OK....a nice green open today. The question which is impossible to know till hindsight after the close today....will the early gains hold all day? No one knows. I dont see much in the financial news today that is different. It is the SAME basic environment today as all week. We do appear to have eliminated the drama over government funding.......and.....government shut-down. Longer term......over the next 6-9 months....... it appears that we "might" now be in for three rate cuts. The markets were mostly thinking two cuts previously. I continue to have ZERO concern over tariffs. it is ALL a big negotiating strategy. Over the short term it will be....DRAMA, DRAMA, DRAMA. BUT....after about 2-6 months it will all settle down and in the end it will have all been a big turmoil over NOTHING. I have ZERO doubt that in the end.....as a country....we will be in a far better situation regarding tariffs than when we started.
Early today I can tell that I am getting some big gains. But I also see that I have two stocks in the red to start the day....COST and HD. CRAZY with COST....if any stock should be going up in the current economic environment and the inflation fear-mongering it is COST. In fact I have very RARELY seen COST impacted by ANY economic situation. The company knows how to play every potential situation and their extremely LOYAL customers simply.....never seem to lessen their level of shopping at COSTCO. They are such a well managed business....they continue to grow and do fine in any environment. AND....I see that as I have been typing this COST has made a sudden "V" shaped move into the green. I have been waiting to hit "post"....to see if HD can also get green as they are showing movement in that direction as I am typing. AND....yes....HD just went green.
LOL.....COST is now back red. IRRELEVANT market action. I dont know why I bother even typing these sorts of minute by minute opening changes.
I like this little "letter". Letter From the CIO: Market Volatility https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/letter-from-the-cio-market-volatility.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Dear Investors, As investors who focus their investments on retirement or other financial goals, we know market volatility can be unsettling, but it is also a natural and necessary part of investing. The simple key is to stay disciplined, focus on those goals, and continue to make informed decisions that are unobstructed by emotion. If you indeed have lingering concerns about your portfolio, the best thing to do is to check in with your financial advisor for how to plan around these occasional periods of volatility. In terms of today’s market, the degree of volatility we have seen in recent days has been a rarity over the last two years, making it important for us to offer our view of the causes and help establish some perspective. Notably, the S&P 500 Index has been down for five of the last six weeks. While this historically is a normal, and often necessary occurrence, investors have likely grown accustomed to the smooth ride the market has provided over the last 24 months. As a result, this bout of volatility, while subdued versus historical standards, may seem more severe. Thus, more questions are asked. More concerns are raised. So, let’s address some of the elevated anxiety. What’s Driving Market Volatility? Tariff policies and economic uncertainty: First, let’s discuss the causes of the volatility, both the issues that have come up in the news and those that haven’t. The Trump Administration’s tariff policies have introduced some unease among market participants. Are those policies negotiation tactics or are they part of a new governance framework? The answer appears to be a little of both. Is that framework clearly and sustainably inflationary? We believe it is premature to say, as past data does not seem to draw a straight-line conclusion to that effect. Will the action cause the economy to weaken materially? Again, that is probably too early to conclude, but it does cause further unease around economic indicators that have been showing some slight sign of weakness for some time. For a while now, consumer spending, and the jobs market, while both remaining on solid footing, have begun to decelerate just a bit. And it is often not the current level of any indicator, but the directional change in that indicator which eventually causes markets to take note. Political landscape: On top of the worry about uncertainties around tariff policy and the economy, we have an increasingly polarized political landscape. While this by itself should not be a real surprise, it has caused the market to be increasingly concerned about the ability of U.S. political leaders to fund the government via a short-term funding bill. And the deadline for a successful continuing resolution is March 14. Failure to pass a bill may — and Republicans have scant room for dissent on the issue — cause portions of the government to begin to close. This heightened political discourse has raised anxiety, as it nearly always does, and has added to economic worry. Market Valuations and Expectations What has gone unseen by many, but has been discussed widely by LPL Research, is the risk that this market may have gotten a bit ahead of itself in terms of valuations and expectations. The market had been pricing in a Trump election win; it doubled down with a further post-election market uptick, and investors were extrapolating nothing but good times ahead. In such cases, we often witness some “buy on rumor, sell on news” market activity as investors position for an event and cash in when the event occurs. The latter portion of that scenario could be occurring now as trading momentum has faded, however belatedly. This is one reason we have suggested, over the last few months, that investors should tread increasingly lightly. What Should Investors Do? What should investors do at this very moment? The good news is that the fundamental underpinnings of business and consumer conditions remain relatively sound. While this bout of volatility may feel acutely painful, it is likely little more than noise. However, LPL Research has been consistent in its message that this year is probably going to be choppier than the last two. Recent weeks likely serve as an adequate warning to investors who may have gotten a bit freewheeling with their asset exposure. If there is one thing we have increasingly learned over the last decade or so is that this market trades fast. And rather than try and out-trade the algorithms, individual investors should ensure their portfolios are equipped, at all times, to take the good with the bad. This bout of “bad”, we believe, is likely to be relatively modest by comparison." MY COMMENT No problem.....man.
