It is now April 21.....and the pain continues. BUT.....I see that so far the market bottom was on April 8....at least for the SP500. On that day it hit 4982. As of today we are at 5158. So....lets see if the markets can hold that bottom. Baby steps.
DUH.........the obvious......but never a bad thing to repeat. Stock market volatility offers 2 important lessons for investors: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ns-for-investors-morning-brief-100046588.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US stock market can't find steady footing. On Monday, stocks took another drubbing as the S&P 500 fell 2.4%. On the one hand, a sharp reversal from the historic one-day jump we saw in the index just two weeks ago. On the other hand, a state of affairs that is completely consistent with stock market history. "The biggest down days tend to be followed by the biggest up days and this pattern once again is playing out," Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, wrote in a note earlier this month. Lerner looked at historically notable two-day slides in the market — 1987, a series of days in 2008, March 2020, April 3-4 — and found that each was followed by two-day bounces in excess of 9%. The 9.5% rally seen in the S&P 500 on April 9 fits the bill. And should the US economy tip into recession, the one- and two-year returns from the market's bottom tend to be memorable, with the S&P 500 averaging 40% and 54% over those periods, respectively. The S&P 500 averages an annual gain closer to 10%. Noting that volatility spikes come in clusters has become de rigueur in discussing the stock market. And this new axiom also offers two distinct lessons for two different classes of investor. For savers using the stock market's long and growing history of usually going up over time, this volatility is the price of admission for realizing those gains. A high-yield savings account, for instance, might offer someone 4% or so on their cash. The S&P 500 has offered investors closer to 10% a year the last 70 years. One return is, literally, money in the bank. The other is how you grow $10,000 into a million dollars in under 50 years. For professional investors, these volatility clusters are reminders that the market falling off a cliff in a few short days is the time to lock in. As Lerner highlighted in the same investor note, portfolios that miss the S&P 500's best day since 1990 would lag those invested over the whole period by about 10%. Those missing the five best days would trail by over 35%. Miss the best 10 days, and your gains over the period are more than cut in half. In other words, the data shows that out of the market's biggest spasms come the market's best opportunities. And that getting emotional around these big spasms can leave your portfolio trailing woefully behind your goals. Professional investors, of course, have an explanatory element to their job. Every downdraft results in clients losing money, and when clients lose money, many would like an explanation. Talking through the bad results realized, however, must not distract from seizing on the opportunities created. In hindsight, every market dip in the last 20 years looks eminently buyable. At the time, few of them seemed to offer strong reasons for jumping back into the market. These conditions are a call to action for professionals and a call to inaction for everyone else." MY COMMENT YES.......there is really nothing ever new when it comes to investing....it is all about PROBABILITY.
A green open today....with the markets stuck in the same old, same old, news and short term environment. Lots of big FEAR-MONGERING about recession today in all the content. My opinion......very slight odds of a recession. Out there in the real world.....I dont hear any concern at all......or....see any change in consumer behavior. A nasty little correction......but.....still a tempest in a tea-pot. NONE of the recent fundamental data (earnings) or economic data releases by the government show any real issues. At least NOWHERE near what we are seeing shouted every day at investors.....who for the most part.....are just siting and doing nothing. Another day of IGNORING it all......for me. I refuse to get all caught up in the DRAMA.
EVERY one of my stocks is green.....30 minutes in. BUT....no doubt....this reflects lots of buy orders at the open as real investors buy the great bargains that are available right now. Once we get past the open....market control will pass to the TRADERS. So we will have to wait to see how we actually turn out in the markets today.
At the moment my "HARD ASSETS"......gold, silver, art, sculpture, and other "things".....are keeping my net worth stable. Stocks are in correction and at the same time in my hard assets I am seeing record values and prices. Real property....here in my area is STILL a sellers market but slow....about 45 days on market to sell. Prices dont seem to be going up much but they are definately not dropping. In my little neighborhood of about 85 homes.....3 have sold over the past 6 months. There are currently two for sale at $2MILLION and $1.3MILLION. My "feel" for real property......here locally.....there is a lot of pent up pressure and when it breaks lose prices are going to take a big jump up. In spite of the stock market correction.....by my calculation yesterday my NET WORTH is about the same.
Of course.....not much is being said about earnings so far......but....they seem to be coming in stronger than expected. I am seeing lots of good earnings beats just about every day. For example: Solid Fundamentals Boosted Dutch Bros. (BROS) in Q1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solid-fundamentals-boosted-dutch-bros-115318213.html 3M Beats Earnings Estimates and Quantifies Tariff Headwind https://www.barrons.com/articles/3m-earnings-stock-price-815d806b We will have a much better view of how they are doing when many of the BIG CAP TECH companies report this week and next.
AND....I am NOT seeing a lot of fear in the guidance that is being put out there in the business world. Chevron sees no signs that U.S. is close to a recession, CEO says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/chevron-sees-no-signs-that-us-is-close-to-a-recession-ceo-says.html
