The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    DOES anyone remember earnings? Those little money thingies that businesses report each quarter. I know no one cares anymore about earnings....over all the short term DRAMA.....but.....here are my dates:

    4-24-25 GOOGL
    4-29-25 AMZN
    4-30-25 MSFT
    5-01-25 AAPL
    5-05-25 PLTR
    5-15-25 WMT
    5-20-25 HD
    5-28-25 NVDA
    5-29-25 COST
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like a STRONG BEAT for J&J.......and....went down today.

    BUT.....being "me"......I have no interest in drug companies.

    I used to own J&J...but the talc litigation was killing them and they were ditching their consumer products and becoming more of a drug company. So I sold them back as noted somewhere in this thread.

    I just dont like drug companies.....they are too erratic with too much.....feast or famine.....for me. AND....I like big cap GROWTH companies.....with emphasis on "growth".
     
  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Some info for NVDA holders…..

    Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations

    On April 9, the U.S. government told Nvidia it would require a license to export the chips to China and a handful of other countries, the company said in a filing.

    Nvidia said in Tuesday’s filing that the U.S. government told the company on Monday that the license requirement for H20 chips would be in effect “for the indefinite future.”

    Nvidia has argued that further controls on its chips would stifle competition and potentially even erode U.S. competitiveness in technology. The company previously said it moved some of its operations, including testing and distribution, out of China after the 2022 export controls.

    At the company’s annual conference last month, when asked about Chinese export controls, Huang said Nvidia works to comply with the law, but he also noted that about half of the world’s AI researchers are from China, and many of those work at U.S.-based AI labs.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Considering the NVDA announcement yesterday.....the open today is exactly what you would expect. As usual the short term is TOTALLY headline and media driven.

    I am personally willing to take the short term pain if we can disconnect from China.

    The message to companies is the same as the past 10 or more years.....GET OUT OF CHINA. You are not doing your shareholders or business any favors by being in China. It is not worth the short term profits and sales.....in the end China will SCREW YOU.
     
  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Since AMD is mentioned occasionally here....

    April 16 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), expects charges of up to $800 million due to the latest curbs by the Trump administration on exports of advanced processors to China, the company said on Wednesday.

    AMD confirmed on Wednesday that the export control applies to its MI308 products. A U.S. Commerce Department spokesperson said late on Tuesday that it was issuing new licensing requirements for exports of chips including Nvidia's H20, AMD's MI308 and their equivalents.
    China was AMD's second-largest market in 2024, generating about $6.23 billion in revenue and accounting for more than 24% of total sales.

    The $800 million charges relate to inventory, purchase commitments and reserves, AMD said in a filing.

    AMD "expects to apply for licenses but there is no assurance that licenses will be granted," it said.
    No licenses for graphics processor unit shipments into China have ever been granted by the U.S., Jefferies analysts said in a note on Tuesday.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the silent majority of investors.....the ignored and disrespected little retail investors.......YES.....the guts of the markets.

    Tariffs tanked the stock market. Did investors panic and sell? Here's the data.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...stock-market-panic-sell/83040188007/?tbref=hp

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "When the stock market goes haywire, the natural impulse might be to panic and sell.

    In early April, the stock market actually did go haywire. For analysts at Vanguard, the investment firm, the roller-coaster ride provided a timely opportunity to study how investors behave when the going gets tough.

    As it turns out, most investors passed the test.


    Vanguard tracked the behavior of its “self-directed” clients, the ones who make their own decisions about moving money in and out of the market, between April 3 and 9. Here’s what their analysis found:
    • Only 8.4% of investors executed trades on any of those days, reacting to the volatile market by buying or selling stocks.
    • Most investors who made trades did so on only one of the five trading days.
    • Of the investors who made trades, buyers outnumbered sellers nearly 5 to 1. In other words, few investors resorted to panic-selling.
    “The headline is, the vast majority of our self-directed investors stayed the course,” said James Martielli, head of investment and trading services at Vanguard.

