The Long Term Investor

With NVDA, PLTR, and COST being in the red today at the close....I lost a good portion of my gain that I had earlier in the day. At least I did manage to end the day with a small gain in my stocks and no doubt in my entire account. I also got beat by the SP500 today by ....0.08%.

ANY money is good money....so i will take it to start the week.

 

It continues. This is actually getting to be....real money.

AstraZeneca announces $50 billion US manufacturing investment, matching its big pharma peers

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astr...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I

"AstraZeneca (AZN) said it is investing $50 billion in US manufacturing by 2030, following the lead of big pharma peers that have announced more than $200 billion combined in investments in the coming years.".......

"Some of the largest investment commitments to date have been Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) $55 billion announcement and Eli Lilly's (LLY) $50 billion one. With a previous $3.5 billion announced in November 2024, the new $50 billion commitment puts AstraZeneca in second."

MY COMMENT

Just the above totals.....$158.5BILLION in new investment in the....USA. What is the TOTAL of new investment committed to the USA in the last six months? I have no idea.

 

Well I see this:

Here is a non-comprehensive running list of NEW U.S.-based investments.....over the past six months:

• Project Stargate, l$500 billion private investment in U.S.-based artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• Apple 500 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing and training.
• NVIDIA, $500 billion in U.S.-based AI infrastructure over the next four years amid its pledge to manufacture AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S. for the first time.
• Micron Technology, $200 billion investment in its U.S.-based manufacturing and production of advanced memory chips — including construction of a second chip fabrication facility in Boise, Idaho, and modernizing its Manassas, Virginia, facility.
• IBM $150 billion investment over the next five years in its U.S.-based growth and manufacturing operations.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) $100 billion investment in U.S.-based chips manufacturing.
• Johnson & Johnson $55 billion investment over the next four years in manufacturing, research and development, and technology.
• Roche, $50 billion investment in U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development, which is expected to create more than 1,000 full-time jobs and more than 12,000 jobs including construction.
• Bristol Myers Squibb $40 billion investment over the next five years in its research, development, technology, and U.S.-based manufacturing operations.
• Eli Lilly and Company $27 billion investment to more than double its domestic manufacturing capacity.
• United Arab Emirates-based ADQ $25 billion investment in U.S. data centers and energy infrastructure.
• Novartis, $23 billion investment to build or expand ten manufacturing facilities across the U.S., which will create 4,000 new jobs.
• Hyundai $21 billion U.S.-based investment — including $5.8 billion for a new steel plant in Louisiana, which will create nearly 1,500 jobs.
• John Deere $20 billion over the next decade in American expansion, production, and manufacturing.
• United Arab Emirates-based DAMAC $20 billion investment in new U.S.-based data centers.
• France-based CMA CGM, $20 billion investment in U.S. shipping and logistics, creating 10,000 new jobs.
• Sanofi $20 billion over the next five years in manufacturing and research and development.
• Amazon $20 billion investment to expand its cloud computing infrastructure in Pennsylvania, creating at least 1,250 new high-skilled jobs.
• Venture Global LNG $18 billion investment at its liquefied natural gas facility in Louisiana.
• GlobalFoundaries $16 billion investment to boost its U.S.-based chip production, including expanding existing plants in New York and Vermont.
• Gilead Sciences $11 billion boost to its planned U.S.-based manufacturing investment.
• AbbVie $10 billion investment over the next ten years to support volume growth and add four new manufacturing plants to its network.
• Amazon $10 billion investment to build new data centers in North Carolina.
• Pratt Industries $5 billion investment to create 5,000 new manufacturing jobs in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
• GlobalWafers, $4 billion investment in its U.S.-based production.
• Thermo Fisher Scientific $2 billion over the next four years to enhance and expand its U.S. manufacturing operations and strengthen its innovation efforts.
• Merck & Co. $9 billion in the U.S. over the next several years after opening a new $1 billion North Carolina manufacturing facility — including in a new state-of-the-art biologics manufacturing plant in Delaware, which will create at least 500 new jobs.
• Clarios $6 billion plan to expand its domestic manufacturing operations.
• Stellantis $5 billion investment in its U.S. manufacturing network, including re-opening its Belvidere, Illinois, manufacturing plant.
  • Stellantis announced a $388 million investment to establish a “megahub” in Detroit, Michigan.
• Belgium-based drugmaker UCB $5 billion investment in a new U.S.-based factory.
• In addition to its overall investments, Amazon $4 billion in small towns across America, creating more than 100,000 new jobs and driving opportunities across the country.
