The Long Term Investor

Looks like a massive market move to the RED. ALL the big averages. No doubt MSFT, NVDA, and PLTR are big contributors.

In addition the media is also HYPING the jobs report. I am sure we will soon see the typical...."canned".....articles on RECESSION and ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. BALONEY.

BUT......like Smokie above....I will have my $10,000 dividend to invest soon. I can use a nice discount.

The short term seems to be becoming more and more erratic. At least that is my....."feeling". I am sure this is making some investors concerned and jumpy. The markets "seem" to be disconnected from earnings and now IRRATIONAL. I think this is leading to profit taking as investors are giving in to some of the.....FEAR.

 

I am on auction watch today....for a friend. My friend is on vacation right now. He is interested in some historic artist sketch books that are in an auction today. The artist that made the sketch books is deceased and routinely collected.

I am bidding for him and he will pay me back when he returns. At this point it looks like his odds of winning the items is slim.

 

If you are trying to buy a house the rates are looking real good right now.

Mortgage rates see biggest one-day drop in over a year

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/mortgage-rates-drop.html

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 16 basis points to 6.29% Friday.

PLUS...it looks like we might see at least 1 and perhaps 2-3 FED cuts this year.

 

Another week done with a large loss for me. Only three stocks in the green.....COST, HD, and GOOGL. I also lost out to the SP500 today by....1.02%.

Moving on.

 

The week that was.

DOW year to date +7.10%
DOW five days (-0.42%)

SP500 year to date +10.44%
SP500 five days (-0.12%)

NASDAQ 100 year to date +12.90%
NASDAQ 100 five days +0.25%

NASDAQ year to date +12.55%
NASDAQ five days +0.32%

RUSSELL year to date +7.14%
RUSSELL five days +0.42%

As for me.....I ended the week with my entire portfolio at a year to date of......+17.24%. Last week it was at.....+17.85%.

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

 

Looks like some of my companies had a good week.....but....not good enough to save me from a small loss for the week.

Google leads monster week for tech, pushing megacaps to combined $21 trillion in market cap

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/tech-megacaps-worth-market-cap.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Alphabet and Apple shares rallied following a favorable decision for Google in the remedies portion of the antitrust case.
• Broadcom got a big boost from a new $10 billion customer.
• Add it up and tech’s eight billion-dollar companies added more than $400 billion in combined value and now make up over 36% of the S&P 500.

From the courtroom to the boardroom, it was a big week for tech investors.

The resolution of Google’s antitrust case led to sharp rallies for Alphabet
and Apple. Broadcom shareholders cheered a new $10 billion customer. And Tesla’s
stock was buoyed by a freshly proposed pay package for CEO Elon Musk.


Add it up, and the U.S. tech industry’s eight trillion-dollar companies gained a combined $420 billion in market cap this week, lifting their total value to $21 trillion, despite a slide in Nvidia shares.

Those companies now account for roughly 36% of the S&P 500, a proportion so great by historical standards that Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told CNBC by email, “there are no comparisons.”

There was a certain irony to this week’s gains.

Alphabet’s 9% jump on Wednesday was directly tied to the U.S. government effort to diminish the search giant’s market control, which was part of a years-long campaign to break up Big Tech. Since 2020, Google, Apple, Amazon and Meta
have all been hit with antitrust allegations by the Department of Justice or Federal Trade Commission.

A year ago, Google lost to the DOJ, a result viewed by many as the most-significant antitrust decision for the tech industry since the case against Microsoft more than two decades earlier. But in the remedies ruling this week, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta said Google won’t be forced to sell its Chrome browser despite its loss in court and instead handed down a more limited punishment, including a requirement to share search data with competitors.

The decision lifted Apple along with Alphabet, because the companies can stick with an arrangement that involves Google paying Applebillions of dollars per year to be the default search engine on iPhones. Alphabet rose more than 10% for the week and Apple added 3.2%, helping boost the Nasdaq 1.1%.

