A nice big/medium gain for me today. I had two stocks in the RED......NVDA and PLTR......the beneficiaries of a relentless media attack for the past week or two. I also beat the SP500 today by....0.61%.
I have previously sold all WMT in a few of the accounts that I manage. Tomorrow I will sell off ALL the WMT in my own accounts. It is a trial position....a training wheels stock.....but it is real money. AND....at this point I want to get that money into my other stocks. I will also be receiving $35,000 over the next week. Ten thousand is a dividend from our family Oil and Gas corporation. The other $25,000 is from elsewhere. I will add the WMT proceeds to this money and invest it all in all at once. I still like WMT and for that matter PG.....but....I can not afford................. to not have that money in my other stocks. So for now....I am ditching any plan to add stocks to my portfolio and will simply sit on my....EIGHT.....core stock holdings. Of course the markets always seem to know when I am expecting money and going to invest. Witness the big jump in GOOGL and AAPL today. I should have the WMT money and the $25,000 ready to invest tomorrow. I will put those funds into my eight stocks.....on an equal basis. I will do the same with the $10,000 dividend which will hopefully be ready to invest next week.
Speaking of NVDA. THIS is what I call....DOMINANT. Nvidia Just Scored a Major Market Share Win. Should You Buy NVDA Stock Here? https://www.barchart.com/story/news...rket-share-win-should-you-buy-nvda-stock-here (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) owned an exciting 94% of the worldwide GPU sales in the second quarter of 2025 according to the latest Jon Peddie Research report. A total of 11.6 million graphics processing units were sold globally in Q2, representing roughly 27% sequential growth that underscores continued demand from AI workloads and data-intensive applications. Part of this increase was related to “buyers trying to get ahead” of the expected tariff hikes as well, the report added. Versus its August high, Nvidia stock is down over 8% at the time of writing. www.barchart.com Why Is the Jon Peddie Research Report Bullish for Nvidia Stock The aforementioned report bodes well for NVDA stock because it confirms the chip manufacturer is retaining its dominance in the fast-growing artificial intelligence market. With rivals like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) barely registering, the report suggests Nvidia’s pricing power and margin potential remain strong. Moreover, this level of control over GPU sales positions the semiconductor behemoth to weather tariff disruptions and supply chain volatility as well. Simply put, owning 94% of a market that continues to see rising demand reinforces Nvidia’s role as the backbone of next-gen computing infrastructure and is, therefore, bullish for the AI stock. BofA Sees NVDA Shares Rallying Further to $220 Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya maintained his “Buy” rating and $220 price target on Nvidia shares this week, reiterating the multinational’s dominance in AI will be “hard to dislodge.” According to him, the company’s Q2 results last week confirmed its financials remain “rock-solid” and the Blackwell ramp will drive further upside in NVDA stock in the second half of 2025. The BofA analyst also sees potential in Nvidia’s AI PC strategy, possibly involving a stand-alone CPU or strategic partnerships. Note that Arya’s forecast calls for another 30% upside in the AI stock from current levels. Nvidia Remains a Street Favorite in 2025 Other Wall Street analysts also agree that Nvidia stock remains worth owning despite its meteoric rally over the past four months. The consensus rating on NVDA shares currently sits at “Strong Buy” with the mean target of about $210 indicating potential upside of a little under 25% from here." MY COMMENT Owning......94%....of the GPU market is the definition of DOMINATING. I am also very HIGH on the path the company seems to be forging in ROBOTICS. There will be some real money to be made in the robotics area over the next 5-15 years for NVDA. Back to the above....we know that 11.6MILLION GPU units were sold in the second quarter. If NVDA has roughly 94% of that market and those sales......that means that NVDA sold.....the equivalent of....about 10.9MILLION of those units. Although NVDA does NOT report or break-down this data or information.
The eight "BUY" orders that I mention above for my new $25,000 and the proceeds of the sale of my small WMT position......are in and will execute at the open.