• General Motors $4 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing as it shifts more vehicle production from Mexico to the U.S., including in Michigan, Kansas, and Tennessee.
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, $3 billion agreement with Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies to produce drugs at its North Carolina manufacturing facility.
• Kraft Heinz $3 billion investment to upgrade its U.S. factories — its largest investment in its plants in decades.
• NorthMark Strategies, $2.8 billion investment to build a supercomputing facility in South Carolina.
• Kimberly-Clark $2 billion investment to expand its U.S. manufacturing operations, including a new advanced manufacturing facility in Warren, Ohio, an expansion of its Beech Island, South Carolina, facility, and other upgrades to its supply chain network.
• Chobani, $1.7 billion to expand its U.S. operations.
  • $1.2 billion to build its third U.S. dairy processing plant in New York, which is expected to create more than 1,000 new full-time jobs.
  • $500 million to expand its Idaho manufacturing plant.
• Corning $1.5 billion, adding 400 new high-paying advanced manufacturing jobs for a total of 1,500 new jobs.
• Carrier $1 billion investment in its U.S. manufacturing, innovation, and workforce expansion, which is expected to create 4,000 new jobs.
• GE Aerospace $1 billion investment in manufacturing across 16 states — creating 5,000 new jobs.
• Anduril Industries $1 billion investment for a new autonomous weapon system facility in Ohio.
• Williams International $1 billion investment for a new high-volume aviation gas turbine engine manufacturing facility in Okaloosa County, Florida.
• Amgen $900 million investment in its Ohio-based manufacturing operation.
• Merck Animal Health $895 million investment to expand their manufacturing operations in Kansas.
• General Motors $888 million investment at its propulsion plant in Tonawanda, New York.
• Schneider Electric $700 million over the next four years in U.S. energy infrastructure.
• GE Vernova $600 million in U.S. manufacturing over the next two years, which will create more than 1,500 new jobs.
• Abbott Laboratories $500 million investment in its Illinois and Texas facilities.
• AIP Management, $500 million investment to solar developer Silicon Ranch.
• London-based Diageo $415 million investment in a new Alabama manufacturing facility.
• Lego $366 million investment to build a new distribution center in Prince George County, Virginia.
• The Bel Group $350 million investment to expand its U.S.-based production, including at its South Dakota, Idaho and Wisconsin facilities — which will create 250 new jobs.
• Dublin-based Eaton Corporation $340 million investment in a new South Carolina-based manufacturing facility for its three-phase transformers.
• Anheuser-Busch $300 million investment in its manufacturing facilities across the country.
• Germany-based Siemens $285 million investment in U.S. manufacturing and AI data centers, which will create more than 900 new skilled manufacturing jobs.
• Clasen Quality Chocolate $230 million investment to build a new production facility in Virginia, which will create 250 new jobs.
• Fiserv, Inc., $175 million investment to open a new strategic fintech hub in Kansas, which is expected to create 2,000 new high-paying jobs.
• Paris Baguette $160 million investment to construct a manufacturing plant in Texas.
• Siemens Healthineers $150 million investment to expand production, including relocating manufacturing operations for its Varian company from Mexico to California.
• JBS USA $135 million investment for a new sausage production facility in Perry, Iowa.
• TS Conductor $134 million investment to build an advanced conductor manufacturing facility in South Carolina, which will create nearly 500 new jobs.
• Switzerland-based ABB $120 million investment to expand production of its low-voltage electrification products in Tennessee and Mississippi.
• Saica Group, $110 million new manufacturing facility in Anderson, Indiana.
• Hotpack, $100 million investment to establish its first U.S. manufacturing facility in Edison, New Jersey.
• Charms, LLC, $97.7 million investment to expand its production plant and distribution center in Tennessee.
• Toyota Motor Corporation $88 million investment to boost hybrid vehicle production at its West Virginia factory, securing employment for the 2,000 workers at the factory.
• AeroVironment, $42.3 million investment to build a new manufacturing facility in Utah.
• Paris-based Saint-Gobain $40 million NorPro manufacturing facility in Wheatfield, New York.
• India-based Sygene International $36.5 million acquisition of a Baltimore biologics manufacturing facility.
• Asahi Group Holdings, $35 million investment to boost production at its Wisconsin plant.
• Valbruna Slater Stainless $28 million investment in its stainless steel and nickel alloys bars manufacturing plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
• Cyclic Materials,$20 million investment in its first U.S.-based commercial facility, located in Mesa, Arizona.
• Guardian Bikes $19 million investment to build the first U.S.-based large-scale bicycle frame manufacturing operation in Indiana.
• Amsterdam-based AMG Critical Minerals $15 million investment to build a chrome manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania.
• NOVONIX Limited, $4.6 million investment to build a synthetic graphite manufacturing facility in Tennessee.
• LGM Pharma $6 million investment to expand its manufacturing facility in Rosenberg, Texas.
• ViDARR, $2.69 million investment to open a new facility in Virginia.

