind words, condolences, personal stories, love and support.

I cannot express how much it means to me and my family.

Michael and I talked about Jon’s story, our journeys with grief and much more on this week’s Animal Spirits"

MY COMMENT

Some good sentiments above about life and cash.

 

ALSO....some good general sentiments here......but ignore any politics.

Tune Out the Noise

https://ritholtz.com/2025/02/tune-out-the-noise/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The single most asked question that I have heard since January 20th is:

“How will this new administration affect my stock, bond and real estate holdings?”

I keep hearing variations of that question from clients, advisors, and the media. The general question reflects a concern about the new Trump 2.0 administration’s flurry of activities, especially DOGE, Elon Musk, layoffs, and other issues.

My advice is to tune out the noise, turn off the TV, and avoid the trolling, wild gesticulations, and chaos. Instead, focus on what is truly happening.

I admit the general demeanor feels weird because there’s been a whole lot more getting said than done; far fewer actions than the pronouncements (or stated intentions to perform actions) all of which may or may not happen.

How many of the 3 million federal civil service workers (not counting military or postal service employees) are really going to be laid off? Does the executive branch have the authority to cancel spending allocated by Congress? What can Elon Musk do?

I don’t know; I doubt most of the pundits you hear opining all day long on TV know either. The outcome of these issues will not be litigated on television; rather, it will be litigated in the federal court system, where it is supposed to happen.

***

It is difficult to remember this when you are overwhelmed by Steve Bannon’s “Flood the Zone ” strategy. A perfect example is the U.S. military activity abroad. Is Canada about to become the 51st state? Will we retake the Panama Canal by force? Will Denmark knuckle under and sell us Greenland?

That was last week—it feels like months ago. I don’t know if any of those territorial ambitions will come to fruition (color me doubtful). But I do see that the noise of these issues has wholly overwhelmed any boots-on-the-ground activity. My advice is that investors (mostly) ignore these comments.

Flood the Zone is very good at exhausting you politically, but don’t let it exhaust your discipline as an investor.

Another example: 47 (the same guy as 45, but a different administration) announced today that he is “canceling Manhattan’s congestion pricing.” The MTA yawned at the proclamation. Despite all the sturm und drang, the MTA is still collecting congestion pricing and says it will continue to do so until it is ordered by a lawful court to stop.

What about all those Tariffs? Canada and Mexico? (Nothing done)

Have there been mass layoffs? (No)

China Tariffs? (Nope)

Has Pentagon spending been cut yet? (No)

Ukraine and Russia? (Nyet)

47 is a savvier executive than 45; he is experienced, has his own people in place, seems to have a thought-out plan, and his team is executing that plan. But my focus is on what actually gets put into place and not the noise the media dutifully repeats as if it’s Gospel.

***

Recall the era of Trump 1.0, especially the period between election day and the inauguration. During that interregnum, 45 began tweeting at company executives, cajoling, threatening, and otherwise causing general mischief. For the first few weeks, markets punished companies that received 45’s ire. But soon after, it became clear this was mostly bluster, with little or no actual-world consequences. Market (over)reaction faded.

After November 5, 2024, the Russell 2000 Index gained on hopes that the stated Trump policy would benefit smaller cap companies. That has mostly faded, and RUT is now more or less back to where it was before November 5th. Even the MAGA ETF (after a post-election pop) is again lagging the S&P 500 (above since election; below, trailing 12 month chart).





To me, the political noise is just that – a distraction. I suggest you ignore most of what gets said, and focus on all the things that actually get accomplished. These are likely to include large tax cuts (TCJA gest extended 5+ years) and a much M&A-friendlier FTC…

***

More importantly, pay attention to the broader context of where we are today. Back to back years of greater than 20% in equities strongly suggest we lower expectations for the following 12-24 months.

Context matters much more than noise."

MY COMMENT

IGNORE the NOISE. That means to focus on the long term. ESPECIALLY....IGNORE the 24/7 obnoxious media. They will simply drive you crazy as an investor.

 

Pretty obvious why.......mortgage rates and the same old "stuff" the housing markets have been dealing with for years now.

US existing home sales fall more than expected in January

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-150825799.html

 

A perfect day.....absolutely NOTHING going on on any import today. I am seeing NOTHING.

The markets are simply red because they have talked themselves into a hissy-fit and are worn out. Who cares.

At least I am not seeing ANY focus on NVDA......peace for at least one day.

 

A totally meaningless week this week.

NOTHING significant going on in business or otherwise. SO....the media is focused on speculative BS and driving the markets down. Of course you cant blame the AI PROGRAM TRADERS for taking advantage of this environment to make quick micro-second money........and escalating the drop a little bit.

After all the DOOM&GLOOM and FIRE&BRIMSTONE is done at the close today......we will end with a little bit of a negative week. BUT...beyond a few weeks or a month or two....it will ALL simply be irrelevant. It will be a MEANINGLESS and INVISIBLE little dot on a long term line on a chart of the SP500.

We have of course.....squandered another great earnings reporting season.....as usual. This has been going on for years now......so again....who cares.

As I am typing I am being kept company by the constant....BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH,.....of financial TV.

