OK.....I lied....one last post....again. Palantir: Incredible Q1 Earnings And Increased Guidance Aren't Enough https://seekingalpha.com/article/47...-earnings-and-increased-guidance-arent-enough (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Summary Palantir delivered an exceptional Q1, showcasing significant growth in customer base and revenue, but its current valuation seems detached from fundamentals. Despite impressive metrics, including 39% YoY revenue growth and high-margin operations, PLTR's valuation at over 500 times net income is concerning. Risks include potential declines in interest income due to Fed rate cuts and intense competition from giants like Microsoft. While long-term prospects remain strong, the stock may trade sideways as it grows into its valuation, with a target range of $70-$100. Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) just released its Q1 2025 earnings, and they crushed it. PLTR has gone from very few investors understanding the business model and being called a black box by many analysts to the software darling of the A.I. revolution. I have been an investor since the direct public offering, and I have been a long-term bull who still believes that PLTR will become the 2nd most important software company in the world behind Microsoft (MSFT). What I am unwilling to do is remain bullish and add to my position when the valuation doesn't make sense. PLTR delivered an incredible quarter as it showcased large growth rates across the board, which allowed it to increase guidance. PLTR now believes that it is on pace to produce between $3.89 billion and $3.902 billion in revenue and adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion. I haven't sold a single share, and while I still see long-term value down the road, I have a few problems with the current valuation and how PLTR reports its numbers. I think it sends the wrong message for a company with a $300 billion market cap to report adjusted EBITDA and AFCF numbers rather than straight EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF). It makes it look like PLTR is trying to juice the metrics. The people who were bearish on PLTR's relevancy have been proven wrong, but the elephant in the room is the valuation, and I think the market cap has found a top for quite some time. At some point, fundamentals matter, and I think it's going to take a long time for shares of PLTR to make new highs again. Seeking Alpha Following up on my last article about Palantir Shares of PLTR have exceeded expectations for many investors, including myself, as its shares have generated close to a 400% return over the past year. My cost basis is in the mid-teens, and I haven't sold a single share, but as an objective shareholder, I changed my investment thesis when shares of PLTR broke away from what I considered a reasonable premium. In my previous article (can be read here) I discussed how PLTR's latest AIP Con solidified its future, but I felt the premium shares PLTR was receiving weren't justified. PLTR had shown impressive growth, closing 660 deals worth at least $1 million in the 2024 fiscal year and proved the bears wrong, who felt it was an A.I. imposter. If it wasn't for the fact that I didn't sell my shares, I would have turned bearish on PLTR, but from a long-term perspective, I do agree with Dan Ives that PLTR will become a $1 trillion company. The difference is our time-frames. I think that PLTR may become a $1 trillion company in a decade or so, while Mr. Ives thinks it can happen in the next 2–3 years. I am following up with a new article to discuss PLTR's Q1 earnings and outline why I don't believe new highs will be reached for a long time. Seeking Alpha Risks to investing in Palantir I am not bullish on PLTR at the current valuation, but if shares fell to a more reasonable level, I would start adding to my position again because I think that there is still a long-term opportunity in PLTR shares. Investors should do their own due diligence because PLTR has several risk factors that should be considered. In Q1, PLTR generated $176.05 million in income from operations and $50.44 million from interest income. PLTR generated 23.17% of its net income from the interest it created from its pile of cash on the balance sheet. As the Fed pivots and starts to cut rates, the amount of interest income PLTR generates will start to decline, and this could put pressure on their future EPS. PLTR also has many competitive risks as the largest companies in the world, such as MSFT, are deploying products such as Fabric to compete with PLTR. If competitors develop better software, it could hurt PLTR's margins and top-line revenue. There is also valuation risk as PLTR is trading at more than 200 times 2025 earnings. Investors should consider what