The Long Term Investor

Perhaps you should have your wife join us on this board TireSmoke......36% in only 3 months....she is an investing GENIUS.

NOW...we know who is the real brains behind the big numbers you put up on here.

BUT....as one husband to another....dont show her this message.

 

I had another small gain today thanks to PLTR and NVDA. BUT....I got beat by the SP500 by 0.27%.

Good enough....I will take it and move on.

 

HERE is my earnings list:

GOOGL.........July 23
MSFT............July 30
AAPL............July 31
PLTR.............August 4
AMZN...........August 7
HD................August 19
WMT.............August 21
NVDA...........August 27
COST............September 25

 

AS USUAL:

SO....here is my current portfolio of....NINE....stocks.

The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio.

"I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

PORTFOLIO MODEL

"Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD.

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Microsoft
Nvidia
Palantir
WMT (junior position)

MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund

CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

MY COMMENT

This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."

 

I am NOT surprised......the economy is very healthy and there is of course.....NO impact from tariffs. Over the past 3-4 months we have been treated.....or I should say.....forced to endure....story after story about how the consumer is going to pull back. NO....wrong as usual.

Retail sales rise more than expected in June

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rise-more-than-expected-in-june-123540734.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Retail sales rebounded in June, an indication that President Trump's tariffs are not significantly impacting consumer spending habits yet.

Headline retail sales rose 0.6% in June, above economists' expectations for a 0.1% increase month on month. By comparison, sales decreased 0.9% in May, according to revised Census Bureau data.

The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, rose 0.5%. That compares with a 0.2% increase seen in May. Economists expected a 0.3% increase.

June sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.6%. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise. In May, sales excluding auto and gas were flat. A 1.8% increase in miscellaneous store retailers and a 1.2% gain in motor vehicle and parts dealer sales led the gains in June.

Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a research note that Thursday's release should "dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to tariffs."

Also out Thursday morning, data from the Department of Labor showed 221,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending July 12. After picking up in May, weekly filings for unemployment claims are now at their lowest level in three months.

The release comes as investors have held their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts steady despite data out earlier this week that showed signs of sticky inflation.

As of Thursday morning investors were pricing in a 54% chance the central ban cuts interest rates by its September meeting, down from a roughly 70% chance seen just last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

MY COMMENT

It will be the joke of the century if the FED does not cut in September. It will also be confirmation of the political BIAS of the FED and Powell and his refusal to support the American economy.

I find it very interesting that as usual.....this little article....is still subtly pushing the tariff narrative by sticking that little word....."YET".....at the end of the first sentence. There is absolutely NO evidence to support that....."yet". In fact the people they quote in the article dont say or support that qualifier.

Many in the media just can not let go of what they WISH had happened. They are just in turmoil and despair that the tariffs did NOT have much of any impact on inflation, retail sales, etc, etc. They are so ego centered and narcissistic that they cant even begin to see and realize their own....BIAS.

 

As to the above.....I dont care if a reporter or writer has BIAS. We all do. What I care about is their intentional pushing of their BIAS that is apparent in articles. AND.....reporting based on BIAS is now rampant and the norm in the media.

 

We all know this but it is nice to put it up on here.

Nvidia could recoup as much as $15 billion in revenue with H20 sales to China set to resume

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...0-sales-to-china-set-to-resume-100052288.html

 

MORE good news and in spite of the cherry picking and arguments to the contrary in this little article......we are seeing NOTHING like what the media fear-mongered us over tariffs. A good example of turning a positive economic report into a negative story.

US import prices rise marginally in June

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-import-prices-rise-marginally-132235627.html

"Import prices increased 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.4% decline in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, would rise 0.3% after a previously reported unchanged reading in May."

MY COMMENT

The above is about all that is important to know. Import prices were flat to DOWN in June. In fact May prices sere revised.....DOWN. AND.....the expected 0.3% increase was nowhere in sight. This is MORE GOOD NEWS. It is more good news that there is basically NO impact from tariffs. This should be very good news for the markets and investors.

