The early market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as AI optimism blots out US shutdown risks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...sm-blots-out-us-shutdown-risks-133118033.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks were mixed on Thursday, eyeing fresh records as OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) buzz buoyed techs and blotted out the prospect of a US government shutdown with no end in sight. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, rising 0.6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, wavered along the flat line The S&P 500 scored a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, closing above 6,700 for the first time, as investors focused on a fall in ADP jobs numbers that cemented bets on interest-rate cuts this year. That upbeat mood held as a wave of good news from the AI sector lifted chip stocks worldwide, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising to a record high. AMD (AMD) and SK Hynix (000660.KS, HXSCL) also gained. OpenAI's (OPAI.PVT) valuation soared to $500 billion after an employee share sale, boosting tech rally hopes despite fears of an AI bubble. The ChatGPT maker ousted Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) as the most valuable startup in the world. Elsewhere on the tech front, shares in Alibaba (BABA, 9988.HK) stock popped after JPMorgan raised its price target by almost 45%. Markets are setting aside the US government shutdown, which looks set to drag on at least until the end of the week. The Senate will be out Thursday in observance of Yom Kippur, making Friday the next chance to hold a vote on funding, after it rejected Republican and Democratic bills on Wednesday to trigger the stoppage. Given that, Friday's scheduled release of the September jobs report is all but certain to be delayed. That has Wall Street looking elsewhere during the federal data blackout as Fed policymakers have indicated cracks in the labor market will loom large in their October rate decision. Private data from the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Thursday found hiring plans at their lowest level since 2009, even as layoffs fell. The report provided more evidence of the softening "low hire, low fire" labor market after Wednesday's ADP report. Investors remain near-unanimous on bets for a cut at the Fed's next meeting." MY COMMENT What is noted above makes today basically as NOTHING of a day as we have had in a long time. NOTHING is happening in the news. That is a good thing. It will be nice to simply let the markets do what they wish to do without all the usual posturing by the media and others. (like the FED)
Posting my comment above made me think....are the FED and all their thousands of economists....LAID-OFF as non essential...... during the shut-down. Lets hope so. For me as a dedicated long term investor....they are definately non-essential.
YEP....this looks like the near term future. Although see the article above about trying to predict the next 2-3 months in the markets. Stocks Rally as Weak US Jobs News Reinforces Fed Rate Cut Hopes https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rally-weak-us-jobs-204559758.html
Sorry....I want to mention something about my holding COSTCO. They have had a terrible year in terms of the stock. Severely lagging the markets and the SP500 so far this year. YET....over three years....the stock has a total return of about +100%. So, I am not concerned about this year. if I can double my money in ONLY three years....that is EPIC. I see NOTHING about this company that gives me any concern....from management to fundamental business results...they are a dominant leader in their business area. What is happening to the stock right now is based on a single reason.....that has NOTHING negative to do with the company or business.....the price of a share is TOO HIGH for most retail investors.....SPLIT THE STOCK. I will DEFINITELY continue to be a long term holder.
This little article might be of use to some of us that are a little older. Expert breaks down the 2025 tax changes retirees should know Retirees will need to navigate new phaseouts and deductions following the passage of President Trump's tax and budget law. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expe...x-changes-retirees-should-know-160003316.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Retirees face a dramatically altered tax landscape in 2025 following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), with changes affecting everything from state and local tax deductions to Roth conversion strategies and estate planning. Tax expert Bob Keebler, a partner with Keebler and Associates, warned that while some changes offer significant opportunities, others create pitfalls that could cost retirees thousands if not properly navigated. The sweeping legislation extends well beyond simple tax rate adjustments, creating a complex web of phaseouts, deductions, and strategic planning opportunities that require careful coordination with qualified tax professionals, Keebler said in a recent Decoding Retirement podcast. He recommended meeting with a qualified CPA well before year-end, when tax professionals become overwhelmed with tax return preparation. "Every time you pull one lever, another lever moves," Keebler said. "We have to be super disciplined and use our software, not use Excel spreadsheets to figure everything out, because the Excel spreadsheets will never catch all these nuances." SALT cap increases, but there's a catch