HERE is the markets today. S&P 500 posts slim gain Monday as traders hope for lower tariffs before Aug. 1 deadline https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 edged higher on Monday even after President Donald Trump threatened high tariffs on more countries over the weekend. Losses were kept in check as investors bet those duties will eventually be negotiated down and looked ahead to a busy week for second-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 added 0.14% to close at 6,268.56, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27% to settle at 20,640.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 88.14 points, or 0.20%, ending at 44,459.65. Investors continue to monitor ongoing updates on the tariff front, after Trump announced Saturday that the U.S. will impose 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico starting Aug. 1. Leaders of the EU and Mexico indicated they intend to keep talking with the Trump administration this month in an attempt to agree on a lower rate. The U.S. president’s announcement comes ahead of inflation readings this week, which will give investors a better sense of how the Trump tariffs already in effect are being felt throughout the economy. Eyes are on a slew of earnings reports set to roll out this week. Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will deliver quarterly reports starting Tuesday. “The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues that are still there in the background,” said Glen Smith, chief investment officer of Texas-based GDS Wealth Management. “So far, the market has been able to withstand tariff headlines and is more focused on earnings and economic resiliency.” Another potential factor for investors to monitor is the rift between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. On Sunday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC News that Trump can fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell “if there’s cause.” Trump officials are probing the costs of renovation of the Federal Reserve’s main building in Washington, D.C., while the president has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates. The central bank has pushed back against some of the criticisms of the renovation project. Monday’s moves come after a negative week for stocks, although the major averages are still near record highs." MY COMMENT Last week was strongly POSITIVE for me. I am hoping....and actually expecting...that this week will be the same. Today was a good start for me. Tomorrow we will get the CPI data at 8:30 ET. No doubt the story of the day....along with big bank earnings.
Talk about booming METAL prices. Silver Extends Surge to Almost 14-Year High on Tight Market https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-gains-trump-doubles-down-232456478.html "Silver climbed close to a 14-year high as investors sought alternatives to a near-record gold price, with increased demand tightening physical supply. Spot silver rose as much as 1.9% on Monday, topping $39 an ounce, following last week’s 4% rally. The implied annualized cost of borrowing the metal for one month has jumped to more than 6%, compared with the typical rate near zero." MY COMMENT GOOD TIMES....I am even making money on metal which I dont hold as an investment. I will take it.
If you care about a one time CPI reading tomorrow. Inflation report Tuesday should provide clues on the impact tariffs are having on prices https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/14/inf...-give-clues-on-price-effect-from-tariffs.html
PLTR...what a beast. Just entered Nov 1 (last year), according Mr. Yahoo Finance, where I track a couple of my accounts. Clever move would have been keeping increasing position instead trying to pulverize savings on other stuff. But we cant predict future, just invest in our better guesses/opinions.
Yes rg7803 your PLTR has been on fire in a good way. Overall market posted a small gain today, but anything on the plus side is okay by me. No doubt some of the little economic reports mentioned above will be analyzed to the microscopic level as usual. Of course most will spin it to fit whatever narrative they are paid to push. It is a never ending cycle of magic smoke and mirrors to a point.
The good news just keeps piling up for NVDA and US shareholders. Nvidia says it will resume H20 AI chip sales to China ‘soon,’ following U.S. government assurances https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/nvi...-it-to-resume-h20-ai-chip-sales-to-china.html "Key Points Nvidia said on Tuesday that it is filing applications with the U.S. government to resume sales of its previously restricted H20 GPU to clients in China. “The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,” the company said in a press release."
The NVDA story above is a.....BIG DEAL. At least in the futures this morning. NVDA was up significantly....$7.68.....or...+4.68%. NOW....we have to see if that carries forward to the REAL market once we open. Sometimes things like that do carry forward....other times....they dont.
