The Long Term Investor

LOL.....you have got to love the DATA. On one hand the most recent new home sales SLIP. On the other hand the prior month data is REVISED UP.

US new home sales fall in July; June sales revised higher

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-fall-july-141838273.html

Can you trust any of it? I doubt it.

However the good news......NONE of it is worth anything to me as a long term investor. I dont rely on any of it for my investing.

It is short term media chaff and short term NOISE.

 

So far I am seeing.....LITTLE TO NOTHING....relevant to investing in any of the financial news today. It is first....massively politics. It is second.....general fluff. AND last....what I am seeing today has nothing to do with fundamental investing or individual stocks.

it appears to me that so far today just about ALL the financial news content is totally irrelevant....just treading water by the media......mostly to fill white space today. I am sure they are ALL on hold while waiting for NVDA earnings mid-week.

 

Here is the market today.

S&P 500 slips to start week, Intel and Nvidia lend support to Nasdaq

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 fell on Monday as investors looked ahead to Nvidia earnings later in the week.

The S&P 500 shed 0.2%, while the 30-stock Dow dropped 195 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite pared back earlier losses to rise 0.1%, propped up by gains in Nvidia and Intel.

Nvidia shares were 0.6% higher. The artificial intelligence chip darling received a number of positive endorsements from analysts heading into its earnings report after the bell Wednesday.

Intel shares also jumped, extending their gains from the previous session, on the heels of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealing Friday that the U.S. government has taken a 10% stake in the chipmaker. That could be a sign of more to come from the Trump administration, as White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Monday that the stake is part of broader strategy to create a sovereign wealth fund.

“I’m sure that at some point there’ll be more transactions, if not in this industry then other industries,” the director of the National Economic Council said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

President Donald Trump echoed that sentiment, saying Monday morning that he will make deals like the Intel stake “all day long.”

The moves come after stocks closed out last week with a winning session. On Friday, the blue-chip Dow soared more than 800 points, or nearly 2%, to score new all-time intraday and closing highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
also gained almost 2%, while the broad market S&P 500 rose more than 1%. The latter came within three points of its record at its session high.

Stocks rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, during which he signaled the central bank could begin easing monetary policy next month. Expectations for a quarter-point rate cut in September jumped to about 86%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, from about 75% earlier in the week.

But CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall isn’t surprised that stocks are taking a breather by giving back some of their gains Monday.

“A lot of the gains that we saw on Friday were the result of short covering, because I think people were very worried that the Fed would basically say, ‘We’re not cutting for the rest of the year,’” the firm’s chief investment strategist said. “We have so much stuff between now and September 17 that while we benefited from the enthusiasm on Friday, we still have a lot that we have to endure before we are convinced that the Fed will be cutting rates,” he also said, adding that the market will see “restrained gains” until then.

In the week ahead, traders are looking forward to Friday’s July personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, will rise 2.9% on a year-over-year basis, compared to its 2.8% increase in June."

MY COMMENT

I tend to agree that much of the gain on Friday was short covering. In fact I see the current market....till after Labor day......as heavily influenced by the short traders......and....the very short term trading platforms. it is a shallow market with little actually going on.

Even the little retail traders and investors are probably pretty caught up in the start to the school year......and the end of summer vacation for their kids.... and not paying much attention to the markets.

 

Ok....the big one.....NVDA.

I expect that NVDA earnings will be a very nice BEAT of just about all the metrics.

Unfortunately I think I am already seeing the ramp up of BS....that will cause the earnings to once again be ignored and disrespected.

In line with the recent trend.....I would not be surprised in the least.....to see the NVDA earnings BEAT.....spun as a negative....not good enough. It is RIDICULOUS but we have seen this happen many times over the past years.

In fact as I type this I hear Varney in the background asking a guest....."is the AI boom fading"......"what happens if NVIDIA disappoints"? Of course the guest says.....NO......his key point......you have to own it NOT trade it.

This is the short term BS that the markets are having to endure right now. There is a mild.....but persistent....little wall of fear and uncertainty....underlying the markets right now and for the past week or two. A little bit of doubt and a mild crisis of confidence.

 

I just looked at my primary personal account......I am surprised that is is now positive with a nice medium GAIN.

I have the following stocks in the RED right now although some of them have greatly improved over the past hour.....WMT, PLTR, HD, and COST. YES.....I still have a small watch-position of WMT in my primary personal account.