The state and local tax (SALT) deduction lets taxpayers deduct certain state and local taxes from federal taxable income — but only if they itemize rather than take the standard deduction. Under the OBBBA, the SALT cap jumps to $40,000 this year from $10,000 last year. That's a big increase, and it requires careful planning. "You don't want to have $60,000 this year and $20,000 next year," Keebler said. "That would be silly. It would be better to push everything over the $40,000 into next year if that's possible under local law." A phaseout for higher earners adds another wrinkle. Once income exceeds $500,000, the $40,000 cap begins to shrink, dropping back to $10,000 at $600,000 of income. "That journey from $500,000 of AGI [adjusted gross income] to $600,000 causes your income to actually go up by $130,000 because you lose that $30,000 deduction," Keebler said. "So if you're in that situation, you want to do everything possible to get your income back below $500,000." More broadly, Keebler suggested most retirees consider a bunching strategy for itemized deductions, as the standard deduction is now indexed to inflation and is projected to climb to record levels — about $32,200 for married couples in 2026 (up from $31,500 in 2025). "A lot of people should still itemize every two or three years," Keebler explained. The key driver, he noted, is charitable giving, because that's the lever retirees can most easily control. You might make a large contribution to a donor-advised fund in year one, he explained, then rely on that fund to distribute charitable gifts in years two and three, before repeating the process in year four. Roth conversions require careful testing While Roth conversions remain a valuable strategy under the new permanent tax rates, Keebler warned that they've become significantly more complex due to multiple phaseouts built into the legislation. He recommended testing your Roth conversion against each of those phaseouts to see how it affects other aspects of your tax return. "Test on a small incremental basis," Keebler advised. "I convert $20,000: What's going to happen to my SALT deduction? What's going to happen to my senior deduction? Will that $20,000 impact my IRMAA payment?" IRMAA, or income-related monthly adjustment amount, is a surcharge added to the standard monthly premiums for Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D prescription drug plans. It applies to higher-income beneficiaries and is based on their modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) from two years of prior tax returns. The IRMAA payment varies based on income brackets, with individuals falling into higher brackets paying a greater surcharge "What we don't want to do with IRMAA is stick our big toe over the line, meaning we go $100 over with a Roth conversion, and suddenly our premium goes up by $150 to $200 a month — times two if both spouses are on Medicare," Keebler said. "So it's very important to test all that."" Senior deduction offers new planning opportunity The legislation also adds a new $6,000 deduction for seniors ($12,000 for married couples) that stacks on top of the standard deduction or itemized deductions. But the deduction begins phasing out once modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) exceeds $150,000. That means retirees now face an extra layer of tax planning. Decisions such as selling securities, taking IRA distributions, or making Roth conversions could inadvertently push income over the $150,000 threshold — reducing or even eliminating this valuable benefit. "We want to make sure we're staying below that $150,000 starting point," Keebler said." MY COMMENT In spite of the mildly...psychologically....negative headline....these changes are ALL good for the vast majority of seniors. Yes, like any tax law you have to know the basics and do some simple planing.
I and the big averages are.....looking good...with about 50 minutes to go. I did see a FADE into the close yesterday....I want to see a gain into the close today. COME ON......GIVE IT TO ME.
Another day....another all time high.......for me. Probably the same for most people on here. I ended with a low...."medium"....gain today. I had five stocks in the green and three in the red....COST, HD, and MSFT. PLUS....a beat on the SP500 by 0.46%.
Imagine how NVDA is doing in this booming market.....with the stock and companies that they own. They invested $5BILLION in INTC at $23.28 per share. The stock is now at $37.3.....a 60% gain. That is a gain of about......$3BILLION....in a few weeks. "NVIDIA will invest $5 billion in Intel’s common stock at a purchase price of $23.28 per share." https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/...nfrastructure-and-personal-computing-products I dont know what the terms of their $100BILLION deal is with OpenAI....but the company has rocketed to a value of about $500BILLION since NVDA put in their first $10BILLION. OpenAI just became the world's most valuable startup Big-name investors are lining up to buy OpenAI employees' shares, valuing the startup at $500 billion https://qz.com/openai-is-now-the-worlds-most-valuable-startup They were an IPO buyer of CoreWeave at $40 per share...it is now at $138. A gain of $98 per share on 24MILLION shares. "Nvidia just made one of its boldest equity moves in 2025—snapping up 24 million shares of CoreWeave Inc., a GPU-native cloud infrastructure provider." https://www.levelfields.ai/news/why-did-nvidia-just-buy-24-million-shares-of-this-company Etc, etc, etc. Talk about creating shareholder value.