Seems NORMAL to me. Inflation has been right in the historic NORMAL range for the past 6 or more months. We are the greatest economy in the world and we are doing very well. We are told over and over that CORE INFLATION is what counts. Well it was up in the latest CPI.....LESS....than expected. The general CPI increase was in line with expectations. SO.....NOTHING to see here.....move on. Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Consumer prices rose in June as President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to slowly work their way through the U.S. economy. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus, though the annual rate is the highest since February. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, with the annual rate in line with estimates. The monthly level was slightly below the outlook for a 0.3% gain. Prior to June, inflation had been on a generally downward slope for the year, with headline CPI at a 3% annual rate back in January and progressing gradually slower in the subsequent months despite fears that Trump’s trade war would drive prices higher. While the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact. Vehicle prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices increased 0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1% for the month. Shelter prices increased just 0.2% for the month, but the BLS said the category was still the largest contributor to the overall CPI gain. The index rose 3.8% from a year ago. Within the category, a measurement of what homeowners feel they could receive if they rented their properties increased 0.3%. However, lodging away from home slipped 2.9%. Elsewhere, food prices increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual gain at 3%, while energy prices reversed a loss in May and rose 0.9%, though they are still down marginally from a year ago. Medical care services were up 0.6% while transportation services edged higher by 0.2%. With the rise in prices, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings fell 0.1% in June, the BLS said in a separate release. Real earnings increased 1% on an annual basis. Markets largely took the inflation report in stride. Stock market indexes were mixed while Treasury yields were mostly negative. Amid the previously muted inflation ratings, Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which it has not done since December. The president has insisted that tariffs are not aggravating inflation, and has contended that the Fed’s refusal to ease is raising the costs the U.S. has to pay on its burgeoning debt and deficit problem. Central bankers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, have refused to budge. They insist that the U.S. economy is in a strong enough position now that the Fed can afford to wait to see the impact tariffs will have on inflation. Trump in turn has called on Powell to resign and is certain to name someone else to the job when the chair’s term expires in May 2026. Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold when it meets at the end of July and then cut by a quarter percentage point in September." MY COMMENT Here is the key comment above: ".....the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact." "Signs" is meaningless.....many categories above are showing price declines. there is NOTHING to show any clear cut impact of tariffs on inflation. Some of the drivers of the data above has NOTHING to do with tariffs....medical services and health care.....shelter had the largest impact on the data.....vehicles were down contrary to what tariff fear-mongers would expect.....etc, etc, etc. Basically an "expected" report....with the important "CORE" inflation up LESS than expected. Good enough for me since I know the truth about the ridiculously LOW 2% inflation target number.
Looks like the CPI and bank earnings were good enough for the market averages at the open today. right now about fifteen minutes in....we are seeing mixed numbers with the DOW in the RED and the SP500 and NASDAQ in the GREEN.
NVDA has.....so far....carried the pre-market gains into the real markets after the open. The stock is UP by over $7 per share. The GOOD NEWS.....I still see MASSIVE tail winds.....for many years..... for the stock in the various news reports on AI spending and other topics of relevance to NVDA.
I like the comments by various so called "experts" in this little story regarding the CPI data. US consumer prices tick up as anticipated in June https://finance.yahoo.com/?guccount..._ZpgayLm0O7keRbuvCY7W7301sfwsUkMALmerPsuyQrQh (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer prices picked up in June, likely marking the start of a long-anticipated tariff-induced increase in inflation that has kept the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. That was the largest gain since January. In the 12 months through June, the CPI advanced 2.7% after rising 2.4% in May. Economists polled Reuters had forecast the CPI would climb 0.3% and increase 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock futures extended gains following the CPI data. BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields pared declines, 10-year yield flat. FOREX: U.S. dollar gains on the yen COMMENTS: BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN: "Tariffs are in the data, but it’s not as devastating as many feared. Appliances and household equipment and furnishings prices jumped nearly 2%, but those only make up around 1% of the consumer price index. Services make up the bulk of the consumption basket and there is scant sign of accelerating inflation there. Rent rose 0.2%, lodging away from home fell 2.9%. It’s not that tariffs don’t matter, it’s just that they don’t matter to inflation as much or as mechanically as many feared." PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK “It's basically good news because core, on a monthly basis, up 0.2% is in line. The yearly number is a little bit higher than expected. What we’re seeing in the headline numbers is that some of the tariff inflation is probably creeping in.” “So it's a little bit hotter than expected, but it’s not all bad news. there is a slight bit evidence of tariff inflation kicking in.” “This data bails out the Fed and it puts them on hold in July. They will have to look at the July and August numbers to make a decision in in September.” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NORTHLIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLOTTE: "Traders were keeping a close eye on this morning’s CPI report and the Fed was probably looking even more closely at it as the internal debate continues into whether or not they should be cutting interest rates right now." "Fortunately, the report this morning was mostly in line with expectations and the core (ex-food and energy) numbers told a story of inflation that was in check (e.g. month-over-month lower than expected and year-over-year inline with +2.9% consensus)." "If it’s true that inflation is staying in check, then the Fed can go ahead and cut interest rates – potentially as early as September – but if subsequent reports show a different story, then the Fed is going to have to stay on hold even longer."" MY COMMENT My opinion is that MOST in the media are really having to stretch to find or identify any clear cut impact of tariffs. Anyone looking at these numbers in a vacuum.....with no knowledge of all the tariff turmoil over the past 3.5 months.....would have no clue anything was going on out of the norm. they would just call this a routine....in line with expectations report with good news on the CORE side of the data.
Here is what I am talking about with NVDA. Nvidia stock eyes fresh record with AI chipmaker set to resume sales in China after US ban https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...me-sales-in-china-after-us-ban-123103542.html
The other BIG MOVET in the tech investing world....PLTR....is sleeping in today. Talking a breather after a HUGE gain yesterday.
