Oh.....right.....there is actually a market happening today. Tech rally resumes as Nasdaq, S&P 500 lead gains https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...es-as-nasdaq-sp-500-lead-gains-133035059.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks gained on Thursday, with Big Tech leading the way as investors digested mixed signals from President Trump and his top advisers on tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose above the flat line. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.4%. The "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks all gained. The S&P 500 has rallied over 4% in the last two days, boosted in large part by tariff-talk optimism. On Wednesday, stocks rallied as the US floated slashing China tariffs, though the stock surge eased when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there has been "no unilateral offer from the president to deescalate" the trade war with China. Meanwhile on Thursday, China stood defiant as the US eased its rhetoric, demanding the US eliminate all tariffs and denying that any talks have taken place between the nations. While Trump's apparent eagerness to negotiate takes the spotlight, his approach to other key tariffs grew more muddled. The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration is considering exempting automakers from the most punishing auto tariffs, yet Trump said from the Oval Office that a 25% tariff on cars imported from Canada could increase. The White House also ordered a probe into truck imports, paving the way for tariffs on the sector. In corporates, IBM (IBM) shares dropped 5% on Thursday after the company revealed 15 government contracts were impacted by cost cuts from the Trump administration. Chipotle (CMG) shares rose slightly after its first quarter earnings missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast. On Thursday, Wall Street's attention will shift to Alphabet earnings. While investors don't expect the company's results to be impacted by Trump's trade war yet, they'll be watching for any warning signs of how tariffs could hit the business in the near future. Intel is also reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday. The results will be the company's first under the leadership of its new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan. Nvidia leads Big Tech higher as 'Magnificent 7' stocks extend gains Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2% Thursday morning, leading the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks higher as the group climbed for a third day. Other Big Tech names climbed as well. Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG) trailed closely behind Nvidia, rising nearly 2%. Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) rose more than 1%, while Apple (AAPL) climbed less than 1%. The group extended its rally that began Tuesday as the Trump administration hinted at a potential deescalation of the US-China trade war. China has denied that it's made any progress in trade talks with the US since being slapped with 145% "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump. The Magnificent Seven stock gains added more than $840 billion to their cumulative market capitalizations between Monday's close and the end of Wednesday's trading session. The rally comes amid a volatile year as Trump's ever-changing trade policies rock the stock market, with tech stocks feeling the brunt of the impact. The Magnificent Seven stocks are all down year to date. Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings season is underway. Google parent Alphabet is set to report earnings after the bell Thursday. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings are next week" MY COMMENT Starting out as a nice day. Time....will tell if this good start is a continuation of the recent few day RALLY in the markets. At least we have now substantially moved above the low in the SP500 that we hit on April 8, 2025. That is what I am looking for short term.......movement in the markets AWAY from the prior broad Index low.
I am starting out today the same way I ended yesterday. EIGHT of my nine stocks are GREEN right now. The lone red stock....COST.....which is just contradictory and SILLY if you consider all the DIRE and DOOM&GLOOM content lately. Number one....their ever loyal shoppers are not going to stop shopping there. Number two....if the doom and gloom is right......people will FLOCK to COSTCO for their bargain prices compared to other retail sources. I STILL consider the stock a BARGAIN.....but....not as great as it was a few weeks ago trading close to $900. There continues to be a HUGE pent up gain siting in that stock waiting for a SPLIT.
I just looked at my actual account. Right now I am TEETERING on the edge of correction territory with a total account loss at (-10.8%). A SIGNIFICANT improvement from the recent low. A total disconnect from the tone of the media content that I continue to see.....which is overwhelmed by negativity. I dont consider my level of current loss as significant.....or....concerning.
Interestingly enough, there were a few stories I read a while back regarding Costco and some of the tariffs. With Costco having 7 stores operating in China they began using that influence to try and get their suppliers to absorb some of the cost associated with imports. Of course Walmart and Target have discussed the same and had meetings over there to try and mitigate some of the price increases to consumers. Of the three retailers, Costco and Walmart are the only two that have physical stores in China. That may give them some pressure to apply with regard to costs. I think it is interesting how a number of companies are negotiating themselves and trying to work in the background from all the other noise. Some info on Costco... Main partners The top trade partners of Costco Wholesale in January 2025 were China (1,485 shipments), Norway (185 shipments), and Vietnam (116 shipments), while the main import origins were Washington (1,349 shipments),California (321 shipments),New Jersey (117 shipments). Physical Trade In 2025, the main physical products imported by Costco Wholesale in January were Non-Iron and Steel Slag, Ash and Residues with 446 shipments (23.6% of the total), Other Furniture with 242 shipments (12.8% of the total), and Seats with 117 shipments (6.2% of the total).
