Yes, the media and financial news is loaded with all sorts of stuff. It really is nothing new. We just have maybe more access to it now. As for our thread, it will survive. As mentioned a few times, I have at times went back and visited various parts of the thread. Even well before I joined. This thread has a history of discussions on elections, government policies, economic events, and even politics. There have even been several spirited discussions about these issues. Quite frankly, way more so than anything here recently. Don't take my word for it, take a trip down memory lane yourself. Many of those discussions were quite specific and a wide variety of opinions about all of the above. If this thread survived some of those spirited conversations then.....we are certainly in no danger today. This thread began in late 2018....which is not that long ago from an investing stand point. It has some very good information, because it is a culmination of different people, investors, ages, and even opinions. It will continue to be.
Nice open today.......well.....at least we are open that is about it. The FED was out in force over the weekend and they continue to TRASH the markets and the economy. I dont know how the markets, the economy and investors ever got along before the current trend of the FED incessantly talking.....which started over the past 10-20 years. We are now in the final full week of April and closing in on the end of the first 1/3 of the year. I would guess that the correction is going to continue for at least another 1-2 months......MINIMUM....and probably more likely 2-6 months. That means we will simply have to sit through the SAME "stuff" that we have been sitting through for the last four months. It will continue to be a very erratic and volatile.....TRADERS.....market. Earnings are not going to matter in the slightest. Any good earnings will simply be discounted in the financial media with the response that......well.....these earnings do not reflect the tariffs. We are going to be stuck in a.....groundhog day situation of fear mongering......the FED, inflation, tariffs, recession, interest rates, the dollar, etc, etc, etc.
At least i am making money with my........GASP......gold and silver. I am closing in on a value of $100,000. Of course it just sits there in a big off-site safe.....and does nothing. I have not added anything to it in the last 2 years. It got high enough in value that I am hesitant to put more in. Any cash that I have for investing has been recently earmarked for the markets and stocks and funds.
Well that did not take long.......I have now completed my daily review of media content. NOTHING new at all and nothing of any relevance to LONG TERM INVESTING. So.....for me.....nothing worth putting up on here. For actual investors....we continue in GUT-CHECK mode. We have not seen a correction for a couple of years and it remains to be seen when or if retail investors will eventually be driven to seek safety and bail out of the markets. If it happens it will be classic..... CAPITULATION. I am not sure this sort of behavior is really relevant to the modern markets with the current 401K system of retirement which basically fosters continuous lifetime investing.
We had a good EASTER yesterday with a little family dinner. It all started with mini-quiche, deviled eggs, traditional Easter candy, cheese dip and crackers. We than moved on to traditional chicken and dumplings, salad, corn, and corn muffins. It all ended up with a large coconut cream pie and a classic Easter bunny cake......the one made with three round cakes that are cut to make bunny ears and a bow tie. Tons of food left over at the end.....so everyone went home with big containers of left-overs. Most of the BUNNY cake was left over except for the bow tie....which we ate. The rest of the cake......the entire head and face of the bunny.... went to the local Fire Station.
I am starting the week in perfect fashion.....every stock in the red. It is another week where I WISH I had money to put into the markets. it is a GOLDEN ERA of low prices for great businesses. HERE is a perfect example: Nvidia Investors Balk at Beaten Down Valuation as Risks Mount https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-investors-balk-beaten-down-110030282.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Nvidia Corp. shares are trading near their lowest valuation of the artificial intelligence era, but a growing list of perils has investors cautious about taking advantage of the dip. The latest shock for the chipmaker came after saying last week US authorities have barred it from selling the H20 chip line in China, a move that will cost it billions of dollars. The news added to concerns that spending on AI could be poised to slow, especially as the escalating trade war further clouds overall prospects for economic growth. “The outlook isn’t as compelling as it was, and you really have to make a lot of assumptions here, about tariffs, China, hyperscalers, the macro,” said Krishna Chintalapalli, portfolio manager and tech sector head at Parnassus Investments. “Because all those things are compounding, the level of uncertainty is much higher than it has been.” Shares of Nvidia have dropped more than 25% this year, roughly twice the decline of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Chintalapalli views the stock as fairly valued, even with shares trading at 21 