A good lesson for investors as we enter the month of October. Friendly Reminder: October Is Just a Month Seasonality doesn’t dictate returns. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/friendly-reminder-october-is-just-a-month (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "With September in the books and global stocks clocking a 3.2% return, we have officially made it through the supposedly worst month for stocks without a crash. You might think this would be cause for great huzzahs, but alas, we still live in a world with pockets of investor skepticism. So now, with the calendar turning to October, the conversation turns to October’s reputation as the “month of crashes.” This is no more valid than September’s worst-month reputation or any other seasonal myth. When you look at the averages, there is no apparent reason for October to have its grim reputation. The MSCI World has logged 55 Octobers since data start on 12/31/1969. Their average return is 0.9%, with a 58.2% frequency of gains.[ii] This puts October’s average return mid-pack, the seventh best of all 12. February, May, June and August are lower and still positive, but they aren’t synonymous with “crash.” America’s S&P 500 echoes this, averaging just under 1% monthly gains in Octobers since 1926 and rising in 61% of them.[iii] But October, in addition to Halloween (spooky), has two really bad crashes during the MSCI World Index’s history: 1987 and 2008. Black Monday and one of the worst months in 2008’s global financial crisis. Global stocks plunged -17.0% in October 1987 and -18.9% in October 2008.[iv] Two huge ouches. Those crashes loom large enough to color society’s perceptions of October. But the month itself was incidental. These events happened in October, not because of October. Plenty of other sharp, painful setbacks happened outside October. March 2020, for instance, fell -13.2% as COVID lockdowns wreaked havoc.[v] In 2011, global stocks fell -8.6% in September as the eurozone debt crisis hit a crescendo.[vi] The next month, October, they rallied. Similarly, in the 2000 – 2002 bear market, September 2002 fell -11.0%, while the new bull market began in early October.[vii] Back further, in 1998, the market freakout over hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse included a -13.4% plunge that August … and the V-shaped recovery brought a 9.0% October rally.[viii] Same song, third verse, for 1990’s short bear market: big drops that August and September, followed by an October boom. And that is only full month returns! Sometimes you get big crashes so short they don’t register in the monthly read. We have already lived that this year: Global stocks returned 0.9% in April.[ix] Even though they fell -11.3% from April 2 – April 8, a drop spanning just four trading days. That seems rather like a crash. And it was very much not in October. Now, maybe October 2025 will be painful. Short-term volatility is impossible to predict. Corrections—sharp, sentiment-induced drops of -10% to -20%—can happen any time, for any or no apparent reason. But if a pullback or worse strikes, it isn’t because of the month, season, lunar sign, World Series matchup or what have you. It is just the market’s random noise, the collision of emotion and short-term trading. Or, when in doubt, take it from that great sage, Samuel Clemens: “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Yes, Mark Twain knew the score way back in 1893, writing Pudd’nhead Wilson. A timeless truth if ever there was." MY COMMENT More superstition and BS that has nothing to do with investing....especially long term investing. As said above....random noise and emotion. Imagine if you....."sold in May and went away".....and than you skipped the supposedly BAD months of September and October. YOU would be out of the markets for.....SIX MONTHS....of every year. Not exactly a winning strategy.
Here is the open today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise on AI hopes as shutdown delays jobs report https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...as-shutdown-delays-jobs-report-234047328.html BASICALLY.....the bull market and current RALLY continue today....so far.
Basically...ALL....levels of society are seeing an increase in net worth right now. As to demonizing the top 1%....or 10%........forget it. This data shows that net worth has gone up across all levels of society. As for the top 1% and below.....as wealth increases this money is NOT sitting as some big pile to gold, silver and jewels in a big vault like in a Scrooge McDuck comic-book. NO....this money is BENEFITING EVERYONE....as it is invested or banked or spent and circulates through the economy. It drives job creation, the banking system, home and other lending, etc, etc, etc. This is the GLORY of capitalism......as the top people in the economy enjoy success.....their assets and money drives the economy for everyone else. The money of the rich and everyone else is not static. It creates leverage and compounding throughout the economy. The wealth of the top 1% reaches a record $52 trillion https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/the-wealth-of-the-top-1percent-reaches-a-record-52-trillion.html "Key Points The top 10% of Americans added $5 trillion to their wealth in the second quarter as the stock market rally continued to benefit the biggest investors, according to new Federal Reserve data. All wealth groups saw gains over the past year, with the net worth of the bottom half of Americans increasing 6% over the past 12 months, according to the Fed data. The growth has been fastest for those at the very top." MY COMMENT Want "YOUR" piece of the pie? Well, you have to participate as an investor....just like the rich. Do it today....take the first step.....join us and become a long term investor.