Maybe India and Boeing are looking to make a deal on some of those "return to sender" planes. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/air-india-talks-boeing-10-173410142.html
Looks like we might actually power into the close today.....but....45 minutes in today's market is an eternity.
Looks good to me and in line with what I would expect....once you ditch all the fear-mongering BS. Amazon and Nvidia say AI data center demand is not slowing down https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/ama...-data-center-demand-is-not-slowing-down-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Amazon and Nvidia executives said they only see power demand rising due to artificial intelligence. Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, said the tech company’s data center plans have not changed significantly. “We haven’t seen a pullback,” said Josh Parker, Nvidia’s senior director of corporate sustainability. OKLAHOMA CITY — Amazon and Nvidia executives said Thursday that the construction of artificial intelligence data centers is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some of their plans. “There’s been really no significant change,” Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, said at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. “We continue to see very strong demand, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up.” The comments run contrary to worrying buzz building on Wall Street about tech companies changing data center buildout plans. Wells Fargo analysts said Monday that Amazon Web Services is pausing some leases on data center commitments, citing industry sources. The magnitude of the pause was unclear, the analysts said, but the comments raised fears that Amazon was doing something similar to Microsoft’s recent move to pull back on some early stage projects. Miller said “there’s been little tea leaf reading and extrapolating to strange results” about Amazon’s plans. Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker’s senior director of corporate sustainability. “We haven’t seen a pullback,” Parker said. China’s artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek sparked a sell-off in power stocks earlier this year as investors worried that its artificial intelligence model is more efficient and data centers might need as much energy as originally anticipated. But Parker said Nvidia sees compute and energy demand only rising due to AI, describing the reaction to DeepSeek as “kneejerk.” Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said 50 gigawatts of new power capacity will be needed by 2027 to support AI. That is the equivalent of about 50 new nuclear plants. “Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we’re seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We’re seeing unprecedented growth,” Clark said. The executives were speaking at a gathering of tech and energy companies at a conference in Oklahoma City organized by the Hamm Institute to discuss how the U.S. can address the growing energy needs for AI. There is a growing consensus in both industries that natural gas will be needed to meet the power needs. MY COMMENT Very strange.....you mean to tell me that what I see in the day to day opinion media is possibly NOT true? Who would have ever imagined....after all they are......JOURNALISTS......with journalistic ethics.
Looks like I am performing about like the SP500 in terms of the market bottom. I just looked at my account performance for 2025. My low of the year was on April 7, 2025. The low of the year for the SP500 was one day later. Ok time to make another call......I am calling April 7/8....as the market bottom. It would take a loss of about 9%....to take out that low. On a common sense basis....I do not see that happening at this point in the correction. Although.......April 21 was a pretty nasty five day low in the SP500 and for my account.
OK.....GOOGL. Alphabet shares rise on strong revenue growth https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/alphabet-googl-q1-earnings-report-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Alphabet reported revenue of $90.23 billion and earnings per share of $2.81. The company’s shares rose as much as 4% on stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Alphabet’s search and advertising units are still showing strong growth despite AI competition heating up, according to its first-quarter earnings report. Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, reported first-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell. Shares rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading. Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG: Revenue: $90.23 billion vs. $89.12 billion, estimated Earnings per share: $2.81 vs. $2.01, estimated Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report: YouTube advertising revenue: $8.93 billion versus $8.97 billion, according to StreetAccount Google Cloud revenue: $12.26 billion $12.27 billion, according to StreetAccount Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $13.75 billion versus $13.66 billion, according to StreetAccount Alphabet’s search and advertising units are still showing strong growth despite AI competition heating up, according to its first-quarter earnings report. Alphabet’s overall revenue grew 12% year-over-year, higher than the 10% Wall Street expected. Google’s YouTube advertising revenue came in just short of analyst expectations at $8.93 billion. Overall advertising brought in $66.89 billion, up 8.5% from the year prior. Google reported revenue of $12.26 billion for its cloud computing business, which was slightly below analysts’ expectations of $12.27 billion, according to StreetAccount. But the cloud unit saw its revenue increase 28% year-over-year, and its margins came in at 17.8%, compared to 9.4% a year ago. Google’s “Search and other” segment reported $50.7 billion — up 9.8% from $46.16 billion a year prior. Alphabet said AI Overviews, its AI tool placed at the top of Google’s search results page, now has 1.5 billion users per month, up from 1 billion in October. Alphabet’s net income increased 46% to $34.54 billion, or $2.81 a share, from $23.66 billion, or $1.89 a share, a year earlier. The company said that included $8 billion in unrealized gains on its non-marketable equity securities related to Alphabet’s investment in a private company. Alphabet said its “Other Bets” segment, which includes its self-driving car unit Waymo and life sciences unit Verily, brought in $450 million, down from $495 million a year earlier. The unit lost $1.23 billion — up from $1.02 billion the year prior." MY COMMENT A MASSIVE BEAT.......especially Net Income up by 46%.....Search up by nearly 10%....cloud unit revenue up by 28%.....and margins blowing up to 17.8%. Really big numbers in spite of a few items being just at or below expectations. So much for all the negative BS in the media lately.