they are getting for their capital at these levels and do their own research because the top may be in for a long while. Palantir delivered an incredible quarter, and the business metrics are not a reason to be bearish Just because I don't agree with the valuation doesn't mean I won't acknowledge how strong Q1 was. PLTR grew its commercial customer count by 45.67% YoY as it added 195 commercial customers from Q1 2024 and 51 commercial customers in Q1 2025 alone. In the past year, PLTR's total customer base increased by 38.81% (215 customers) to 769 total customers, with 58 coming in Q1 2025. The customer growth has allowed PLTR to ink 468 deals worth at least $1 million over the past year, while 178 of them exceeded a value of $5 million, and 106 exceeded a value of $10 million. Just in Q1 2025, PLTR added 139 deals, of which $51 were for at least $5 million and 31 were at least $10 million. The growth in customer and deal numbers has allowed PLTR's revenue to explode. PLTR's revenue grew 39% YoY and 7% QoQ to $884 million in Q1. The big question for a long time was whether or not PLTR could scale its commercial business or would it rely on the government sector to produce the lion's share of its revenue. PLTR's commercial revenue grew 33% YoY to $397 million, and its U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% YoY to $255 million, and it also gained 19% QoQ. While PLTR was busy adding commercial clients to diversify its revenue mix, it also continued to grow the government business by 45% YoY to $487 million, with U.S. government revenue growing by 45% to $373 million YoY in Q1. One of the most important metrics when it comes to PLTR's business is their net dollar retention, which hasn't been discussed enough. PLTR ended Q1 with a net dollar retention of 124%, which means they are upselling their customers by 24% on average, based on their initial contract base. As PLTR adds more clients, this will be a critical success factor for its long-term revenue growth. Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha PLTR's S-curve is starting to form on its quarterly revenue as its revenue grew by 39.34% YoY to $883.86 million in Q1, which was also an 8.88% QoQ increase. The metrics in Q1 were very bullish for the future as PLTR generated $304.08 million in FCF, which was a margin of 34.4%, and $214 million in net income at a 24.22% margin. More than 1/3rd of every dollar generated showed up in the financials as FCF, and almost 1/4th of each dollar was net income. PLTR is operating a high-margin business, and as their net dollar retention grows and more deals are signed, I believe the S-curve will get steeper as time progresses. It's hard to be bearish on a company that is delivering these types of growth metrics, and PLTR is positioned for the future as it continues to add large commercial clients and expand its footprint in the government sector. Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha Palantir's valuation has gotten ahead of itself, and they may have a problem if the Fed gets aggressive in cutting interest rates The May FOMC meeting is on Wednesday and CME Group is projecting that the chances of a rate cut are 2.7%. While the chances are low, CME Group expects that the Fed will cut at least 3 times in 2025 with more than a 35% chance we get more than 100 bps of reductions. I think the Fed is backed into a corner, considering that unemployment is climbing while CPI is approaching its neutral rate. Many companies took out debt during the pandemic when rates were low, and if they are forced to refinance at these levels, margins will compress and potentially cause additional unemployment. I think the Fed will start to cut in June as oil is now under $60 per barrel, and inflation is near its neutral rate. If this occurs, PLTR's cash pile won't generate as much interest income, which is bad for its EPS. Over the past year, PLTR has generated $574.32 million in net income, of which 35.49% came from the $203.84 million produced by the interest on its cash. Depending on how quickly the Fed cuts, PLTR may not be in a position to offset the income lost from declining interest rates from newly contracted revenue, or it may not be able to grow revenue enough to satisfy the street's growth metrics on EPS. PLTR's cash pile has allowed them to juice their EPS, considering it accounted for 69.24% of Q4's net income, but as the Fed cuts rates, it will be harder to do. CME Group PLTR is a victim of its own success as the valuation has gotten ahead of itself, and its Q1 2025 report wasn't enough to keep the momentum going. Shares of PLTR are down -9.25% (-$11.45) in after-hours trading after reporting a revenue beat of $21.72 million, in-line EPS with consensus estimates, and increased guidance on revenue and