I have to go now.....I have a phone meeting in about 20 minutes with our family oil and gas corporation Land-Man. The markets dont seem to need my help today anyway. We will soon be into the start of earnings in about a couple of weeks. Cant wait.
One last quick post. PLTR is taking a hit today....no doubt based on this little report. Anduril and Palantir battlefield communication system has deep flaws, Army memo says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/anduril-palantir-ngc2-deep-flaws-army.html I am seeing this in only a few sources.......who knows what the real story is since this is a LEAK.
As to the above.....WAY OVERBLOWN.....but it will impact PLTR for a few days...perhaps more. This system, is called NGC2 (Next Generation Command & Control). It was NOT created by PLTR...it was created by Anduril which was awarded a $100MILLION contract from the Army to create a prototype for the NGC2 system. MSFT and PLTR were designated as "partners" on the project. The various flaws in the prototype appear.....to me....to be the responsibility of Anduril. What makes this OVERBLOWN is......this is exactly what an INITIAL prototype is for......to trouble shoot and fine tune...before you go to final product. it is likely with this sort of product that there will be MANY prototypes and tests before the final product is complete. I have no doubt this was a LEAK......and if so....it was likely intended to harm Anduril, PLTR, and/or MSFT. A short sellers dream situation. Good old fashioned corporate "war" in action....or short seller or trading dirty tricks. Of course with PLTR being a very hot name right now.....every headline and article I have seen barely makes any mention of the actual company that created the prototype.....Anduril......or MSFT. Some real sensationalism going on here....but what is new. This pretty much says it all: "......the Army’s chief information officer, Leonel Garciga, clarified that the memo was part of a normal process to identify and mitigate cybersecurity risks during the development phase of the prototype." SO.....as usual and as we often see short term.....there is really NOTHING to this story. The product is basically an initial prototype and this is part of the testing and development process. Kind of like when ELON blows up 10 to 20 to 30 rockets in the development phase of testing and perfecting a new rocket design. Nothing more or less than....basic engineering procedure...... to create and fine tune a new prototype. https://www.tipranks.com/news/palan...-very-high-risk-security-flaws-in-army-system
And a bit more.....on this DISHONEST story. ......the Army awarded Anduril a $99.6 million contract.......partners include Palantir, Striveworks, Govini, Instant Connect Enterprise, Research Innovations and Microsoft. Anduril is viewed as an upstart challenger to the old-school defense industry. Anduril is also developing pilot-less fighter jets along with other autonomous systems. Anduril was founded by Palmer Luckey, formerly with Facebook, and a trio of former Palantir executives. Elon Musk's SpaceX, Anduril and Palantir are working together on other defense system proposals and prototypes. https://www.investors.com/news/tech...-battlefield-communications-network-security/
I also see this but I cant read it since I dont pay. No one else is reporting this right now....of course.....it is a click frenzy for the media. Palantir Rebuts Claims of Security Flaws After Stock Falls https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ts-claims-of-security-flaws-after-stock-falls
Ok....I ended the day with a medium....big-loss.....today. I had only three stocks in the green....MSFT, AAPL, and HD. Of course MSFT is also a partner along with PLTR and others..... on the Anduril prototype system that was all over the news today. BUT....I defy anyone to find them mentioned in any headline. Even Anduril....the contract holder...l;is never mentioned in the headlines....it is ALL....PLTR, PLTR, PLTR. A CLASSIC media HIT-JOB on PLTR. Back to my account today....I got beat by the SP500 by 1.03%. Moving a week closer to earnings about mid month and into the first full week of October.
The markets this week: S&P 500 posts winning week, but Friday rally fizzles https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The week that was: DOW year to date +10.30% DOW five days +0.98% SP500 year to date +14.44% SP500 five days +0.81% NASDAQ 100 year to date +18.22% NASDAQ 100 five days +0.68% NASDAQ year to date +18.15% NASDAQ five days +0.78% RUSSELL year to date +10.96% RUSSELL five days +1.37%. As for me a BIG WEEK in spite of today.....I am now at year to date for my entire portfolio.....+24.07%. Last week I was at.....+21.20%.
