Some of the articles above show the Jekyll and Hyde mentality. One speaks of corrections/history like they are talking to a 3 year old and the other "stocks could surge 30%." Although, I guess they must cover all the bases so they will be right either way.
I also enjoy the irony of listing examples of how this person or that person correctly called a specific event. Then quickly qualifies "not knowing" what the hell is going on or when it may occur. I clearly expect them to start saying " In exactly 4 months at 12:56 pm we should hit an ATH or bottom out....maybe, but very likely, it could happen." I sincerely enjoy the timelines they give about these sorts of things. Let me check my calendar and crystal ball and I'll let you guys know what to expect.
The market is trying to stave off another red day....it is trying to have a "The Little Engine that Could" moment into the last hour.
OldManRam......are you still here? How are you doing with property there is Washington state in today's environment? Are you being hit by the Washington state capital gains tax?
Yep Smokie......most on this thread are simply going to...carry on. But the fact that some or all of us are "feeling" the current event.....is a good sign. If we are getting some "feelings"....I am sure the average investor is starting to get some feelings of panic. We need to wring any lingering bit of euphoria out of the markets and than we will move on up.....not that it will be tomorrow.
HELLO......if inflation is expected to be down than fears of "stagflation" should not be increasing. This headline is a contradiction....or rather......"uneducated" sentiment is. February CPI report expected to show inflation moderated as 'stagflation' fears rise https://finance.yahoo.com/news/febr...ated-as-stagflation-fears-rise-184443587.html
They should be......natural gas is as clean now as any renewable power source and in many ways is even more environmentally friendly. Microsoft is open to using natural gas to power AI data centers to keep up with demand https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/mic...-ai-data-centers-ameet-ballooning-demand.html AND....we have massive supplies of gas....at least enough to last 200 years. In the medium term 10-25 years....I am sure we will bee a HUGE number of mini-nuclear plants come online to power AI centers and individual cities. I mean....come on....we have nearly 90 nuclear powered ships operating in the USA Navy every day.......and we virtually never hear about any serious accident. It is ridiculous that we are not moving forward.......yesterday.....with mini-reactors for electricity generation. In the entire world there are probably about 200....nuclear powered ships.
These tariff tussles are starting to kind of look foolish in a way. This "I'll see your 25 and raise you 50" and then back off once again, then back on....then moved to a further date....only to be changed once again. Then let's sit down and talk about it. Seems silly to go about it this way. I'm not saying one should/should not attempt to renegotiate some of these things, but this constant tit for tat is kind of an odd way to carry on. Why not schedule a meeting and talk about it or make your case for why you want a change versus all of the drama.
I agree @Smokie! I was giving him the benefit of the doubt but the longer this drags out without resolve the less confident I am. Is it better to come in guns blazing and rip the bandaid off or do a slow pull over a 4 year term? All I know is the market hate uncertainty and we have a big dose of it right now! I am starting to get the feeling we are nearing some sort of bottom. Probabaly a nice sharp quick pullback and probably lay down in this basen until some of the deals start finalizing.
WELL....I ended in the GREEN today. A small gain for me....but a gain. I also managed to beat the SP500 by 0.95% today. MOVING ON.
Heys guys it’s been awhile for me on here. I been doing a bit of traveling but I always look on here and get my read in with you all. Just wanted to say the current market is experiencing volatility due to a mix of factors—rising interest rates, inflation concerns, global economic uncertainty, and shifts in investor sentiment. Markets naturally go through cycles of highs and lows, and while the short-term outlook may seem uncertain, history shows that markets tend to recover and grow over the long term. How to Stay Positive Despite Losses 1.Perspective Matters – Market downturns are normal, and every long-term investor experiences them. What matters most is how you respond. 2.You’re Investing for the Long Run – Short-term losses are only realized if you sell. If you hold quality investments, their value has the potential to recover and grow over time. 3.Historical Resilience – Major downturns like 2008 and 2020 felt devastating at the time, but those who stayed invested saw significant recoveries. 4.Opportunities in Declines – Market dips can be opportunities to buy great investments at lower prices, setting you up for future gains. 5.Stick to Your Strategy – Emotional decisions often lead to mistakes. If your portfolio is built with a long-term vision, staying disciplined is key. Why Being a Long-Term Investor is Crucial •Compounding Growth – Time in the market allows your investments to grow exponentially through compounding returns. •Less Impact from Short-Term Volatility – The longer you stay invested, the less significant short-term drops become in the grand scheme. •Predictable Recovery Trends – Historically, the market has always rebounded from downturns. Long-term investors benefit from this pattern. Stay the course as always my friends
That's the problem: some things can be handled through brute force and turn out as intended, and some absolutely cannot. The key is to know which are which. That's where an excellent grasp on history, culture, economics, and statesmanship come into play. Regardless of one's political leanings, I think it is beyond obvious that we are not seeing that.