For anyone FREAKING OUT over tariffs......the VAST MAJORITY....do not start till April 2....even though the media is talking about them as though they have already started. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...gne-says-he-wont-bend-in-fight-191201024.html
Yep, still a lot of noise out there. On the government funding/shutdown I have no clue. We deal with this about every 6 months or so now it seems. I trust none of them to do anything but serve their lobbyists at any given time. It has always been a circus surrounding the issue. The FED cuts. We have had this little side show it seems forever. So long, that it just seems normal to have the issue discussed. It's like watching a bad re-run over and over expecting something different. On the tariffs, I think it is a bit foolish to negotiate this way. I have been involved in various upper level meetings, negotiations, some union type related stuff as well over a long period of time. I have seen all type of "tactics" over the years....too many to count. I have seen groups come in and start out with a "big stick" type attitude and be very strong, overbearing with a touch of disrespect sprinkled in. In some of those cases, they were in a position of advantage and even strength. The "deal" went on for quite sometime. In some of those instances it likely would have been resolved sooner, but the other side was not keen to being pushed around. The deal was eventually settled in many cases and some resulted in more money being spent. The one constant that never changed and was never forgotten in some of those instances....was how people were treated. It was never forgotten. And sure enough, somewhere down the road the companies/entity with the "big stick" and attitude needed some concessions or some type of assistance with a project. It was at that time, they found it very difficult to navigate and get people on board. People remember those encounters. I have seen this play out for many, many years over my career.
Personally I see how we deal with other countries as totally different from negotiating with a union or business to business. The vast majority of countries in the world are basically Socialist at this point........including the EU.....and are not going to do us any favors anytime soon. We usually sit and allow other countries to screw us.......so.....I dont have any concerns for how we are now treating them at all. Our actions as a country should be TOTALLY pro-USA. Other countries should be totally focused on what is best for their country. When there is overlap....good.....when not....that is just the way it is.
The markets definitely seem a bit moody. The slightest little changes seem to send it up and just as quickly something changes it's course. Seems very finicky about all and anything. Of course the short term can often be this way, but it appears a bit amplified in regard to any type of news. I have added a few shares here and there outside of regular contributions. We have had a noisy little start to this year.
Now here is some good sentiment news.....where it matters...business. US business owners share renewed optimism for Trump's economy, unfazed by tariffs and DOGE Core findings from Freedom Economy Index reveal small business owners expect to avoid recession, are focused on government reform https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/u...-optimism-trumps-economy-unfazed-tariffs-doge
ANYONE is welcome and encouraged to post their personal opinions on this thread. You do not have to agree with......"me".
I think sometimes it is easy for us to think we can just fold up camp and solely rely and take care of ourselves, but things would probably look vastly different. We need strategic partners from here on out, just like we always have. I do agree we probably need to re-examine some of those things and likely improve our positions. I guess I would disagree on how we may treat others. No, I am not suggesting our country be "soft" or a push over either. We do have our own interests to look after, but we do have some very important allies in this world. If we believe we have been taken advantage of, then lets sit down and explain what we expect. The "I'll see your 25 and raise you 50" approach is just causing everyone else to do the same. Will they blink first? Will we get what we need done? Will they have to cave because of it? Maybe and likely in some cases. Will they remember it? Certainly. Of course, that's just my opinion and how I go about my own dealings with others. My point was really more to having "people skills" and how those are an invaluable tool in any setting.
On another topic....the market is giving us some good fortune today it appears. At least for now. We need to end up on the positive side today. Well, I don't guess we "need" to, but it would be nice.
I am now at.....(-7.5%).....YTD for my entire account. Not bad considering the correction that we have now experienced.....and are still in. I dont care how individual positions are faring. It is all about my portfolio as a whole. As long as the individual businesses that I own are doing well on a fundamental business basis.....I am satisfied.....even when the stock price does not reflect that success. Sooner or later the stock price will come back to REALITY....and I will be just fine.