A classic little attempt to make a flat to steady result appear as a bad thing. Note the headline with the word....."rise"....and even in the quote above the opening that....."import prices increased...".

Yes...I am extremely sensitive to language....but the use of language and words in these sorts of articles is INTENTIONAL.

 

These people are DELUSIONAL.....at best. At worst they are trying to sabotage the economy and create fear.

Fed's Kugler: No rate cut for some time as tariffs pass through to prices

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-kugler-no-rate-cut-131739379.html

 

YES....more positive news for the USA economy.

US weekly jobless claims fall; job growth appears steady in July

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-125047164.html

 

On top of the GREAT economic data this week and today.....we have this very positive story for owners of AI and tech related stocks.

TSMC posts record quarterly profit on AI demand, but wary about tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-quarterly-profit-seen-hitting-220157812.html

 

Here is what I would consider a neutral take on the above.....and a more accurate take.

Chip Maker TSMC Boosts Outlook for Revenue Amid Strong AI Demand

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-supplier-tmsc-boosts-outlook-111044218.html


"KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Thursday boosted its full-year revenue growth projections, as strong AI demand continued to fuel results at the world’s largest contract chipmaker.
• CEO C.C. Wei said he saw full-year sales growth of around 30% in U.S. dollar terms, up from around mid-20% levels previously.
• TSMC's second-quarter earnings per share and revenue came in higher than estimates."

MY COMMENT

I note the ABSENCE of the...."wary about tariffs"....language in this......"just the facts ma'am".....article.

We are BOMBARDED with with very subtle negative content all day long every day. It is embedded everywhere in the media. It is constant and relentless. It is a danger to the psychology of investors. It is drip, drip, drip. It creates very subtle and subliminal DOUBT.

Fortunately most retail investors are not reading much on a day to day basis so they are not exposed. A good reason to.....IGNORE IT ALL......and simply focus on the BIG PICTURE over the long term.

 

I have had my head down reading and posting for the past 45 minutes of the markets. I heard from the Business TV....VARNEY....that all the big averages were green. Now I see that they....in fact.... are.

I am starting the day....presumably....in the green. But....I have not looked yet.

 

Good news for home buyers. I looked at the listings for my little area of 4200 homes yesterday. I see that the market has now improved. I am seeing lots of pending homes in my area...even in the higher price levels. A month ago there were very few. In my own very small little neighborhood....a house is now pending at $1.8MILLION. Right on point for where it should be.

Homebuilders are slashing prices at the highest rate in 3 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/17/homebuilders-slash-prices-at-the-highest-rate-in-3-years.html

 

WELL....with the economic data today being nicely positive for the economy and investors....we are capping off a good week. The CPI and PPI were good and all the other data I have seen was also good. The economy is healthy and growing. The FED.....continues to try to be a thorn in the side of investors....but in reality no one cares about the FED anymore.

Considering that it is summer.....we have been having a good market. Gains have been mild but steady and they are adding up day by day. Many investors...myself included...are at new all time highs.

if you project out over the next six months to year end......it is a very positive market environment.

NOW....it is up to EARNINGS. I have little doubt that earnings will be very good. The expectations are low and we are off to a good start so far. The BULL MARKET is alive and well and appears to have at least another 2-3 years to run.

AND......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

HERE is the market today.

Stocks rise after latest raft of economic data and earnings

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose on Thursday, buoyed by fresh economic data reports along with a slew of corporate earnings releases.

The S&P 500 added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 71 points, or 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
advanced 0.4%.

PepsiCo shares jumped more than 5% on the back of better-than-expected earnings. United Airlines
gained 6% after the airline beat earnings estimates.

Quarterly earnings reports released this week have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, fueling investor confidence. Around 50 S&P 500 components have reported thus far, with 88% of those exceeding analysts’ expectations, FactSet data shows.

Key data releases on Thursday reflected strength in the U.S. economy. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims for the week ending July 12 came out at 221,000, marking a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week.

Separately, retail sales in June rose more than expected, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail sales were up 0.6% from May, beating the 0.2% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.

Wall Street is coming off a volatile trading session after President Donald Trump denied that he was planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from his position as Fed chief.

