The Long Term Investor

Speaking of NVDA.....probably the most DISRESPECTED stock in the world....right now. In my view....INSANITY.


Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Preserves Pack Leader Status Following Q1

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-nvda-preserves-pack-190600252.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia (NVDA) once again proved to the markets, after reporting its Q1 earnings, that it remains the undisputed leader powering the global AI revolution, driven by relentless demand for its chips, even amid ongoing geopolitical and trade headwinds.

Beyond beating all key metrics (excluding one-off events) and offering guidance that resonated well with investors, Nvidia stock experienced a strong post-earnings surge, even if the momentum cooled slightly in the days that followed.


Nvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
That said, there’s arguably still a missing spark needed to fully reignite the stock’s momentum heading into 2025. However, considering the broader growth story, Nvidia continues to trade at a very attractive valuation—one that could deliver meaningful alpha over the long term.

Short- to mid-term bumps, especially tied to macro risks in China, are worth monitoring but don’t alter the core thesis. Given the company’s strong execution and still-intact fundamentals, I continue to rate NVDA as a Buy.

When Crushing Expectations Becomes the Norm

As I pointed out in a previous article, for Nvidia stock to perform well after its Q1 Fiscal 2026 results, it wouldn’t be enough to simply beat estimates—it needed to crush them and deliver guidance that topped market expectations.

And that’s precisely what Nvidia did. The company reported revenue of $44 billion (as shown in the chart below), beating its own guidance of $43 billion—a massive 69% increase year-over-year. Gross margins, which had been a point of concern during the early stages of Blackwell’s rollout, came in at 71.3% (excluding the H20 charge, a financial write-off tied to its China-specific H20 GPUs). That’s also above the guided range of 70.6% to 71%.


Nvidia (NVDA) Revenue by Segment
Even more impressive was the Q2 guidance. Nvidia is projecting $45 billion in revenue, with a margin of plus or minus 2%. At the high end, that’s $45.9 billion—above the ~$45.5 billion consensus estimate leading into earnings day. Margins are expected to rise again, landing between 71.8% and 72.0%, with a margin of error of approximately 50 basis points.

At the top of that range, it suggests another round of margin expansion, which is exactly what investors wanted to hear. The company continues to state that once Blackwell production is fully ramped, margins could move into the 70–80% range over the next few quarters.

This stronger-than-expected performance, along with the recovery in margins, led to long-term EPS estimates getting bumped up by around 9% starting in FY2029. Revenue projections for those years were also revised higher by roughly 8%. Not surprisingly, Nvidia shares jumped more than 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, although the stock mostly leveled off in the sessions since.

What Fuels the Bears Right Now in Nvidia’s Story

In my view, the muted post-earnings reaction is actually a positive sign—it shows the market didn’t see enough red flags to justify a selloff in Nvidia stock. However, bears argue that even with revenue jumping nearly 70% year-over-year, signs of fatigue in the growth story are evident, with sequential growth of just 12% potentially indicating that Nvidia’s explosive momentum is entering a more seasonal or plateauing phase.

For a company priced for hypergrowth, this kind of quarter-over-quarter slowdown can be an early warning signal. And it’s not just about the numbers—geopolitical and regulatory pressures are starting to have real consequences. The U.S. export restrictions on AI chips like the H20 led to a $4.5 billion write-down and forced Nvidia to walk away from an estimated $15 billion in potential sales to China.

That’s not just a short-term financial hit—it also opens the door for competitors like Huawei to gain ground, especially as they accelerate domestic chip development. Although analysts have raised long-term estimates following Q1, there remains a genuine possibility that Nvidia’s global dominance could face challenges over time, particularly if policy pressures persist. When factoring in the impact of the H20 write-off, Q1 would have been the first quarter since the AI boom began in which Nvidia did not achieve sequential growth. And for a stock valued for perfection, even a modest slowdown can pose a valuation risk.