times estimated earnings, and well below their long-term average. The valuation is not far from the S&P 500 Index’s multiple of 19. The stock fell as much as 4% in early trading Monday. That Nvidia only trades at a slight premium to the market is notable given the company’s growth is expected to be dramatically faster, with revenue seen rising 57% in the current year, compared with 4.7% for the S&P. The growth largely reflects how so-called hyperscalers — Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc., which are among Nvidia’s biggest customers — have allocated tens of billions of dollars building out AI infrastructure. “If you want to buy here, you’re probably betting on hyperscaler demand for AI,” Chintalapalli said. While the intent to spend on AI is there, “they can always slow down on the margins” and “you can’t make a call on the pace of investment, given the macro and tariff issues.” Nvidia’s share slump and resulting hit to valuation underline the perils the chipmaker faces from a potential slowdown in AI spending and the Trump administration’s attempts to reset global trade relations. Should the trade tensions tip the economy into recession, all bets about future earnings are off, undermining the valuation case. Downward Revisions The analyst consensus for Nvidia’s full-year earnings has dropped 1.5% over the past month, while the view for revenue is down 1.2%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Microsoft has announced plans to pull back on data center projects, and while others such as Alphabet have maintained capital spending plans for the current year, the outlook for 2026 remains uncertain. Investors had already been debating the outlook for AI spending, ever since China’s DeepSeek emerged in January, claiming performance that is comparable to US models despite costing less and requiring fewer chips. Still, as tariff talks progress, investors are starting to see that demand for AI gear leaves Nvidia less exposed to trade risks than some of its mega cap peers. Bloomberg Intelligence wrote earlier this month that “AI-focused players like Nvidia appear most insulated” from tariffs, while other chipmakers — especially those exposed to end markets like PCs, handsets, autos, and industrials — “will face indirect pressure via demand destruction.” The tariff situation has been incredibly volatile. A recent reprieve on smartphones, computers and other electronics seemed to have removed an overhang from the shares, though Trump maintained the measure is temporary. Last week, ASML Holding NV sold off after it reported first-quarter orders that were weaker than expected, and it warned it didn’t know how to quantify the impact of tariffs. Separately, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. affirmed its outlook, suggesting demand for AI-related chips remains strong, although analysts said tariffs are a key question mark. “Politics will remain part of the investment landscape for the foreseeable future, and the landscape will continue to evolve,” said Daniel Flax, a senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman. “This will impact many companies, including Nvidia, but I think it will continue to execute and innovate, and that will continue to drive growth. I think shares look pretty attractive if you have a 12- or 18-month time horizon.” Long-Term Bulls Analysts have stayed broadly positive, as nearly 90% of the firms tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying the stock. Furthermore, with shares trading more than 60% below the average analyst price target, implied returns for the stock are among the highest over the past few years. Those who are still long-term bulls see the recent weakness as a buying opportunity. In the short-term, “the news removes a major overhang — the stock H20 chipis more attractive today than yesterday,” Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer at SPEAR Invest said Wednesday, after Nvidia’s initial dip on the H20 chip news, adding that in the long-run, Nvidia not having access to the Chinese market would be a negative. Shana Sissel agrees that the current valuation marks a good time to buy, especially ahead of the company’s late May earnings report, which she expects will show signs of Chinese customers front-loading purchases in anticipation of tariffs. “I think it’s attractive,” she said. “I’m obviously a bull on it. I’ve always liked Nvidia stock.”" MY COMMENT Of course "I" am a....PERMA-BULL on the markets and the large cap business leaders. This is simply a function of being a long term investor and not concerned with all the short term drama and noise. And.....yes...I believe we are basically STILL in a BULL MARKET environment.....even though it is currently being impacted by a classic correction.
I was reading this article on the news. https://expresso.pt/economia/econom...inco-minutos-para-fazer-frente-a-byd-81ffb174 Since you still dont dominate portuguese a short resume for you: chinese car batery company CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology), main bateriy suplier for Tesla p.e., just created 3 new batery technologies they promise will revolutionize market. CATL announced a “Freevory Dual Power Battery” that can provide a maximum range of 1500 kilometers on a single charge. They also presented a new version of its “Shenxing” battery with the capacity to store energy for 520 kilometers in just five minutes! Nice!