    To Martielli, the data shows everyday investors rode out a turbulent stock market in relative calm, following the cardinal rules of investing: Buy stocks when prices are low, and sell when they’re high. Don’t make impulsive moves. Stick to the plan.

    “The good news is, we did not see a lot of folks across our very wide investor base ‘sell out,’” he said.

    In a turbulent market, it's hard not to panic

    There was plenty reason to panic in the early days of April. To recap:


    Lots of trading, but not much panic-buying

    On April 3, the first day of big market losses, the investment firm Schwab logged a busy day of trading. But most investors did not panic-sell.

    “We saw more self-directed investors be proactive, rather than reactive,
    ” said Patrick Means, vice president and branch manager at a Schwab branch in Dallas.

    On the whole, Schwab investors did more buying than selling in the week of April 3, said Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivatives strategist.

    Nvidia was the most-bought stock, he said, followed by Amazon, Apple and Tesla. Many investors purchased shares in indexed exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, “perhaps as a volatility-driven alternative to investing in individual stocks,” which can be riskier, Coffey said.

    BlackRock, too, found that investors mostly stayed calm during the turbulence of early April. The investment firm hosted virtual events to guide clients through the market chaos.

    Overwhelmingly, the questions were more along the lines of ‘What should I buy?’ rather than ‘What should I sell?’” said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. “It did feel as though investors were looking for buying opportunities more than they were panicking and selling.”

    We asked the experts to tell us what they have been telling jittery investors over the past two weeks. Here, then, are a few rules to remember when markets are reeling:

    Don’t try to time the market

    It might sound tempting to cash out of the stock market when the indexes are falling, sit out the downturn, and reinvest when markets hit bottom.

    The big problem with that strategy, experts say, is picking the right moment to cash out and cash in.
    “So often, some of the absolute worst days in the market are in close proximity to some of the absolute best days in the market,
    ” Akullian said. Case in point: April 9, when stocks rose dramatically after several days of losses.

    “The benefit of staying invested is, you’re going to be in the market on the days when there are the biggest gains,” Means said.

    That leads to our second tip:

    Stick to the plan

    Stocks rise and fall, sometimes dramatically. For long-term investors, experts say, the best strategy is usually to sit back and let the drama play out.

    Bear markets are usually shorter than bull markets, Schwab notes. Since 1966, the average bear market has lasted about 15 months, while the average bull market has endured for nearly six years.

    Following an investment plan over the long term takes discipline, and it’s one of Vanguard’s Principles for Investing Success. (The others: create clear, appropriate investment goals; maintain a balanced and diversified mix of investments; and minimize costs.)

    “You can’t control the markets. You don’t know what they’re going to do,” said Martielli of Vanguard. “You can control yourself, by not making emotional decisions.”
    While financial experts don’t like to see investors make impulsive trades, the turbulence of early April did create opportunities for anyone looking to buy stocks on sale.

    If you’re leery about the volatility of individual stocks, one alternative is to purchase broad index funds, which are generally less risky.

    Another option is to look “for stocks that are not quite as sensitive to swings,” said Akullian of BlackRock.

    Some mutual funds and ETFs are tailored to minimize volatility, with a portfolio that is more predictable than the market as a whole. BlackRock offers an explainer sheet on “minimum-volatility” investing."

    MY COMMENT

    Compare the above to what we saw in the financial media over the past couple of weeks. It was the end of the world....run for your lives. Imagine if the media had actually focused on and pushed the above which is the.....TRUTH.

    The other TRUTH is......as usual....it was the hedge Funds and Wall Street insiders and professionals that were running around with their hair on fire.

    Of course no one....especially the media....cares that the average investor is NOT freaiking out or doing anything.