Nvidia (NVDA) Risk Analysis
To me, the bigger issue here is that this goes beyond Nvidia—it’s about the strategic direction of U.S. tech leadership. As CEO, Jensen Huang has warned that if the U.S. continues down this restrictive path without a more balanced strategy, it may ultimately strengthen Huawei and erode America’s edge in AI. That’s the kind of long-term headwind that bears are likely to latch onto as the growth narrative gets more complicated.

Growth Justifies Nvidia’s Attractive Price Tag

But setting the macro risks aside, Nvidia’s bull case remains intact after Q1, especially when considering its growth. The company continues to stand out as a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunity. Currently, Nvidia trades at 31.6x forward earnings, with a consensus growth rate of 29% CAGR over the next three to five years. This results in a PEG ratio of just 1x—virtually identical to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), despite AMD’s significantly slower growth outlook, and significantly lower than most of the other Magnificent 7 names.


Nvidia (NVDA) peer comparison
Of course, for that valuation to hold up, Nvidia’s growth trajectory needs to remain clean and strong. But honestly, it’s hard to think of another company with Nvidia’s size and scale, this level of fundamental quality, and such massive exposure to secular tailwinds like AI, trading at such an attractive growth-adjusted valuation.

What is the 12-Month Price Target for NVDA Stock?

Among the 40 analysts who’ve covered NVDA in the past three months, there’s hardly any room for doubt: 35 rate the stock as a Buy, while only four suggest Hold. Not a single analyst rates NVDA stock as a Sell. Currently, NVDA’s average stock price target is $173.57, implying a potential upside of 22% from the current share price.
Nvidia’s Risks in Sight, Reward in Focus

Setting aside one-off events, Nvidia left the bears with almost nothing to complain about—crushing its own guidance and delivering a Q2 forecast that dispels doubts about how quickly gross margins are recovering.

While risks like evolving U.S. sanctions on China, Nvidia’s ability to maintain its presence in that market, and rising local competition are worth keeping an eye on, they don’t outweigh the current risk-reward of going long, especially given the company’s strong growth trajectory."

MY COMMENT

I consider this company one of the greatest investments of the past 40 years. I put them up there with MSFT as one of two.....once in a lifetime.....investments that I have made.

BUT....how the markets treat this company is a concern. I have no clue why the stock is disrespected. After all this is one of the TOP TWO highest market cap company in the world putting up EPIC earnings quarter after quarter. AND....I own them both.

My ONLY......small..... concern with NVDA is the refusal of the markets and some in the investing community to reward and recognize their AMAZING performance. I believe it is IDIOTIC....but....if it continues for many years it will make the FACTS of what this company has done.....invisible and irrelevant.

Of course....as a shareholder....I am confident that the GREAT MANAGEMENT and GREAT EARNINGS at this company will win out in the end.....and the disrespect will turn out to simply be MORONIC and short term IDIOCY...... in hindsight.

 

I will mention.....I will miss next Friday in the markets. It seems like I am all over the state of Texas lately. Next week I will be in DALLAS on Friday.....and will probably not post much after the open.

 

Regarding my little post on the SP500 a page back. We are NOW closing in on ALL TIME HIGHS for all the big averages. I think the probability is that we will hit them ALL this year.

 

HERE is the week to come....pretty much BORING and NORMAL for the markets. Although the fear-mongers MIGHT have a chance to FLEX with the CPI numbers.

What To Expect in Markets This Week: May Inflation Data, Apple Conference, GameStop Earnings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-markets-week-may-inflation-090000203.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"News from a tech giant, inflation data and earnings from a meme-stock legend are among the highlights of the week ahead in markets.

Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference opens the week with a keynote session from CEO Tim Cook scheduled for Monday. Cook will likely use the event to address the company's new products, services, and partnerships. GameStop could clarify its cryptocurrency strategy on the company's earnings call, set for Tuesday. Key companies in the growing artificial intelligence (AI) market are also scheduled to update investors on their financials during the week.

A U.S. inflation report scheduled for Wednesday could indicate whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs are beginning to have an effect on the economy. The news follows a healthy jobs report Friday.

