I looked.....and I have a good gain so far today.....as expected. HERE is some general good news for the economy. Large US banks say consumer finances are healthy despite tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/large-us-banks-consumer-finances-155807642.html
Speaking of mortgage rates (US).... Mortgage Type Rate Change 30 Year Fixed Mortgage 6.83% +0.01 15 Year Fixed Mortgage 6.03% +0.00 30 Year Jumbo Mortgage 6.90% +0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM Mortgage 6.27% -0.05 30 Year FHA Mortgage 6.37% +0.02 30 Year VA Mortgage 6.39% +0.02 Rates last updated on 7/14/25.
US Treasury Rates The US treasury yield curve rates are updated at the end of each trading day. All data is sourced from the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data provided by the Treasury.gov website. Treasury Current Yield Change Previous Yield 1 Month Treasury 4.37% 0.00 4.37% 1.5 Monthnth Treasury 4.41% 0.02 4.39% 2 Month Treasury 4.46% -0.01 4.47% 3 Month Treasury 4.42% 0.01 4.41% 4 Month Treasury 4.42% 0.00 4.42% 6 Month Treasury 4.31% 0.00 4.31% 1 Year Treasury 4.08% -0.01 4.09% 2 Year Treasury 3.90% 0.00 3.90% 3 Year Treasury 3.86% 0.00 3.86% 5 Year Treasury 3.98% -0.01 3.99% 7 Year Treasury 4.19% 0.00 4.19% 10 Year Treasury 4.43% 0.00 4.43% 20 Year Treasury 4.97% 0.01 4.96% 30 Year Treasury 4.97% 0.01 4.96% Treasury rates updated on 2025-07-14 with data sourced from Treasury.gov.
And for our thread record regarding inflation. United States Inflation Rate 2.67% As of the end of June 2025
I had a nice large gain today....thank you NVDA. I also beat the SP500 by.....1.89%. A big beat for one day. I see that the SP500 wimped out today and went red by the close.
Here is the market at the close today. Dow drops 400 points on earnings, inflation woes; Nvidia lifts Nasdaq to record close https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Sounds like it works differently over here. We typically take out 25 or 30 year mortgages, but the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of years, usually 2 or 5. Then once your fixed term is up, you can shop around for a new deal. I took out my first mortgage almost 5 years ago. It was a 25 year term with a 5 year fixed interest rate of 2%. That is about to come to an end and the best current deals are around 4%. So, I am tempted to take a 2 year fixed this time and hope we see further drops in rates over the next couple of years.
Here in Portugal is more less similar to what Lori explained. Typical mortgages go as long as 45 years, depending on your age. Limit is your credit must be paid before you have 70 yo. Standard interest rates are Euribor 6m or 12m + 1,5% spread. There are some promotial campaigns with fixed rates for first year of contract; following periods aplies the formula E6/12+spread with contract beeing reviewed every 6/12 months. What can be negociated? Spread. If you buy a few bank products (buy insurances, aply your savings in funds, domiciliate your monthly payment etc) you'll get a better spread.
Wow 2% is free money! I would take that any day! The common terms in the states is 15 year and 30 year with either a fixed or variable rate. If the rates drop you have the option to refinance so that's a good thing. My wife and myself have excellent credit and at the time got a best rate of 6.5% which is high for the last decade but as WXYZ mentioned is historically pretty good. Doing a 15 year has a slightly lower interest rate but obviously a higher payment. What I decided to do was put a large down payment and take out a 30 year and pay additional payments to pay it off in 15. I play with the mortgage calculators from time to time deciding how I want to apply more money to it. I like my money in the market making money but I feel having a payed off house would free up some monthly cash flow and some added financial security. I'll probably pay a chunk this year to bring it down to half the loan amount and then just continue with the additional payments.
Thanks LORI and RG. Yes....very different from here. It is interesting to hear about other countries and how things work there.