I also note that the trades I made in one account this morning are MOSTLY in the green.. Those that are red are HD, COST and PLTR .....although even those are moving toward the green. PLTR in particular was down over $8 earlier today. It is now at about a loss of $2. Too bad I did not catch that $8 loss when my trades happened at the open.

 

Time to sit and wait.

It is just one of those days that opens with mild negativity and a nagging feeling of uncertainty. I dont believe it is an accurate reflection of the STRENGTH of the markets and the top companies. I can feel it myself over the past day or two.

Of course I IGNORE those sorts of feelings....it is just your brain and emotions messing with you.

Or perhaps it is a symptom of our ancient physical and genetic reaction to the shortening day and sunlight as we approach Fall.

I notice it in the animals around me over the past week or two. Most of the humming-birds that we feed all summer have suddenly disappeared over the past two weeks....they have started migrating to Mexico. The female deer are starting to group into herds after being move solitary for the past few months with their new fawns. Our horses are preparing for and signaling Fall and Winter with their hair growth and other behavior. Etc, etc, etc.

 

Looks like I am still hanging in there with about the same medium gain so far today. Even though I now only have three stocks in the green out of my nine. Three others are just slightly red.

So far with the gain I have I am happy with the day considering.

 

STILL a mixed market with the NASDAQ green and the SP500 red. It continues as a very mild day.

 

I love this from NVDA. They never sit still....they are always looking for new opportunity. I agree with Huang that robotics has a chance to be a HUGE business for them in the near future.

Nvidia’s new ‘robot brain’ goes on sale for $3,499 as company targets robotics for growth

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/nvidias-thor-t5000-robot-brain-chip.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Nvidia announced on Monday that its latest robotics chip module, the Jetson AGX Thor, is now on sale for $3,499 as a developer kit.
• The company calls the chip a “robot brain.” The first kits ship next month, Nvidia said last week, and the chips will allow customers to create robots.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said robotics is the company’s largest growth opportunity outside of artificial intelligence.

Nvidia announced Monday that its latest robotics chip module, the Jetson AGX Thor, is now on sale for $3,499 as a developer kit.

The company calls the chip a “robot brain.” The first kits ship next month, Nvidia said last week, and the chips will allow customers to create robots.

After a company uses the developer kit to prototype their robot, Nvidia will sell Thor T5000 modules that can be installed in production-ready robots. If a company needs more than 1,000 Thor chips, Nvidia will charge $2,999 per module.

CEO Jensen Huang has said robotics is the company’s largest growth opportunity outside of artificial intelligence, which has led to Nvidia’s overall sales more than tripling in the past two years.

“We do not build robots, we do not build cars, but we enable the whole industry with our infrastructure computers and the associated software,” said Deepu Talla, Nvidia’s vice president of robotics and edge AI, on a call with reporters Friday.

The Jetson Thor chips are based on a Blackwell graphics processor, which is Nvidia’s current generation of technology used in its AI chips, as well as its chips for computer games.

Nvidia said that its Jetson Thor chips are 7.5 times faster than its previous generation. That allows them to run generative AI models, including large language models and visual models that can interpret the world around them, which is essential for humanoid robots, Nvidia said. The Jetson Thor chips are equipped with 128GB of memory, which is essential for big AI models.

Companies including Agility Robotics, Amazon, Meta and Boston Dynamics are using its Jetson chips, Nvidia said. Nvidia has also invested in robotics companies such as Field AI.

However, robotics remains a small business for Nvidia, accounting for about 1% of the company’s total revenue, despite the fact that it has launched several new robot chips since 2014. But it’s growing fast.

Nvidia recently combined its business units to group its automotive and robotics divisions into the same line item. That unit reported $567 million in quarterly sales in May, which represented a 72% increase on an annual basis.

The company said its Jetson Thor chips can be used for self-driving cars as well, especially from Chinese brands. Nvidia calls its car chips Drive AGX, and while they are similar to its robotics chips, they run an operating system called Drive OS that’s been tuned for automotive purposes."

MY COMMENT

This company is driven. It never sleeps. This is exactly what I LOVE to see in a business that I invest in.

And.....like their AI business.....in the early stages with a product like this you never know where it will lead.

 

I am pulling for MSFT, AMZN, and PLTR....to turn green before the close today. All are slightly red at this moment.....and drifting along.

