OK....I had a BIG gain in my nine stocks today. I also beat the SP500 by......0.10%. MOVING on to NVDA week.
The week that was. DOW year to date +7.64% DOW five days +1.49% SP500 year to date +10.20% SP500 five days +0.34% NASDAQ 100 year to date +12.10% NASDAQ 100 five days (-0.77%) NASDAQ year to date +11.49% NASDAQ five days (-0.56%) RUSSELL year to date +5.94% RUSSELL five days +3.37% As for me I ended with my entire portfolio at year to date.....+18.72%. Last week it was at......+20.26%.
Looks like we had a nice Friday. Nice way to end the week. I tuned out after the morning posts and missed all of the other stuff. Seems most of the media stuff reminds me of all those old tabloid magazine racks at the grocery store checkout back years ago.
REALLY.....you have got to be kidding. WOW......what a CRISIS......big cap tech stocks were lagging the markets for a.....GASP.......whole week. IDIOCY. Of course there was a massive SHORT ATTACK with ubiquitous media articles rehashing the same old arguments about PLTR and flogging the end of the AI trade...mantra. This little article makes no mention of that.....fact. The use of the term....."investors"....is also totally off. Sounds more like....."traders"......not investors to me. ALSO....sounds like just repetition of the short attackers story-line to me. Investors' biggest conundrum right now https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The most popular trade of the past three years has hit a speed bump. Or maybe it's nearing the end of the road. That's one of the biggest debates happening in markets right now. A group of large technology stocks that have benefited from momentum in the AI trade have lagged over the past week. Palantir (PLTR) is perhaps the most notable this week. A flagship of the AI bullish narrative, the stock had fallen almost 20% from its most recent all-time high amid a six-day losing streak that ended on Thursday. But zoom out over the past year, and the stock is up more than 375%. As the stock chart shows, that's a hefty return from when the stock was trading hands at $30 a year ago. So some profit-taking in this stock, or any other AI darlings, would make sense. But the trajectory also raises another question. Clearly, there have been dips in the stock over the last year, like the 40% drop from February's high of $125 to an April low of $74. And now it's more than doubled since that low, along with a slew of other AI-related stocks that ripped off the April bottom. So is this just another buyable dip in the AI bull market rally, or should investors really be preparing for the end of a decade of dominance for large-cap stocks? That question — whether it be about Palantir stock or any other large-cap technology name — is at the core of the market action over the past week. The Russell 2000 is up about 6.7% since the start of August, outperforming the S&P 500's roughly 2% gain. Healthcare (XLV) and Materials (XLB) are leading the sector action after lagging for most of this year, while Technology has been the clear laggard as the worst-performing sector in the month. Small caps have had their moments over the past two years, happening in fits and starts. They've even been a popular pick among Wall Street strategists making predictions for the year ahead. But those moments just haven't seemed to materialize into a full-fledged rotation, as the Russell 2000 Index is up just 4.5% over the past year and hasn't reached a record close yet in this bull market run. But here we find ourselves, back in the big debate as to whether the rotation is actually happening this time, for real. There are, of course, arguments on both sides. "History would suggest there is more to go in cap-weighted dominance," Bank of America's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note to clients this week. "But if the Fed's next move is a rate cut, and if the Regime indicator is shifting to a Recovery, we think the run may be closer to done." On the other side, it's hard to bet against Big Tech and stop dancing with the stocks that brought the market this far. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that while he believes the tech sector could see some more troubles in the near term, he sees further dips as buyable. "The main risk to monitor is a deterioration in earnings momentum — however, profit trends remain strong for now," Lerner wrote. At the end of the day, stock valuations are about making money and the hopes of making more of it. Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of this AI bull market, will report quarterly results after the bell on Wednesday, Aug. 27." MY COMMENT About as DUMB as you can get. A five day drop.....you have got to be kidding. I love the little sentence about how...... since the start of August.....blah, blah, blah. Of course mentioning the month of August....on a psychological level....makes your brain visualize a market drop of a month. But the time span of the little drop was ONLY a week. The first couple of weeks in August were EPIC gain weeks. A perfect example of the constant BS that long term investors have to....ENDURE.
As to the above......here is what I think. On Monday at the open in one of the accounts that I manage I am selling ALL shares of.....training wheels position.... WMT. I am using that money to add $10,000 each to AAPL, AMZN, HD, COST, GOOGL, and MSFT. I am also adding $15,000 each to NVDA and PLTR. These moves will happen at the open on Monday. I can always add WMT back into the portfolio later........but.....for now I prefer to see this money allocated to the other eight stocks. I believe that their potential for gains is MASSIVE over the next 5-10 years.
PLEASE.......I am posting the above moves as part of my pledge on this thread to post all trades when they happen. This allows readers to follow my journey as a long term investor.....as documented in this thread.... over what is now a time span of nearly.....SEVEN YEARS. BUT......I am NOT recommending that anyone else COPY what I am doing. My situation and the situation of the various family members that I manage accounts for is very specific to........."US". "YOUR situation is very specific to "YOU". Your situation may not be like mine or my family members. EVERYONE must invest according to what is best for their own very specific situation.
