The week that was. DOW year to date +4.60% DOW five days (-0.01%) SP500 year to date +7.30% SP500 five days +0.67% NASDAQ 100 year to date +10.00% NASDAQ 100 five days +1.31% NASDAQ year to date +8.38% NASDAQ five days +1.47% RUSSELL year to date +0.37% RUSSELL five days +0.37% As for me another GREAT week. My entire portfolio sits at year to date.....+14.36%. Last week at this time my entire portfolio was at a year to date of 12.01%. A nice gain for me in a single week.
You know, we just seem to never learn. To think it might have taken this long to realize the bad possibilities…. MSFT announces they are no longer relying on China engineers for cloud support at the Pentagon. The company implemented the changes in an effort to reduce national security and cybersecurity risks stemming from its cloud work with a major customer. The announcement came days after ProPublica published an extensive report describing the Defense Department’s dependence on Microsoft software engineers in China.
Well, our market week has ended. I ended the day and week on the plus side of things. I”m sure many others did well this week. Slowly, but surely we are moving along quite well despite all of the distracting stuff being tossed about. Fine by me. Let’s just keep on chugging along.
OK......a big lesson for long term investors. Dont get too caught up in the short term.....it can drive you crazy and cause you to do DUMB stuff......like PANIC. Here is a real example....I noted in this thread on April 18, 2025....that my entire account had a loss of......(-13.79%). Pretty dismal stuff.....but it was all short term....a correction with the tariff drama added on top. Fast forward exactly....THREE MONTHS......and my entire account is at.....+14.36%. This is a HUGE.....turn-around...in only THREE months. Talk about the erratic short term. In addition for those that are long term and have confidence in the USA and our free market capitalism......If "I" had the money I could have bought my entire portfolio on April 18......and 3 months later I would have made a HUGE GAIN. At the time and in hindsight...it was very obvious that the market drop in mid April was CRAZY.....at least to me. It was earnings time and great earnings were being IGNORED and DISRESPECTED. Just a little example to think about next time you start to feel a bit of panic when you see your account going negative over some short term event.
An EPIC start to earnings.....this 83% number is HUGE. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_071825.pdf Key Data • Earnings Results: With 12% of SP500 companies reporting.......83%...... had a positive EPS surprise and......83%......had a positive revenue surprise. • Year over year earnings growth rate.....5.6%. The lowest earnings growth since Q4 2023 (4.0%). • Guidance: 3 S&P 500 companies issued negative EPS, and 4 issued positive EPS guidance. • Valuation: Forward 12-month P/E sits at 22.2. The 5-year average is 19.9, the 10-year average is 18.4.
Yes we are Just noticed that it's been 5 years (to the day) that I signed up to these boards. Think I opened my investing account a year before that. So, with 6 years under my belt - am I officially a Long Term Investor? Just looked at my account and my total rate of return is showing as 129%. I'm happy with that! All credit goes to this thread, of course. I honestly don't think I would have stuck it out if it wasn't for what I was regularly reading on here. All the day-to-day 'advice' I hear from the financial media over here is so contrary to the long term approach. I'm good at just ignoring that all now. Thanks, guys. Here's to next the next five years!
WAY TO GO LORI. Over six years.....129% is epic. You are beating the long term average of the SP500....something not many investors can do over the long term YEP.....you are now one of us since SIX YEARS is definately long term. What you have gone through in that six years is about equal to being in the markets for 30 years in terms of crazy events and markets......you have gone through the pandemic market.....a number of nasty corrections.....one pretty nasty BEAR MARKET for at least 1.5 years.....etc, etc. AND in spite of it all.....by holding in there....you now have a really good gain in your money. You are a true success story and example for others that are reading this thread and considering starting to invest. Over the past ten years we have seen a much more receptive media here in the USA toward LONG TERM INVESTING. Sounds like the media in your country is like it used to be here.....always deriding long term investors as buy and hold IDIOTS. Although the media here in the USA....still....intentionally or unintentionally..... pushes TRADING. I would bet that in England.....LORI.....your return of 129% over the past six years....puts you in the top echelon of investors. I am also sure that among REGULAR people that you know on a day to day basis.....you are beating most of them. I am sure most people you know would be shocked and confused at your 129% return in just six years. Now that you know the TRUTH.....it is simply a game of doing the same thing that works for you over and over and over....for as long as it works. AND....now that you know the TRUTH....it is a game of picking RATIONAL and REALISTIC stocks and funds that are market leading, big cap, growth, ICONIC companies......and RIDING THE WAVE.
