It is now April 21.....and the pain continues. BUT.....I see that so far the market bottom was on April 8....at least for the SP500. On that day it hit 4982. As of today we are at 5158. So....lets see if the markets can hold that bottom. Baby steps.
DUH.........the obvious......but never a bad thing to repeat. Stock market volatility offers 2 important lessons for investors: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ns-for-investors-morning-brief-100046588.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US stock market can't find steady footing. On Monday, stocks took another drubbing as the S&P 500 fell 2.4%. On the one hand, a sharp reversal from the historic one-day jump we saw in the index just two weeks ago. On the other hand, a state of affairs that is completely consistent with stock market history. "The biggest down days tend to be followed by the biggest up days and this pattern once again is playing out," Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, wrote in a note earlier this month. Lerner looked at historically notable two-day slides in the market — 1987, a series of days in 2008, March 2020, April 3-4 — and found that each was followed by two-day bounces in excess of 9%. The 9.5% rally seen in the S&P 500 on April 9 fits the bill. And should the US economy tip into recession, the one- and two-year returns from the market's bottom tend to be memorable, with the S&P 500 averaging 40% and 54% over those periods, respectively. The S&P 500 averages an annual gain closer to 10%. Noting that volatility spikes come in clusters has become de rigueur in discussing the stock market. And this new axiom also offers two distinct lessons for two different classes of investor. For savers using the stock market's long and growing history of usually going up over time, this volatility is the price of admission for realizing those gains. A high-yield savings account, for instance, might offer someone 4% or so on their cash. The S&P 500 has offered investors closer to 10% a year the last 70 years. One return is, literally, money in the bank. The other is how you grow $10,000 into a million dollars in under 50 years. For professional investors, these volatility clusters are reminders that the market falling off a cliff in a few short days is the time to lock in. As Lerner highlighted in the same investor note, portfolios that miss the S&P 500's best day since 1990 would lag those invested over the whole period by about 10%. Those missing the five best days would trail by over 35%. Miss the best 10 days, and your gains over the period are more than cut in half. In other words, the data shows that out of the market's biggest spasms come the market's best opportunities. And that getting emotional around these big spasms can leave your portfolio trailing woefully behind your goals. Professional investors, of course, have an explanatory element to their job. Every downdraft results in clients losing money, and when clients lose money, many would like an explanation. Talking through the bad results realized, however, must not distract from seizing on the opportunities created. In hindsight, every market dip in the last 20 years looks eminently buyable. At the time, few of them seemed to offer strong reasons for jumping back into the market. These conditions are a call to action for professionals and a call to inaction for everyone else." MY COMMENT YES.......there is really nothing ever new when it comes to investing....it is all about PROBABILITY.
A green open today....with the markets stuck in the same old, same old, news and short term environment. Lots of big FEAR-MONGERING about recession today in all the content. My opinion......very slight odds of a recession. Out there in the real world.....I dont hear any concern at all......or....see any change in consumer behavior. A nasty little correction......but.....still a tempest in a tea-pot. NONE of the recent fundamental data (earnings) or economic data releases by the government show any real issues. At least NOWHERE near what we are seeing shouted every day at investors.....who for the most part.....are just siting and doing nothing. Another day of IGNORING it all......for me. I refuse to get all caught up in the DRAMA.
EVERY one of my stocks is green.....30 minutes in. BUT....no doubt....this reflects lots of buy orders at the open as real investors buy the great bargains that are available right now. Once we get past the open....market control will pass to the TRADERS. So we will have to wait to see how we actually turn out in the markets today.
At the moment my "HARD ASSETS"......gold, silver, art, sculpture, and other "things".....are keeping my net worth stable. Stocks are in correction and at the same time in my hard assets I am seeing record values and prices. Real property....here in my area is STILL a sellers market but slow....about 45 days on market to sell. Prices dont seem to be going up much but they are definately not dropping. In my little neighborhood of about 85 homes.....3 have sold over the past 6 months. There are currently two for sale at $2MILLION and $1.3MILLION. My "feel" for real property......here locally.....there is a lot of pent up pressure and when it breaks lose prices are going to take a big jump up. In spite of the stock market correction.....by my calculation yesterday my NET WORTH is about the same.
Of course.....not much is being said about earnings so far......but....they seem to be coming in stronger than expected. I am seeing lots of good earnings beats just about every day. For example: Solid Fundamentals Boosted Dutch Bros. (BROS) in Q1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solid-fundamentals-boosted-dutch-bros-115318213.html 3M Beats Earnings Estimates and Quantifies Tariff Headwind https://www.barrons.com/articles/3m-earnings-stock-price-815d806b We will have a much better view of how they are doing when many of the BIG CAP TECH companies report this week and next.
AND....I am NOT seeing a lot of fear in the guidance that is being put out there in the business world. Chevron sees no signs that U.S. is close to a recession, CEO says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/chevron-sees-no-signs-that-us-is-close-to-a-recession-ceo-says.html
In a surprise to no one with a clue. I believe the most stable currency right now is 2nm wafer starts. That is neither a joke nor hyperbole. I understand I sound like a mental patient but I stand by this. I would rather have $100B of TSMC contracted 2nm wafer starts than $100B of any currency.