 

Another good news item for today.

Canada drops several retaliatory tariffs to align with U.S. exemptions

https://www.cbtnews.com/canada-drops-several-retaliatory-tariffs-to-align-with-u-s-exemptions/

1. "Canada is dropping many retaliatory tariffs to match U.S. exemptions, ensuring over 85% of trade with the U.S. remains tariff-free.
2. Canada retains tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos while negotiating with the U.S., balancing industry protection with broader trade access.
3. Prime Minister Carney frames the move as a tactical step to preserve Canada’s trade advantage and prepare for the USMCA review in 2026, despite domestic criticism from unions and opposition politicians."

 

Speaking of collecting and collectables.

Kevin O’Leary says he bought Bryant-Jordan card for record-breaking $13 million at auction

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/bryant-jordan-card-kevin-oleary.html

 

LOL.....I ended today with a small gain....yes a gain. With only two stocks in the green....NVDA and GOOGL. I also beat the SP500 today by.....0.56%.

WOW.....I will take it....considering the red close and the fade at the end of the day.

 

I like this little article.

The truth about the US dollar’s weakness — and fears of its growing threat to US stocks

https://nypost.com/2025/08/25/busin...and-fears-of-its-growing-threat-to-us-stocks/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The US dollar is getting hammered. It’s weak against the euro, the British pound, Canada’s loonie and the Aussie. It just logged what many call its “worst first half ever.”

That, the bears say, shows faltering confidence in US assets. They expect the jitters will soon ripple through and overwhelm supposedly “euphoric” stock markets, reversing the rebound from April’s low.

Wrong. Currency swings say nothing about the stock market’s direction – simply nothing. And 2025’s greenback weakness isn’t all that unusual anyway. Let’s thumb through a few of these notes in more detail.

Whatever the dollar does, investors worry. When it’s weak, they fear it will make imports pricier and stoke inflation. When it’s strong, it supposedly saps corporate profits on exports. A strong dollar also can raise the risk of debt defaults by developing nations that borrow in dollars. So should we worry about one, all, or none of the above?

Consider that US stocks rose in 44 of 56 calendar years since 1968. Those up years were split near-evenly between years when the dollar strengthened (24) and years when it weakened (20). In the years when stocks fell, the greenback rose in six and fell in six. Do you see any pattern there? Any reason to fear or cheer dollar strength or weakness? Is six worth more than half a dozen, or vice versa?

Even over shorter periods, there is no identifiable relationship. Yes, you can cherry-pick brief periods where a weak dollar panic drove a stock market correction. But for each of those, I can point to the opposite, like late 2004 when rampant weak dollar fears coincided with a steep Q4 S&P 500 rally.

Overall, this century’s weekly correlation between the dollar and US stocks is statistically only a slight variance from no correlation at all. So the bucking buck doesn’t buck stocks reliably in either direction.

7
Consider that US stocks rose in 44 of 56 calendar years since 1968. Those up years were split near-evenly between years when the dollar strengthened (24) and years when it weakened (20).
Why does all of this make sense, upon closer inspection? A weak dollar may make America’s exports more competitive overseas, but it makes imported components costlier — and vice versa for a strong dollar. Also, corporate leaders with overseas supply chains and customer bases are superbly versed in currency hedging.

Further, there is nothing notably unique about 2025’s weak dollar. Investors focused on fear need to zoom out some. A glance back before 2025 reveals the dollar has been sitting at levels decried as “too strong” for years. Heck, today’s level is stronger against a trade-weighted currency basket than 58% of months since 1970.

Perhaps you tie the dollar’s weakness to politics. US politicians traditionally talk up a strong dollar’s supposed benefits. And now? President Trump recently said, “Well, you know, I’m a person that likes a strong dollar, but a weak dollar makes you a hell of a lot more money.”

His nominee for the Fed’s temporary opening, Stephen Miran, outspokenly favors not only dollar weakness but also eliminating the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

7
7
7
In fact, currency markets are treating Trump as a traditional Republican. Since Richard Nixon’s 1969 inaugural year, the dollar weakened in 75% of Republican presidents’ terms, strengthening on average only in their fourth years. Ronald Reagan’s first term is the exception, but that’s it. Further, 2025’s weakness through July (-7.9%) parallels Trump’s first term though July 2017 (-9.1%). Why fear something routine?