Google's parent begins year with robust growth despite legal, competitive and economic threats. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googles-parent-begins-robust-growth-203934113.html "Google's profits soared 28% in this year's opening quarter, overcoming the competitive and legal threats that its internet empire is facing amid an economy roiled by a global trade war." MY COMMENT REALLY? The economy has been "ROILED" by a global trade war? NO...not really. ALL....the economic data I have seen lately has been outstanding....there is ZERO recession in sight.....stocks are moving further from the April 7/8 bottom.....and the markets are just entering PEAK EARNINGS with a good indication for earnings in this GOOGL release. Even the inflation data released recently has shown meaningful drops in inflation compared to expectations. The quote above should say.......The economy has "SUPPOSEDLY" been roiled by a global trade war...."according to the media"....."with little actual evidence to back up this characterization"......other than...... "political wishful thinking, politics driven attacks, and party PR releases..... combined with obsessive media click-baiting".
Another GREAT day for my stocks. Eight of nine in the GREEN......and....the only one in the red COSt is by only 36cents. PLTR is on fire recently and all the big cap tech companies are really doing well. We should have a very significant probability for another GREEN day tomorrow. We could use a nice GREEN week.....and....we DESERVE it.
AND....as of the close today my entire account is NO LONGER in a correction. I am now out of correction by the skin of my teeth at.....(-9.88%). BUT.....beware..... I am NOT saying the correction is over. It might be....but it is too early to know or say. Only time.....and hindsight.... will show us when it actually ended. GREAT EARNINGS next week will be a big help to move the markets forward since we will see reports from AMZN....MSFT....and ....AAPL. One thing I am positive of when the correction is over.....in hindsight...it will have been the Professionals and the Hedge Funds that were the ones running around in PANIC.
Oh yes.....add META to the big cap tech companies that will report next week. Although I do not own it.
To echo what Smokie said, this thread is a pretty dang good example of how, in the course of analyzing the market and economy, one can reference lighting rod issues and not devolve into partisan drivel, especially in today's politically tribalistic climate. I am sure that many of us here have very different political views depending on the topic, but the tie that binds is investing, and it is great to see that the focus remains very much on that.
I have been pleased there has been some discussion about the current events, tariffs included. It's a pretty important issue within the economy and not quite to the degree we have seen in a long time. At least in such a widespread fashion including this many countries. The event effects the very companies many of us invest in. To what degree longer term is unknown. It is possible that all of this will settle down, get worked out, turn out worse than expected, or somewhere in between. Maybe it will benefit them and maybe it won't. We don't know yet. It's a worthwhile discussion in my opinion. As I posted earlier, this thread has discussed a litany of economic events throughout its history. Who can forget the FED and interest rate discussion, the government stimulus check incentives, the Covid discussion, a couple of elections, and yes.....there was even a tariff discussion back then. Nobody here, at least that I can tell, has fallen off the wagon of long term investing or is stoking up fear and despair, or even being the least bit disrespectful. That is a good thing for all of us and this forum. The old saying the "stock market is not the economy" is a popular saying and has been around forever. I'm not disagreeing with that either, but as investors....the economy and associated things with it are a "part" of our investor lives all throughout that journey. On the subject of different opinions about anything. I believe that is why things have become so divided over the last several years. As a society, we don't want to listen to anything different from our own biases. It's no wonder people don't know how to communicate or get a long at times. Ok....this is turning into a sermon again. Anyways....good talk RTN and everybody.
AS USUAL: SO....here is my current portfolio of....NINE....stocks. The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir WMT (junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
@WXYZ just noted you had cut Chipotle! I like their business even the (market) results were not the ones I was expecting for.