MORE good news for a FED rate cut this month. US private payrolls miss expectations in August https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-private-payrolls-miss-expectations-122936780.html "WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in August amid easing labor market conditions. Private employment rose by 54,000 jobs last month after a slightly upwardly revised 106,000 increase in July, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 65,000 following a previously reported 104,000 gain in July.".......
Just NOTHING going on today of any consequence. Here is the result. S&P 500 rises as traders brace for Friday’s jobs report after weak ADP hiring data https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose on Thursday as traders awaited the August jobs report following a weak private payrolls report. The S&P 500 jumped 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 203 points, or about 0.5%, but those gains were kept in check by a 5% fall in Salesforce shares on the heels of the software company posting a disappointing revenue outlook. The ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 54,000 in August. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected private employers to add 75,000 jobs. The figure is also less than the revised 106,000 in July. The reaction was limited as investors reasoned that the recent ADP data was weak enough for the Federal Reserve to justify a September rate cut, but not soft enough to herald a recession. Traders increased their bets that the central bank would cut on Sept. 17, with fed funds futures trading showing an uptick initially following ADP’s report, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool. “The Federal Reserve’s free pass on the labor market has ended,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “ADP data continue to reinforce the narrative that the rate of positive change in the labor market has slowed significantly, so you can expect the Fed to tilt it’s balance of risks to cut rates in September.” Jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 30 also increased to 237,000. That number came in above estimates and marked an 8,000 gain from the prior week, providing more evidence of slowing in the labor market. Meanwhile, August’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading came in at 52.0, slightly better than the Dow Jones forecast for 50.8. Those reports come ahead of Friday’s big jobs report, which is expected to post a 75,000 nonfarm payrolls gain for last month, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Wall Street is coming off a mixed session. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted solid gains thanks to tech. On the other hand, the blue-chip Dow, known for its greater exposure to the real economy, dipped 0.05%. Traders are also turning their eyes to Washington for the latest on trade, after President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to quickly rule on an appeal that would overturn lower court decisions that deemed most tariffs illegal." MY COMMENT I like it. Just the usual "stuff" today......irrelevant short term NOISE.
YEA. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has fallen to 6.5%, Freddie Mac says, the lowest level since last October https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-rate-30-mortgage-fallen-160048955.html
There is an obsessive focus on the FED for the past week or two. The usual fear-mongering. Lots of articles about FED independence. Etc, etc, etc. The FED is a JOKE. They have caused most of the recessions over the past 50 years. They have NEVER solved any economic issue. They are simply reactive and even than hardly competent. They constantly TRASH the stock markets. They have ZERO ability to control or guide the economy. AND....at this point.....are NOT relevant to investing.
The negativity and NOISE just could not hang in there today. By the close I was all GREEN in my eight stocks. I dont see how it is possible for stocks to have much of a continued run in the red....after the EPIC earnings that we just put up. In addition we are as close to CERTAINTY as possible for a rate cut in September. It is going to be hard for the FED to do anything else without just looking completely ridiculous....in light of past statements. I had a medium level gain today and beat the SP500 by......0.08%. On to Friday and the close of the first week in September.
For a couple of days there you could have locked in about....5%.....day in and day out....for the next THIRTY YEARS.....with absolutely ZERO risk in Thirty Year Treasuries. Looks like that opportunity is now over. I hope someone somewhere took advantage of this great long term return.