7
In fact, currency markets are treating Trump as a traditional Republican. Since Richard Nixon’s 1969 inaugural year, the dollar weakened in 75% of Republican presidents’ terms, strengthening on average only in their fourth years.
Usually, those fearing dollar weakness miss a basic truth: Currencies trade in pairs. Over time, developed nation currencies balance out in what look like lake ripples. Over the past 40 years, the buck sine-waves around tight ranges against all of them except Japan – and even thereto for 35 years. They even out in time – and they will this time, too.

So let others worry over dollar weakness – while you continue to enjoy this global bull market."

MY COMMENT

I am and will....continue to enjoy the BULL MARKET. BEWARE those that get caught up in one measure or another or some data that they obsessively focus on. They always miss the.....BIG PICTURE....which is obvious and right in front of their face. They are caught in the weeds....or just as bad....they have an agenda that has nothing to do with the markets.

 

Sounds like.....yes....more good news to me.

US business spending on equipment kicks off third-quarter on strong note

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-core-capital-goods-orders-124514241.html


"New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased more than expected in July, suggesting business spending on equipment got off to a strong start in the third quarter".....

....."The data allayed some concerns over the economy's health that had been stirred by a sharp slowdown in employment gains during the three months through July. It could prompt economists to upgrade their economic growth estimates for this quarter.

"Business investment is strong, which makes the economic outlook a little less uncertain at least for now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS."

 

SORRY......investors and the markets dont care about the latest FED/political drama. As an investor.....I dont care at all. It is an event that is irrelevant to me as an investor.

HERE is the market today.

S&P 500 is little changed as traders weigh Trump’s latest Fed salvo, brace for Nvidia earnings

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks were flat Tuesday as Wall Street looked beyond President Donald Trump’s removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from central bank’s board, awaiting quarterly figures from chip giant Nvidia.

The S&P 500, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, hovered around the flatline. The Nasdaq Composite
was trading around the flatline as well.

Long-term Treasury yields rose after the Trump move, while short-term yields declined as investors steepened the yield curve on the notion rates may go lower in the short-term, but eventually go higher as a politicized Fed becomes less attentive to inflation. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last down 0.2%.

Trump’s unprecedented move adds to the pressure the president has been putting on the central bank’s independence. By law, a president may only remove Fed governor “for cause.” As a result, it is possible the matter will be challenged in the courts.

There are currently six members on the Fed’s board, with one seat vacant after the resignation of Adriana Kugler earlier this month. Removing Cook would leave five members, with non-Trump appointees still holding a majority. However, if Stephen Miran is cleared for the Kugler vacancy and the president is successful in removing Cook, it would give Trump a 4-3 majority.

If Fed Chair Jerome Powell leaves his seat voluntarily after his term expires in May, it would give the president a fifth vote.

Investors already appeared hopeful about the prospect of lower interest rates coming in September, as hinted at by Powell last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. They’re additionally looking ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, which could bolster the megacap tech trade following its recent slide. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks rallied Friday, but only after five straight days of losses.

“In the immediate term, markets will probably get over the Cook news fairly quickly (assuming this is a discrete event and Trump doesn’t attempt to fire Powell), turning its attention back to Nvidia, the PCE, and jobs, but the Fed’s independence is undeniably being undermined, a process with negative long-term consequences,” said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge.

Also weighing on sentiment, Trump said Monday that he plans to impose “substantial” new tariffs as well as export restrictions on chips for countries that do not remove digital taxes.

However, sentiment was kept in check by anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings results scheduled for after market close Wednesday. Shares of the artificial intelligence chip darling were little changed after seeing meaningful gains in the prior two sessions."

MY COMMENT

A FED member in mortgage trouble.......who cares. My focus is on what really matters......the activity and earnings of the companies that I own.

 

WELL, well.....the markets have suddenly started to pop to the green side. ALL the big averages are now mildly in the green.

 

LOL......LOL....I just looked at my nine stocks. I have a nice gain so far......BUT.....only two stocks in the green......PLTR and NVDA.

If I get to have ONLY two green stocks.....those two are a perfect choice for my portfolio.

Now lets work on adding some others to that list.

 

NICE....two green days in a row for my nine stocks. Yesterday a small gain.....today a medium gain. Today was thanks to....PLTR, NVDA, AMZN, and AAPL. I also beat the SP500 today by....0.24%.