I am only down about 5.69% YTD. A few tenths of a percentage worse than the S&P index. Hardly anything to worry about, my numbers are smaller but starting to become significant. I am thinking of it as a buying opportunity. If I had additional capital I would hope I would have the guts to buy now but am continuing with my monthly purchases. A few years ago I posted on this thread that by the time I was 30 I hoped to have at least in the six figure balance of stocks which should put me on the path to financial security in retirement. I am right on track for that, maybe a little higher depending on how the next month shakes out. I am including 401k/IRA/brokerage accounts in that total. At some point my gains will start exceeding my contributions and then the compounding can really take effect. It’s just a bump on the road, stay strong!
Very nice post @EnzotheBulldog! Please keep posting! This is a pretty amazing little thread that @WXYZ started that I think a bunch of us are grateful for. @Jwalker It sounds like you have a pretty solid portfolio if you are only down %5 on the year. I like your $100k goal by 30. Did you know if you put $100k in the S&P500 at 30 years old, assuming 7% return, you will have $1,000,000 by 65 years old without contributing another dime after 30. I will say make sure you enjoy your 20's. I'm sure there are plenty of millionaires that would trade money for youth without any second thoughts. Since we can't control the present but we can take advantage of it, I have a 529 plan going for my son who is 2. I started it when he was about 6 months old and now has about $10,000 in it, over $1000 of that is gains. This was a fun little account to do because it's a starting for scratch type of deal when I already have developed investment accounts. Kind of like planting a little seedling for my sons future. You need to do your own research if this type of investment makes sense for your situation but what sold me is he can roll over $35k into a roth ira. I am banking on that number going up by the time he turns 18. $35k at 18 years old with a 7% return is over $800,000 at 65 years old. School isn't getting any cheaper and at this rate he won't be receiving financial aid. It can also be used for private high school and such. I guess it's better to have it than not. Worst case is it gets cashed out and we take the tax hit and move on. For now my plan is to at least front load the account and let it compound. I put in $320 each month, my napkin calculation is if I do that until he's 18 and he has a 7% return he should have well over $100k.
Lots of good long term thinking in many posts above. Well done guys. You can see I am IGNORING the short term news of the day......I think this is more important. Staying Coolheaded Amid Stocks’ Swings Bear markets usually start with a whimper, not a bang. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...mentary/staying-coolheaded-amid-stocks-swings (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Sharp negativity struck again on Monday, as US stocks sold off -2.7%, bringing the decline since a high 13 trading days ago to -8.5%. Sharp moves like this are textbook of corrections (short, sharp, sentiment-driven drops of -10% to -20%), but they often feel like calls to action. So what to do? First, if you are feeling the urge to act, close your eyes and take a few deep breaths. Second, remember your long-term goals and why you own stocks. Third, remember the long-term returns that drew you to stocks include many, many sharp drops like this. And fourth, set your jaw and stay cool. This is admittedly easy for us to say. We study and write about these things for a living and have seen an awful lot in our many years doing this. It can be easy to develop academic detachment. But we know investing is personal and the emotional response to volatility is real. These stretches are difficult to endure. And the accompanying scare stories make it that much more gut-churning. Words like “patience” and “discipline” sound cold and out of touch. We will use these words anyway, because there is something else we have witnessed a lot in the investing world: people taking undue risk in order to stop feeling the pain of short-term losses. The vast majority of the time, it means selling after a downturn, crystalizing the decline, and potentially being on the sidelines as markets rebound—and reducing their long-term returns as a result. Yes, sometimes it means getting lucky and exiting early in a bear market, typically a long, deep downturn of -20% or worse with a fundamental cause. But much more common is the standard bull market correction—usually a sentiment-driven drop of -10% to -20%. These both start and end without warning, and the rebound is often as sharp as the drop. Many of stocks’ best bull market years include corrections. So whenever volatility strikes, we don’t think the best question is, how can I avoid this? Rather, it is vital to ask, is this a correction or a bear market? Corrections and bear markets usually have differing traits. Bear markets usually start gradually, with gentle declines that mute fear and lull people into believing they are a buying opportunity. Sometimes