Another take.....that is a bit more accurate. Jobs Are Weak And Prices Are High, But Consumers Kept Spending in August https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-weak-prices-high-consumers-141251645.html “The spending was rather broad-based as consumers even spent generously on discretionary goods such as those related to hobbies and recreation and restaurants and bars,” wrote Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic."
Ten year yield is still lingering just outside the 3% range.....at 4.03%. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
The markets are drifting in meaningless action....waiting for the FED. S&P 500 slips from record high ahead of Fed rate decision https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Stocks wavered on Tuesday as investors monitored the latest on global trade discussions and a highly-awaited Federal Reserve meeting. "The broad market index traded 0.1% lower, after hitting a fresh record earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 94 points, or 0.2%. Oracle shares gained 4% after the cloud infrastructure platform was reported to be part of the firms that will enable TikTok to keep operating in the U.S., sources confirmed to CNBC’s David Faber. Details about the deal on the social media platform come after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the U.S. and China have reached a “framework” deal for TikTok, just days ahead of a Wednesday deadline to either divest TikTok’s U.S. business or shut down the social media app in the country. Investors remain on edge about the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in November. Bessent said during a CNBC interview on Tuesday that he expects further talks to happen before that deadline, and that “the Chinese now sense that a trade deal is possible” after U.S. and Chinese officials concluded two days of talks on Monday. President Donald Trump also gave a positive description of the trade discussions on Monday, which led U.S. stocks to rally and pushed the S&P 500 to close above 6,600 for the first time. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Monday that trade discussions had been “deferred” to another time, however, given the intense focus on TikTok. Traders also awaited a policy decision from the Federal Reserve, which kicked off a two-day meeting on Tuesday. Fed funds futures pricing in a 100% likelihood of at least a quarter-point rate cut, per CME’s FedWatch tool. Yet traders will still closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference for any clues on the future of monetary policy. The meeting comes after the Senate confirmed President Donald Trump’s pick to join the central bank, Stephen Miran." MY COMMENT The meaningless......short term.
What a DISASTER. Easy come, easy go. When it comes to money and hanging onto it.....there are never any guarantees.....when you are dealing with human behavior and frailties. How much is Charlie Sheen really worth today? From TV’s highest-paid actor to financial struggles: reports In 2010, actor reportedly earned $1.8M per episode of "Two and a Half Men" https://www.foxbusiness.com/enterta...ighest-paid-actor-financial-struggles-reports "While Sheen's exact net worth is not clear, one estimate puts the figure at $3 million — a steep decline from the $150 million he reportedly amassed when he starred on "Two and a Half Men," which aired from 2003 to 2015, according to Celebrity Net Worth."
A medium loss for me today. Only two stocks in the green.....AMZN and AAPL. I also lost out to the SP500 today by.....0.67%. A worthless day as we wait for the FED tomorrow.
FED rate cut today. it is about time and it is a good way to drive a very stealth and long term boost to business and the markets. BUT.....I dont expect any big dramatic impact on stocks. The impact will be slow to see and will probably not be very noticeable. I think that after today the cut will be quickly forgotten and we will not see anything different going on in the markets. The event is totally expected in the markets and as a result will happen and be immediately forgotten. What will matter will be if we can get at least 2 and perhaps 3 cuts this year and a FED that is open to doing more cuts if needed next year. Over time these cuts will help the bull market....but short term....just another media circus....that will be quickly forgotten.