Today I was wandering where euro-usd value will go. First time I visited USA, just NY and Newark mainly, I found life cost quite acessible. By then, in 2007, we were jumping out subprime crisis, Obama first "consulate". I really loved it. I bought a lot of american stuff at afordable prices, spent an amazing week there, despite the December cold. I think €/USD was around 1.40. Lets see what upcoming months will bring us.
I had a total GREEN day today with my nine stocks. I ended up dead flat with the SP500 today..........no difference at all. A good day. LETS BUILD FROM HERE.
HERE are the TSLA earnings....although I do not own the stock. Tesla reports 20% drop in auto revenue as first-quarter results miss Wall Street estimates https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/tesla-tsla-earnings-report-q1-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Tesla missed on the top and bottom lines in its first-quarter earnings report. Automotive revenue plunged 20% from a year earlier. The stock, down 41% so far this year, was little changed in extended trading. Tesla reported a miss on the top and bottom lines in its first-quarter earnings report on Tuesday as automotive revenue plunged 20% from a year earlier. Here are the key numbers compared with LSEG expectations. Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 39 cents estimated Revenue: $19.34 billion vs. $21.11 billion estimated Total revenue slid 9% from $21.3 billion a year earlier. Automotive revenue dropped 20% to $14 billion from $17.4 billion in the same period last year. Tesla said one reason for the decline was the need to update lines at its four vehicle factories to start making a refreshed version of its popular Model Y SUV. The company also pointed to lower average selling prices and sales incentives as a drag on revenue and profit. Net income plummeted 71% to $409 million, or 12 cents a share, from $1.39 billion or 41 cents a year ago. It’s been a brutal start to the year for Tesla, with CEO Elon Musk spending much of his time in President Donald Trump’s White House, overseeing an effort to dramatically downsize the federal government. The president’s sweeping tariffs plan has led to concerns that costs will increase for parts and materials crucial for electric vehicle production, including manufacturing equipment,automotive glass, printed circuit boards and battery cells. Tesla shares are down 41% so far in 2025, and suffered their worst quarterly drop since 2022 in the period that ended in March. The stock was little changed in extended trading on Tuesday. In its shareholder deck, Tesla cautioned investors that “uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers.” The company said this “dynamic,” and “changing political sentiment” could have a meaningful near-term impact on demand for its products. Tesla has faced widespread protests in the U.S. and Europe, where Musk has actively supported Germany’s far-right AfD party. Earlier this month, the company reported a 13% decline in deliveries to 336,681. Tesla blamed the lower deliveries, in part, on the need to suspend production temporarily at its factories while it upgraded lines to start manufacturing a refreshed version of its popular Model Y electric SUVs. Tesla has been struggling to keep pace with lower-cost competitors in China, and is a laggard in the robotaxi market, which is currently dominated in the U.S. by Alphabet’s Waymo. Tesla has promised to launch its first driverless ride-hailing offering in Austin, Texas, in June. The company reassured investors on Tuesday that it remains on track for a “pilot launch” in Austin by June, and to begin building its humanoid robots on a pilot production line in Fremont, California, this year." MY COMMENT Probably about what was expected. I dont think we will see much of a hit to the stock as a result. At least they were still profitable.
Like every new day lately tomorrow is TOTALLY.....opaque. BUT....here is what we did today over the course of an irrelevant single day. Dow jumps 1,000 points Tuesday to snap four-day string of losses: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
TSLA earnings above were not great for sure. They have taken a beating lately. As we have seen other companies fall into politics, it just is not worth the headache. However, shareholders have some hope due to him mentioning winding down his role in government significantly over the next month or so. That probably will carry more weight with them than the earnings at this point.
Oh and by the way WXYZ…..leveraged ETF’s?? I seen that little post. My minds image of you is shattered. I shall pray to the market Gods that you peacefully find your way back….to reasonable and rationale
Imagine the job the Tesla board has to do. Elon Musk *is* Tesla. He is the oxygen Tesla breathes. When he does something really, really, insanely stupid, they have to take the beating. I doubt they will even say anything to him but they must surely be desperately hoping he would STFU. lol!
Oh no…not you too TB16. We are losing it here people. You shall be sentenced to writing “I am a long term investor” one hundred times on the chalkboard in front of the rest of us.
At least I will not be "TRADING" those 2x leveraged ETF products. I will simply put that "crazy money" into them and let it ride for the long term. Of course....there is nothing saying that my case will settle while these big discounts are still in place. As far as I know the company responsible for the food product has refused to settle a single case. So in the end....I will make a final decision on that money when it happens. it could be tomorrow or it could be two years from now. AND.....I am DEFINITELY NOT encouraging anyone else to use these leveraged ETF products......they have EXTREME RISK due to the leveraged nature of the product. I would NEVER buy such a product except in this very specific case of........"found mad money"....when it happens.
AND.....TOMORROW....I will likely be missing all day. Wednesday as usual lately is.....studio day. I will be leaving early tomorrow about 8:45AM and will likely not get back till about 5:00PM. If the futures hold it looks like a good day ahead. ALL the news items seem to be lining up nicely....TSLA up by over $12 after hours on this story: Tesla CEO Musk says time he spends on DOGE will drop ‘significantly’ next month https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/tes...-doge-will-drop-significantly-next-month.html and the general market futures are up on this story: Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Fed Chair Powell https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/trump-says-he-has-no-intention-of-firing-fed-chair-powell.html HOLD DOWN THE FORT TOMORROW.