After markets shook off trade tensions last week to bring the S&P 500 back above 6000, investors will keep an eye on tariffs as Trump’s deadline on trade deals approaches. At the same time, the Senate will continue to work toward passage of Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” budget bill amid increasing criticism from Tesla CEO and former Department of Government Efficiency Chief Elon Musk.

Economists Look for Inflation’s Impact in May CPI Report

Wednesday’s expected release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the first look at inflation from May. With a Federal Reserve meeting around the corner, the report could set the tone for the central bank as it faces pressure from Trump to lower interest rates. Fed officials are in their blackout period ahead of their next two-day meeting, which begins June 17.

Trump’s tariffs will be a key topic in Friday’s consumer sentiment report, which dropped for four straight months before leveling out in May. Consumers are consistently worried that tariffs will drive inflation higher, sending the closely watched survey to some of its lowest readings since the pandemic. As inflation has lately appeared in check, the freefall in sentiment may have hit bottom.

GameStop Reports As It Jumps into Bitcoin Market

GameStop’s (GME) earnings report comes as the video-game retailer dips its toe in the cryptocurrency pool. The company, which fired up the meme stock craze in 2021 with its meteoric rise, announced in late May that it bought $500 million in bitcoin. With its retail video game business in decline, GameStop looks to emulate the playbook of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and other companies centering their business models on buying bitcoin.

AI will be a key theme in other corporate earnings this week. Oracle’s (ORCL) report on Wednesday follows the January announcement that the database software firm would join ChatGPT maker OpenAI and SoftBank as part of a joint venture known as Stargate to build AI infrastructure. Adobe’s (ADBE) report on Thursday is also expected to focus on the company’s sales of AI-enhanced graphics software."

MY COMMENT

The CPI report on Wednesday will be about the last (rational) chance for the fear-mongers to claim that TARIFFs are going to increase inflation. If it does not show this time.....after 2-3 months of fear-mongering....they will have simply been WRONG. Big surprise.

As usual.....I believe....that the PPI will be released on Thursday this week.

As to the consumer survey mentioned above.....it is ALREADY showing that consumers are much more positive.....although not mentioned above.

The rest of the week....BORING and NORMAL.

 

I have not said this in a while BUT......EVERYONE....is welcome and encouraged to post on here regardless of your investing/trading style, personal views, and/or opinions. PLEASE JOIN US.

 

Today I was siting around BORED so I decided to see what would pop up if I "google"......"what are the best stock message boards".

In response I got.....on the very top of the page a list of 9 sites which includes STOCKAHOLICS.

The SECOND article on the page......the only one above it was "sponsored".....was an article on the six best stock market forums to visit. NUMBER TWO.....STOCKAHOLICS.

Pretty impressive for this site.

 

I like this little article.

Inflation Is Back to Normal
How the last big market worry informs the current one.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/inflation-is-back-to-normal

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"False fear morphs are hallmarks of bull markets—which, after all, climb walls of worry. With tariffs siphoning attention from inflation, there is a new worry dominating. But as inflation shows, once markets get the measure of a story, even when it is fundamentally bad, they can quickly look through it and move on. Let us run through some recent inflation data to show you how and why.

Eurostat released eurozone inflation data Tuesday showing the bloc’s harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) easing to 1.9% y/y in May. (Exhibit 1) The return to sub-2% inflation—below the ECB’s target—while notable, isn’t new. HICP hit 1.7% y/y last September. The blip upward from there, though, caused many to fret—and fight the last war, worrying renewed price pressures would sink stocks anew.

Exhibit 1: Eurozone Inflation Rates Back to Historical Norms




Source: FactSet, as of 6/5/2025.

But as you can see, while post-traumatic inflation stress can embed itself in people’s mindsets, it doesn’t dictate the future. The past isn’t prologue. Successful investing, in our view, requires looking forward—like markets do—and seeing how reality is likely to differ from the crowd’s expectations, which are often unduly shaped by prior events.

Back in the USA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Fed’s targeted measure of inflation last Friday. The headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index dynamically weights its components based on consumers’ monthly purchases—versus CPI’s fixed weights—better accounting for households’ actual inflation experience.