AFCF. Normally, the street loves quarters like this, and PLTR's quarter was outstanding from a business perspective, but when the valuation is this far detached from the fundamentals, the only way shares could remain where they were or go higher is with a blowout on all metrics. After updating PLTR's metrics, they are trading at 508.53 times their net income and 221.53 times FCF. PLTR may be an exciting stock, but at the end of the day, it's a SaaS company getting a hefty premium because its software is focused on A.I. Adobe (ADBE) trades at a $162.41 billion market cap and generates 607.46% more revenue ($18.92 billion), 597.22% FCF ($7.87 billion), and 1,075.48% more net income ($6.18 billion) than PLTR does. It's hard to make the case for PLTR when it's trading at a market cap that is $129.65 billion more than ADBE, yet it's generating a fraction of the revenue and profitability. Look at CSCO, compared to PLTR. CSCO was the stock market darling as it was the backbone of the internet, and despite growing its revenue and net income by a staggering amount over the past 2 ½ decades, it has still never gotten back to its dot com levels. CSCO is currently generating $54.18 billion in revenue, which is 1,639.22% ($51.06 billion) more than PLTR, $12.81 billion in FCF, which is 871.65% ($11.49 billion) more than PLTR, and $9.19 billion in net income which is 1,499.63% ($8.61 billion) more than PLTR. It's hard to say that PLTR is trading anywhere near fair value or a reasonable premium when it's trading at 508.53 times net income and 221.53 times FCF when ADBE and CSCO are trading at less than 26 times net income and 19 times FCF. Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha Conclusion I think that PLTR's price action is going to be interesting on Tuesday, 5/6 because it's already down -9.25% in after-hours trading, and this could cause a bunch of stop losses to be triggered when the market opens. I think it's difficult to get excited about PLTR at this valuation because there is so much growth priced in. This was an incredible quarter, and PLTR continues to grow its customer base and sign many new large-scale deals, but it's been priced for exponential growth, and that's not what is being delivered. I think a big problem was that they didn't hit the 40% YoY growth metric, and their EPS didn't beat expectations. I think it's going to be a difficult year for comps as the Fed cuts rates, and we may not get exciting EPS growth from PLTR, which could impact its valuation in the future. The after-hours price action indicates that the strong quarter PLTR delivered wasn't enough, and I am expecting a modest sell-off for shares of PLTR to trade in a range of $70-$100 for a while. I do believe that PLTR will be a much bigger company in the future, but too much of that growth is already priced in, and we could see PLTR trade sideways and grow into a new valuation as Q1 earnings weren't enough to take shares higher." MY COMMENT I have ZERO plans to sell any of my PLTR shares any time soon. BUT....for anyone just considering buying the stock for the first time right now....you might want to consider the opinion above. I am also interested to see the open and how the stock does today and this week. It is very much a DARLING of the little retail investors. We will see if their collective knowledge and instincts are more ACCURATE than all the big whiners and bully's on Wall Street. I am inclined to never bet against the collective...."little people". BUT....as I said....anyone that is thinking about buying....consider the above and do a little research and thinking. Most important will be the length of time that you are willing to hold the stock as a long term growth vehicle to allow them to continue to grow into the numbers. I am content to be patient a long time with the numbers that this company is doing and more importantly their management and the AI revolution. Of course....I have HUGE gains in my position so far that make it easy to sit and be patient......even if we see somewhat of a pull back in the stock.
A RED day for me with EVERY stock in the red today. I also got beat by the SP500 today by....0.56%. You have got to love FED week and how the media is speculating like crazy and making a big deal of it when it is totally obvious that they are going to do nothing....and.....have nothing they can or will say of any substance since they know nothing more than anyone else.
I will once again miss the morning tomorrow as we finish up with the cataract...."stuff". I will also miss a good portion of the day on Thursday since I will be in the studio. I will be done with the "stuff" that is messing with my schedule next Tuesday. I will miss most of that day since I have to go to San Antonio for an "event" that will take up most of the day.