I thought this was interesting, tax-free Foreign Trade Zones. Companies large and small are turning to special U.S. Customs-approved sites to avoid, at least temporarily, the payment of new tariffs implemented by President Trump. These locations, called foreign trade zones (FTZs) and bonded warehouses, are specially designated, secured storage or manufacturing sites approved by U.S. Customs where freight is not subject to U.S. duties or excise taxes. Duties are only paid by the importer when the goods are transferred out of the FTZ or bonded warehouse for U.S. market consumption. “A year ago, an FTZ was a nonstarter because of the investment a company would have to make,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy for Descartes Global Trade Intelligence, which provides FTZ technology system assistance. “Now they are crunching the numbers to see if it makes financial sense, and for some it does,” Wood said, including smaller companies that are starting to consider FTZs as tariff rates soar. There is a 90-day pause in place for most countries before new tariffs hit, though tariffs for Chinese goods are now as high as 145%. FTZs enable U.S. importers and manufacturers to store imports of finished goods for an indefinite amount of time without paying trade duties. Freight imported under bond and placed in a bonded warehouse can be stored for up to five years starting the day it was imported into the country. Depending on the day the freight is moved out of an FTZ or bonded warehouse, importers might be able to pay either reduced customs duties, taxes, or fees, or none at all — a strategic approach to import management also known as an “inverted tariff.” The deferment of duties, taxes and fees normally applicable upon importation can significantly enhance a company’s financial position by providing cost savings, operational flexibility, and improved cash flow. Jeffrey J. Tafel, president of the National Association of Foreign Trade-Zones, says his organization started to see an increase in membership during the 2024 presidential election, and registrations have continued to pour in, with membership is at an all-time high. “With tariff changes happening so quickly, there are companies that are looking for FTZ storage space in order to defer the duties until they are able to decide how they want to proceed with the merchandise, much of which was purchased before the tariffs were known,” said Tafel. “Any time tariffs are in the news, we see an increase in interest in all programs that help U.S. companies mitigate the impact.” Tafel said there is also increased interest regarding FTZ grantees, which are authorized by the Foreign-Trade Zones Board to establish, operate, and maintain a foreign-trade zone, with inquiries up as much as two to four times what is typical. FTZs were created by Congress in the 1930s to incentivize domestic investment in U.S. The foreign-trade zones program employs more than 550,000 American workers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico, and in virtually every industry sector. Companies can choose to not ship goods at all, and recent data out of Asia shows a steep decline in manufacturing orders and freight vessel sailings. Bringing the goods in, and using duty-free zones, is the other option. “Recent tariff changes have made FTZs more appealing, as other duty reduction or recovery options, like duty drawback, are not eligible for the new tariffs,” said Chelsea Pavona Gardner, a Maersk spokeswoman for North America. “As a result, companies that previously dismissed FTZs are now considering them as a viable strategy,” she said. “We’re at the point where we have a combination of clients waiting the next 30 days to see what happens,” said Janet Labuda, head of customs and trade issues at Maersk. “We have others taking product and moving into bonded warehouses for 30 days or so to see if any of this blows over and then extract it out at the duties being charged that day,” she added. Setting up an FTZ can be costly, with charges for professional services to navigate the initial process and approval of the zone usage, as well as trained staff and dedicated IT systems to manage the zone once operational. According to Gardner, using an FTZ depends more on the scale of a company’s import activities rather than the industry itself, but the primary users of FTZs in the past have been consumer goods and retail, automotive, aerospace, and electronics. In addition to warehouse storage, manufacturing plants, or portions of plants, can become an FTZ in cases where a company’s components have a higher tariff than the finished good. Once the finished good is released from the FTZ, the company pays a lower tariff. There is also an option for companies to have Customs approve the scrap of any leftover material not used in the manufacturing process, which would not be subjected to duty. This exemption can also include exporting the product to another country. Jordan Dewart, president of Redwood Logistics Mexico, said his company has been fielding many prospects and requests for FTZ services. While the Trump administration has said it is in talks with 75 countries for trade deals since announcing new tariffs, Dewart said the surge in FTZ interest is a sign that importers are worried about how long the trade war could last. “It seems customers are looking for a solution in case the tariffs stick long term." (CNBC).
