From the post above in reference to consideration of “when to sell.” This is one that really doesn’t square with me. Maybe a typo….maybe not? My 2cents…. Would be a consideration when a stock HAS grown too large in position. In other words, if a portfolio may live or die based on one holding, then you really don’t have a portfolio. This doesn’t necessarily mean that an investor must completely sell the company. One can still hold it, but reduce some exposure. As the article suggests, it is a good idea to have some sort of plan or idea on your management of positions when you add them. Even periodic reviews will help keep an eye on things so that you are not in the thick of it trying to figure it out.
Right now my portfolio is extremely heavy on NVDA. It did not start that way. I had more companies that I invested in right after the infamous COVID dip. As time went on, it became clear to me that NVDA was the leader in the AI revolution... the seller of shovels, if you will. It was a very obvious sign that no matter what happened to the companies buying NVDA's chips, the sale was done, and NVDA was the main benefactor. With this in mind (and very trackable lagging of my other holdings), I sold off a lot of the companies I felt that would be laggards or not part of the feeding frenzy and put the proceeds into NVDA. Thus far, it has worked pretty well. That is all to say that I very much agree with the quote, “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.” I see it all the time on other boards, "Time to take profits off the table and diversify." Why? Let the action play out, and when the winds of change happen or the current runner starts lagging then sell. Otherwise you left all that gain on the table out of fear. As long as one keeps their ear to the ground and watches macro trends, the loss of selling a bit late into a company's decline is much less than selling too early and sacrificing all that gain. Jensen is still in charge and as hungry as ever. NVDA is getting into everything to keep the moat as wide as can be. I see absolutely no signs of slowing, and so I will sit tight and let it all play out with both eyes open for change. Ride the wave, as W so often states I would be remiss if I did not point out that the same signs are there for PLTR. Zukodany called it from the beginning, but I just cannot bring myself to invest in a company I view as evil. There's corporate evil, and then there is 1984 evil. I refuse to invest in 1984 evil.
You are doing the right thing ROAD. Someone should NEVER invest in a company that they can not stomach....I dont care how great of a company it is. And as to your other point....YES.....as I often say I......let winners run.
Sounds like you have put some thought and consideration into it. It is good to evaluate and think about your plan and manage it to match your risk.
Speaking of portfolio management, sometimes it is not based solely on whether you can handle a particular stock, but rather if you really need to in order to achieve your goal.
For me when it comes to a portfolio......it is ALL about the whole. NOT single stocks. I am in the same situation as many people on here with NVDA....it now dominates my portfolio. So it is no longer as much about the whole anymore. At some point in the next few months I....."MIGHT".....cash in some of my NVDA profits and put that money into a couple of paintings. I will be diversifying that money into hard assets.....art. It will all depend on what happens in one auction that I have coming up where I am watching a particular painting..... and.....with another painting that I recently let the owner know I would like to buy it. It will all depend if I have a shot in the auction....or...if the owner of the other painting decides to sell or not. If I end up doing this....NVDA will still be the largest holding by far.
That is one of the nice things about investing. It does give one the opportunity to utilize some funds earned without dipping into other budget areas or other financing. Especially when it is the result of long term investing and sitting through all that we go through. A nice reward is okay to do.
The way I see it is that NVDA has so outperformed my other holdings I have a bit of time to really make a decision if they, at some point, drop the ball completely as a company. I'll still be far ahead of where I would be if I did not go all out by dumping sales of other stocks into them. If, let's say that AMD starts to really dig into NVDA, I can easily take profits and dump it into them instead. Or if someone comes out of nowhere with a revolutionary company/product, the profit from my bullish investment on NVDA will afford me to do that. I'm not a pro by any means, but I try to stick with what I know best: Tech. You deserve a reward. Get yourself some art. No point in investing if you cannot enjoy the fruits of your labor at some point Indeed.
LOL.....believe me I have no problem rewarding myself......with gains. That is why we have a house full of art, antiques, sculpture, and other collectables.