Today is FED day....poor W is going to miss all of the fanfare associated with it . I don't think anybody expects much substantive moves at this point. Well, there is one person likely, but that is a given during the little FED vs administration argument. The media will of course be all over it as usual.
I am just in tome for the FED......how special. Fed holds rates steady as it notes rising uncertainty and stagflation risk https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/fed-rate-decision-may-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate unchanged as it awaits fluctuations in trade policy and the direction of a sputtering economy. In a move that carried little suspense given the wave of uncertainty sweeping the political and economic landscape, the Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. The post-meeting statement noted the volatility and how that is factoring into policy decisions. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the statement said. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.“ However, the statement did not specifically address the tariffs, though Chair Jerome Powell is sure to be asked about them in his post-meeting news conference. Finding the balance between the two elements of the Fed’s so-called dual mandate of full employment and stable prices has been made more difficult lately amid President Donald Trump’s tariff push. In noting that tariffs both threaten to aggravate inflation as well as slow economic growth, the statement raises the possibility of a stagflationary scenario largely absent from the U.S. since the early 1980s. Policymakers have largely been in agreement that the central bank is in a good position, with the economy generally holding up for now, to be patient as it calibrates monetary policy. The Fed’s deliberations come as the White House is locked on negotiations with top U.S. trading partners during a 90-day negotiating period that began in early April. President Donald Trump slapped 10% across-the-board tariffs on U.S. imports and threatened other individual “reciprocal” duties pending ongoing talks. As near-daily headline changes gauge the trade war, the economy has been flashing conflicting signals on growth, inflation and consumer and business sentiment. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic performance, fell 0.3% in the first quarter, the product of slower consumer and government spending and a surge in imports ahead of the tariffs. Most Wall Street economists expect the economy will return to positive growth in the second quarter. The FOMC statement noted that “swings in net exports have affected the data,” and held to its recent characterization that the economy “has continued to expand at a solid pace.” Indeed, job growth has held up despite Trump’s efforts to pare down the federal work force. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, giving the Fed room to breathe if it expects a further economic slowdown. Inflation has been ticking lower and approaching the Fed’s 2% target, but tariffs are expected to result in at least a one-time rise in prices. Trump has pushed the Fed to cut rates as inflation has eased. The central bank’s preferred gauge showed headline inflation at 2.3%, or 2.6% on core that excludes food and energy. However, as with all aspects of the economy, it all depends on what happens with tariffs. Recent indications of progress in negotiations along with some softening from the administration has helped reverse a huge stock market sell-off after the April 2 “liberation day” announcement from Trump. However, business surveys show a high degree of anxiety, with most managers reporting concerns about supplies and pricing from the tariffs. Market pricing regarding Fed action has been volatile as well. Heading into the meeting, pricing indicated virtually no chance of a cut this week and less than 30% probability of a move in June, with the next cut expected in July. Traders are pricing in a total three cuts this year, though that could change following Wednesday’s decision. The committee’s decision to hold the benchmark rate steady was unanimous. The fed funds rate is used by banks for overnight lending but also feeds into other consumer debt such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards." MY COMMENT NOTHING to see here....other than some obvious.....CYA....language and positioning by the FED for when they wait too long as they sit and do nothing. Personally I dont think a rate cut was necessary right now....but probably within the next 1-4 months. Being a STICKLER for language....I love the characterization of the economy as...."SPUTTERING"....by this writer. A label that I see as....FALSE. I will be interested to see all the media SPIN and gasping over the FED today. It was totally obvious what they were going to do today and why. BUT....you got to get those clicks somehow.
Ok we are now past the FED....successfully. Another month done for them. I had a good medium gain today. Only three stocks....GOOGL, COST, and AAPL....down today. AND....a beat on the SP500 today by.....0.26%. A very erratic day with a pleasant end.
I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual. NO....the economy is not SPUTTERING. NO.....there is no "real" recession going to happen. YES....we remain in a BULL MARKET. YES...it is only a matter of time....probably a few months...till the FED cuts rates again. YES....it is a great time to be a long term ivnestor.