Stocks ended the day higher, but dropped sharply at one point Wednesday after a White House official said that Trump “likely will soon” fire Powell from his post, with the blue-chip Dow dropping more than 260 points at its session low. However, equities rebounded after Trump later downplayed the reports and said he was “not planning on doing it,” although he added that he does not “rule out anything.”

This week, the S&P 500 is trading higher by 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow is up 0.2%, while the Nasdaq has jumped 0.9%.

MY COMMENT

WOW.....88% of earnings so far EXCEEDING expectations. That is an EPIC number even for early earnings.

The above is basically a....."perfect storm"..... of positivity for the markets. Actual data and information....that investors should be CHEERING.

 

In fact regarding the above....I think the markets are UNDER-PERFORMING.....what the economy and conditions are showing us.

The old wall of worry is still in place and that is a good thing. Right now with what we are seeing we still have.....HUGE....upside potential in the markets for long oriented investors. AMAZING.

 

A good problem to have...being one of too many upper middle class people. I hope everyone on this thread ends up having that problem. I like to say to my wife....we are........LOWER upper class people.

The Death of the Amex Lounge: Why the Upper Middle Class Isn’t Special Anymore

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-death-of-the-amex-lounge/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"There’s something happening to the upper middle class in the United States that no one is talking about. They are going through an existential crisis.

I first noticed it at the airport. A line 20 people deep for the American Express lounge. Then, once you get inside, more lines for food/drinks and not an open chair in sight.

Then I saw it in the housing market. I have friends with $10,000+ monthly mortgage payments on modest homes. Ten grand a month and they still don’t own a mansion. Today, buying a 3-bedroom apartment in Jersey City (where I live) would cost me anywhere from $9,300-$14,000 a month (all-in). I could rent the same unit for around $6,000-$7,000 a month.

Lastly, I saw it when I went on vacation to the Bahamas. I was told that Baha Mar was the place to go. It’s an expensive resort that has a waterpark, casino, and lots of dining options. The only problem? There isn’t enough space for everyone to enjoy everything. If you don’t book ahead, good luck getting a reservation at one of their prized restaurants. If you don’t wake up early, forget about getting chairs by the pool.

Picture it. You’re at one of the nicest resorts in one of the most prized vacation destinations in the world and there are literal millionaires scrambling to get pool chairs at 8AM. What the hell is going on?

I’ll tell you. The upper middle class is getting too big. There are too many people who are millionaires and multi-millionaires and there simply isn’t enough space to accommodate them. Why do you think the Amex lounge is a zoo? Why do you think house prices haven’t come down? Why do you think vacations evolved into cut throat competitions?

Because there are too many people with lots of money. I didn’t believe it at first, but it’s true. After running the numbers while doing research for my upcoming book, The Wealth Ladder, it was undeniable. What follows is just a preview of the deeper research and strategies I explore in the book.

To start, let’s consider the inflation-adjusted median net worth among U.S. households from 1989 to 2022 via the Survey of Consumer Finances (“SCF”):




As you can see, median net worth peaked in 2007, declined in the years following the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”), and then bounced back during the early 2020s. If you were to examine the 25th percentile or the 75th percentile net worth, you’d see roughly the same thing. There was a peak in 2007, a crash in the 2010s, and finally a recovery in the 2020s.

But that’s not what you see if you looked at the top 10% of U.S. households by net worth (i.e. the 90th percentile). They experienced a far shallower decline following the GFC and started recovering in the mid-2010s:




By 2022 the top 10% were richer than ever.

Since 2007, the median net worth of U.S. households has increased from $173,151 to $192,700, up 11% in total after inflation. But among the top 10% of U.S. households, it increased from $1,302,640 to $1,936,900, a 49% surge!

