Looking ahead. Trump wants Powell out of the Fed. Waiting in the wings is Kevin Warsh https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-wants-fire-fed-chair-090036541.html Here is a little review of the background and thinking of the person that is on the list to replace Powell when his term is up.
i find the big averages data that I posted above interesting. With all the turmoil and drama and fear that was rampant in the media and elsewhere over the past three weeks....you would expect the markets to be WAY down. BUT....what do we see......the DOW down by less than 8%....FOR THE YEAR......the SP500 down just below 10%......and....the NASDAQ down by about 15.5%. NONE of these are shocking numbers and I would not call any of these a significant drop. Even my own result as of the close Friday......down 13.8%......FOR THE YEAR......is far from what I would have expected based on the tone of the media content over the past three weeks. The DOW and SP500 are not even in correction....yet. I consider my result and the NASADAQ as being in mild correction range. The TURMOIL and DRAMA.....so far....is way out of line with REALITY. Lets keep things in perspective.....in 2024 I ended the year at about +65%. Now I am down by about 13.5%. NOT exactly a big crisis. AND....at some point over the next 1-6 months when the BULL MARKET comes roaring back....I expect to make all those losses disappear.
I was thinking kind of the same thing with the broad index above. With it being roughly down about 10% YTD with all that has went on. One thing that has helped us in this stretch was that one big gainer day. It gave us a little boost. What a ride it was during that short time span. I went poking around at some of the favorites usually mentioned here. NVDA -26.62%, AAPL -19.22%, MSFT -12.14%, GOOG -19.55%, AMZN -21.62%, META -16.31%, TSLA -36.36%. Some old favorites....Phillip Morris (PM) +34.77%, KO +18.05%, BRKB +14.88%. Of course there are others, but that's just a few. I thought it was interesting. Not implying or suggesting anything, this is over a very short time frame and things will be in favor over others at any particular time. I think it was TireSmoke that mentioned a week or so back, when we were riding the waves up and down, how this made him appreciate being a long termer. I agreed wholeheartedly with that. The markets can turn on a dime, sometimes with little warning. All of the previous predictions, guesses, and forecasts quickly get revised or adjusted. All of this about a bear market, correction, recession, no recession, or bull market by folks saying it's going to start here or end there....all have one thing in common....they don't know. All looking for some justification they "called" it right at some point. For me, as a long term investor, it is all about the plan in place. Yes, the market gyrations are noticeable and all of the surrounding noise. The plan is built for it. I don't worry about when this "event" is going to start or end. The point is to construct something that can handle most of it. I don't know why people torture themselves with it. Yes, I do realize there are folks who are paid to forecast and all of that. I understand it and get that part of it. And I suppose it gives us all something to talk about and maybe have some fun guessing about it ourselves at times. I know there are others that actively trade and paying attention and timing things are part of their process....so no shade to them for doing what they enjoy doing.
Yes it is ALL about the plan as a whole and the portfolio as a whole. Look at those YTD figures above for my TECH stocks: NVDA -26.62%, AAPL -19.22%, MSFT -12.14%, GOOG -19.55%, AMZN -21.62%, Some big appearing numbers here and yet my entire portfolio with my two funds.....SP500 and Fidelity Contra Fund..... and nine stocks is only down by.....13.5%.....as a whole. My portfolio, as a whole, is holding up very nicely and limiting my losses....so far. AND......I love seeing all those big losses in the tech stocks above that I own. It means that those holdings some time over the rest of the year are......"likely".....to all make some really big gains from where they are right now. I believe I have HUGE upside in those stocks. If my portfolio can continue to do its job as a whole and hold my losses in a moderate range....I will be all set up for the later gains when those dirt cheap tech stocks make an INEVITABLE come-back. At that point I expect to be at an all time high. It is impossible to know when this will happen......but there is no doubt that it will happen.
.The hangover in the market at the moment swirls around the tariff stuff. Whether we like it, dislike it, agree or disagree....that is the fly in the ointment. My hope (which is not a plan by the way) is that we end up somewhere with the "porridge just right." The global economic machine is big. I won't belabor my opinions much further....unless I just need to vent.. One thing about it, it is going to play out right in front of us. There will be no shadows to sink back into, there will be no disowning the idea/plan, there will be nowhere to cast blame. Although, I think we are seeing some early signs of that already. Regardless, no tinkering or changes to my plan. Just keep on course and see it through.
In addition, we have a good place here with many diverse investors to share thoughts with. I certainly enjoy everyone’s posts and ideas about the market and other things. I think it helps all of us to be able to follow others progress and go through whatever this old crazy investing world throws at us.
You're a funny guy. If he shot someone point blank, he would blame the bullet. It can be (and will be) someone else's fault if it does not turn out as advertised. I'm going with Crooked Hillary™.