These doesn’t include the U.S. investments pledged by foreign countries:

• United Arab Emirates $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over the next decade.
• Qatar $1.2 trillion in an economic exchange between the two countries.
• Japan $1 trillion investment in the U.S.
• Saudi Arabia $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years.
• Taiwan announced a pledge to boost its U.S.-based investment.

PLUS now AstraZeneca $50 billion.

MY COMMENT

No wonder I am extremely positive about the markets and the economy over the rest of the year and over the next 2-3 years.

This is over the past SIX MONTHS.

 

I expect that the above money.....is only the start and that we will end up with 2 or 3 times the amount above.....minimum.....over the next 2-3 years. It is going to be a lot of private sector money.....sloshing......around in the economy and multiplying and compounding as it passes through various types of workers and companies.

It will all end up being a very broad driver of GDP and the economy for the next 2-3 years.....or more.....especially with the tax bill being permanent.

I really like how stock investors are sitting right now in general....than if you add in the specific....AI and how it will sweep through EVERYTHING.....the next ten years look GOLDEN. It....."could"....emphasis on...."could"....be an epic ten year BULL MARKET. Although keep in mind that you can have corrections and even bear market time periods in a systemic BULL MARKET.

 

Good earnings update Smokie.

My short post above is my BIG PICTURE view of the next ten years. A long time span...that will no doubt include many types of markets and events over that span. BUT.....It has the potential to be a very exciting time for long term investors.

Keep in mind that......"exciting"....can go both ways....really good or nail-biting.....or anywhere in-between.

 

I have a Board Meeting today at noon....so I will be out of here about 10:30.

 

I like this little article.

All about ‘yield curves’ – and the big move for stocks they’re pointing to in 2025

https://nypost.com/2025/07/21/busin...g-move-for-stocks-theyre-pointing-to-in-2025/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"In my 50-plus years of running money, I’ve noticed that the biggest market moves come from factors that have gone unnoticed – and right now, there’s a doozy lurking under the table.

Amid all the tariff tumult of the past few months, the global yield curve has been quietly re-steepening. Also note that the previously long-watched US-based yield curve – which investors lately (and wrongly) have been ignoring – has been doing the same.

So what’s a yield curve, again? It’s a graph showing government bond yields from 3-month to 10-year, left to right. When long-term rates top short rates, the curve slopes upward — and is deemed “steep” and historically bullish. When short-term rates top long, it is “inverted”— an historically fairly reliable though imperfect recession warning.

Why is that? Like a dashboard indicator, the yield curve usually predicts bank lending trends. Banks use short-term deposits to fund long-term loans — pocketing the spread. Borrow at one rate, lend at a higher rate. Steep curves mean bigger profits, so banks lend eagerly, spurring growth.

For decades, the US yield curve rarely misfired, becoming a lodestar for investors. But like assuming a car’s dash is reality, they ignored its “under the hood” function — the lending. It worked until it didn’t.

After global stocks’ 2022 decline, yield curves inverted globally. Recession fears surged. Investors gnashed. Yet lending grew. US, eurozone and global GDP expanded. Pockets of contraction like Germany arose but were rare. Stocks bulled upward.

Investors were befuddled. The curve remained inverted in 2023 and through most of 2024, with stocks rising, GDP growing. Pundits scratched their heads, then got bored, ignoring and deeming it “broken.” It seems they never asked: Why did it “break”?