Regarding the above.....my kids have been doing the same thing....riding the long term wave for the last 10 years or so. They are in their early 40's like LORI. They just had their TEN year anniversary as a married couple. When they started ten years ago they had very little in the markets. I hounded them relentlessly to get going with $300 a month each in the SP500 Index fund. They were also lucky enough to be able to sell a couple of houses....over the last ten years..... and put about $125,000 away in their brokerage accounts.....thanks to my sister funding their mortgage and only needing them to do a 10-15% down payment on their current house. In one kids account I added 27 shares of NVDA this morning at the open. The timing was lucky....since NVDA had a small loss at the open and now is in the green. BUT....you know me....I did not care about the timing.....I just wanted to get that money into the markets ASAP. In the same account my kids automatic monthly investment of.....$500 per month....will hit their SP500 Index Fund today at the close. This kid and their spouse are now just above $800,000 in their two brokerage accounts......in spite of pulling about $100,000 out of the two accounts to buy two new cars last year for CASH....no debt. I started both of them in my nine stocks just two years ago......when I felt that they had enough in the SP500 Index Fund to put HALF of their account into individual stocks. I also started to very closely focus on their two accounts about two years ago......and really manage what they were doing. My focus and attention on those accounts has paid off BIG TIME. The stock side of their acccounts has EXPLODED over that two years. They had the bad luck to have two older cars that both had to be replaced in the same year. BUT....now they are set with two new cars that should last them for the next 10 years.
Looks like you guys.....LORI, RG, and other out of the USA posters on here.....have some company. No Sign of Investors Fleeing "US Exceptionalism" https://www.bespokepremium.com/inte...o-sign-of-investors-fleeing-us-exceptionalism "After the close yesterday, the US Treasury reported the largest inflow of foreign capital to that market (net purchases) since 2022, obliterating the narrative that foreign investors are fleeing Treasuries (or US assets generally) due to concerns over political risk or as a response to tariffs. Adding to that news was a large inflow to US stocks, similar in magnitude to the ones we saw last fall. While there was panic about the end of the "US exceptionalism" trade back in April, for now, there’s no sign in the data that foreign investors are fleeing." MY COMMENT TYPICAL......the disconnect between REALITY and the media narrative.
Here is another view of the future. S&P 500 Signals the US Stock Rally Momentum Is Waning https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-50...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD MY COMMENT Not that I care or will do anything different as a long term....fully invested all the time investor. And not that I believe the above....but I post this for anyone on here that might want to see this information.
I will get my first earnings report this week....GOOGL. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq inch higher to start busy week of Big Tech-dominated earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...of-big-tech-dominated-earnings-235753747.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks rose on Monday, with fresh records for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) in sight as Wall Street began a busy week of Big Tech-highlighted earnings and eyed the continued risks around President Trump's tariffs. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained about 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, following last week’s record-setting rally in growth names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.4%. This week sees investor focus dominated by two topics: Clarity on US trade policy as the implementation of tariffs looms, and earnings from tech heavyweights as Wall Street eyes record-high market valuations On the trade front, the EU is said to be stepping up the scope of its retaliation if it fails to strike a trade pact with the US. The bloc is open to an unbalanced deal to break a talks deadlock before the Aug. 1 implementation of Trump's tariffs, per Bloomberg. But Trump's increasingly hardline stance and EU member opposition to concessions are denting hopes for an agreement. Over the weekend, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed the White House’s August deadline for new tariffs, calling it a "hard stop" for compliance — before saying that he's looking at continued conversation beyond that date. Meanwhile, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) second quarter sales beat estimates as new products drew buyers, helping offset the impact of tariff uncertainty. Reports from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) are among other highlights on Monday's docket. Earnings season shifts into high gear this week with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) set to release updates on Wednesday — the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report for the second quarter. Strong results could validate stretched valuations as the market's focus on AI growth is once again attracting comparisons to historic tech bubbles. Of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have already released results, 86% have outpaced Wall Street consensus estimates. That is a historically strong beat rate, albeit off modest expectations." MY COMMENT A very good star to the week so far today....all the big averages are in the green right now. Perhaps....for once....earnings might actually count this time around. That would be refreshing.