 

This is probably the most important story I am seeing today. YEA.

Dunkin' to stop charging customers extra for non-dairy milk alternatives
Dunkin' customers will no longer pay extra for soy, almond, oat or coconut milk substitutions beginning March 5

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...g-customers-extra-non-dairy-milk-alternatives

 

I have been working hard this morning. NO....not on investments or investing.....there is nothing for me to do as a long term investor today.

I am making index cards that will serve as labels for paintings, sculpture and antiques. We will be hosting an art event in our home in March for collectors from around the state. I will produce about 100+ index cards with information about each item of note in our collection. I will attach them to the wall with painters tape on the back of each card.

It is a slow process since I have to go to my files and notes for each item. On each card, I am listing the name of the artist, the name and date of the item, and a little snippet of history or important provenance for each item.

I had a vision of putting all those cards up on the wall and waking up the next mornings to them all having fallen to the floor and having been chewed up by the dogs. So I tested a few cards on the wall.....they definately stick and will stay up for days.....so no problem.

At least once I am done with these cards I will be able to use them over and over in the future as needed....if I am careful taking them all off the wall when the showing is over.

That is what I am doing today.....nothing else of any interest going on.

 

WOW....two of my stocks have actually turned green....PLTR and AAPL.

 

I finished up the three Income Tax returns that I do each year....this week. It takes me a little over an hour to complete each one. I will not print them till about a week before April 15...in case I need to revise something.

As usual.....money is owed for each one....so they will be mailed with checks on April 15. The good news is that my mental calculations of what would be owed turned out to be approximately accurate....so NO nasty surprises this year.

 

YEAH......a worthless day today and pretty broad based losses. I had a single stock up today....COST. I also got beat by the SP500 by 1.00%.

 

The....worthless.....week that was.

DOW year to date +6.21%
DOW five days (-2.89%)

SP500 year to date +2.46%
SP500 five days (-1.67%)

NASDAQ 100 year to date +3.11%
NASDAQ 100 five days (-1.84%)

NASDAQ year to date +1.26%
NASDAQ five days (-2.17%)

RUSSELL year to date (-1.63%)
RUSSELL five days (-4.04%)

A totally worthless week for the markets.....ALL....the big averages down significantly....a broad based losing week. About the best I can say is at least I seem to be doing about the same as the SP500 year to date. As of the close today my entire portfolio is at.....+2.31%. Last week at this time I was at......+5.59%.

MOVING ON TO GLORY.

 

What a big JOKE today. Much of the loss seems to be AI TRADING DRIVEN as the big money traded the consumer.....beauty pageant sentiment poll. Probably the most worthless and useless piece of fantasy economic data. As if consumers have any clue where the economy is headed. Talk about a severely lagging indicator.

Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks sold off on Friday as new U.S. data sparked concern among investors over a slowing economy and sticky inflation, leading them in search of safer assets.

Losses intensified into the close as traders feared staying long into a weekend that could bring another barrage of headlines from the Trump administration, which has proposed a flurry of tariffs and other market-moving policy changes since taking charge a month ago.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 748.63 points, or 1.69%, to close at 43,428.02. Friday’s decline, its worst in the young year, brought its two-day losses to roughly 1,200 points. The S&P 500 slid 1.71% to end at 6,013.13, marking a second negative session after the index closed at a record on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite
dropped 2.2%, settling at 19,524.01.

A volley of data raised new concerns about the economy and sent investors into bonds, which caused yields to tumble. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in February, a decline of nearly 10% and a steeper drop than expected as consumers raised concerns about higher inflation ahead from possible new tariffs. The five-year inflation outlook in the survey was 3.5%, the highest since 1995. On top of that, existing home sales in the U.S. fell more than expected last month to 4.08 million units. The U.S. services purchasing managers’ index also dropped into contraction territory for February, according to S&P Global.

Walmart shares fell 2.5%, marking a second day of declines after the company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast that also soured the outlook for the consumer and the economy.

Prominent investor Steve Cohen shared some negative comments on the market and economy from a conference in Miami.

“It’s definitely a period where I think the best gains have been had and [it] wouldn’t surprise me to see a significant correction,” Cohen said, citing proposed tariffs dragging on the economy, as well as some of the government’s cost-cutting efforts.

Investor favorites such as Nvidia and Palantir saw steep losses on Friday as traders shifted toward traditionally safer assets. Procter & Gamble climbed 1.8%, while General Mills and Kraft Heinz advanced more than 3% each.

For the week, the S&P 500 slid about 1.7%, while the Dow and Nasdaq both lost 2.5%.

“The top 20 performers in the S&P 500 today are all from defensive sectors: consumer staples, utilities and healthcare,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist and founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “Investors often rotate into these so-called defensive sectors when economic growth concerns appear.”"

MY COMMENT

Right on time....lets ramp up the negativity in time for the big NVDA earnings next week. I will say it now.....it is probably impossible for NVDA earnings to make any difference to the markets or the stock.

BUMMER.

 

Perhaps he did.

As for me.....I am willing to take the hammer even for months if necessary. It is just part of being long term and fully invested all the time. It is called.......PROBABILITY.