Speaking of bonds. Opinion: Bonds are a disaster. Why you may want to buy more. The longest-term Treasurys are down about two-thirds from their peak. Is that cheap enough? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/b...y-you-may-want-to-buy-more-a0c9b255?st=C1m2Bs (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "During the great bond bubble of the past decade, many Wall Street salesmen liked to reassure their clients that they could still expect to earn around 6% a year from their bonds because that was the “historical average.” By the time they were making these promises, the bonds themselves were so expensive that their yields, or interest rates, were often as low as 4% or even 3%. How advisers planned to squeeze 6% annual returns out of 4% or 3% bonds was a question left unanswered. Maybe the salesmen were simply very bad at math? There are also less charitable explanations. With the bond market now in freefall amid global panic about deficits and persistent inflation, their clients are counting the heavy cost. U.S. bonds have proven certificates of confiscation for nearly 17 years. According to an analysis I ran using Portfolio Visualizer, if you invested in U.S. bonds — for example using an index fund such as Vanguard Total Bond Index — between November 2008 and May 2022, and you reinvested all your interest payments, you would today have less money, after adjusting for inflation, than you did when you started. This doesn’t even include the additional hefty deductions for taxes. It is yet another rebuke for those who think that finance is a branch of the natural sciences, like physics, and that various investments and asset classes miraculously produce the same returns no matter the price you pay for them. And it’s a cautionary tale for those who insist today that sky-high stock prices will produce much happier outcomes than the sky-high bond prices of the last decade. But readers don’t come here to read about the past, and you can’t drive a car simply by looking in the rearview mirror. With bonds crashing worldwide, it’s almost impossible to avoid the obvious contrarian question. At what point are they worth buying? As it was foolish to buy them when they were expensive, when does it become smart to buy them when they are cheap? Or is this just another example of the famous Wall Street warning: Don’t try to catch a falling knife? We will find out within about two weeks whether global fund managers have finally capitulated and fled the bond market. That will be a key data point in the next BofA Securities monthly global fund-manager survey. But here’s one indicator that is starting to flash green: It’s called the Bennett Rule. This is named after my late friend Peter Bennett, a brilliant and successful money manager in London, who helped his small number of well-heeled clients beat the indexes over decades (even after charging them 1.5% a year in fees). Bennett reckoned that a durable asset class was worth buying once it had fallen by about two-thirds from its peak. He argued that at that point the asset had fallen so far out of favor, and was so unloved among investors, that it was a buyer’s market. It might yet fall much further, of course. But if you bought it and held it for five years, he said, you had a very good chance of making excellent returns. Long-term U.S. bonds are nearing this threshold now. For example the February 2050 zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bond (the Cusip is 912834VM7) is down to $28.52. In the COVID panic it touched $74. That’s just over a 60% drop. In May of this year it fell as low as $25, a 66% drop. The yield is now 5.17%. Zero-coupon bonds do not pay you coupons twice a year or even once. They just repay principal when they come due. You pay around $28 now and in February 2050 you collect $100. The Pimco 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF, which owns a basket of these very long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, fell to $62.83 on Tuesday. (It briefly touched $62.08 in May.) In 2020, during the depths of the COVID deflation panic and after a decade-plus of low interest rates, it touched $184. So it’s also down about two-thirds from the peak. None of this, obviously, is scientific. Bonds could keep falling. And how. (During the final years of the great inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the interest rate on 30-year Treasury bonds ranged from 7.5% to 15%. If such a thing happened this time, prices would collapse.) But what could be the bullish case for bonds here? Has the U.S. government — or any other government, for that matter — suddenly found a way to balance its books? Or is it persisting with the massive unfunded tax cuts first passed in 2017 and reupped in July, combined with an inexorable rise in the costs of providing Social Security income and Medicare benefits to growing numbers of elderly people? Nothing has turned bullish except perhaps the price. That said, it is possible to see a bull-case scenario for long-term Treasury bonds. The economy is slowing. If President Donald Trump succeeds in his campaign to MAGA-tize the Federal Reserve, short-term interest rates will soon be slashed. In order to drive down Uncle Sam’s interest costs, he may soon pressure it to resume quantitative easing — buying long-term bonds — in order to drive down long-term costs as well. Some strategists think sooner or later the U.S. government will have to do this, in order to make its deficits affordable. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is deflationary — large numbers of workers will soon be laid off. And as bond managers Hoisington pointed out recently, tariffs are only inflationary in the short term. In due course, Trump’s tariffs — assuming he finds a way around the legal issues — will be deflationary, as tariffs were in the 1930s. When you impose sales taxes and drive up prices, people end up buying less. And when foreign countries retaliate, as they always have, your exports decline, too. Then there’s this conundrum: If the bond market keeps tanking, sooner or later it will drag the stock market down with it. So if you are buying stocks right now you are also effectively betting that bond prices aren’t about to collapse. Only you are paying high prices, instead of lowish prices, for your bet." MY COMMENT I have not bought any bonds since the early 1980's....about 1982 to 1985. At that time I was buying ZERO-COUPON thirty year treasuries. I used them to fund my KEOGH PLAN.....for about three years when the rates were....SKY HIGH. I figured I was locked in with those for thirty years. BUT....lucky for me.....as the Regan tax cuts hit and interest rates jumped down.....my bonds paying over 10%....went CRAZY. I was forced to cash them in when I looked at their current value versus what I would get at the end of 30 years. I basically got my 30 year money WAY EARLY. Of course it helped that my broker.....Merrill Lynch....got into some sort of a bind and out of the blue my broker called wanting to buy my zero coupons. The premium he was willing to pay was way above their value......and I took full advantage of it.....jacking up the price for each bond, as we negotiated...... higher and higher...... once I saw that he was just going along with any figure I threw out there. At the end he was just about crying on the phone.
I assume this is what was going on with Merrill Lynch and my zero coupons. This is from.....AI. "In about 1985–1986, Merrill Lynch was motivated to buy back the zero-coupon Treasury Investment Growth Receipts (TIGRs) it had previously created and sold because the U.S. government had launched its own superior "STRIPS" program. The STRIPS program made Merrill's proprietary TIGRs obsolete, and as interest rates fell, the value of the underlying assets for TIGRs rose dramatically, creating a dangerous arbitrage opportunity. The creation of TIGRs In the early 1980s, Merrill Lynch and other investment banks pioneered the zero-coupon bond business by "stripping" the principal and interest payments from U.S. Treasury bonds and reselling them as new securities. Merrill Lynch's zero-coupon product was called a Treasury Investment Growth Receipt (TIGR). It was based on an underlying Treasury bond held in a trust. TIGRs were attractive to investors who wanted to lock in a return for a specific future date, like a college tuition payment or retirement. The obsolescence caused by STRIPS In 1985, the U.S. Treasury introduced its own program for creating zero-coupon securities, called Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS). STRIPS were a direct obligation of the U.S. government, offering the highest level of security. In contrast, TIGRs were backed by the underlying Treasury bonds but still carried a minor degree of counterparty risk from Merrill Lynch. STRIPS quickly replaced TIGRs as the market standard for zero-coupon Treasuries, rendering Merrill Lynch's product obsolete. The disastrous consequences of falling interest rates With the launch of the STRIPS program, Merrill Lynch stopped issuing TIGRs. However, millions of dollars worth of TIGRs remained in the market. The years 1985 and 1986 saw a sharp decline in interest rates. A fundamental characteristic of zero-coupon bonds is their extreme sensitivity to interest rate changes; when rates fall, their market value rises significantly. As the value of the TIGRs rose, a critical arbitrage opportunity emerged. The combined market value of the individual TIGRs created from a specific Treasury bond exceeded the market value of the un-stripped bond. Arbitrageurs began buying up the more expensive TIGRs to assemble a complete set of a bond's stripped components. They could then use the newly implemented federal program to "reconstitute" these components into the original, whole Treasury bond, which was worth less. Merrill Lynch had an obligation to redeem these reconstructed bonds at their new, higher market price. By buying back the outstanding TIGRs, Merrill Lynch could proactively close this arbitrage loophole and mitigate its potential losses." M COMMENT I think this was the reason for their desperation to buy back my ZERO COUPONS. It was crazy.....I just about got full 30 year value.....in just a few years. This event and the funding it provided in my KEOGH ACCOUNT was a big financial turning point for us.