I saw this a few minutes ago.....the DEVIL.....will be in the details. BUT I like the broad strokes of this change in the meantime. Nvidia shares climb on report Trump will end chip export restrictions https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/trump-chips-exports-nvidia.html "Key Points Nvidia shares rose on Wednesday on a report that the Trump administration plans to revise a set of chip trade restrictions called the “AI diffusion” rule. The chip restrictions were scheduled to take effect on May 15."
At this point I have been having a STELLAR earnings season. I still have WMT next week.....HD the week after.....and NVDA and COST the week after that. As usual I am hoping for an announcement of a COSTCO stock split....as I have been after many earnings reports now. Some day they will actually......just do it....and make us shareholders happy.
OK......it begins. Here is what is driving the nice GAINS early in the markets today. The first of many. Trump set to unveil 'full' US-UK trade deal, first since 'Liberation Day' tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...t-since-liberation-day-tariffs-191201364.html MY COMMENT NO...it is not a war.....it is ALL a big negotiation....that will all be over in the short term. Short term being 1-6 months.
I "hear" that the very large gains of early morning have been impacted by this little bit of economic data. Obscure stuff for sure: US worker productivity declines in first quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-w..._ZpgayLm0O7keRbuvCY7W7301sfwsUkMALmerPsuyQrQh
HERE is the markets today.....or I should say....."was".....since some of the gains have now moderated. Dow rises 200 points after Trump says U.S. and UK reach trade deal: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were higher Thursday after President Donald Trump announced that a trade deal between the U.S. and United Kingdom had been struck. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 205 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%. “The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come,” Trump said in a Truth Social post after teasing the announcement in previous posts. Trump said there will be a news conference at 10 a.m. ET to announce the deal. Tech shares rose, boosted on news Wednesday that the Trump administration is preparing to rescind Biden-era artificial intelligence chip controls that would have taken effect later this month. Nvidia traded about 0.5% higher, and Intel climbed 3.3%. AMD traded more than 3% higher as well. Megacaps Meta Platforms and Amazon advanced more than 1% each, and Tesla popped over 3%. Thursday’s moves come after a winning session on Wall Street that saw volatile moves, as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve policy announcement and monitored for signs of progress on trade deals. Market participants share increasing worries that a global trade war could send prices higher and worsen inflationary pressures. The Fed on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight borrowing unchanged, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-decision press conference that if announced tariffs remain at their current levels, they could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, a spike in long-term inflation and greater unemployment. While the Fed appears content to stick to its wait-and-see approach, there’s a growing concern that soft data, like sentiment and confidence, will eventually show up in the hard data, like retail sales, GDP, and employment ... So far though, that concern has not come to fruition,” said Bret Kenwell, eToro U.S. investment analyst. “If we do start to see deterioration in the labor market, jobless claims could be an early indicator to that development, and at least for now, we’re not seeing it materialize.”" MY COMMENT ALL the big events of the week are now done. SO.....the markets will simply float for the next two days.....subject to whatever media story-lines fear mongering everything and anything pop up. It is good to be done with the BIG drama this week.
The other....."MINOR"....news items today. NO......I dont care much about the week to week and month to month economic data or news items that now come out every day, week, or month. ALL I care about is the BIG PICTURE.....not the micro-details. US wholesale inventories revised slightly lower in March https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wholesale-inventories-revised-slightly-141954118.html AND EU sets out possible 95 billion euro response to U.S. tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-sets-95-billion-euro-120553063.html MY COMMENT YAWN.....WHATEVER.
OK....human people. I am now going to bail to get ready to go to the studio today. There is nothing I care about in a one day market anyway. it is all about the long term. BUT......I definately like to make money......so......MAKE ME SOME TODAY. AND....while you are at it.....MAKE SOME FOR YOURSELF. AMAZINGLY.......ALL content talking about the dreaded CORRECTION and the dreaded RECESSION.....appears to be mostly gone. Who would have ever thought........CARRY ON.......and......DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE MULE, JUST LOAD THE WAGON.