4
Amid all the tariff tumult of the past few months, the global yield curve has been quietly re-steepening.
Under the hood, banks held tons of ultra-low-rate, COVID-era deposits. In 2020, US bank deposits ballooned 20.8% from the year earlier and another 11.7% in 2021. They stayed elevated through 2022 and 2023, echoing global trends.

In other words: Banks didn’t need to borrow to lend. They needn’t compete for deposits by raising deposit rates. That stash of low-cost deposits kept lending profitable even as the Fed hiked to highs of 5.5% alongside other central banks globally.

Now, unseen, yield curves flipped positive, aiding global loan profits. This stems from short-term rate cuts (most heavily overseas – and rising long-term rates (which most wrongly fear, and which are also bullish).

Money flows globally between most nations, so I always monitor a GDP-weighted global yield curve. Last July, it was down 0.55 percentage points — inverted. A few months before that it was down nearly a full point. Now? It has flipped to positive 0.50 points — a quiet, nearly 1.5-point lending boost in slightly over a year. It is both bullish and explains recent trends.

America’s curve improved but remains basically flat – down 0.07 points. But Britain flipped from down 0.99 points a year ago to positive 0.35 points now. Continental Europe’s shifted more — from down 0.47 to up 1.03!

Stocks show it matters: Regionally the MSCI Europe clocked early new highs and sits up 22% year to date. The non-US trounces America this year.

Steeper curves favor value stocks (like the eurozone and UK’s) over growth stocks (which dominate the US). Eurozone and UK Financials—up 52% and 33%, respectively—quietly lead in 2025, trouncing US Tech’s 10%. Why? A bank profit turbocharge! Europe’s value-heavy Industrials lead, too. They need lending to finance growth.

4
America’s curve improved but remains basically flat – down 0.07 points.


That most observers still ignore the curve is vital. It means stocks haven’t yet fully priced in this growing, bullish power. Expect it to help drive stocks higher here and to continue doing the same throughout Europe, the UK and most emerging markets."

MY COMMENT

A positive factor...but not something I use one way or another as a long term investor. We are seeing a lot of different indicators and data that is market positive right now. In addition we are seeing massive "intended" investment in our USA economy by private business. Add in the....AI REVOLUTION.....which is just in the early stages.....and things are lining up nicely.

 

Not much of anything going on today....other than earnings. That is a good thing....we dont need all the drama. Here is the market today....so far.

S&P 500, Nasdaq retreat from records as chip stocks decline

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell on Tuesday, a day after both indexes hit fresh records, as traders weighed the latest earnings reports and new trade developments.

The broad market S&P 500 ticked lower by 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.5%. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2 points, or 0.01%.

The market was bogged down by a decline in chip stocks, with artificial intelligence darling Nvidia and Broadcom each around 3% lower, after The Wall Street Journal reported that SoftBank and OpenAI’s $500 billion AI project has faced difficulties in getting underway, scaling down its near-term plans. Adding to downbeat sentiment in the sector, NXP Semiconductors
pulled back more than 2% after the company’s latest quarterly results and guidance disappointed investors.

Meanwhile, shares of aerospace and defense name Lockheed Martin were down 6% after the company’s revenue for the second quarter missed analyst estimates. Similarly, Philip Morris lost 7% after the tobacco company’s second-quarter revenue also fell short.

This comes as 88 S&P 500 companies have reported, with more than 82% of those topping analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet data. Eyes are on commentary from companies about macroeconomic certainty, the impact of tariffs and details on demand and spending related to AI.

Google parent Alphabet and Tesla will report Wednesday, kicking off highly anticipated results from the “Magnificent Seven” companies. The megacap tech companies are expected to contribute to a significant amount of earnings growth this season.

Given the recent rally in stocks, investors are watching for how far the market can run, with some commenting that valuations already appear stretched. Cetera Investment Management chief investment officer Gene Goldman said that “much of the good news appears to be priced in, leaving little margin for error.”

“Markets may have rallied too far, too fast,” Goldman added. “After dipping after ‘liberation day’ to 4,982, the S&P bounced back sharply, in fact – the recovery has been the fastest in nearly 50 years even as 2025 earnings expectations were nearly halved.”