In the case above....AI....has now solved a mystery for me. I always wondered why Merrill Lynch was so outrageously desperate to buy back my zero coupon bonds. Way to go....."AI".....you are actually smart once in a while.
I am positive that the thirty year ZERO COUPON product that I had was the Merrill Lynch TIGR. They were my personal broker and also broker for my Keogh Account. I had just started my own business in about August of 1982...before this I was a busines owner with a number of partners..........and pushed real hard to put the maximum in my Keogh account for 1982, 1983, and 1984. That maximum was $30,000 per year. So I had $90,000 in those products.....at EXTREME interest rates....over 10%. My wife and I figured that even if the business failed....WORST CASE SITUATION.........we would at least have our retirement secured. We probably had less than $5,000 in our personal brokerage account.....which basically represented our entire net worth outside the Keogh Account..... since we were pushing to get the max into the Keogh account. We were both in our early 30's. We did own a house....which we bought for $92,000 in 1978.....but had little equity....since the extreme interest rates had killed the housing market. On a different topic.....we wanted to move to water-front property in about 1981......it took us over three years.......January 1985..... to sell that $92,000 house due to the real estate market collapse. When it did sell we made NOTHING.....but we did get to move to a great low bank saltwater-front property with 7 acres on the Puget Sound with a three bedroom historic farm-house ($320,000). This was one of the three times we sold...or tried to sell a house.....in the middle of a real estate crash. We avoided having to qualify for a loan by buying the $92,000 home above on a "Real Estate Contract" held by the owner. Sellers were doing this as a way to push the sale of their house.....in a time of extreme market collapse. I remember that after we got that money from Merrill Lynch for those zero coupons.....and being in our early 30's.....we knew that we were set for retirement with that huge amount of money able to compound for the next 30+ years.....even if we never put any more in. At that point we started to focus on our taxable brokerage account....trying to build it up. We did well and grew the account. Than in 1987....we got hammered by the....BLACK MONDAY collapse. We were lucky that during all this time the business was taking off and we were making really BIG money......especially between 1985 to 1990. AND...of course it was in about 1990....that our next.....GREAT.....financial event occurred with our.....life-changing.... investment in MSFT. AND....1990....was the year we bought our....5th....house for $720,000 and moved to the Redmond area....east of Seattle and home of Microsoft.
As to the above....it is very interesting to look back over the past 50+ years and see all the critical points where things happened and decisions were made that determined our future. In hindsight....somewhat SCARY......or.....was it all a dream?
Another one.....good news for the markets.....and the world. Trump finalizes Japan trade deal with 15% tariffs as Ishiba faces discontent from within party https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/trum-japan-trade-deal-tariffs-ishiba-ldp-party.html "Key Points Tokyo agreed to invest $550 billion in projects selected by the U.S. government, and ramping up purchases of American agricultural products. Washington will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, along with separate sector-specific levies. Analysts at Eurasia Group suggested in a report Friday that Ishiba was unlikely to survive a challenge from within the party next Monday."