Well, looks like the markets hung on to stay in the positive today. Fading towards the end a bit, but still positive. We will take it.
I did well today with a very nice gain. A single RED stock....WMT. AND a good beat on the SP500 by.....0.59%.
WOW.....BITCOIN....now at $103,679. Pushing toward the ALL TIME HIGH of $109,026. The recent LOW......same as stocks April 7/8. The correction for BITCOIN is.....OVER.
Personal habits go a long way to creating LIFE SUCCESS.....as well as financial success. 7 life lessons from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with picking stocks We all have the ability to emulate the Oracle of Omaha in the ways that really matter https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7...-to-do-with-picking-stocks-e9f4d7e3?st=ucALHX (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "I’ve been an admirer of Warren Buffett ever since he told the dot-com crowd to go jump in a lake. The value of his stock in Berkshire Hathaway halved during the dot-com bubble, and everyone said he’d “lost it” and “didn’t get it” and was “too old.” He didn’t care. He didn’t waver. Time proved him right, of course. I’ve been following Buffett and writing about him for a quarter-century, which is long by some measures and no time at all by others. (He has been managing money for nearly three times that long.) Now that he has announced, at age 94, that he is at last retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, there are all the usual encomia about his investment genius and his stock-picking skills. And those are extraordinary, no question: It is very unlikely we would see his like again, even if we lived 10 lifetimes. But it’s all the other stuff that has really struck me over the years — the smart decisions about life and money he’s made that don’t get so much attention. And that’s a pity, because those who try to replicate Buffett’s investment success probably won’t succeed. But everyone can learn from the other stuff. 1. He never moved to New York. Buffett never left Omaha, Neb., where the cost of living is a fraction of New York City and the quality of life, for him and probably for most people, is going to be much higher. (Bankrate reckons the cost of living in Omaha is 60% below that in Manhattan — meaning someone in Omaha need only earn $40,000 a year to have the same standard of living of someone in New York with an income of $100,000.) Compare and contrast with all those people paying through the nose to live in a nice home in an expensive locale, or living in a shoebox, or spending 90 minutes commuting each way. Employers are now pushing everyone back to the office. Fair enough. But how about if more employers moved their offices somewhere more livable and affordable? It’s not the office that workers hate so much as the commute. 2. He didn’t waste money on stuff. Not for him the yachts, expensive cars, luxury properties or other toys of the rich and bored. Buffett seemed to understand early and instinctively what it has taken psychologists decades to conclude: That beyond a certain level, more spending will add little or nothing to your happiness. (When giving away his money, he said that spending beyond about 1% of his net worth on himself and his family would add nothing to their well-being or happiness.) Psychologists refer to “the hedonic treadmill.” This is the futility — hence “treadmill” — of trying to achieve happiness by constantly buying more and bigger and better stuff. The problem is that the human brain adapts to whatever we have. We get used to it. This is why lottery winners typically end up no happier years later than anyone else, and why if you visit a place where really rich people hang out — Palm Beach, Fla., or a five-star luxury hotel — and look around, you probably won’t see them all grinning madly about the fact that they are rich and marveling at all the things they can afford. But while “stuff” is costly to the rich, it’s lethal to the rest of us: That’s money we will need. The only way to beat the treadmill is to get off it. 3. He has a job he loves. From a financial standpoint, Buffett hasn’t had to work since he was in his 40s, but he kept going for another half-century — and loved it. “I’ve always worked in a job I love,” he once said. “I loved it just as much when it was a big deal if I made a thousand bucks, and I urge you to work in jobs you love.” Another time he described his job more as “play” than “work.” This is priceless advice. Most of us will spend most of our waking hours, for the bulk of our lives, either working, traveling to or from work, getting ready for work or recovering from it. What is the dollar value of that time? It was a wise person who first observed that if you do a job you love, you’ll never work a day in your life. 4. He has given, and is continuing to give, most of his money away. It’s almost impossible to imagine all the good that will be achieved with the hundreds of billions of dollars that Buffett has accumulated during his lifetime and that he is giving away to good causes. “Were we to use more than 1% of my claim checks (Berkshire Hathaway stock certificates) on ourselves,” he writes, “neither our happiness nor our well-being would be enhanced. In contrast, that remaining 99% can have a huge effect on the health and welfare of others.” 