As to earnings counting and the markets. I believe we are in position for one of the BEST markets in a long time over the next SIX MONTHS to year end. Of course negative events or black swans can come out of the blue. BUT.....I dont see much negative for at least six months. EVERYTHING is lining up.....in very RARE fashion....for the markets right now. My view is that we will.....PROBABLY......yes I am giving this a slight "probability".....see a very active and dynamic market BOOM over the next six months. Of course I am NOT doing anything in response....i will simply sit and hold what I currently already have. I am NOT going to take any crazy risk in response to what I think may happen over the rest of the year. I am NOT a gambler. As usual....I put my feelings and thoughts on here....BUT PLEASE.....this is NOT, NOT, NOT.....a call to action for anyone, me included. I will simply continue to be invested as I already am....and hopefully enjoy a really good second half of the year. As we enter the GUTS of the current earnings....we will get more clarity on the above.
I dont pay so I cant read this article....but...I certainly agree with this headline. The U.S. Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-economy-is-regaining-its-swagger-922623e3?siteid=yhoof2
As far as I can tell as of today.....PLTR.....is either number 20 or number 21 in market cap in the SP500. That means either number 20 or 21....largest company in the USA by market cap. I also note that among my nine stocks......ALL NINE....are in the top 23 stocks in the SP500 by market cap. HD is currently my lowest one at number 23 by market cap in the SP500. I like the above....very much. It tells me that I am fully achieving.....and being successful......in my investment goal of being focused on the big cap growth side of the markets. I have five of my nine stocks in the TOP TEN of the SP500.
No wonder I am doing well recently. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs to start the week thanks to gains in tech https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Well I have not looked at my account yet today. BUT...I am absolutely positive that I have a gain so far today. How do I know....well....every one of my nine stocks is currently GREEN. WE BUILD FROM HERE.
A couple of very concerning stories.....one in general about AI.....and one specific to MSFT. Mother: ChatGPT Sent Autistic Son Down an AI Rabbit Hole of Delusion https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2025...istic-son-down-an-ai-rabbit-hole-of-delusion/ Massive Hack Targets Microsoft SharePoint Vulnerability https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2025/07/21/global-hack-targets-microsoft-sharepoint-vulnerability/ MY COMMENT The first story....originally from the Washington Post...is a HUGE warning to business and others that rely on AI. As we move further and further to relying on AI and NOT double checking what it tells us....or what it is doing....there is HUGE DANGER....that it will lead to very distorted results and real world DANGER. At this point based on various similar anecdotal stories that I have seen....I do NOT trust AI. The second story.....originally from the WSJ......is a big issue that might impact MSFT stock....short term. Looks like this.....bad...story was released about 13 hours ago.
I like this very current....evaluation of COST stock. Should Investors Buy, Hold or Sell Costco Stock After June Sales? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve..._ZpgayLm0O7keRbuvCY7W7301sfwsUkMALmerPsuyQrQh (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco Wholesale Corporation’s COST June sales results provide fresh insights into the retail giant’s performance. Known for its steady growth and leadership in the warehouse club space, Costco continues to attract long-term investors. However, the latest figures could influence the stock’s near-term trajectory. Here’s a closer look at the results to assess whether Costco stock is a buy, hold or sell after the June sales update. Decoding Costco’s June Sales Report Costco’s membership-driven model remains a core strength, with high renewal rates ensuring a dependable revenue stream. Its efficient supply chain and bulk purchasing power enable competitive pricing, reinforcing its strong market position. This combination of customer loyalty and operational efficiency continues to give Costco an advantage in a competitive retail landscape. For the five weeks ended July 6, 2025, Costco reported a 5.8% year-over-year increase in total company comparable sales. Regionally, comparable sales rose 4.7% in the United States, 6.7% in Canada and 10.9% in Other International markets. E-commerce also remained a bright spot, with comparable sales surging 11.5%. (Read: Costco's June Sales Climb on Robust 11.5% E-Commerce Growth) As a result, Costco's net sales for June increased 8% to $26.44 billion, up from $24.48 billion in the same period last year. This follows a sales improvement of 6.8% and 7% reported in May and April, respectively, reflecting a strong and consistent sales performance over the past few months. Membership Model Fuels Consistent Revenue Growth Costco continues to deliver strong revenue growth, showing its ability to adapt steadily to changing economic conditions. The increase in membership fee income, driven by a high renewal rate of 92.7% in key markets like the United States and Canada, emphasizes the company’s effective customer retention strategies and high member engagement. With a large base of paid household members and an increasing share of executive memberships, Costco maintains stable membership fee income. As of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the retailer reported 79.6 million paid household members, a 6.8% increase year over year. Executive memberships — Costco’s more profitable tier — grew 9% to 37.6 million, now accounting for 47.3% of total paid members and making up 73.1% of global sales. By steadily enhancing its e-commerce capabilities and investing in