this is because the bear market starts when investors are euphoric or very optimistic, with few worries to weigh on expectations. And sometimes it is because the market is pricing in a huge wallop (e.g., a deleterious regulatory change, egregious monetary policy error, heightened political risk, etc.) that either no one sees or everyone misinterprets as benign or even good. In either case, the vast majority of the time, the decline is normally long, gradual and grinding. Panic-inducing drops usually come at the end, when it is clear a bear market is well underway and few foresee any bottom anywhere close. Corrections are different. They are usually shorter and sharper. They start for any or no reason, and fear reigns. Often, they come with a big scary story and forecasts of far worse ahead. Instead of calling it a buying opportunity, headlines harp on ways to cut volatility and limit your downside risk. In our view, this downturn looks very correction-like. It isn’t a slow, rolling decline—it is a sharp shock off a high. Bear markets often average -2% per month over their entire duration, with most of the decline coming in the final third of their lifespan. This time, the S&P 500 is down -8.5% in less than a month. And fear is the dominant emotion. Fear of tariffs. Federal layoffs. A couple of weak economic reports have everyone on recession watch, even though the Atlanta Fed confirmed its real-time GDP tracker still shows growth once you adjust for non-monetary gold imports. Headlines tout high-dividend strategies, an ill-conceived strategy to cushion volatility, among many others. In our experience, with the exception of 2020 (when stocks had to quickly price sudden COVID lockdowns and the severe recession they caused), you don’t see this kind of sentiment during a bear market until very, very late. Also, there is an important curiosity: This downturn is primarily a US phenomenon. In dollars, European stocks hit a high on Friday, March 7. They are up since US stocks’ February 19 high, too. In local currencies, European stocks were at record highs on March 3—this time last week. This is not what you would expect if, as so many claim, the US were really at high recession risk. The US economy is a powerful gravitational force. A downturn here would likely ripple globally, which international stocks would probably pre-price. All similarly liquid markets discount widely known information simultaneously, so it isn’t right to say US stocks understand a risk European stocks are ignoring. Markets don’t work like that, in our experience. More likely, sentiment is just affecting each market differently. So yes, we urge you to be patient and stay disciplined. Bull markets usually end with a whimper, not a bang. This is a bang. A sharp bang, indeed. Corrections can sting in the moment, but they are normal in bull markets. Healthy, even. They reset sentiment, rebuilding the wall of worry and setting the stage for the next leg up. Judging from headlines, the wall is adding more bricks. None of this makes the pullback’s end possible to time with precision, of course. It could end today, this week, this month or later. It could be a V-shaped bottom or W-shaped. It could end as a near-correction, a shallow correction or a deeper one, like 1998. People forget now, but the correction that struck when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management imploded in 1998 wiped out most of the MSCI World’s year-to-date gain early that October. But the recovery was lightning fast, and stocks finished that year up over 20%.[ii] There is a term for selling during a downturn and missing the recovery: getting whipsawed. When we counsel patience at times like this, we are trying to help you avoid getting whipsawed. Avoiding more losses in the moment might feel good. But staring down retirement with lower compound returns generally doesn’t feel good. So think about your long-term goals and your future self. Wisdom, patience and a cool head are your best friends now, in our view." MY COMMENT Some great advice and information above. Most of us that post here are already doing what this article recommends. For LURKERS......this is great advice. Over my investing lifetime there have been many MOMENTS in time when I started to "FEEL" like things were different and that I should consider doing something.....as the pressure of negativity builds. I have noticed over many decades that when I reach that point,......invariably.......the markets SOON turn and I am glad that I did not give in. I learned over many decades to IGNORE those feelings and do nothing......and have been REWARDED as a result. I have seen that over the long term.....it is easier and easier for me to IGNORE those sorts of feelings. NOW......I just dont care.
There are many GREAT posts above by many different posters. As I said....well done guys. In this little dip.....here we all are coming out and supporting each other.....reinforcing the message of long term investing. That is one of the purposes of this thread.......power and safety in numbers and a place where anyone can come for support or recognition that we are all in the same boat......in trying to achieve financial security.