I TOTALLY agree especially in terms of the discussion of......LEADERSHIP. The typical corporation these days with their glad-handing, celebrity, CEO....is joke. It is all an illusion....there is ZERO leadership. MANAGEMENT is the key in any company. It is the source of all fundamental business results and success. A RARE thing. Palantir: Never Doubt Leadership Like This (Rating Upgrade) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4819410-palantir-never-doubt-leadership-like-this-rating-upgrade (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Summary Palantir is a standout world-class long-term compounder. Treating it like a trading mechanism is foolish, and I see that now. After selling my stake in July with a massive 67% return since March, I'm now buying back upon further analysis. You have to look past the valuation. The company's price should be assessed relative to sentiment and changes to fundamental growth. Any other method misses the forest for the trees. This is a "high-risk" investment that in reality is moderate risk due to the quality of the company's leadership and the secular growth horizon. Since my last Palantir (PLTR) analysis, the stock has gained 11.5% in price. In my last analysis, I sold my position. In this piece, I've bought it back, at double the weight as before. Sometimes it takes time to know what's right for you. First things first. We should tackle the elephant in the room. Almost every analyst is talking about Palantir's valuation (they have been for three years). "It's too high," "hold." However, any student of this game that knows how to win in real life understands that a stock price tomorrow doesn't care about the market's feelings today. Let me say that a bit clearer: what the market thinks is correct today, is not what is going to happen a year from now, or a decade from now. More simply: people (even professionals) are often very wrong. So what is it about Palantir that makes it stand out and allows it to defy the natural order of things? Why can this company trade at a forward P/E ratio of nearly 250 and still go up, while other companies wouldn't last months or even days at that valuation? The answer is in the leadership. Visionary Leadership Begets Durable Ultra-Premium Valuations There are two pivotal figures that stand out in Palantir's leadership that define the current return longevity. There are clearly others, I have heard some speak at length, and the whole team ought to be given credit. But first of all, let's recognize the immeasurable influence of Peter Thiel—quite possibly one of the greatest technology investors of all time. As one of the founders, Thiel is also Chairman of the Board, a role he has had since co-founding the company in 2003. Admittedly, Thiel isn't in Palantir's offices making product decisions, but he has the ear of Alex Karp, the company's famous CEO. He is the second pivotal figure I allude to, and we'll get to him in just a moment. Thiel's network in U.S. politics and defense circles is second to none in Silicon Valley—to be clear, Thiel has always framed Palantir as a company defending Western civilization against external threats, and Palantir has developed a de facto reputation for aligning with U.S. and allied geopolitical interests. This doesn't just help the company's government-related revenue growth, it also improves commercial strategy given that Fortune 500 CEOs benefit from lower-risk adoption from a compliance and political standpoint. I believe Thiel is a visionary, and he is guiding Palantir with a second-to-none vision in its field. The fundamentals match this vision (a 30–40% long-term forward EPS and revenue CAGR on consensus is elite by almost all standards). Karp has also operationally and managerially embodied the founder-led contrarianism that the company was established on—not doing what is popular, but doing what is right (and what works). Field-deployed engineering (also known by the company by the role of Forward Deployed Engineer), whereby Palantir deploys its staff onto customer sites, also proves the hands-on attitude that separates Palantir from your typical technology development and consultancy company. In this way, Palantir acts more like a military intelligence division, and the market pays not only for the results of this lean, agile operating model, but also for the narrative of its direction under Karp operationally and Thiel meta-operationally. Remove or weaken either narrator, and the current valuation multiples would not realistically be sustained until the processes prove they can carry the story (that would mean much slower and less visionary stock price growth, not to mention lower company morale—so the flywheel between strong leadership and operational excellence is indispensable). Palantir's Valuation Is Fundamentally Sustainable When valuing Palantir, I've argued for a long time that it's truly useless to attempt peer analysis and intrinsic value analysis, as you will be missing the sustainable sentiment-driven returns that we have witnessed over the past few years and will likely continue to witness for the foreseeable future. Instead, buying and holding Palantir at a reasonable sentiment-derived valuation based on near-term averages is enough of a