     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BUMMER....especially for the media....they would have loved to be able to fear-monger this tittle data release today. Unfortunately for them they will have to keep those articles in the can till next time. Perhaps they can use them at that point to repeat....over, and over, and over.....the tariff story-lines that they have been pushing lately.

    I repeat......I see ZERO chance of a recession.

    Retail sales surge 1.4% in March, most since January 2023, as consumers 'front-loading' tariffs offers boost

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...t-loading-tariffs-offers-boost-123724940.html

    MY COMMENT

    Front loading of tariff driven purchases? BS. No regular consumer is out there doing this. People are simply living their lives.....and doing the best they can.

    Pure media and "expert"....FANTASY.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is the other economic release today. Consider the headline.......than.....look at the actual data.

    US manufacturing output slows in March; tariffs cloud hangs over factories

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-slows-march-140404754.html

    MY COMMENT

    Of course.....the actual data shows:

    "U.S. manufacturing production rose moderately in March"......

    "Factory output increased 0.3% last month after an upwardly revised 1.0% rebound in February, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production rising 0.3%......"

    In other words the TRUTH is.....the data was exactly as expected. WOW.
     
  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    The problem is, they have ignored some of those warning signs. Much like the "supply chain" issue we experienced back some time ago.

    Many of these companies have been there long term vs short term and their profits from it have been going up and up. Money is a powerful driver.

    I-phones, MacBooks, I-Pads, etc etc are made there and many, many parts for technology related items are there. This doesn't even include the slow down on some of the data centers not being able to source components reportedly.

    Yet, here we are.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is a classic example of turning a very positive story into a negative........"the sky is not falling....yet".

    Why not go all the way......"EARNINGS ARE NOT DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, TANKING THE WORLD ECONOMY, BANKRUPTING INVESTORS, AND DESTROYING YOUR LIFE..... YET"

    Big banks maintain 'the sky is not falling' amid Trump tariff turmoil. So far.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-...id-trump-tariff-turmoil-so-far-080012863.html

    "The message has really been that the sky is not falling," Saul Martinez, a bank analyst for HSBC, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

    Five of the country's largest banks over the past week posted first quarter rises in profits and revenue, driven in part by trading operations that benefited from the market volatility triggered by the initial rollout of Trump's first tariffs in February and March."
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Nothing to do today but have FUN with the media and how and why they report what they report.

    I saw a story with a headline today that said:

    "Investors are more worried about a 'hard landing' for the economy"

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa...stock-traders-post-record-haul-112048249.html

    it made me wonder who are those "investors"....are they the same people mentioned in the article above about how the typical retail investor is not in a panic at all?

    NO....the "investors" are the BIG BANK CEO's and management. And NO in reality they are not really concerned.....they are simply hedging their guidance after massively great earnings. NOT EXACTLY....my definition of "investors".
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Nothing else going on today of any interest to me as a long term investor. It will all work itself out just fine......and...it will not take the long term to do so. It will take about 2-8 months.

    My feel of where we are....the average investor is moving on.....having done NOTHING over the past couple of weeks.
     
  13. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of the "little investors" above. I have continued my contributions as usual. I believe most have done so, as evidenced by the story above.

    In my investing time, I have never sold out or "panic sold." In the dotcom bust I simply claimed ignorance...LOL and was really to busy with work to do anything and quite frankly probably didn't consider knowing enough to do much.

    The big one for me in the sense of realizing and understanding more about it was the 2008 crisis. I remember thinking....this might just be it. A very scary time. I will admit the thought crossed my mind more than once. However, I just hunkered down and kept doing my contributions. I remember thinking that it was just going up in smoke. I remained steadfast....despite it being a very difficult to ignore. Sure enough, it passed eventually, but it was a real moment and an invaluable experience.

    Of course, staying with it made a huge difference in the long run. I got some bargain prices. I survived the storm and never sold a single share. Looking back, I had no way of knowing if that was going to work out. It certainly could have went the other direction. I will never forget that experience.