Just for the historical record......this is the market yesterday. Dow surges more than 800 points to post record close as Powell speech fuels rally https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Yeah, the media is doing their thing as usual. Always in search for trouble, fear, or whatever narrative they are paid to push. I don't think it is all that uncommon for some things to cool off or money to move or reallocate to different things at times. There have always been times when some sectors may move differently for a period of time. I noticed a time or two this week when some of the TECH was down a bit that some of the dividend type stocks were up. Maybe some of that was folks trimming a bit of gains and adding to some of the other things. Of course, the big firms and institutional investors are always doing something as well. Then there was some broad market gains if I remember correctly. My opinion, not everything always means something. As to the PLTR stuff mentioned, you guys that follow it closely are probably right, so I can't comment much on what went on there. Nice little update on the portfolio WXYZ. On my end of management, I haven't really done much of anything. I continue to make my general contributions as scheduled and just keep moving along. Not much else to do. I plan to add some additional money outside of the regular contributions as the year dwindles down if I can. I checked back in once again on the international index recently. That particular fund is up about +26% YTD and still beating the SP 500 at +10.20%. I don't know why I am intrigued with checking on that every once in awhile. Maybe because it was consistently (international) getting beat for so long or because I held it at one time. Interesting to see so far at this point. No plans on my part to do anything. We will soon be into September before we know it. This year has rolled by quickly it seems. We still have a ways to go, but it will be interesting to see how we all end up for the year.
I think that is a good public service announcement for the thread. Not just your portfolio/decisions, but for anybody. There are many different long term investors here. Many doing different things. It is so important to do and construct a portfolio for yourself and your own goals and financial situation. It matters significantly to do so. If one does not have a personal plan that fits you, then one will likely never stick with it....at least in my opinion. I enjoy many posters here and following their journey, but there is no way I would want to do some of the same things in my own plan. It is not that I believe there is anything wrong, but it just does not match what I want to do or in some cases comfortable doing. Just as many would not want to match mine. I think the differences make it an even better thread. Our thesis of long term investing is something we all share and believe in and the proof is in the many posts. Our portfolios are very different among us, as they should be.... for everyone's situation is unique to the individual. For example, we usually put up our YTD numbers at the end of the year. There are many different numbers among the ones that do this. I always enjoy seeing those. There are some really big numbers sometimes (and then there is mine).
I will also mention.......I DO still have WMT as a small trial position in some of the accounts that I manage. I will make the moves above in a single account on Monday. So I have different levels of WMT from zero to small depending on the particular account. This will allow me to continue to follow WMT as a holding and see how I like it and ......IF......it can become a full position at some point in the future.
I got SKUNKED recently in my auction quest for a painting and a piece of sculpture. I lost out on both of them. I did not even get close. Both items blew past what I was willing to pay for them. That is how it is in the collecting world. The good news....there is never any shortage of auctions or good items. So I will just look forward to the various FALL auctions that I attend and watch.
The week ahead. Pretty obvious....it can be summed up in a single word......NVIDIA. Nvidia earnings set to test AI trade with stocks near record highs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks ended the week in rally mode after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door for a September interest rate cut. In the week ahead, earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) will see the world's largest company and AI leader test a summer rally that has stocks back near record highs. After slump earlier in the week, a massive surge following Powell's comments in Jackson Hole left the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) at a record high and other indexes roaring. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.5%. The Dow gained 1.5%. Nvidia's quarterly earnings release after the bell on Wednesday will be the week's key event, with updates on inflation, GDP growth, home sales, and consumer sentiment featuring on an economic calendar that will be busier than the earnings calendar. Outside of Nvidia, reports from Dell (DELL), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar General (DG), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) will serve as the corporate highlights. The door has 'opened wider' During what was likely his final speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as Fed chair, Jerome Powell told the audience the "shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." For investors, the words "may warrant" became a green light on rate cuts next month. Markets rallied in kind. In his speech, Powell highlighted that "downside risks to employment are rising," while "a reasonable base case is that the effects [of tariffs on inflation] will be relatively short-lived." JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, told clients in a note on Friday Powell's comments indicated the "door to a September cut opened wider." And market pricing suggested as much — investors were placing 85% odds on Friday that Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its September meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. These rate cut hopes will be put to the test on Friday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Economists expect annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.9% in July, up from the 2.8% seen in June. This would mark the highest annual increase since February. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.3%, unchanged from June. "Tariff-related price pressures are broadening across the goods sector and appear to be spilling over into the services sector," wrote economists at Wells Fargo in a note. "We ultimately expect core PCE inflation to peak slightly above 3% by the end of the year. With inflation drifting in the wrong direction and the labor market losing momentum, the Federal Reserve faces difficult trade-offs in balancing its dual mandate." Nvidia earnings on deck The largest stock in the market is slated to report quarterly results after the bell on Wednesday. Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings per share of $1.01 on revenue of $46.13 billion. A slew of Wall Street analysts have raised their price targets on Nvidia leading into the release, but at least one of those analysts warned the quarter may not impress to the level investors have become accustomed to over the past several years. "We expect NVDA to report strong [second quarter] results and guide [third quarter] slightly below consensus, as we expect NVDA's outlook to exclude direct revenue from China given pending license approvals and uncertainty on timing," Keybanc analyst John Vinh wrote in a note to clients on Aug. 19. Still, Vinh boosted his price target on the AI chip leader to $215 from $190, as he expects Nvidia's outlook to improve into next year. Nvidia shares entering the release are up 32% this year and have nearly doubled since the market bottom in April. The broadening begins Nvidia's earnings release comes at a precarious moment for the broader AI trade, which, outside of Friday's all-encompassing rally, has largely hit pause over the past few weeks. So far in August, the Information Technology sector (XLK) has been the worst performer in the S&P 500. Citi's head of trading strategy, Stuart Kaiser, wrote in a note to clients on Aug. 20 that he expects "sentiment selling" in the tech and AI trade to clear quickly unless Nvidia "posts a large disappointment." In other words, Kaiser sees the tech trade picking back up that started Friday as likely to continue. As tech has taken a back seat, some of this year's laggards have become the leaders. As markets believe the Fed is inching closer to cutting rates, interest rate-sensitive areas of the market have soared higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT) index is up 5% over the past month, while the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up over 10%. In that same time period, the S&P 500 is up just 2.6%. "We’ve changed back to a market condition that is more about rotation than the outright risk aversion," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick wrote in a note on Aug. 20. MY COMMENT In classic fashion the above OMITS the basic reason for the current.......ONE WEEK.....weakness in AI, big tech, and the AI trade........the SHORT ATTACK last week on PLTR and indirectly NVDA......along with a massive news campaign to claim that the AI trade might be in trouble. A coordinated and concentrated intentional attack by short sellers. I will say.....it is just about impossible for NVDA to ever satisfy with earnings now. It is a never ending battle with the constant and unrelenting negativity of the financial and other media. A shame.......and....shame on them.
To continue the above......the media is in total, full-on, negativity mode. It is unrelenting and continuous. it never ends and never will end....it is the new normal......that is just the baseline that we now have to ENDURE as long term investors. What I find amazing is that after all the BS we had to sit through last week.......and in spite of all the DIRE claims and negativity.....GUESS WHAT.....the markets are just below all time highs. I repeat.....ALL TIME HIGHS. How can this be....with what we heard about the sky falling last week? Well....it is the simple disconnect between speculation and sometimes outright falsehood....along with rampant sensationalism in the media......and reality of the REAL NUMBERS. In TRUTH....it has been an EPIC year for the markets so far. Earnings have been GREAT. The big averages have nice gains with four months left in the year......and......are for the most part at their typical year end average return with four months to go. The SP500 for example is over 10% year to date.....without considering dividends.....which would add another 1.5%. This is basically a little above the long term annual average for the SP500. In addition we have now seen the FED signal that there......might....be a rate cut in September.....as well as them reacting with more of a focus on reality rather than politics. With this little change in their language.....we have now reached the point where the markets are lined up as nicely as I can ever remember for an extended BULL RUN. A big part of this environment will be the BIG NEW TAX bill which has for the most part not even come into play yet. We are at the very beginning of a technical revolution......with AI and computing power. We are in a time of lower taxes, less regulation by government, less bureaucracy......and.....MOST importantly.......we have seen a HUGE move back to reason and rational thinking and away from INSANE political, social, and cultural policy. There is a.....GOLDEN RUNWAY.....extending out in front of stocks for the next 2-3 years. That wave that I continue to ride has now grown to a tsunami......a GOLDEN TSUNAMI. THIS.....is why I recently moved about $100,000.....from little training wheels position WMT........into the other eight stocks that I own in one of the portfolios that I manage. THIS is why I have continued to added shares in various acccounts to the concentrated eight stocks that I own......over the past month or two....even at market highs. I am looking at what I consider to be the medium term to long term.....PROBABILITY....in the markets especially in big tech. Of course.....you know me.....I am fully invested all the time.....a basic perma-bull. I ignore the inevitable corrections......and even perhaps.......the once in a while black swan ..........that will interrupt the markets and cause panic and fear. I know....it would be nice to be able to enjoy the ride for once and not have the ENDURE the constant negativity and fear-mongering.....but that is just the way it is. REMEMBER......however.....to me PROBABILITY means a more than 50% chance......and....that leaves the other 49% or 50% that is.....the negative..... "possible". That is why I am a long term investor......for probability to work in my favor....first I have to be realistic and rational in what I think I am seeing.....and second.....I have to be long term enough to capture that probability. It is the same in a casino....the probability is with the house....but short term...it can skew way out of line with what that probability guarantees. (NOT that the markets are a casino...LOL) LETS HAVE A GOOD WEEK......to kick off the final four months of the year.