Analysts at Wedbush Securities wrote in a note after the decision that the ruling “removed a huge overhang” on Google’s stock and a “black cloud worry” that hung over Apple. Further, they said it clears the path for the companies to pursue a bigger artificial intelligence deal involving Gemini, Google’s AI models.

“This now lays the groundwork for Apple to continue its deal and ultimately likely double down on more AI related partnerships with Google Gemini down the road,” the analysts wrote.

Mehta explained that a major factor in his decision was the emergence of generative AI, which has become a much more competitive market than traditional search and has dramatically changed the market dynamics.

New players like OpenAI, Anthropic and Perplexity have altered Google’s dominance, Mehta said, noting that generative AI technologies “may yet prove to be game changers.”

On Friday, Alphabet investors shrugged off a separate antitrust matter out of Europe. The company was hit with a 2.95-billion-euro ($3.45 billion) fine from European Union regulators for anti-competitive practices in its advertising technology business.

Following Broadcom’s better-than-expected earnings report on Thursday, CEO Hock Tan told analysts that his chipmaker had secured a $10 billion contract with a new customer, which would be the company’s fourth large AI client.

Several analysts said the new customer is OpenAI, and the Financial Times reported on a partnership between the two companies.

Broadcom is the newest entrant into the trillion-dollar club, thanks to the company’s custom chips for AI, already used by Google, Meta and TikTok parent ByteDance. With Its 13% jump this week, the stock is now up 120% in the past year, lifting Broadcom’s market cap to around $1.6 trillion.

“The company is firing on all cylinders with clear line of sight for growth supported by significant backlog,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note, maintaining their buy recommendation and lifting their price target on the stock.

For the other giant AI chipmaker, the past week wasn’t so good.

Nvidia shares fell more than 4% in the holiday-shortened week, the worst performance among the megacaps. There was no apparent negative news for Nvidia, but the stock has now dropped for four consecutive weeks.

Still, Nvidia remains the largest company by market cap, valued at over $4 trillion, with its stock up 56% in the past 12 months.

Microsoft also fell this week and is on an extended slide, dropping for five straight weeks. Shares are still up 21% over the last 12 months.

On the flipside, Tesla has been the laggard in the group. Shares of the electric vehicle maker are down 13% this year due to a multi-quarter sales slump that reflects rising competition from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers and an aging lineup of EVs.

But Tesla shares climbed 5% this week, sparked mostly by gains on Friday after the company said it wants investors to approve a pay plan for Musk that could be worth up to almost $1 trillion.

The payouts, split into 12 tranches, would require Tesla to see significant value appreciation, starting with the first award that won’t kick in until the company almost doubles its market cap to $2 trillion.

Tesla Chairwoman Robyn Denholm told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin the plan was designed to keep Musk, the world’s richest person, “motivated and focused on delivering for the company.”"

MY COMMENT

I continue to slowly slide down due to MSFT, NVDA, and PLTR. That's the way the cookie crumbles.

 

It is a MIRACLE that I am lingering just below an all time high in my account. Three of my largest holdings are down for weeks now.

MSFT - Down for five weeks in a row.

NVDA - Down for four weeks in a row.

PLTR - Down for four weeks in a row (I think)

Above represents some real pent-up power for my account. When this down time breaks and the gains begin......I will definately be at a new all time high. I just hope this little dip in the above stocks does not continue for too many more weeks. If it keeps going for a few more weeks I will call it a little....STEALTH....correction.

 

Well I got the item in the auction that I was bidding on for a friend that is out of town. I was at my maximum bid......one more bid and I would have been out. But I got it at $1100.

 

I like this little article.