Exhibit 2 shows the latest April headline reading at 2.1% y/y, back at last September’s rate. Like the eurozone, this seemingly spells relief. After the PCE price index’s brief blip higher, it is within spitting distance of the Fed’s (squishier) 2% average inflation target. In our view, it doesn’t matter that the rate is a tenth of a percentage point above that mark. Simply, inflation data aren’t that precise and there is no evidence, from anywhere globally, that central banks can fine tune economic data to that degree.

Exhibit 2: US Inflation’s Return to Normal in the Rearview, Too




Source: FactSet, as of 6/5/2025.

Still, inflation remains a thorny issue on the minds of many American and European investors and pundits. Consider the University of Michigan’s split on party lines over inflation viewpoints. As Exhibit 3 shows, inflation expectations for Democrats and Republicans flipped after November’s elections. The latest read through April: 5.1% for Democrats and for Republicans, switch the digits to 1.5%.

Exhibit 3: Americans’ Expected Annual Inflation Rate Over the Next Five Years by Party Affiliation




Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, as of 6/5/2025.

Tariffs are likely a key dividing point. They could raise some prices, but inflation is about prices economywide. Those are unlikely to spiral higher anew without a spike in money supply. And that isn’t happening in the US or Europe. US M4—America’s broadest measure of money supply—rose 4.0% y/y in April, a rate that prevailed prepandemic and a far cry from June 2020’s 30.4%. For the eurozone, the ECB’s April M3 (its broadest measure) rose 3.9% y/y—also historically low.

Exhibit 4: US and Eurozone Money Supply Isn’t Spurring Inflation




Source: Center for Financial Stability and ECB, as of 6/5/2025.

Markets almost always move on from issues well before people do—it is why investors face risks from fighting the last war. So it is with inflation now. Look, 2022’s bear market wasn’t all about inflation. But it was one factor among many. And one factor markets moved on from nearly three years ago. If you still fear hot or sticky inflation, it is time to turn the page. The fundamental backdrop has very much moved on. Investors who haven’t yet risk falling out of step."

MY COMMENT

Inflation has not been an issue for some time now. The FED is chasing a GHOST....primarily due to their unsupported 2% target. Personally I have ZERO interest or concern with inflation.

It is a waste of time to say it again....but....normal inflation in the USA is about 3%.....and at times as high as 4%.

 

This seems to be a story with some focus today.....but...I dont expect anything to come from this. It is just a meaningless short term little event.

What to expect from Apple's WWDC event as Wall Street looks for AI gains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what...wall-street-looks-for-ai-gains-130005429.html

 

A nice little open today. I can see from the ticker that I have five stocks up and four down to start the day. Looking at what is up and down I am pretty sure I have a gain. My down stocks so far....HD, COST, WMT, and PLTR.

The big averages are mixed with the DOW down a bit and the SP500 and NASDAQ in the green.

Looks like another week of little to nothing going on in the markets and the financial news. We are in the lull between earnings. Of course we have the CPI and PPI that will come out this week....but....I dont expect much change in either one and certainly nothing SHOCKING. If I was going to guess what they will show.....and I will.....I expect them to show either stable inflation or even a slight drop. I see inflation as yesterdays news.

For long term investors it should be an easy week to simply sit and do nothing. As usual doing nothing is the best course of action....or more accurately....inaction.

 

It is a good day when I cant find much of anything to post on here. So....I will go away for awhile and see how we mature into the day.

 

On my way to a nice little win today...if the markets can hang on for another....12 minutes.

 

This economic data is just becoming ridiculously inaccurate. In addition they constantly change the criteria, how it is collected, etc, etc. SO...it is impossible to compare with any accuracy.

For me....I simply dont care....since I NEVER invest according to any government data.

Economic data quality deteriorates — 2 thoughts for investors

https://www.tker.co/p/economic-data-quality-issues-survey-response-rate

 

As to the above:

"For the second straight month, however, a “beat” on the headline job growth
number looks less inspiring thanks to a sizable downward revision to
estimates of job growth in prior months. In this case, prior estimates of
job growth in March and April were revised down by a net 95,000 jobs
for the two-month period."