5. He didn’t care what the crowd thought. After more than a quarter of a century of writing about markets and finance, I’ve come to think my main expertise — possibly my only expertise — is on the subject of “popular delusions and the madness of crowds.” From ancient Greece to the COVID-19 crisis, it’s a subject that has fascinated me. And learning about it has made me especially fond of Buffett. It wasn’t only during the dot-com bubble that he stood against the crowd’s insanity. He closed down his first partnership in the 1960s rather than join in the bubble of the “go-go years.” He invested, and publicly urged others to invest, during the epic bear market of the 1970s. He did it again during the 2008 crash. He made his money by courageously standing up against mass insanity and sticking to his principles. Bravo. 6. He’s humble. I’ve always said I don’t trust anyone until I have heard them say “I don’t know” and “I was wrong.” Buffett’s willingness to do both has been among his greatest and most profitable attributes. He has frequently emphasized that he invests only within his “circle of competence,” meaning he only invests in what he knows. And he admits there is a lot he doesn’t know. “During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my letters to you,” he wrote to stockholders in the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway annual report. “Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span.” For them, he added, “it has generally been happy talk and pictures.” 7. He’s acted like a grown-up. Can you imagine Warren Buffett standing around on a stage (in a graphic T-shirt) waving a chainsaw in the air and laughing about the middle-class jobs he was going to eliminate? Can you imagine him bragging about using bankruptcy laws to stiff his creditors? Can you imagine him running a bank so recklessly that it would end up crashing the global economy, but cashing out of his own stock before the stuff hit the fan, and then walking away with a shrug? I can’t. But I’ve seen billionaires and Wall Street tycoons do exactly those things in the recent past. If you want to see how a billionaire should behave — in my view, anyway — watch Buffett’s remarkable statement to Congress during the Salomon Brothers hearings in 1991. There are billionaires, and then there are billionaires. We have too many of one kind, and too few of the other." MY COMMENT Some good life advice above....and indirectly some investment advice. In the end you have to be TRUE to yourself and understand yourself.
Oh yes....there are actually markets happening today. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher as Trump floats cut to China tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...mp-floats-cut-to-china-tariffs-133025194.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks stepped higher on Friday after President Trump floated a cut to US tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of highly anticipated talks between the two countries this weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) gained about 0.5%. Markets are focused on the US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend, following a rally in stocks on Thursday as Trump unveiled a US-UK trade pact. As reports flagged a potential US cut to sky-high tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump said an 80% rate "seems right" in a post to Truth Social on Friday. The president this week has maintained an optimistic tone about the talks with China, saying they would be "substantive." Hopes for a deescalation in tariff tensions got a further boost on Friday as Trump said, "Many Trade Deals in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones" in a later social media post. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is rallying against the dollar amid the optimism, trading above $103,000 after topping $104,000 overnight. On the earnings front, Pinterest (PINS) stock surged as much as 12% early trading. An upbeat quarterly revenue outlook bolstered hopes that ad spending on its social media platform will stay strong in the face of tariff risks to the economy. But Expedia (EXPE) slid after the online booking platform missed revenue estimates amid flagging US demand." MY COMMENT As expected the markets are UP nicely today. I "hear" that the DOW is not out of correction. My portfolio definately is...being around the (-5%) range. We have now moved significantly above the market low of April 7/8. LOOKING GOOD....if you simply ignore all the short term drama and obsessive 24/7 news/opinion coverage.