Kind of hard to imagine at this point, but there are all sorts of possibilities I suppose. They have put themselves in a nice position for awhile now. I figure if or when, it might be some other company they are associated with that suffers some event/incident that might effect not only them, but others. Quite a bit of this seems to be interwoven at the moment.
I posted the above about selling some NVDA to take profit and buy two paintings....under my pledge to put any and all moves on here. If it happens I will post it that day if possible. The big down side to this besides capital gains taxes is..... it will drive me into a higher premium level for my Regular Medicare and Part D....for a year. I have a range in terms of where the auction painting might sell. At the highest sales price that I am willing to bid...... I will end up selling....for both paintings....about 1/4 to 1/3 of my NVDA position. Even after that the position will STILL dominate my entire portfolio. There is no saying this will happen since I might get outbid at the auction. Besides wanting the art.....I am seeing this as PROFIT TAKING......and....DIVERSIFICATION. I dont collect art as an investment....but both these paintings have "value" at auction and I could fairly easily get my money out of them if I ever wanted to.....and if I was lucky.......make a good profit.
With big earnings ahead of us this week we are also looking to get the CPI data on Friday. AND....the really good news....with 12% of SP500 earnings in so far.....results are BOOMING. An EPIC earnings season so far.....and I expect...it will continue. Key Earnings Data: • So far Q3 2025 (with 12% of S&P 500 in the can) is EPIC, we stand at....86% of S&P 500 companies showing a positive EPS surprise..... and..... 84% a positive revenue surprise. • For Q3 2025, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 8.5%. If this continues it will be the 9th quarter in a row. KILLER earnings so far......86% EPS beats and 84% Revenue beats is WAY above average. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_101725B.pdf HERE is the week to come: Stock futures rise ahead of big earnings week https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Some real good GREEN in the big averages today. BUT.....I dont trust it.....I think the gains are overblown in the averages and when I look at my eight stocks there are gains but some are pretty muted. We may be seeing an opening pop that fades as the morning progresses. Whats new? My primary slightly down stock.....NVDA. As usual it is amazing how much and how often this stock is disrespected and pushed around by news items that are basically nothing more than....SPECULATION.
This is a big driver of AAPL today. iPhone 17 outsells predecessor by 14% in early China, US sales, research firm says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iphone-17-outsells-predecessor-14-050025758.html
AND....as to the government shut-down.....I dont hear anyone talking about it and I dont see anyone caring. The politicians certainly dont care. They get to go home and campaign for November.
I "heard" that the Ten Year Treasury was below 4% earlier today. Right now it is at....3.997%. If all the media BS was true over the past five or more years....about how all the big cap tech stocks were so sensitive to rising interest rates......the reverse should be true now. BUT....I dont see it. I also have not seen a peep out of the media on this. It is BALONEY....but this falsehood had a big impact on stocks over many years. AND...I have never seen anything explaining why the largest, safest, most profitable, most dominant, companies in the world that are sitting on MASSIVE HOARDS of CASH....should be so interest rate sensitive.
HERE is the market so far today...still looking good. Stocks rise to start the week on hopes strong earnings are ahead, shutdown will end https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html Of course.....not a peep....about the true story of the day.....Ten Year yields below 4%. The other good news for the markets: We are one week into earnings and 58 SP500 companies have reported. Seventy six percent of them have BEAT expectations....this is way above the first week average of 68% and higher than last quarter which was 73%. My view on earnings for the past quarter.....they will be HISTORIC.
We are in for as boring of a NORMAL week as possible. NOTHING in the news out of the ordinary or shocking. It is so nice to suddenly be in a completely normal market environment. Reminds me of the old days....when few people owned stocks and there was virtually ZERO coverage day to day...unless you got the Wall Street Journal. Everything was under the radar. AND.....so far we have been free of FED BS for the last two to three weeks......how refreshing.