May Employment Report: Revisions Temper Headline Beat

https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/06/2717_employment.pdf

YES.....everyone is INCOMPETENT. The more we have computers, AI, technology, etc, etc......the less reliable anything is.

 

For such a great company and good management.....APPLE is one of the DUMBEST names in the tech world when it comes to PR. They just dont seem to have the slightest clue how to sell themselves to investors or make a splash.

Apple's WWDC touts biggest software changes in years but lacks splashy AI reveal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...rs-but-lacks-splashy-ai-reveal-184806903.html

 

A nice mild/medium gain for me today to start the week. I had only four stocks RED today.....WMT, AAPL, HD and COST. It is always a good day for me when PLTR and NVDA are green.

I also beat the SP500 today by...0.47%.

 

HERE was the markets today.

S&P 500 posts back-to-back gain as traders optimistic U.S-China trade talks making progress

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 closed marginally higher on Monday as President Donald Trump’s officials met with their Chinese counterparts in an effort to resolve trade issues between the two economic giants.

The S&P 500 added 0.09%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average
ticked down 1.11 points.

Officials from the U.S. and China held trade talks on Monday in London, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer representing the U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday that the U.S. was seeking confirmation that China would restore critical mineral exports.

“The purpose of the meeting today is to make sure that they’re serious ... to literally get handshakes ... and get this thing behind us,” Hassett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Our expectation is that ... immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased, and the rare earths will be released in volume, and then we can go back to negotiating smaller matters.”

The talks are set to continue on Tuesday morning, a source familiar with the situation told CNBC. The meeting in London comes after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a lengthy phone call last week. Last month, the two countries agreed to temporarily cut tariffs while trade negotiations proceeded.

Shares of several semiconductor companies rose on Monday. Qualcomm jumped more than 4% after the chipmaker announced it will acquire semiconductor firm Alphawave for $2.4 billion. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Texas Instruments each added more than 4%, while Nvidia shares ticked higher. Alibaba gained 2%.

“Investors are taking bullish trades today on China large caps and U.S. semiconductor stocks, which are both beneficiaries of U.S./China trade talks,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.

Separately, Apple shares lost 1.5% as the company held its 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference, during which it announced its first new iPhone operating system redesign since 2013.

Inflation data is expected to be a key topic later in the week. The latest consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Thursday. Traders will be looking for clues as to how the current tariff rates are flowing through the economy.

Monday’s moves come after all three of the major indexes notched their second-straight winning week. The S&P 500 on Friday closed above the 6,000 level for the first time since Feb. 21."

MY COMMENT

A very nice little day today. NOW...lets keep it going for the entire week and make some NICE MONEY.

VISUALIZE GREEN....EVERYONE.

 

The SP500 continues to inch toward an ALL time high....as do the other big averages. The SP5000 closed at 6005.88 today....the high is 6147.43.

PLTR closed at $132.02 today closing on the high of $135.28. Even old NVDA is not too far from a high closing today at $142.63.......with a prior high of $153.13.

It also appears that the USA and China are quickly closing in on a Tariff deal. There are also a big number of other countries that are close. Once the Tariff dam breaks.....we could be in for a run-away market for a short time...perhaps 2-4 weeks. With summer right around the corner...it would be a nice little summer rally.

Everything seems to be lining up for a very nice second half to 2025. it is called a......BULL MARKET. And once we get through 2025.......with the new tax bill in place and done with Tariffs......and earnings continuing to hit it out of the park.....watch out.....we could see an EPIC run up in stocks.

Of course trying to project that far out for the markets is simply....GUESS-WORK. Not to mention the usual potential for the dreaded short term market killer.......the BLACK SWAN.

SO....I will hope for the best......and......plan for the worst......and simply wait till the future becomes hindsight and it is all known.

 

Hey Lori....you got a report for us? Doing good?