A little update on reported trade with Mexico. Mexico’s Sheinbaum Says No Deal in Trump Call, Talks Persist Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said there’s no agreement yet with her US counterpart Donald Trump after the two spoke last week about lifting US tariffs. The Mexican head of state said on Monday that they had discussed an existing 25% tariff on imported vehicles and an equivalent one on steel and aluminum. “We didn’t reach an agreement but we did establish our arguments. In the case of steel and aluminum, we established that we have a deficit. The US exports more steel and aluminum to Mexico than Mexico to the US,” Sheinbaum said at her daily press briefing on Monday. “Our argument is that, just like in other cases, those goods that enter under the free trade agreement should have zero tariffs.” Mexican officials have emphasized that their country has so far avoided tariffs on all its exports as Trump originally threatened, but Sheinbaum is looking to guarantee further protections for key sectors. She has stressed the value of the USMCA, the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and the US. A broader concern is whether international investors will continue to help drive the nation’s growth amid the uncertainty. The fee on the small portion of goods that fall outside the free trade agreement could be up for further discussion with the Trump administration, Sheinbaum told press. She added that talks between high-level officials were ongoing after the call. “There’s communication on the level of ministers of commerce and economy, and on the level of presidents,” Sheinbaum said. Trump in a social media post last week had said the call with Sheinbaum was “very productive.” Broader Concern The US-made portion of finished vehicles remains exempt from the tariffs, and the Mexican Economy Ministry has said it aims for progress in talks before May 3, when levies specifically on auto parts are expected to take effect. Automakers including Stellantis NV Motor Corp had halted some production in Mexico when the duties went into effect in early April. Other carmakers said they would no longer be paying overtime. The industry is responsible for about 30% of Mexico’s total exports by Sheinbaum’s account, which mean broad tariffs could deal a huge blow to manufacturing in her first year in office. Both countries are also dueling over their shared use of water along the US-Mexico border and on whether Mexican growers are undercutting the prices of tomatoes. The government has looked for ways to show it’s a willing partner with the Trump administration. At present, Sheinbaum’s diplomatic tactics have helped her approval rating remain at 83%, according to the latest El Financiero poll. Sheinbaum’s government has not imposed reciprocal tariffs on the US, preventing a greater spat with Trump and winning her praise among some voters.
Looks like we are going the wrong way today in the market. All sectors solidly in the red at the moment.
The White House is hosting major retailers today to discuss tariffs. Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Lowes, and Target are reportedly among the group attending the "meeting." It would be interesting to be "a fly on the wall" in that little get together. Maybe they should consider doing a "pay-per view" of all these meetings. Throw in the "meetings" with all of these countries as well. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-meet-retailers-including-walmart-164424018.html
Here is a pretty good description of the recent markets.....including this week: "They call it stormy Monday But Tuesday's just as bad They call it stormy Monday But Tuesday's just as bad Lord, and Wednesday's worse And Thursday's all so bad The eagle flies on Friday" IGNORING IT ALL today......but....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual. I took this morning to work on some charts as I will be back in the studio on Wednesday. WHATEVER...........and......very happy that I do not have to rely on stock market money in retirement.
I do my bills on the 28th of each month. I will as usual be buying a single share of PLTR and a single share of NVDA when I do the bills. Looking forward to some extreme bargain prices. Just letting you guys know that accordingly the markets will probably take off like a rocket for one day on the 28th....just to screw me out of bargain basement prices.....and than after I buy those two shares it will drop like a rock on the 29th.
I have been involved with a little LAWSUIT for the past 1.5 years. I am part of a group of people that were injured by an infection caused by a food product. My case is minimal...probably worth about $8000 to $12,000 after attorney fees. I am hoping that it settles some time over the next 6 months and if this market drop continues here is my plan for the money. Since this is...... "found money"....."mad money".....if the markets are still down significantly when it comes my way..... I plan to put half into a 2x leverage NVDA ETF and half into a 2x leverage PLTR ETF. This will simply be "play money" so I am willing to go outside my usual investing comfort zone....especially if we are way down in the markets at the time I see any money. BUT....there is no guarantee that I will see any of this money in the next six months. My claim is tied to many much larger claims and so far NONE of the pending cases involved in this event have settled. OK......I am just fantasizing about what to do with this money....if it comes during this correction.....but that is my current plan. NO GUTS NO GLORY.
As the song said: "They call it stormy Monday"........and....it was. I take solace that I ended up above my low of the day although I did not have a single stock in the green. It is a market that does not care what you own......basically the market right now does not care about anything fundamental to investing. I also got beat by the SP500 today by....0.99%. Remember for tomorrow......"But Tuesday's just as bad". In the current market environment I guess investing according to song lyrics is just about as good as anything else. I actually feel good about how my portfolio closed today.....much better than earlier in the day.
I picked up a few shares (broad index) today. That probably resulted in the gap narrowing into the close.
So to continue my market analysis for this week.....we know that Monday through Thursday are going to suck: "They call it stormy Monday But Tuesday's just as bad They call it stormy Monday But Tuesday's just as bad Lord, and Wednesday's worse And Thursday's all so bad" BUT....the question is what to expect on Friday: "The eagle flies on Friday" I can see two situations. Either the Eagle flying on Friday means that the markets will take off on Friday......or.....the Eagle flying on Friday represents the American Eagle on my USA currency...... flying out of my account. A definite investing conundrum.
AND....for many people this Thursday will be a critical day. NO....not because of the GOOGL earnings. Because of the NFL draft. I mean.....come on....lets focus on what is really important.