gauge to secure alpha. With a company as strong as this with recurring 30–40% top and bottom line annual growth rates on consensus moving forward, you don't need to overthink it. This is a world-class company that is set for enduring alpha as fundamentals continue to compound aggressively upwards, and the high valuation multiples will simply drag on total annual returns rather than cause severe contraction (the business model is too resilient for a major crisis to cause indefinite downside, though there is always the potential for the improbable to become manifest). PLTR One-Day Intervals Price Chart (Rodzianko's Chart) As you can see from the above chart, PLTR is trading just along the 50-day moving average with an RSI of about 50. This indicates that the stock is essentially fairly valued right now from a sentiment perspective. Given this fair valuation and the durability of ~30% fundamental growth in the medium to long term (5–10 years), we can rationally assume a 30% CAGR for this stock over the long term. This leans slightly more bullish than my prior research, and there is the risk of valuation multiple compression if growth even slightly moderates, but the low end of the rational spectrum of return potential is about a 20% long-term price CAGR, with 30% the base case and 40% the bull. That's an incredibly rich return horizon, and it makes me wonder, why not own PLTR? Three crucial elements validate the fundamental return horizon: Firstly, Palantir has Net Dollar Retention of ~128%, meaning existing customers expand ~28% annually. New logos only need to add 2–12% to hit 30–40%. Secondly, Palantir's AI Bootcamps are compressing adoption to five days, pulling total contract value, billings, and revenue in faster. Thirdly, U.S. commercial revenue grew +93% year-over-year in Q2 2025, which signals a remarkable transfer of government credibility into enterprise adoption. Sustained U.S. commercial outperformance validates scalability. Risks To Thesis There are many micro risks that attentive analysts can uncover, but I'm a believer in paying attention to detail but not losing direction because of imperfections. Palantir's macro direction, and the positioning of its stock, is certainly elite. The stock trades at ~90x forward sales with a ~250x forward P/E. That valuation assumes flawless execution and means that any slip like growth slowdown, contract conversion lag, a hiring bottleneck, or hyperscaler encroachment, could very easily lead to multiple compression, substantially slowing the stock price CAGR (in a tail-risk worst-case scenario, to below 20% annually). This is a high-risk investment to some because the company's valuation is essentially trading at the moment on a one-strike policy (in theory). That means a small execution miss could lead to a large repricing. In reality, those who fear such an event miss the magnitude of Palantir's lead, network moat, and structural development trajectory, let alone its leadership (the defining factor of this thesis). Additionally, the Army Enterprise Agreement of "up to $10 billion over 10 years" is a maximum cap, not committed spending. Realized revenue only comes from funded task orders, but the AI adoption trajectory is so strong that I find it unlikely that these caps won't be substantially exhausted. However, historical precedent shows that big government contracts like these for other companies are not intended to reach the full amount. Palantir itself admits in its filings that the big contract values it reports assume every option gets used, which rarely happens. The equity is trading like ceilings are backlogged, but the nuance here suggests there's a value premium more tied to narrative right now than structurally defined fundamental growth. I'm not saying that growth won't materialize; I think it will, but you still have to realize you're still paying heavily for long-term narrative at this stage and at this valuation. Personally, I don't have a problem with that; bring it on. Conclusion: Strong Buy Palantir stock is high-risk and high-reward, but if you're seeking world-class returns, that's what you want. At least, in the case of Palantir, the perception is that the stock is high-risk, but in reality, because of the quality of leadership and the secular AI growth trajectory, we're really looking at a moderate-risk investment with probable high alpha. Often you can look at management as one of the first proxies for long-term company success, and in this instance, the flags are all green. Look past the valuation; Palantir is worth long-term holding, and I see that now." MY COMMENT Apparently now a convert to PLTR.......as am I. In fact I am now sounding like ZUKODANY used to on this stock. Yes there is risk....but what is risk free....nothing worth owning. AND....I do agree it is the LEADERSHIP.....visionary leadership....that motivates and drives that is the HUGE difference with this company.
HERE is another well reasoned little article that I like. Palantir’s wild valuation flags hyper-prime status https://www.reuters.com/commentary/...aluation-flags-hyper-prime-status-2025-09-02/ MY COMMENT I find it interesting that these two articles show that the analyst and business community is starting to get on board the PLTR train.