fulfillment infrastructure, Costco is creating a more integrated omnichannel shopping experience. Its e-commerce comparable sales rose 14.8% in the third quarter. Notably, Costco Logistics deliveries surged 31%, driven by increasing volumes of large and bulky items. The launch of a Buy Now Pay Later program, in partnership with Affirm, has offered members greater purchasing flexibility, especially for higher-priced items. The company takes a measured approach to expanding its global warehouse footprint. During the third quarter, Costco opened nine warehouses — including seven in the United States, one in Japan, and a relocation in Australia — and plans to open 10 more in the final quarter, including its second warehouse in Sweden and 20th in Korea. For fiscal 2025, the company expects 27 total openings (24 net new), bringing its global warehouse count to 914. Meanwhile, Costco’s disciplined focus on cost control, product mix optimization and growing penetration of its private-label brand, Kirkland Signature, continues to support margin expansion. Kirkland Signature sales outpaced overall company growth in the third quarter, with penetration rising 50 basis points year over year. The company continues to shift more Kirkland Signature sourcing to the regions where items are sold, helping reduce costs and mitigate tariff impacts. How Consensus Estimates Stack Up for Costco Over the past 30 days, analysts have lowered their estimates for the current fiscal year by 9 cents to $17.97. For the next fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 3 cents to $19.93. These estimates suggest year-over-year growth rates of 11.6% and 10.9%, respectively. Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Does Costco’s Valuation Reflect Strength or Stretch? Costco stock has been a standout performer, with shares rallying 13.4% over the past year, outpacing the industry's growth of 6.1%. This impressive growth underscores investor confidence in Costco’s business model. Costco has even outperformed its peers, such as Dollar General Corporation DG, Ross Stores, Inc. ROST and Target Corporation TGT. Shares of Dollar General, Ross Stores and Target have declined 7.4%, 10.7%, and 33.4%, respectively, over the past year. Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research However, Costco is trading at a significant premium to its industry peers. The company's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 48.33, higher than the industry’s ratio of 31.85 and the S&P 500's ratio of 22.55. However, the stock is trading below its median P/E level of 50.76, observed over the past year. Costco is trading at a premium to Dollar General (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 18.63), Ross Stores (19.89) and Target (12.95). Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Now, the question arises whether Costco’s current price is warranted or overvalued in today’s market. The company’s high valuation shows that investors have strong faith in the company’s steady growth, loyal customer base, and solid business model. This premium may be deserved, given Costco’s consistent performance, but it also means the stock has less room for error. At this level, some of the future growth may already be priced in, making it harder to justify further upside. Should You Invest in Costco Now or Wait for a Pullback? Costco's June sales results reaffirm its position as a dependable stock in the retail sector, backed by strong membership growth, consistent comparable sales improvement and solid financial fundamentals. While the stock trades at a premium valuation, this appears justified given its operational resilience, expanding global footprint and loyal customer base. For long-term investors willing to pay up for quality and stability, Costco remains a compelling choice. However, for value-conscious buyers, the elevated valuation may warrant patience for a more attractive entry point. Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). " MY COMMENT I like what I have put in BOLD above.....especially the data for June and before. I also strongly believe in this company. BUT....for Gods sake....split the stock. I see this company as an ICONIC long term holding...for me. We have been shopping at COSTCO since about 1990.....at that time they had about 46 stores. We lived in REDMOND.....on the East side of Lake Washington from Seattle. As I observed the HUGE business they were doing I got on board with the stock. I bought my first COST stock about 1990. At that time they had been a public company for about 5 years. Between 1985 and 2000....they split their stock three times.....2 for 1 in 1991.....3 for 2 in 1992....and.....2 for 1 in 2000. AMAZINGLY....year 2000 was their last stock split......TWENTY FIVE.....years ago.
As a shareholder I have mixed emotions.....obviously a good move for the company at lower cost than here in the USA.....but definately going to impact jobs and employee count here in the USA as this escalates. US retail giant Costco to set up global capability centre in India, to employ 1000 people, sources say https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-giant-costco-set-180417937.html "The Global Capability Centre, handling technology and research operations and working alongside global teams, will initially employ 1,000 people and scale up, sources said. GCCs, which were once low-cost outsourcing hubs for global firms, have evolved over the last few years and are now used to support their parent organisations in multiple functions, including daily operations, finance, and research and development." MY COMMENT The near future of business. We are going to see these massive GCC's going up in India and other countries with much of the corporate daily operations, finance, and R&D being done from these centers. The hollowing out of USA jobs and work. I imagine in about 20-50 years the basic corporation will be mostly contract workers in this type of setting.....and a very small....number of actual USA based workers and management.
