The Long Term Investor

YES....I agree....I would LOVE to see earnings every six months. In the old days....it was.....ANNUAL REPORTS.

In the old days you would get a glossy, printed report in the mail if you were a shareholder. I remember my mom going to the library to look up annual reports on companies.

 

I celebrate this recent data.

China's economy slumps in August, casts doubt on growth target

https://www.reuters.com/world/china...-august-casts-doubt-growth-target-2025-09-15/

Of course....I will NEVER..... invest in some FAKE government controlled company from China.

 

As a shareholder I love it.

Alphabet hits $3 trillion in market capitalization for first time

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-hits-3-trillion-market-140719736.html

 

LOL......as if Wall Street is some big cohesive whole. Many of us....."abandoned" this....about 6 months ago by never buying into the BS to begin with.

Wall Street All But Abandons Its Trade Angst as Rate Cuts Near

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-abandons-trade-angst-093000615.html

 

Strong general markets going on today.

Stocks rise after Trump’s positive comments on China trade talks, gain in Tesla

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks edged higher Monday after President Donald Trump said that U.S.-China trade negotiations were going well. Investors also braced for a key Federal Reserve meeting this week.

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record, up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite also advanced to a new all-time high, trading 0.4% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 59 points, or 0.2%.

Top U.S. and Chinese officials for a second day discussed tariff rates and the imminent deadline for a divestment of Chinese-owned social media TikTok. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the meeting between officials had been positive and that a deal “was also reached on a ‘certain’ company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save,” potentially referring to TikTok. The U.S. will go ahead on its TikTok ban if China does not let go of its demands for reduced tariffs and tech restrictions, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a a senior U.S. official with knowledge of negotiations.

As talks between the countries continued, China’s market regulator said Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law and that it would continue its probe into the chipmaker. Nvidia shares dropped 1.8%.

Tesla shares jumped 7% after CEO Elon Musk disclosed an insider purchase of the stock worth about $1 billion, his largest buy in the open market ever and his first significant purchase since 2020. Traders took the buy as a vote of confidence by Musk in the company, which is attempting to turn its focus towards robotics as electric vehicle competition has intensified.

Monday’s gains come after the latest economic data showing a weakening labor market and tame inflation spurred hopes the Fed will cut interest rates when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. The market was last pricing in a 96% certainty that the central bank will lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, with a meager 3.6% likelihood of a steeper half percentage point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Lower rates could continue to support the stock market, which has received a boost from investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, and despite risks to the economic outlook. Investors will also be watching the Senate to see if Stephen Miran will be sworn in as a Fed governor in time for this week’s FOMC meeting."

MY COMMENT

A good day for the markets in general.....os far after only about 1.5 hours. In the current investing world....especially on Wall Street....1.5 hours is probably considered long term. In my world....long term is about 3-7 years.....and beyond.

 

YES....we should obviously throw NVDA under the bus to save.....TIKTOK. I mean....come on....where are your priorities. How could we possibly survive without TikTok?

BUT....what do I know...I dont do social media.

 

HERE is more on this critical international issue.

Bessent: TikTok deal ‘framework’ reached with China, Trump and Xi will finalize it Friday

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/trump-tiktok-china.html

"Key Points

• The U.S. and China have reached a “framework” deal for TikTok, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from discussions in Madrid.
• The Trump administration faced a Sept. 17 deadline to either divest TikTok’s U.S. business or shut down.
• President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Friday to discuss the terms."

MY COMMENT

THANK GOD.....we are saved. It is critical to the USA.....and especially for TikTok users....to be dumbed-down.... spied on..... and have all their data shipped right to the Chinese communist government.

Yes....I am old and dont understand.

And.....younger readers....dont worry....I really dont care if you use and enjoy TikTok. It is your individual choice and I am a true believer in liberty in life......freedom to choose to do what you wish.

 

I currently have four stocks green and four stocks red today. Thank you China.....for my few hours loss in NVDA.

 

OK....that is about it so far for a.....MEANINGLESS MONDAY. The real market action will come after the FED cut. Although I am not necessarily expecting some big dramatic rally.......the cut is totally baked in.

What the first cut will do is give us a pathway to the second and third cuts which will probably come this year and will be very positive for the economy and especially business earnings. AND....these cuts will carry us to the new year and the appointment of a new FED chair.

My preference would be to not even have a FED trying to guide the economy at all. Let natural market forces simply control supply, demand, wages. labor, productivity and everything else. BUT....yes....I know this is not remotely possible with all the other impact of government on our economy.

 

LOL....Smokie. I was thinking the same thing about an hour ago. What if FED day came and the FED did nothing.

It would be hilarious. It would be just about worth it to see all the sputtering and back-stepping from all the experts. The media would be apocalyptic.

You and I must have some sort of devilish predisposition to even think of such a thing and think it would be funny.

 

Since nothing is really going on today in the markets....I guess I will go and look at the college football scores.