Today will probably be another wasted day for long term investors. Either a down general market or a drifting do-nothing market. I see NO immediate magic to the sure to happen little FED cut. Here is what little is going on in the markets today. Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq steady as Wall Street braces for Fed decision https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...street-braces-for-fed-decision-230515767.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks held broadly steady on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve's policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest rate cut of 2025. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) nudged about 0.1% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up nearly 0.4%. The moves come after the major US gauges ended Tuesday little changed. Investors are keeping their powder dry in anticipation that the Fed will start the switch to easing, a move hinted at last month by Chair Jerome Powell. A labor market slowdown is expected to convince policymakers to pivot toward rate cuts, despite an uptick in inflation. Traders are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 4% chance of a bigger move when the decision arrives at 2:00 p.m. ET. The bigger question for Wall Street is how many more cuts could be on the way. The hunt for clues will focus on the "dot-plot" of predictions from each Fed official, as well as on Powell's remarks at a press conference 30 minutes after the rate announcement. The decision comes amid growing concerns over the central bank's independence. While President Trump has lambasted Powell, he may soon be able to exert more direct influence over policymakers. The Senate confirmed his nominee to the Fed on Monday, enabling Stephen Miran to vote this week. At the same time, Lisa Cook took part in the policy decision after an appeals court rebuffed Trump's attempt to oust the Fed governor. On other fronts, MBA data showed the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage sank to its lowest since October 2024, while refinancing applications spiked almost 60% to their highest since March 2022. On the corporate front, China has told its biggest tech companies including Alibaba not to buy the Nvidia (NVDA) AI chip tailor-made for the country, effectively banning tens of thousands of orders, the Financial Times reported. Nvidia shares slipped 2.2%. General Mills (GIS) quarterly sales topped estimates, but shares slipped after the Cheerios maker warned of a challenging consumer backdrop. Also on tap, Cracker Barrel (CBRL) results are in focus following controversy over its now-abandoned logo change." MY COMMENT NO.....no one is "BRACING" for the FED cut. It is more likely that everyone is snoozing through this event. The story of the day is China and their refusal to allow their companies to buy NVDA chips. This is a direct and obvious attack on the USA....by the worlds most BRUTAL communist dictatorship. Our businesses needs to wake up and not pin their hopes on China to be a reliable and trustworthy business partner. There are plenty of other places to sell chips.....we should give them what they want. NVDA has now eliminated China in their fundamental financial projections.....good. Just move on. You cant trust China in the slightest anyway. In the end they will simply counterfeit these chips....with impunity as usual.... in their own factories anyway.
Good news today. Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/mor...60percent-as-interest-rates-drop-sharply.html "Key Points The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.39% from 6.49% The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 12.9% of total applications, its highest level since 2008. The average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of the MBA’s tracking."
Nothing else going on today other than the above. The SP500 and NASDAQ are in the red. The DOW is in the green....but the gain is not really broad based. I have completed all my scanning and reading early today......with nothing to show for it. So no reason to waste any more time on the markets right now.
If it was up to me I would treat China the way they deserve and at the same time protect investors. Their economic and individual company financial data is totally fraudulent and unreliable. I would simply BAN all Chinese companies from being on any USA stock exchange or from being able to be sold or purchased here in the USA. People that think they own stock in any Chinese company are crazy anyway. They own no such thing. Chinese law prohibits it and in a crunch those shares being sold and purchased here are worthless. Of course this is just FANTASY. We are too STUPID to treat China like the ENEMY....and threat to the entire world.... that they are. Our country and our companies should be on a crash program to disconnect from China. It was a HUGE mistake to accept China into the world economic system back in the Clinton era. YES..... in 2000, the Clinton administration and Congress granted permanent normal trade relations to China. This policy removed the annual review of China's trade status and paved the way for its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. What a disaster for the world. We will be paying for this HUGE MISTAKE......for many decades to come.
Looks like the FED did their thing today. No surprise. Although, the markets have been up, down, flat, zig, and zag....since. Kind of wild watching some of the swings...lol.