Moods Stay Cool Amid Warmer Summer Data
Despite solid economic data, skepticism remains.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ntary/moods-stay-cool-amid-warmer-summer-data

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"According to recent surveys, American consumers’ moods dimmed in August. Tariff-related concerns weighed on respondents’ outlooks, with many anticipating higher unemployment and accelerating inflation in the months ahead. But feelings don’t predict action—as the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA’s) latest “Personal Income and Outlays” report shows. How the latest PCE figures contrast with sentiment survey results illustrates the disconnect between the two—a bullish sign. Watch what consumers do, not what they say.

July’s real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% m/m, improving on June’s 0.1% and meeting expectations. Services spending grew 0.1% m/m, matching June’s growth, while goods spending jumped 0.9% m/m thanks to new motor vehicles purchases (7.8%).[ii] Analysts naturally attributed this to tariff front-running, with consumers snapping up big-ticket items before it gets too late.[iii] For instance, automakers are largely waiting for new model year to embed tariffs in vehicle prices—a well-known factor customers are trying to beat. US shoppers may have also been taking advantage of promotions during some big online sales events.[iv] Still, the results show consumers aren’t exactly tapped.

On the inflation front, July’s headline PCE Price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—rose 2.6% y/y, also in line with consensus estimates.[v] Services prices (3.6% y/y) sped up from June’s 3.5% rate while goods prices slowed to 0.5% from June’s 0.6%.[vi]

Looking beyond July, consumer spending has been bumpy this year. Some tariff frontrunning occurred in March, followed by a pothole in April and May—and spending may now be returning to pre-Liberation Day growth. (Exhibit 1) In contrast, the PCE price index hasn’t deviated much from its longer-running trend. (Exhibit 2)

Exhibit 1: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, August 2023 – July 2025


Source: FactSet, as of 8/29/2025

Exhibit 2: PCE Price Index, August 2023 – July 2025


Source: FactSet, as of 8/29/2025.

While the data indicate consumer spending improved in the summer and inflation stayed at prepandemic norms, people’s feelings about the economy remained dour. According to the University of Michigan’s (U-Mich’s) widely watched Surveys of Consumers, sentiment cooled across the board. The headline Index of Consumer Sentiment fell from July’s 61.7 to 58.2, as respondents’ assessment of present and future economic conditions weakened.[vii] Annual inflation expectations—both over the next year and five years—also rose.[viii] U-Mich’s survey isn’t an anomaly, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence poll worsened slightly in August, slipping -1.3 points to 97.4.[ix]

That said, August’s results aren’t outliers. U-Mich’s headline consumer sentiment index weakened through much of the year, with the sharpest dip occurring during April’s tariff uncertainty. It improved as tariffs paused, then fell again as they took effect. Time will tell if this reaction is temporary.

Interestingly, survey respondents’ views of the economy track party lines. Going back to last year, Republicans and Democrats’ outlooks flipped in November after President Donald Trump’s victory. Democrats’ opinion on the economy tanked, bottoming in the aftermath of Liberation Day. Their moods improved for a bit afterward, trending up alongside Republicans’ views until everyone got the blues in August, though Democratic sentiment remains much, much gloomier overall. (Exhibit 3)

Exhibit 3: U-Mich Sentiment Index, Headline and by Political Party


Source: University of Michigan, as of 8/29/2025. Headline Index and Index levels based on political party affiliation, July 2023 – August 2025.

To us, this shows how fickle and politicized sentiment can be—and why investors should refrain from overrating its influence over economic activity. What people tell survey takers has never been very indicative of future economic behavior; it is snapshot of how they felt when asked nebulous questions about the economy. And no single sentiment indicator or attempt to quantify feelings will be perfect. But the contrast here is telling and interesting.

More broadly for investors, these data reveal a big disconnect between sentiment and reality. Moods warmed in the earlier summer months, which squares with improving data, the tariff pause and stocks’ post-correction rebound—a reminder surveys are, at best, a coincident indicator. However, sentiment remains at deeply dour levels despite a growing economy and stocks at record highs. That consumers’ feelings are closer to 2022’s all-time lows than prepandemic levels indicates skepticism remains prevalent. (Exhibit 4)

Exhibit 4: U-Mich Sentiment Index, August 2015 – August 2025


Source: University of Michigan, as of 9/2/2025.