I am IGNORING the news of the day. Bring the Noise https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/07/15/bring-the-noise/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "There are three types of investors: momentum, valuation and noise. Momentum investors care about price movements, valuation investors care about fundamentals and noise investors care about a random assortment of stuff. Many of us are noise investors, even though we won’t realise it. Of course, investment approaches do not all neatly fit into such discrete categories. Most are a combination of momentum and valuation, and every investor lets some noise into their world. The critical question is – how much is market noise impacting our behaviour? The more influential noise is, the more inconsistent and unpredictable our decisions will be. When observing the choices made by a noisy investor it will be difficult to discern any recognisable pattern. This is not a path to good investment outcomes. Why is noise such an overwhelming issue for most investors? There are two factors at play. First is the sheer amount of ‘information’ available to us, which means that we face a constant struggle to understand what is important and what is immaterial. Second is our reaction to this torrent of stimulus. If we don’t define what is consequential, we will act like everything is. Is that GDP print important? What about that conflict in the Middle East? What about that technological change? Noisy information leads to noisy behaviour. The key differentiator between a noise-influenced investor and a momentum or valuation-led investor is that the latter group will have a far more clearly defined idea of what information matters and how they are likely to react to it. That doesn’t mean that valuation and momentum approaches are inherently good, it is just that they are less noisy. An investor with a process that involves buying the best performing mutual funds of the past three years is momentum-focused but not noisy. It is still a very bad idea, just not one beholden to market noise. Noise-driven investment behaviour is incredibly destructive, but it is almost certainly how most of us act. Why is it so hard for investors to avoid being captured by noise? 1) We are surrounded by it: It is close to impossible to switch off from the slew of financial market news and information. It is all-encompassing and overwhelming. 2) It is heavily incentivised: While noise may be bad for us it is fantastically lucrative for many in the industry – noise means clicks, trading, turnover, spreads and commissions. 3) Everything feels important in the moment: We tend to judge the importance of something by how available or prominent it is. Even if an issue has no real relevance for our objectives or over our time horizon, it will feel very much like it does. 4) Other people think it is important: It is incredibly hard to ignore subjects that everyone else is treating with the utmost significance. We will either look naïve or negligent, perhaps both. 5) Noise is exciting: Financial market noise is fascinating and, at times, exciting – engaging with it is stimulating and enjoyable. The trick is to be interested in it, without letting impact our investment decision making. It is vital to acknowledge that our default state is to succumb to the allure of financial market noise. Once we have done this, is there anything we can do about it? The starting point is to define the things that we care about. What matters most given our investment approach and objectives? Anything that is not in this list we can categorise as unhelpful noise. (There is no objective list of what constitutes ‘noise’. One investor’s noise will be another’s essential information – it depends on what we believe and what we are trying to achieve). We also need to take an active approach to blocking out market noise. All investors should be thinking carefully about how we can disregard things that are not likely to be influential, even when we know that at times they will feel crucial. Being complacent about the amount of superfluous noise in financial markets is not a viable option, if we don’t find a way to guard against it, it will quickly come to define our investment approach." MY COMMENT NOISE......is constant now with the 24/7 media thirst for clicks. To get the best returns you have to be able to IGNORE IT. I am lucky. I have NEVER in my life been a peer-pressure person.....as a kid....as a teen...throughout my life. Even if I was not an investor.....I would not be a peer-pressure person. It is just not my personality. I am also a hard core business thinker and very entrepreneurial. I was born that way and have been that way my whole life...including as a little kid. I am also a very CLINICAL person....just my personality. BUT.....I still like to have fun and have a good ability to see all the foolish stuff and crazy funny human behavior all around me. So I consider myself LUCKY....much of my inherent personality and in-born behavior....works to help me to be a good investor. The MAIN THING for any investor.......KNOW YOURSELF. There used to be a "suitability".....(term of art).....rule in the investment world......KNOW YOUR CLIENT......well now with most people doing at least some of their own investing it is....KNOW YOURSELF.
TireSmoke raises a good issue above.....taking some of your investing money and using it to pay off a house or for some other use. I have done this many times in my life and fully think this is a....good thing. We have had a paid off house since at least the late 1980's. Of course we had to use a big chunk of money to do so. BUT...the freedom this gave us is AMAZING. I consider it one of the best things we ever did. Of course being a business owner with big overhead and financing my business with personal assets....having a paid off house was a god-send for us to not have to worry about a big house payment on top of all the costs of running a business. It was a MASSIVE help with cash-flow needs as a business owner. We have also at time pulled money out of the brokerage account to buy a new car or for some other big expense. I dont like debt and at times it is just the RIGHT THING to use some of that investment money. After all....that is what it is for......to use in life to enhance your family and security. AND....once in a while there is nothing wrong with rewarding yourself. I have the discipline to not pull money out often....but in the right situation....like a new car....we do so and never look back. I prefer to stay....no debt.
INFLATION....what inflation. No....tariffs dont create inflation. Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/ppi-inflation-report-june-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The producer price index, a measure of wholesale costs, showed no change in June, against the forecast for a 0.2% increase. The same was true for the core PPI. Though the numbers for headline and core wholesale inflation were subdued, final demand goods prices rose 0.3%, but were offset by a 0.1% fall in services. Combined with Tuesday’s consumer price index release, the data suggests that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy. A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in June, providing a conflicting sign over whether tariffs threaten to boost inflation in the coming months. The producer price index was flat, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%. The same was true for core PPI, which also was expected to show a 0.2% rise. Combined with Tuesday’s consumer price index release, the data suggests that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy and the prices for goods and services. Though the numbers for headline and core wholesale inflation were subdued, final demand goods prices rose 0.3%, but were offset by a 0.1% fall in services. Within the goods category, tariff-sensitive communication equipment posted a gain of 0.8%. Core goods prices also rose 0.3%. At the same time, the PPI level for May, initially reported as a 0.1% increase, saw an upward revision to a 0.3% gain. A 0.3% gain for goods is the biggest gain since February, the BLS reported. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI was up 2.3%, compared with 2.7% in May and good for the lowest level since September 2024. The core PPI was at 2.6% on an annual basis, the smallest gain since July 2024. Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields fell. The BLS on Tuesday reported that the consumer price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, showed a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual inflation rate of 2.7%. Core inflation was at 2.9% annually. All of the BLS measures for annual inflation are above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, Trump on Tuesday repeated his demands that the Fed start lowering its benchmark interest rate as a way to help reduce borrowing costs for the U.S. However, markets are pricing virtually no chance of a cut when the Fed meets at the end of July, and have been reducing odds for a September move. Fed officials have said they remain cautious about the impact tariffs will have on inflation and believe the U.S. economy is in a strong enough position now that they can wait to see the impacts before acting on rates. According to the PPI release, energy prices rose 0.6% in June, while food prices increased 0.2%. Within the food category, chicken eggs tumbled 21.8%." MY COMMENT NO....producers are NOT seeing inflation. SO....they should not be passing......non-existent inflation on to consumers. of course....this will differ from business to business. YES.....there is NO inflation. At least at a level that is harmful to the economy. Right now we are at the very LOW end of the historic NORMAL inflation range for a good growing economy.