Here is one of the better articles I see about the BIG BANK earnings today. US banking giants reap gains from dealmaking rebound https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-banking-giants-reap-gains-132811468.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "NEW YORK (Reuters) -Large U.S. banks expressed optimism about the investment banking outlook for the rest of the year after dealmaking rebounded in the second quarter, as they reported in earnings on Tuesday. Yet lenders remained cautious about the uncertain economic environment and U.S. tariff policies. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo kickstarted second quarter bank earnings on Tuesday, beating profit expectations as the U.S. economy remained resilient even as U.S. trade policies fuel market turbulence. "Despite choppy waters at the start of the quarter in the wake of tariff uncertainty, banks weathered the volatility with business outlook improving as the quarter progressed," KPMG's U.S. banking sector leader Peter Torrente said. JPMorgan's investment banking fees came in higher than their earlier guidance, growing by 7% to $2.5 billion. Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of JPMorgan's commercial and investment bank, had said in May fees could fall by a mid-teens percentage. Investment banking revenues at the largest U.S. lender were helped by higher debt underwriting and advisory fees, while equity underwriting fees dropped. Citigroup also reported a 15% jump in investment banking revenues to $981 million. It was buoyed by momentum in mergers and acquisitions, strength in convertibles and initial public offerings. Wells Fargo reported an 8% uptick in investment banking revenue to $463 million. "It certainly seems like volumes are picking up," Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters on a conference call. "We did see higher advisory fees in the quarter across some deals that flowed in the M&A space," and increased fees in capital markets. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will report their results on Wednesday. While mergers and acquisition ground to a halt in April after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on numerous countries, optimism has picked up among investors in U.S. stocks. IMPROVED SENTIMENT "There is, in general, more growing familiarity with how to deal with uncertainty and volatility" and the impact of tariffs, even if uncertainty persists, Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason told journalists on a conference call. "The general sentiment has improved a bit." "We're seeing really momentum across a multitude of sectors across the board, particularly in healthcare and tech," he added. The pipeline looks good for activity in North America with financial sponsors, he said. While bankers expect stalled deals to come back in the second half of the year, they also expressed caution. JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told reporters things look "a little more upbeat" in investment banking, but added concerns still remain. Industry executives are also hopeful that they will benefit from lighter regulations under Trump. Lenders recently also performed well at Federal Reserve's stress test and showed they have enough capital to withstand possible adverse scenarios. "Investors have come back to the reality that the U.S. economy is strong... the stock market's reflecting that," BNY CEO Robin Vince told reporters on a conference call." MY COMMENT GOOD bank earnings so far....better than expected. AND....all the gains and money being made in Investment Banking is a good sign for the general economy.
What I have posted above is the GUTs of the market news today. MOSTLY positive. Now we have to sit and see how the markets parse and digest this information as the day progresses.
This article goes on and on and on. It is a litany of all the various causes of Target tanking. BUT....it is very interesting to me that it completely AVOIDS the probable cause of their collapse........social and political based......... business policies pushed onto their customers by company Management. I have NO personal comment on those policies in general....people are entitled to believe what they want. BUT......when you decide to tie your business to those sorts of issues that ware extremely divisive.....and piss of half your potential customers.....well you get what you deserve. This is a classic example.....a business school textbook case study....in MANAGEMENT ARROGANCE and STUPIDITY. AND...as long as they REFUSE to even consider the....probable.....actual cause of their collapse....they are screwed. I have ZERO interest in this company since MANAGEMENT is a key factor to me as an investor and it is a BIG FAILURE at Target. 'Lost their identity’: Why Target is struggling to win over shoppers and investors https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/target-stock-and-sales-fall-as-ceo-brian-cornell-contract-ends.html
I have not looked yet....but have no doubt that I have a big gain to start the day. The ticker scrolling across my TV tells me that my big cap tech stocks are booming today and are all in the green. My three RED stocks early in the day are ......HD, COST, and WMT. For me today the market is.....BOOM...POW.....BAM. BRING IT ON.....MAKE MY DAY. I am riding the wave as usual.....on a big surfboard. The wave is BIG and I am being pushed faster and faster...but hey....that is what i do.
Yes, it's all looking rather rosy out there. I have now smashed through my ATH. Good times! Now I have to start thinking about my mortgage as my first fixed term is due to come to an end. I managed to get a 2% deal first time around but will have no such joy this time. Interest rates were up to around 6% last year but have thankfully fallen to around 4% now - and there are signs we could go lower. Given the current climate, I will be happy with anything sub 4%.
GREAT JOB Lori on the new all time high. Here is the USA a 4% rate on a mortgage would be GOLDEN. Here we normally see 30 fixed rate mortgages. In England does it work differently.....with shorter terms that involve adjusting interest rates?