Traders also assessed the latest on the tariff front, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the U.S. will likely extend a deadline to reach a deal with China. Bessent also said he’s planning to meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week."

MY COMMENT

So far a nothing day. A good day for me to miss for my meeting at noon. The markets are probably just lingering and waiting for the GOOGL and TSLA earnings on Wednesday.

 

A nice LOSS for me today thanks to NVDA, PLTR, and others. I also got beat by the SP500 today by.....1.30%.

Moving on to earnings....tomorrow.

 

Perhaps this will move the markets tomorrow....as we await the earnings from GOOGL and TSLA after the bell.

Trump announces ‘massive’ trade deal with Japan, setting tariffs at 15%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/23/tru...e-deal-with-japan-with-15percent-tariffs.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Trump said that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States, adding that the U.S. will “receive 90% of the Profits.”
• He also said Japan will “open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.”
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that auto tariffs on Tokyo will be lowered to 15%, according to Reuters.
• Shortly after the deal announcement, Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said ”#Mission Accomplished,” in a post on X.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday stateside announced a “massive” deal with Japan that includes “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S., with auto duties reportedly being lowered to that level as well.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump labeled the agreement as “perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” while adding that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States and the U.S. would “receive 90% of the Profits.”

Trump said that Japan will “open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.”

The U.S. president added that the deal would create “Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that auto tariffs on Tokyo will be lowered to 15% — from the current 25% — levied across countries — Reuters reported. Auto exports to the U.S. are a cornerstone of Japan’s economy, making up 28.3% of all shipments in 2024, according to customs data.

Japanese exports of automobiles, which include cars, buses and trucks, to the U.S. fell 26.7% in June, extending May’s 24.7% plunge.

The country’s overall exports to the U.S. — its second largest trading partner — stood at 10.3 trillion yen ($70.34 billion) between January to June, a 0.8% year-on-year drop.

Shortly after the announcement, Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said ”#Mission Accomplished,” in a post on X, and expressed “heartfelt thanks to everyone involved,” according to a google translation of his remarks in Japanese.

Trump in a speech that followed his Truth Social post said that Japan and the U.S. were also concluding an additional deal involving liquified natural gas, adding that “we have [a] Europe [deal] coming in tomorrow,” without specifying any details.

“A year ago, that level of tariffs [15%] would be shocking. Today, we breathe a sigh of relief,” Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, told CNBC.

In his tariff letter sent to Japan earlier this month, Trump had threatened 25% levies on the country’s exports from Aug. 1, one percentage point higher from the 24% rate announced during his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Tuesday’s announcement comes just days after Ishiba’s governing coalition lost its majority in the country’s upper house elections that had raised worries of undermining the country’s negotiating position with the U.S.

HSBC said in a note Monday that “For Prime Minister Ishiba, a favourable U.S. trade deal could help stave off a no-confidence motion or internal challenge from the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party].”

Ishiba had said after the upper house loss that he would stay on as prime minister, but Japanese media outlet Yoimuri reported early Wednesday that he would decide whether to stay on his position after assessing the progress of the tariff negotiations, according to a Google translation of the report in Japanese.

Japan’s markets jumped after the deal announcement, with major auto stocks soaring, some over 10%, while the broader Nikkei 225 gained more than 2%.

Shares in Japan’s Honda
rose over 8%, while Toyota climbed above 11%. Nissan jumped more than 8%, and Mazda
Motor surged 17%. Mitsubishi Motors popped 13%.

Jeremy Schwartz, global CIO at asset manager Wisdomtree told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that the size of the market reaction meant that the market “got very pessimistic on how things were progressing, overly pessimistic.“

Schwartz also said Trump was using these deals to not just even out the trade deficit, but also to drive strategic spending in the U.S., such as a planned investment by Softbank, OpenAI and Oracle of up to $500 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure over the next four years.

He called the trade deal with Japan as having “some of the best terms” from any of the major countries. "

MY COMMENT

Sounds like a massive improvement over what we had previously....as are most of the deals so far. AND.....I like the comment that we will have a deal with.....EUROPE......tomorrow.

All of this is happening because we were willing to negotiate and take a confusing and erratic hard line......the alternative is we would have just muddled along as usual and done nothing.

To me.....well worth a few months of turmoil.....with little to no inflation or other economic consequences....so far.