Yes, I know politicians rarely, if ever, take responsibility for their agendas when they don't turn out as planned. What I meant by that section of the post is that the author and ownership of this specific trade plan is pretty clear at this point. The problem, historically, with many of our elected officials is they over promise and under deliver. We will get the answer soon enough.
I was just messing with you. Probably should have put a smiley face in there somewhere. Gonna be a long 3.75 years.
What REALLY counts......this week and......long term. Even if it is all ignored. Keep your eye on the ball. Tesla and Alphabet Report This Week. They'll Set the Tone for Big Tech Earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-alphabet-report-week-theyll-090000391.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Takeaways Tesla is set to report earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with Google parent Alphabet due to release its results late Thursday. Their results could set the tone for Big Tech earnings as the first members of the Magnificent 7 to report this season. Meta and Microsoft are set to report next Wednesday, with Amazon and Apple scheduled to follow a day later Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are due to report earnings this week. What arrives from the first members of the Magnificent 7 to report this earnings season could set the tone for what could be a rough quarter for Big Tech. The year so far hasn't been kind to the group of tech giants’ stocks, all of which have all suffered double-digit declines. The best-performing members of the group, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META), are down over 10% in 2025, while Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) have lost more than 20%. Tesla (TSLA) has seen its stock fall over 40%. Worries about tech’s spending on artificial intelligence, competition from Chinese rivals, and the possibility of an economic downturn driven by President Donald Trump’s tariffs have pressured the group of stocks, with investors watching closely how companies tackle the uncertainty. "We expect hardly any tech companies to give guidance over the next month,” Wedbush analysts told clients Thursday, citing an increasingly restrictive trade environment after Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) last week warned they would take a hit from new restrictions on chip exports to China. A 'Unique Position' for Tesla; Possible Tariff 'Ripple Effects' for Alphabet Policy-related headwinds could be particularly strong for Tesla, due to report Tuesday, after signs of declining sales in many of the EV maker's major markets and ongoing political backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration. Still, analysts are more bullish than bearish on the stock, pointing to Tesla's developments related to self-driving cars and AI. "Tesla is in a unique position: its opportunity in physical AI is so compelling that investors are willing to look past what will likely be a difficult year," Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster wrote recently. "In my view, 2025 doesn’t matter; the business is poised for meaningful improvement starting next year." Alphabet, which is due to release results Thursday, could be better-equipped along with Meta and Amazon to weather the new trade environment than many others in the internet sector given their scale, Morgan Stanley analysts said recently. However, they added, the "ripple effects" of tariff worries, including weakness in digital ad demand, could weigh on the sector broadly. Meta and Microsoft are set to report next Wednesday. Amazon and Apple are scheduled to follow a day later. Nvidia is due to report in late May." MY COMMENT Of course.....it will not matter how good these earnings are......they will NEVER satisfy the short term opinion media.
Yes, earnings are going to pick up speed here pretty quick as mentioned. Of course, most of the recent stuff has not made it's way into the details yet. I think most of the actual earnings should be okay at this point. As mentioned, the question will be if all the noise drowns some of the good reports out. I also wonder how many companies will wade off into guidance and future plans regarding the tariffs. Some of that is still up in the air and could change maybe in the coming weeks/months. The US/China spat has pretty much shut off trade between the two at the current rates. Maybe in a few weeks/months there will be more clarity on most of the related tariffs. One issue is, the longer any of it goes, the more some of it will began to work it's way into the economy.
I was visiting with a co-worker the other day that is about to retire in the next few months. In our discussion we kind of got off on the subject of (SORR) sequence of return risks, which is a topic that comes up sometimes in retirement planning. Jokingly, in a way they talked about how they dodged all of the covid mess and high inflation during that time frame and was thankful for still working. Now it's something else to contend with. Of course they are not changing their mind or anything with their plan.