While the SCF data doesn’t follow the same set of households over time, we can see in the data that there are more people with more wealth than ever before. To better understand this trend, I created a simple framework in The Wealth Ladder, my upcoming book (out July 22), that breaks wealth into six levels based on net worth. The levels are:

• Level 1: <$10k
• Level 2: $10k-$100k
• Level 3: $100k-$1M
• Level 4: $1M-$10M
• Level 5: $10M-$100M
• Level 6: $100M+

Using this framework, we can plot the percentage of households in each wealth level over time (ignoring Levels 5-6 which are sparsely populated in the SCF data):




As you can see, since 1989 the percentage of households in Level 1 (<$10k) has declined while the percentage of households in Level 4 ($1M-$10M) has increased significantly. In 1989, just 7% of households were in Level 4 (or above), but today it’s 18%.

Putting this into perspective, there are over 23 million millionaire households in the United States. You could fill the biggest stadium in the U.S. (Michigan Stadium which holds over 100,000 people) over 200 times and still have millions of millionaires left over.

This is what’s driving the tense competition for scarce resources among the upper middle class. Too many people got too rich and it’s impacting the housing market, vacation hotspots, and airport lounges alike.

As a result, they are going through somewhat of an existential crisis. People that have worked incredibly hard to get ahead are discovering that the lifestyle may not be what they had hoped. I know how out of touch this might sound while there are people out there living paycheck-to-paycheck. However, individuals in Level 3 ($100k-$1M) and Level 4 ($1M-$10M) experience many of the same stresses as people lower on The Wealth Ladder even though they have achieved some financial success.

How do I know? Because I’m one of them. I didn’t grow up with money, but I have some now. Despite this, my lifestyle isn’t all that lavish. While I don’t have to worry about what my groceries cost and can eat at nice restaurants on occasion, I still fly coach wherever I go. I still rent my apartment, commute to work, and deal with health issues like anyone else.

Yes, money can bring peace of mind, security, and many other great things, but it doesn’t buy as much as you think.

Unfortunately, the upper middle class are learning this the hard way. They are finding out that the exclusive wealth they thought they had isn’t so exclusive after all. What was once a marker of distinction has become a victim of popularity.

The Amex lounge didn’t die from a lack of interest. It died from too much."

MY COMMENT

BUMMER. Welcome to the world of the....lower upper class. Or you might call us......Low class rich people.

 

It is amazing how much things have changed.....as noted above.

When we started to see exponential growth in our net worth.....at the time that I bought $80,000 of MSFT in 1990......you could live a HUGE lifestyle with a million or two.

We bought a 5500 sqft house in an exclusive professional athlete and CEO neighborhood for $700,000....cash....which at that time was considered a mansion. Probably one of the nicest homes in the neighborhood. We owned four Range Rovers and a Defender over about ten years. We did not spend money needlessly and still flew coach....but we really had few limits. The only limits we had were self-imposed....since we were pushing toward being able to retire early.

At the time we lived there our neighbors included two pro baseball players......three pro football players including a first round pick.....the President of MSFT and many other corporate, big company, CEO's.....in an exclusive neighborhood of about 50 custom homes.

We gave our kids a really good.....and unique..... experience growing up and at the same time were able to instill in them a super work ethic and good values.

Now here we are today......lower upper class.

In fact most of the homes that we owned over our lifetime are now over a million....some way over a million. That home in the exclusive neighborhood is now over $3MILLION. Our net worth is higher than ever.....but what we can do with that money is probably more limited.

I am amazed at the EXPLOSION of money and net worth.....especially in younger and younger people over the past 10-15 years. Or perhaps I am just seeing the trappings of wealth.....but....a lot of debt also. It is hard to say.

BUT....we have lived on both sides of the tracks....from food stamps to the very highest levels.......and I dont think we could live as we did in the 1990's with our current net worth.

At least....we are lucky.....we lived long enough at a lower level that we have no desire to live the life of the rich and famous.

AND....we made the choice to retire early at age 49 and live off our personal assets for the next 21 years till our current income streams kicked in.....so we ate up a lot of assets.

I would not change a thing. We have lived an AMAZING life.

When I think back we were always able to live at a much higher level than our income would indicate. It was due to our ability to manage and manipulate money and cash flow as investors and business owners.....plus....great investing results and a big but variable income as owners of a business. Basically HARD WORK on top of getting an education. We were long term planers and thinkers.....and it is STILL paying off.