The short term story of the day. Inflation rate eased to 2.8% in February, lower than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The consumer price index for both all-items and core increased 0.2% in February, slightly below expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation was at 2.8%, while core was at 3.1%. Both also were 0.1 percentage point below the Wall Street consensus and the previous month’s levels. The report provided some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation Inflation rate hits 2.8% in February, less than expected Prices for goods and services moved up less than expected in February, providing some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of costs across the U.S. economy, ticked up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8%, according to the Labor Department agency. The all-item CPI had increased 0.5% in January. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI also rose 0.2% on the month and was at 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The core CPI had climbed 0.4% in January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 0.3% increases on both headline and core, with respective annual rates of 2.9% and 3.2%, meaning that all of the rates were 0.1 percentage point less than expected. Stock market futures added to gains after the release while Treasury yields rose. Markets have been highly volatile as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped 6% over the past month. “A lot of this inflation data does not incorporate what is to come and what already has happened for tariffs,” said Kevin Gordon, senor investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “The vagaries and uncertainties associated with policy are still a much stronger force in the market than anything CPI-related or in terms of one data point.” Shelter costs moved up 0.3%, less than in January but still responsible for about half the monthly increase in the CPI, the BLS said. The category makes up more than one-third of the total weighting in the CPI, with particular focus on a measure in what homeowners estimate they could get in rent for their properties, which also increased 0.3%. Food and energy indexes both increased 0.2%. Used vehicle prices jumped 0.9% and apparel rose 0.6%. Within food, egg prices soared another 10.4%, taking the 12-month increase to 58.8% and pushing a broader measure that also includes meat, poultry and fish up 7.7% on the year. Beef prices also climbed 2.4% in February. Motor vehicle insurance posted a 0.3% increase on the month and was up 11.1% annually. However, airline fares slipped 4% in February and were down 0.7% from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings increased 0.1% for the month and were up 1.2% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate release. The report comes at a potentially critical juncture for the U.S. economy and financial markets, which have been shaken lately as President Donald Trump escalates a trade war and concerns rise of a growth scare. In the latest developments, Trump’s 25% duties on steel and aluminum took effect Wednesday, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union. Trump also has slapped 20% levies on goods from China. Federal Reserve officials are watching the developments closely. Central bank policymakers generally consider tariffs to have modest impacts on inflation and often are viewed as one-off measures that don’t have lasting impact on longer-term gauges. However, a broader trade war could change that if the pace of increases becomes more ingrained in the economy. Markets currently expect the Fed to resume cutting interest rates in June, with a total of 0.75 percentage point in reductions by the end of 2025. “The February CPI release showed further signs of progress on underlying inflation, with the pace of price increases moderating after January’s strong release,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “While the Fed is still likely to remain on hold at this month’s meeting, the combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth suggest that the Fed is moving closer to continuing its easing cycle.” The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to hold its key borrowing rate in a target range between 4.25%-4.5%. Economic growth is trending negative in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data. The measure has pegged Q1 growth at a 2.4% decline, which would be the first negative growth quarter in three years." MY COMMENT Perfectly NORMAL inflation in this report and for months now. In fact just about ALL economic data is pointing to lower inflation this year. IGNORE "sentiment"......it is driven by the media. We are currently seeing massive media and political FEAR-MONGERING over tariffs. Total BS. There has been lots of talk but the reality is there have basically been NOTHING done YET in terms of tariffs or any impact of tariffs on prices or anything else. At this point it is all talk.....negotiating talk.....to get better trade deals and to drive manufacturing and investment here in the USA. In the end we will end up with mostly BETTER trade deals and there will be little to no impact from tariffs to the economy.....because in the end.....there will be very little in the way of new or higher tariffs. It will all be forgotten a year from now. It is a GIANT....TEMPEST IN A TEA-POT.
Here is the short term markets if you care. YES....a nice GREEN day in the market neighborhood. But it is early in the day and I am sure the pressure of negativity will build as the day goes on. Stocks Storm Back After US Inflation Surprise: Markets Wrap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-fall-wall-street-224904447.html
A nice green day in the markets today....but....not as big as it should be considering everything. It looks like some of the early gains are moderating. It is going to be a back alley knife fight between the FEAR and NEGATIVITY (sentiment) and the GOOD DATA today.
Here is a big part of the down market. I cant read this article but I know the headline is accurate.....especially in terms of BIG TECH. Hedge funds are selling stocks at a pace not seen in years https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/-hedge-funds-are-selling-stocks-at-a-pace-not-seen-in-years.html