Tracking sentiment is more art than science, as human emotion flips fast—and is rarely uniform. And it is a mistake to treat sentiment as predictive of future behavior. Still, monitoring various measures of how people feel is worthwhile since stocks move most on the gap between expectations and reality. Economic fundamentals look solid, yet outlooks remain muted overall. We see warnings about pockets of excess, projections of future negative volatility and calls for needed support (e.g., Fed rate cuts)—all reflecting the many doubts about the bull market’s strength. That means even an ok reality can positively surprise."

MY COMMENT

I have learned not to trust "sentiment" surveys. They are usually nothing more than repetition of what the media is pushing at the time.....and NOT....reflective of what the person actually thingks regarding their....."own"... personal situation.

Like this article....I consider the above as a positive for the current long term BULL MARKET.

 

Sounds about right to me.

Wall Street’s Wealth Engine Powers Through Job-Market Anxiety

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- To American workers already anxious about their job security in the age of AI, Friday’s economic data was a gut punch: the clearest sign yet that hiring is stalling.

Yet for capital owners, it underlined a different reality. Even as jobs weaken, investors expect the Federal Reserve to shield them from the slowdown — and they’ve put hundreds of billions on the line betting that their assets will hold up.

That doesn’t mean stocks can’t falter. They slipped Friday, albeit modestly, as weaker hiring underscores the risk for corporate earnings ahead. But the setback was small. Bonds rallied, cushioning diversified portfolios, while equities remain just shy of record highs amid the strongest cross-asset run in four years.

That resilience came in spite of a Friday report that laid bare fresh strain in the real economy. Payrolls barely budged, unemployment climbed to its highest since 2021, and revisions confirmed the weakest stretch of hiring since the pandemic. Look under the hood of markets, however, and the dispiriting economic picture is hard to see: The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks has now advanced for five straight weeks and credit spreads hover at decade lows.

“For those with financial assets, real estate, they are experiencing a sense of permanence to their wealth,” said Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary. “Those at the bottom, though, they experience the income effect and are really struggling because they have no benefits of ownership.”


Rate cuts are designed to ease the burden on indebted households and support job seekers. In practice, though, the greater lift often comes through financial markets. Rising asset values cushion portfolios and sustain consumption even as wages lag.

“That boost to wealth is supporting consumption and that is what drives the economy more than anything else,” said Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., on Bloomberg Television. “That’s what eases the concern here around the slowing in the jobs market.”

A fresh analysis by the Congressional Budget Office underscores how the income divide is only set to grow. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” would strip the poorest tenth of households of about $1,200 a year, a 3.1% cut to already thin incomes, while the wealthiest 10% would collect an average boost of $13,600, or a 2.7% increase. The law redistributes resources upward, compounding the divide exposed by a labor market losing steam.

That fiscal tilt coincides with a monetary backdrop that favors asset holders as well. For many, the labor slowdown looks less like a threat than a tailwind: lower borrowing costs promise to lift portfolios and cheapen mortgages for those able to buy homes, while corporate tax breaks and earnings deductions add another layer of support. Traders are now pricing in roughly six rate cuts by the end of next year — a pivot with few precedents with inflation this sticky and equities this buoyant.


The scale of the wager is clear. Heading into Friday’s report, Wall Street was already on track for the best quarter across assets since mid-2021. Bond ETFs attracted a record $49 billion in August as traders ramped up wagers on cuts, while gold hit an all-time high on a falling dollar and renewed doubts about Fed independence.

Until recently, easing with inflation above 3% alongside an equity rally had been rare. The S&P 500 has climbed 9% over the past three months, a pre-easing run that before last year hadn’t occurred in two decades.

For some, that’s reason to worry. When the Fed began cutting rates a year ago, 10-year Treasury yields climbed a full percentage point in just four months. Now traders are wagering on a steepening curve — short-term yields pulled lower by Fed cuts, long-term yields rising on inflation concerns.