 

Of course after all the MASSIVE fear-mongering and drama BS.....everyone will act like....no big deal. The markets will just be.....Ho-Hum....nothing to see here.

 

Here is a little bit more:

"TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan and the United States agreed to keep the current 50% tariff on steel and aluminium as part of the bilateral trade deal, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-us-agree-keep-current-014953682.html

 

Well the SP500 closed at 6309 today. My prediction for 2025 at the start of the year was.....6800-6900. Now with gains of about.....7.78% to 9.37%.....needed to hit my prediction.

It seemed so out there at the start of the year.....but....we are now totally within range of hitting my prediction over the next 5.5 months.

 

I will be around for the open tomorrow......but about 10:30 or so....I will bow out for the day and head out to the studio. So I will miss most of the day and the close and the earnings after the bell. My portfolio does all the heavy lifting anyway....I am actually IRRELEVANT. I just supply the seed money.

I will also be playing a show on Friday.....and have a few shows scheduled in September and October.

 

Here is another one.

Trump says US will impose 19% tariff on imports from Philippines in deal struck with leader Marcos

https://apnews.com/article/marcos-trump-philippines-china-tariffs-3138d1d7f8368c022ab9242bebb4a2e2

".....the U.S. would impose a 19% tariff rate on the Philippines, down from a 20% tariff he threatened starting Aug. 1. In return, he said, the Philippines would have an open market and the U.S. would not pay tariffs."

 

In other news:

"The White House also unveiled new details of a confirmed trade agreement with Indonesia too. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported that a 19% tariff will apply to Indonesian goods, as well as a 40% rate on any “transhipped” goods. US officials said no tax would apply to "99%" of US imports."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...n-with-over-100b-counterattack-200619069.html

 

MORE good news....yet in typical media fashion.....they just cant resist putting those little.....personal opinion....words on the end of the headline.

One chart shows how the market has moved on from tariffs — for now

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-...moved-on-from-tariffs--for-now-100023003.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks aren't moving on tariff headlines like they used to.

This trend has been evident over the past several weeks as equities have continued to rise to record highs despite ongoing threats from President Trump regarding escalating tariffs on a variety of countries.

In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin analyzed the performance of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and a basket of stocks with "broad tariff exposure." Through April, both stocks had been reacting aggressively to tariff announcements from Trump.

But as the below chart shows, the reactions have become increasingly smaller during Trump's latest flurry of letters detailing reciprocal tariffs throughout July.

"Our client conversations indicate that many investors believe tariff rates will eventually settle lower than what the recent announcements have indicated," Kostin wrote.

Kostin noted that, up to this point, economic data on consumer spending, inflation, and the labor market have shown a "smaller impact" from tariffs than many investors have feared. This resiliency, which also emerged in the early reporting period for second quarter financial updates from S&P 500 companies, has been backing the market's chug higher to fresh records.

"Equity investors appear to be looking through potential near-term economic and earnings weakness and focusing instead on the prospect for robust growth in 2026," Kostin wrote.

Kostin expects the S&P 500 to gain another 5% in the next six months and 10% in the next 12 months. That call is predicated in part on "investors' continued willingness to focus on the solid longer-term trajectory of earnings growth," per Kostin.

Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson also expressed optimism about the outlook for stocks in the intermediate term, writing in a note to clients he's "leaning toward" his bull case for the S&P 500, which would bring the benchmark index to 7,200 in the next year. That stance relies on corporate earnings resilience and the lack of impact seen from tariffs thus far.

"An under appreciated aspect of the earnings story into 2026 is that positive operating leverage is returning due in part to lower wage costs, and it may be further enhanced by AI adoption," Wilson wrote. "We're also not hearing a significant level of concern from corporates in terms of tariff-related costs impacting margins thus far, though we could hear more about this risk in 3Q."

Wilson did note there are a variety of short-term risks, such as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) recently rising close to 4.5%, a level that's challenged equities over the past several years, and the possibility that tariffs send inflation higher in the next few months.

"It's important to note that we think these risks are temporary and only likely to lead to modest consolidation in price — we're buyers of dips," Wilson wrote."

MY COMMENT

The question for investors.....are you really long term....or....are you going to let short term events and short term story-lines control your investing?

IGNORE the short term noise....that is my mantra. AND....there is a lot of it EVERY day.