As expected....and...good news for the longer term. Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-rate-decision-september-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market. In an 11-to-1 vote signaling less dissent than Wall Street had anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point. The decision puts the overnight funds rate in a range between 4.00%-4.25%. Newly-installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only policymaker voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, looked at for possible additional dissents, both voted for the 25-basis point reduction. All were appointed by President Donald Trump, who has badgered the Fed all summer to cut not merely in its traditional quarter-point moves but to lower the fed funds rate quickly and aggressively. In the post-meeting statement, the committee again characterized economic activity as having “moderated” but added language saying that “job gains have slowed” and noted that inflation “has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” Lower job growth and higher inflation are in conflict with the Fed’s twin goals of stable prices and full employment. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” the Fed statement said. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.” Stocks were volatile after the decision was released, with major averages mixed after Chair Jerome Powell characterized the cut as “risk management” rather than something more directed at shoring up a weak economy. Treasury yields also were mixed, falling on short-duration issues but up otherwise. At his post-meeting news conference, Jerome Powell echoed the concerns about the labor market. “The marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers is unusual in this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market,” he said. “The downside risks to employment appear to have risen.” Powell added that the decision to cut puts monetary policy in a “more neutral” position as opposed to previous characterizations of moderately restrictive. Along with the rate decision, officials in their closely watched “dot plot” of individual expectations pointed to two more cuts before the end of the year. The grid, however, showed a wide level of disparity, with one dot, possibly Miran’s, pointing to a total of 1.25 percentage points in additional reductions this year. The plot is done anonymously, with one dot for each meeting participant, but Miran has been an advocate for much lower rates. Nine of the 19 participants indicated just one more reduction this year, while 10 saw two, which would indicate moves at the October and December meetings. One official did not want any cuts, including Wednesday’s. “A majority of the FOMC is now targeting two further cuts this year, indicating that the doves on the committee are now in the driver’s seat,” said Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We think it would take a significant upside surprise in inflation or labor market rebound to take the Fed off its current easing trajectory.” The plot indicated one cut in 2026, significantly slower than current market pricing of three. Traders had fully priced in this week’s move. Officials also indicated another reduction in 2027, as the Fed approaches a long-run neutral rate of 3%. A half-dozen officials saw the long-run rate below the median neutral level. Projections released following the meeting on general economic conditions saw slightly faster economic growth than was projected in June, while the outlooks for unemployment and inflation were unchanged. A stunning level of political drama preceded the meeting, especially for an institution that generally does its business quietly and with few dissenting voices. A year ago, against similar worries that a gradual rise in the unemployment rate could be signaling broader weakness, the FOMC approved a jumbo half-point reduction that Trump has said was politically motivated to influence the presidential election in favor of his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. Trump’s hectoring of the Fed and Miran’s appointment have raised questions over the traditional independence the central bank has had from political influence. Miran also has openly criticized Powell and his colleagues and is generally seen as a loyalist vote for the president and his desire for significantly lower rates. The president has said lower rates are needed to bolster the moribund housing market and to reduce financing costs for government debt. However, Powell said there was no “widespread support” for a half-point cut at the meeting. There was an additional layer of political intrigue this week as a court blocked Trump from removing Governor Lisa Cook, an appointee under former President Joe Biden. The White House has accused Cook of mortgage fraud involving federally backed loans she received for homes she purchased, though no charges have been brought. Cook was among those who joined the majority in voting for the quarter-point cut. Recent signals have shown that economic growth remains solid and consumer spending topping forecasts, though the labor market has been a point of contention. On the jobs front, the unemployment rate hit 4.3% in August, still relatively tame by historical standards but the highest since October 2021. Job creation has been stagnant this year, and a recent update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy created nearly a million fewer jobs than initially reported in the 12-month period prior to March 2025. Governor Waller in particular has expressed concern that the Fed should ease policy now to head off future issues in the labor market. His name also has been in the mix as a potential replacement for Powell, whose term expires in May 2026." MY COMMENT I doubt this will have any significant impact on the markets short term. They may even take this and.....move lower.
I knew I was screwed today from the open. I ended with a big loss for the day in my eight stocks. My only green holdings today....COST, MSFT, and AAPL. I also lost out to the SP500 today by.....1.13%. I would like to see some gains over the next couple of days to close out the week. My FEELING is that we may be in for a couple of RED days as the media and everyone PARSE the FED commentary and cut..
Sorry to see this happening....BUMMER. Gen Z Leads Biggest Drop in FICO Scores Since Financial Crisis https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gen-z-leads-biggest-drop-173103250.html "Gen Z borrowers took the biggest hit of any age group this year, helping pull overall credit scores lower in the worst year for US consumer credit quality since the global financial crisis roiled the world’s economy. The average FICO score slipped to 715 in April from 717 a year earlier, marking the second consecutive year-over-year drop, according to a report released Tuesday by Fair Isaac Corp. The average score dropped three points to 687 in 2009."....