“If the long end of the curve increases when the Fed cuts the rate, you may well see a selloff in the stock market as inflation fears resurface,” said Jeff Muhlenkamp, who has increased his fund’s gold exposure. “I’ll bet gold jumps up too.”

Still, investors have been repeatedly punished for skepticism in the Trump era. Conviction has built on Wall Street that should things deteriorate, the president and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would act to prevent it. The administration famously dropped the worst of its tariff threats in April after a selloff, and many see that episode as precedent.

“It’s buy the dip mentality, which ultimately is within the fact that policy has your back,” said Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at StoneX Financial. “And every time, every cycle it reinforces itself. And that policy put resets at a higher level.”

Past monetary-easing cycles show the unevenness clearly: weaker hiring dims prospects for workers even as lower rates cushion those with capital to deploy. Along the way, wealth gaps widen — a trend accelerated by the post-pandemic equity bull run. That divide is most visible in stock ownership. While a record share of American households now hold equities, the bottom half control just $500 billion — a fraction of the $23 trillion owned by the top 1%, according to the Fed.

“Investors have been paid to ignore geopolitical risk, they have been paid to ignore all economic risk,” said Atwater. “Those at the top have no appreciation for the mounting despair that exists at the bottom.”"

MY COMMENT

I dont buy any of the negativity in the above content. I CELEBRATE the content that shows the value of being a......stake-holder.....by being an asset holder.

It has never been easier for someone to be an asset holder. All you have to do is open an account and start small by buying some shares in a SP500 ETF or other investment of your choice.

It is not an issue of....government.....or the economy being stacked against you. It is a question of....."YOU".....and your own behavior and thinking. People can and do break free of the chains and limitations that their thinking imposes every day.

If....."YOU"....are reading this thread you have already taken the first step......even if you dont own anything yet. START NOW......JUST DO IT. RESOLVE.....to put $20 a month into a SP500 ETF. RESOLVE..... to take charge of your future.

IGNORE the small amount that you might be investing as a new investor......focus on....the long term and the power of investing small amounts and the growth that will come with LONG TERM investing.

Have the VISION to see far into the future and how "YOU" will have SUCCESS if you start now....no matter how small the savings and investment.

The vast majority of us started the same way.

 

TYPICAL.

Active managers struggled ‘mightily’ to beat index funds amid volatility from elections, tariffs, Morningstar finds

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/active-funds-struggle-to-beat-index-funds.html

 

It gets really tiring with the constant data. REALLY.....could we just release this stuff once per quarter? I know....the answer is no. Here is the week to come.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures gain after weak jobs report with key inflation data on deck

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...ith-key-inflation-data-on-deck-000205478.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stock futures pushed up Sunday evening as investors set their sights on inflation data in an otherwise calm first full trading week for the historically slowest month of the year.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) moved up around 0.2%, while contracts tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) climbed 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) futures made gains of about 0.4%.

Despite a pullback on Friday, the major indexes remain just shy of all-time highs. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed last week just under 1% below its record, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and Dow (^DJI) following closely behind.

This week’s spotlight will be on two key inflation reports: the producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday and the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. Together, the data will offer fresh insight into the strength of the economy and should serve as the final test on whether the Fed is on track to deliver a widely expected rate cut at its September meeting.

The reports follow a softer-than-expected August jobs print that bolstered hopes for easier monetary policy. Investors will be watching closely to see if inflation trends line up with that narrative, potentially clearing the path for stocks to extend their record-setting run."

MY COMMENT

That is about it this week. Another week of basically NOTHING going on. Earnings are basically over and it appears that we are LOCKED IN for a rate cut in a few weeks.

 

Not a bad open today for the big averages and for....."me". Five of my eight stocks green. My red at the moment is AAPL, COST, and HD. I am being carried by big tech so far at the open.

WHATEVER.