    It did make me realize that things can get bad....really bad and to learn from it. It also gave me the optimism that "things" do pass. We just don't know how or when at the time. Of course, time and where one is at in the journey should always be a factor in your plans.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Since investing is a....WASTELAND.....right now, I will simply entertain myself talking about art.

    I have SIX paintings pending right now with museum staff to potentially be included in a museum exhibition to be held in 2026. I should hear something in the next month or so. I would be happy to get 2-3 of them accepted.

    I continue to take every possible opportunity to promote and get exposure for any of our paintings. Number one, I feel it is the responsibility of a collector to share with the public and make art available for viewing. Number two, it is in my self interest to promote my art.....even if I have no intention of selling anything right now.

    If all six get accepted I am going to have to live with some bare walls for a few months. At this point we have approximately 66 pieces of art in the house....about 50 paintings and about 16 sculpture.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above.....the art markets in general and for what we specifically collect continues to be VERY STRONG. I watch most of the major auctions that deal in our type of art.....Western Art and American Impressionism. Prices have been strong for years and to start this year what I am seeing is a BOOMING market.

    Besides the enjoyment.......art and other "things" as an asset......is part of our long term financial plan. As I have mentioned before...our net worth is founded on four categories:

    1. Art, antiques, and other personal property that has a market value.
    2. Stock investments.
    3. Real property (our free and clear house)
    4. Cash and cash equivalents (Social Security benefits and Income Annuities)
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    And......BOOM.....the DOW is now green.
     
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    From the little guys....to the big guys. They are apparently "thriving" in this environment. Just a few clips from an article below.

    • Wall Street banks just posted their biggest-ever haul from stock trading as the opening months of President Donald Trump’s tenure led to upheavals across asset classes.
    • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America each notched record equities trading revenue in the first quarter.
    • When including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the six largest U.S. banks put up $16.3 billion in stock trading in the quarter, 33% more than a year earlier.
    Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America each notched record equities trading revenue in the first quarter, with the first three producing roughly $4 billion in revenue apiece.

    The performance, which helped every bank except Wells Fargo beat expectations for the quarter, was deemed “spectacular,” “extraordinary” and “awesome” by analysts in conference calls over the past week.


     
  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Some clips below from an article with Treasury Sec. Bessent.

    I am not a CEO he would be referring to, but my response to his "advice" if I were. Maybe we could get back to business if we were not dealing with your 3rd grade tariff charts. Maybe we could, if we knew what the "plan" was. Maybe we could, if we weren't getting different messages and changes almost every few days. Maybe you should spend more time conducting and making these "deals" instead of on TV telling us how to do our job.

    And please....spare us the condescending, know it all attitude about Wall Street and Main Street. I would think that with "the phone ringing off the hook" and "dignitaries flying in from everywhere" he would be tied up with deal making.


    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to America's biggest CEOs: Stop worrying


    US Treasury Scott Bessent has a message to powerful public company CEOs: Stop worrying about tariffs, and get back to business.

    "We're going to have a lot more clarity on the way forward [on tariffs] over the next 90 days," Bessent told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Tuesday.

    Bessent added, "They'll [CEOs] also have clarity on tax and on deregulation. I remember in 2017 I heard a lot of the same things because the tax deal wasn't done until right before Christmas in 2017. And it was the same thing. We can't plan. We can't do this. We need clarity. So, you know, we're going to have clarity on tax. We're going to have clarity on deregulation."

    Bessent said about the recession concerns from Dimon and Solomon: "Look, that's their job is to be concerned. But again, I think that there is all this chatter on tariffs and what we're worried about. And, you know, I come from Wall Street, I think Wall Street can continue to do great, but we are focused on Main Street."



     
  19. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Appears another opportunity to pick up some shares if one is in a shopping mood today.

    We know the rule. Buy today it goes down further tomorrow. Pass on today and it will surely go up from here.:)
     

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