Of course....today....the markets simply dont care about the above good news....the big averages are ALL red.
Another take. US producer prices unchanged with wholesale inflation remaining under control https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-p...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD
The article above that I BOLDED says: "A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in June, providing a conflicting sign over whether tariffs threaten to boost inflation in the coming months." They just cant help but put in that......"conflicting sign"...language. There is NO conflicting sign or data that I see. There is NO conflict at all. After months of fear-mongering we are seeing virtually NO impact on inflation from tariffs.
The big banks earnings are kicking ass. Trading and dealmaking boosted Goldman profits as Wall Street overcame Trump tariff chaos https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trad...et-overcame-trump-tariff-chaos-112955970.html Morgan Stanley profit beats estimates as traders shine, but investment banking revenue falls https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-profit-rises-traders-113039200.html
I cant believe all the headlines that are out there today saying.....TARIFF CONCERNS and UNCERTAINTY GROWS. Brother......what a load of BS.
GOOD NEWS for PLTR. BUT....with the usual reservations. Palantir Stock Just Scored a Rare Upgrade Ahead of Earnings, Here’s Why https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-just-scored-rare-145536484.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, with the artificial intelligence (AI)-powered software stock soaring 97% year-to-date and leading both the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and Nasdaq-100 Index ($IUXX). The company's remarkable momentum is primarily driven by the widespread adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) across government and commercial sectors. www.barchart.com Thanks to the stock’s lights-out performance, valuation concerns have emerged as a persistent concern for PLTR. The stock trades at a forward adjusted price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 255.32 and a price-to-sales ratio of 90.0 - significantly exceeding industry norms. These elevated multiples indicate that extremely high growth expectations are already priced into Palantir shares, and the company has very little room for error going forward. Mizuho Upgrades PLTR Stock to ‘Neutral’ In a note today, Mizuho analysts led by Gregg Moskowitz acknowledged Palantir’s staggering valuation, even as they upgraded the AI stock to “Neutral” from “Underperform.” Mizuho is “stunned by the multiple that PLTR has attained, which places its valuation dramatically above anything else in software,” according to the analysts. As a result, today’s upgrade was accompanied by a relatively tepid price-target increase to $135 from $116, which represents a discount to Palantir’s Tuesday closing price of $148.58. Nevertheless, MIzuho is encouraged by Palantir’s “durable” public sector pipeline and its “growing commercial relevance,” with the analyst team arguing that PLTR “has a legitimate chance to accelerate revenue growth for a fifth consecutive quarter” in its fiscal Q2 earnings report, due out in August. Inside Palantir’s 2025 Performance Palantir demonstrated exceptional growth in Q1 2025, with revenue increasing 39% year-over-year to $884 million, highlighted by a dramatic 71% surge in U.S. commercial revenue to $255 million. The company's government segment remains robust, with U.S. government revenue growing 45% to $373 million, while total customer count has expanded 39% year-over-year to 769 clients. Strategic developments have further strengthened Palantir's market position, including the expansion of its Maven Smart System contract with the Pentagon to over $1.3 billion through 2029. The company has also formed significant partnerships, including a collaboration with Accenture (ACN) Federal Services to deliver AI solutions to federal agencies. Looking ahead, Palantir's Q2 earnings report, scheduled for Aug. 4, is expected to show continued strength. The consensus forecast from analysts calls for earnings per share of $0.08, representing a 167% increase from the previous year. Management has forecasted full-year revenue between $3.89-3.902 billion, indicating 36% growth. What Does Wall Street Say About PLTR Stock? Today’s Mizuho upgrade is a rare bullish note for PLTR. Wall Street maintains a cautious stance with a consensus "Hold" rating - although some analysts, like Wedbush's Dan Ives, see potential for the company to become “the next Oracle.” The key question facing investors is whether Palantir's execution and expanding AI opportunities can justify its premium valuation, or if the stock is vulnerable to a correction after its dramatic rise. While the company's long-term prospects appear promising, particularly given its strategic positioning in AI and government contracts, the current valuation levels suggest significant risks for investors." MY COMMENT Of course I own PLTR. Before you jump in.....do your fundamental research. PLEASE....read and believe....the last paragraph above