 

Lucky for me the losses in COST, PLTR, and NVDA today were minimal....so I still ended with a nice medium gain in my stocks. I also beat the SP500 by 0.16% today.

A nice start to a week that has....good potential for us investors.

 

Think of how many, many, times recently we have heard the opposite pushed in the......BS media.

US retail sales beat expectations in August; weakening labor market dims outlook

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-124327324.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, but momentum could ease amid labor market weakness and rising goods prices because of tariffs on imports.

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% advance in July, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.2% following a previously reported 0.5% gain in June.

Some of the rise in retail sales last month was probably due to tariff-driven price increases rather than volumes.

The government reported last week that consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August, with strong rises in the costs of food and apparel among other products. The struggling labor market, characterized by meager job gains and rising unemployment as companies hold off hiring because of an uncertain economic outlook, poses a risk to consumer spending.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut on Wednesday to support the labor market. The U.S. central bank paused its easing cycle in January because of uncertainty over the inflationary impact of import duties.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.5% advance in July. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

PULLBACK IN SPENDING IS EXPECTED

"While there is underlying resilience, consumption is slowing," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. "Households still generally have the means to spend, but growing concerns over the labor market suggest that we will likely see a pullback in the pace of spending growth for the remainder of the year."

A survey from the New York Fed on Monday showed household spending, unadjusted for inflation, slipped in August to the lowest level in nearly 4-1/2 years on a year-over-year basis.

Still, more people continued to buy electronics, home appliances, furniture, homes and vehicles as well as undertake home repairs and go on vacations.

Similarly, a Bank of America Institute survey found lower-income households were being impacted the most by the labor market weakness, with their after-tax wages and salaries increasing in August at the slowest pace since 2016.

Bank of America Institute also noted that spending growth was the weakest among younger people and those born between 1965 and 1980, commonly referred to as Generation X.

"The weakening labor market appears to be impacting younger people, particularly because changing jobs no longer results in as big of a pay bump," it said."

MY COMMENT

A very strange article. A HUGE jump in retail activity and a good revision for July.....are briefly mentioned. Than in typical style the article spends the rest of it's time.....with...... "BUT, this or that". Or......"YET, blah, blah,blah". Or....'such and such is expected'....blah, blah, blah.

BOTTOM LINE......wrong again.....there is no evidence of a consumer or retail pull-back. BUMMER for the always wrong fear-mongers.

 

I like this little article.

Weekly Market Pulse: Nuance Is Subtle

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-nuance-is-subtle/?src=news

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The origin of the word nuance is a Latin word, “nubes”, which means cloud. It is also from the French “nuer” which means “to shade”. Why am I parsing the meaning and origin of the word nuance? Because we seem to have lost the ability to recognize subtle – or even not so subtle – differences today; there are no shades of gray. Last week’s commentary generated quite a few comments along the lines of “Joe sure is bearish”, when what I actually said is that the economy continues to slow, which is not even close to “I’m bearish” (on stocks I guess, since people weren’t real clear about what I’m supposedly bearish on). The slowing of the US economy is a fact that investors must deal with, not something that is prospective, that might happen. It’s already happened and that is the reality for investors. What it means for stocks or bonds or commodities or gold or any other asset is not some universal bullish or bearish thing. A slowing economy might be positive for Treasury bonds and negative for junk bonds, positive for gold and negative for oil. To say, the economy is slowing and I’m bearish is to be focused on a tree – one tree – while completely ignoring the forest all around you.

I know, of course, that the commenters’ bearish take was about stocks but even if a slowing economy could be negative for stocks, it doesn’t mean it must be negative for stocks. How many times have I written in these weekly commentaries (that I’ve been writing now for almost 20 years) that “the economy is not the stock market and the stock market is not the economy”? In fact, as I’ve pointed out numerous times in the past , stocks and the economy are actually negatively correlated. Everyone knows that they should “buy low, sell high” but when faced with a recession and falling stock prices, most investors are unable to do the former and in a bull market are usually way too quick to try and do the latter.

Investing is not black and white, bullish or bearish, all or none; it is all, yes, nuance. For instance, I have said that tariffs are a net negative for the US – and global – economy. That does not mean, as some of my email correspondents claim, that I believe the tariffs of the Trump administration will cause a recession. There is nothing controversial at all about my views on tariffs. Tariffs, among other things:

1. Distort consumption and reduce consumer choice by raising the price of imports
2. They invite retaliation by other countries that reduce our exports
3. They raise the price of imported inputs making it more difficult and expensive to manufacture in the US
4. They reduce the competitiveness of domestic companies
5. They stifle innovation in protected industries
6. They increase the tax burden on US consumers and importers
7. They invite corruption as companies and industries lobby Congress for exceptions to the tariffs
8. They favor large corporations – who can afford #7 – over small and mid-sized companies