"Little more than a speed bump". That is about right. It is just about impossible to find investing content that is actually about investing at the moment. Even the financial media is totally infected with politics. In the long run....well actually in the medium run.....we will see....as usual.....that politics and all the media turmoil was a big waste of time, energy and brain power. I will CONTINUE to IGNORE IT ALL on here as usual. It is a total waste of time to get into politics on this thread. Those that do not agree with me.......I will never convince them otherwise. Those that do agree with me....it will simply end up as an echo-chamber......and will not change anything. POLITICS and SOCIAL ISSUES are poison on threads like this. It simply leads to turmoil, hurt feelings, and disruption. As to allowing your politics to impact your investing behavior.......BEWARE.....it is the killer of business objectivity. My total clinical objectivity is focused on business, business, and business. Big banks maintain 'the sky is not falling' amid Trump tariff turmoil. So far. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-...id-trump-tariff-turmoil-so-far-080012863.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Big banks are offering the latest view of how their customers are faring amid President Trump's tariff turmoil, and it's not all bad — at least for now. "The message has really been that the sky is not falling," Saul Martinez, a bank analyst for HSBC, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. Five of the country's largest banks over the past week posted first quarter rises in profits and revenue, driven in part by trading operations that benefited from the market volatility triggered by the initial rollout of Trump's first tariffs in February and March. Collectively, net profits at JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS) amounted to $35 billion, a 13% increase from the year-ago quarter. Revenue also rose at all of these banks. Trading revenue alone jumped 17% to more than $36 billion. Many banks said their consumer customers were still spending, defaults were still manageable, and businesses were not experiencing distress despite the uncertainty about the months ahead. None of the institutions with big Wall Street footprints updated their earnings outlooks for the rest of the year, either. What these results didn't include, however, was the volatile period that followed Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, which took place two days after the quarter ended. Stocks and bonds plunged and have yet to fully recover, ushering in new uncertainty about the economy and the safety of US assets. "We're surprised about the degree of ongoing firmwide strength at all 5 big banks ... and the more than expected upbeat views," said Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo in a Tuesday note. "To us, it all says that events since Apr 2 can still be little more than a speed bump, so long as policy moves faster to help ease most of the uncertainty," he added, in reference to promised deregulation of the banking industry expected from the Trump administration. Not that banks and their top executives were entirely upbeat. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said that the prospect of a recession "has increased." JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy faces "considerable turbulence," with a recession as a "likely outcome." In such a scenario, he added, "earnings won't be great and the stocks will go down." But many bankers were noticeably more optimistic. The word "recession" did not come up once on Citigroup's Tuesday earnings calls with analysts. Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, also offered an optimistic vision of the current turmoil. "When all is said and done, and longstanding trade imbalances and other structural shifts are behind us, the U.S. will still be the world's leading economy," she said in a statement with the bank's Tuesday earnings release. Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, went out of his way on Tuesday to note that his bank's research team doesn't see a recession happening in 2025. US consumers, he added, keep "pushing money into the economy," and the lender's business clients "remain profitable, liquid and have strong results." But "nobody has a perfect crystal ball," Moynihan acknowledged, noting that "we potentially face a changing economy in the future." Some banks even showed a rise in investment banking income during the first quarter, defying predictions of a slowdown. Executives acknowledged some deals were now on hold due to uncertainties, but many described the pullbacks as temporary rather than long-lasting. "I'm saying pause versus delete," Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick told analysts of the current investment banking environment. "We don't know whether the economy is going to contract." Even amid the optimism, there were signs that banks are preparing for harder times. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo (WFC) added $8.4 billion in provisions to account for future loan losses. The figure was 29% higher than the year-ago period and 9% higher than the previous quarter. "We're still in a cloudy period. It's going to be choppy from here, and it's exhausting,” Ken Leon, an analyst for CFRA Research, told Yahoo Finance." MY COMMENT ACTUALLY.....the big banks above LOVE the current environment. Their AI trading platforms are making massive money trading the daily headlines and opinion content masquerading as fact. Their human traders are also making big money with all the recent volatility. AND.....the cherry on top of the sundae......they are not seeing any slowdown in their consumer business, defaults, etc, etc, etc.
I say.....if you immerse yourself in politics in your daily life.....it is IMPOSSIBLE to not have all that "stuff" seep into your investing and business outlook and behavior. I simply avoid it all.....in fact.....the vast majority of people that I know have no idea of my politics. Of course they all think that I agree with them since I dont argue or talk about it.
As to the above: Four money traps to avoid in a volatile market, according to ‘Fast Money’ trader Tim Seymour https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/4-m...the-market-fast-money-trader-tim-seymour.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) “Fast Money” trader Tim Seymour wants to help investors avoid common money traps that could leave them exposed to losses, particularly in a volatile market. He is out with a shortlist of four tips to deliver some peace of mind when things are going south. Tip No. 1: Don’t have more money in the market than you can stomach. Whether it is margin calls or anxiety about losing money you can’t afford to lose, bad decisions are often made during desperation. Tip No. 2: Don’t hope that you get back to breakeven. If you’re only holding a long position because you don’t want to lose money on the trade, you risk losing more. Bottom line: Own a stock based on merit, not hope. Tip No. 3: Don’t assume yesterday’s investment rationale will work tomorrow. Ask yourself, “Has something changed in the fundamental case or is it a case of market volatility?” If something changed, make adjustments. Tip No. 4: Don’t cut your flowers and keep your weeds. Often, the highest quality companies will outperform in a down market. Bad position? Circle back to No. 2." MY COMMENT Some pretty simple basic stuff here. Kind of like advocating for long term investing......without....getting sucked into the short term "stuff".
I have noticed over the past few years that......EVERY TV show......is now basically a soap opera. Same with news content....it is all basically one big SOAP OPERA. It is ALL designed to hook your brain and body chemistry and addict you to their content. As usual......"YOU".....are the product.