Tariffs are not a positive for the economy – and yes I understand that there may be national security concerns where tariffs might be appropriate but universal tariffs don’t even fit that bill – but that doesn’t mean that current economic policy will push us into recession. You have to know what you don’t know, you have to consider the full panoply of current economic policies. Will the positives of the tax and spending bill passed this year be sufficient to offset the fiscal drag of the tariffs (yes fiscal, tariffs are a tax hike)? There are plenty of firms out there who will tell you, enthusiastically, that the answer is yes and plenty of others who will tell you, equally enthusiastically, that, no, they won’t. My answer is that I don’t know but I know those offsets exist:

Detroit’s Carmakers to Save Billions in Trump Emissions Rollback
Bloomberg article, September 7, 2025

All forms of industrial policy distort the decisions made by companies. In this article, we read that US automakers are cutting electric vehicle production – which the Biden administration favored with tax incentives – and increasing production of gas vehicles – which the Trump administration favors by cutting emissions standards. GM and Ford have both been spending billions on regulatory credits (bought from Tesla primarily) that they now won’t need. That will offset some of the impact of the tariffs but probably not all. The net impact of the two polices – tariffs and emissions standards – are probably still negative but less so than if the emissions standards were not changed. Combined with some other aspects of the tax bill, the overall impact of current economic policy may be close to neutral in the short term but we can’t say that for sure. Tariffs will still cause the problems I outlined above and the longer they are held in place the more negative they become, but in the immediate future there may be enough offset from other policies to make the overall financial impact benign. Maybe. For now.

Stock prices are a function of future earnings, which in turn are a function of economic growth, so, yes I do get concerned when the economy slows. But the degree and length of the slowing matters and those are things we cannot predict; we just have to wait to see how they play out. We do get signals from the markets about future growth such as the trend of interest rates, the yield curve, credit spreads, and the trend of the US dollar. We have to take all of those things into account, acknowledging that market prices exhibit the wisdom of crowds but also that crowds can, at times, be pretty stupid.

Right now, earnings expectations for the S&P 500 – “the market” – look pretty good and have actually improved slightly in recent weeks. Q2 earnings were very good, up over 11% from Q1 and 10% from the same quarter a year ago. Expectations for Q3, which is nearly over, are for a further gain of almost 5% from Q2 and over 13% from the same quarter in 2024. Full year 2025 earnings are expected to rise by almost 11% and another 17% in 2026. Will that prove correct? That probably depends on how this slowdown resolves itself. If the economy continues to slow and falls into recession then probably not. I’m highlighting the weakening economy because if it continues, it could have a big impact on markets – stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, and plenty of other assets.

How much of that 2026 earnings surge is already priced in? With the S&P 500 trading at nearly 22 times that 2026 estimate, the answer might be quite a lot which makes the market very vulnerable to further economic weakness. But anything that threatens that rate of earnings growth is going to negatively impact stock prices. What else might do the trick? How about a disappointment in the development of Artificial Intelligence? A lot of the earnings and current stock prices of the largest US companies are dependent on AI raising productivity growth, perhaps by a lot. Will it? Good question and I don’t have a great answer but I think there are signs that it may not be as revolutionary as the hype suggests. The pharmaceutical/biotech industry embraced AI as a research tool well over a decade ago and predicted that it would make drug discovery a much more accurate process – it would raise productivity. The fact is that, at least so far, there has not been one drug approved that was discovered as a result of AI.

Of course, those weren’t large language models the pharma industry was using so it isn’t necessarily a predictor for this latest wave of hype but it does suggest that investors ought to be a little more skeptical of the efficiency gains predicted by all the tech bros. And you probably want to remember that those promoting AI have a vested interest in your believing it is the magic elixir of future economic nirvana.

Investing is not about making big bold predictions and big bold portfolio changes. It is about nuance and making incremental changes. Right now, after a big run in stocks, merely rebalancing your portfolio back to your strategic allocation would reduce your risk from a slowing economy (and if you don’t know what a strategic allocation is you need to call us). Or you could do some tax loss harvesting – although after a bull run like this you might not have much in the way of tax losses to harvest – and just hold the proceeds in cash. Or you could trim some of your big winners and wait to reinvest. Nuance. Get some."

MY COMMENT

I dont agree with much of this article....especially on tariffs. But the general content is BOLD......yes.

 

Looks like about a 2.7% raise for those of us on Social Security for 2026.

Social Security beneficiaries expected to get bigger cost-of-living-adjustment in 2026
Average monthly benefit for retired workers would increase by $54 from $2,008 to $2,062

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...ted-get-bigger-cola-amid-persistent-inflation

 

And speaking of always being wrong.....as usual.

US manufacturing output unexpectedly rises on rebound in motor vehicle production

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-unexpectedly-rises-140415805.html

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. factory production unexpectedly increased in August amid a rebound in the output of motor vehicles and some nondurable goods, though tariffs continued to cast a shadow over the manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in July, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production for the sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy, would slip 0.2% following a previously reported unchanged reading in July."

MY COMMENT

BUMMER for all the economists and others that are pushing for a RECESSION. NOT going to happen. the KEY word above....."unexpectedly". Why? Why is it never "expected"? How can all these people with big degrees and reputations be so wrong....all the time.