A CLASSIC little article here that fully documents the GLORY of long term investing. the article covers a good amount of ground beyond what is in the headline. How Many Stocks Outperform the Stock Market? https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-many-stocks-outperform-the-stock-market/ Bottom line...outperforming the SP500 is hard. AND...doing so consistently is just about unheard of. Again....we are a rare bunch on this thread. And........picking winning stocks is hard and it is harder yet to stay in them for the long term. As the article says: "Buy-and-hold is probably your best bet when owning individual stocks but it’s not easy to sit on your hands and wait."
Here is the markets today to close out the week. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq surge to records as tame inflation cements Fed rate cut bets https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...tion-cements-fed-rate-cut-bets-200014567.html
A short but nice little article. There is a lot of talk lately about....bubbles. We have basically seen three bubbles since 1989.....the Japan asset bubble (1989)....the Dot Com bubble(2000)...and....the housing, credit, derivative bubble in 2008-2009. I remember all three. The second two....Dot Com and housing, derivative bubble......were clear and obvious to me when they happened. In both......people were OUT OF CONTROL and what was happening was pretty obvious....yet many, if not most people, did not see it. In the Dot Com bubble I simply held through it all.....my expectation was that my BIG CAP portfolio would protect me. It did somewhat....but I still had a big drop. It was similar to a nasty BEAR MARKET. In the derivative bubble....I sold all stocks..... for the first time in my life. The reason I sold was my concern that for the first time in history....there was potential for a world wide economic and banking collapse. I was able to re-invest in early 2009 and captured some BIG GAINS. A Short History of Bubbles https://ritholtz.com/2025/10/short-history-of-bubbles/ Now the question....do I think we are in a bubble right now with AI. Short answer.....NO. A resounding....NO. Does that mean everyone should trust my view..........NO. On this topic, like most investing topics....EVERY INVESTOR....has to do what they believe is right for them.
LOL.....I have some news for you.....the FED is ALWAYS.....FLYING BLIND. They have no better ability to predict the financial and economic future than anyone else....perhaps worse. They have a horrible record of causing recessions and screwing up the economy. The entire basis for their inflation fighting....the 2% target.....is simply DUMB and IRRATIONAL BS. Etc, etc, etc. Good inflation news gives some relief — but the Fed’s flying blind from here https://finance.yahoo.com/news/good...he-feds-flying-blind-from-here-100045928.html
YES.....we are at just the early beginning of the AI impact on employment. It will create much turmoil as companies SEVERELY flatten their organizational models. Meta AI layoffs latest signal tech’s hottest career path may end with more risk than riches https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/big-tech-ai-acquisition-layoffs-workers.html
Oh man, that brings back some memories. The dot com I was just going along working and kept at it. Based on my time, I noticed the loss, but was somewhat early in career and investing. The GFC was terrible. I held the line and stayed in, but it was very difficult. I finally just told myself that it would get better and end. It eventually did. That did not make it any easier though. It tested many for certain. I think people overlook the amount of time to recovery. In these events, it is hard to know how deep or how long it may last. Especially as it just grinds on and on. In general terms, I think many can overestimate their ability to endure. This is why it is so important to manage your plan for risk. Some think they can make on the fly adjustments, anticipate time and length, and many other factors. It is a lot different in the event itself.
This will be interesting to see over a period of time. Just how much of a wider impact it may or may not have from an employment perspective. Obviously, we have seen some near term stuff, but I wonder about further down the road. I guess some of it depends on how actually useful it turns out to be and to what extent it is applicable to certain fields.
Both the bubbles above were basically....nasty BEAR MARKETS. In fact in this thread........ there is a time span where we were caught up and stuck in a BEAR MARKET for at least 1 to 1.5 years. This is just...."my"...... reality as a long term investor and why anyone that does not have at least 5 years should not be thinking they are long term. Money that is shorter term than 3 years should not be in the markets at risk. Too much danger that when that money is needed we will be in the middle of a bear market and you will be down by 20-30%....on that "needed" money.
To continue speaking about many of us on this thread.....and how well we do as AMATEURS. Berkshire Hathaway YTD......+8.6%. SP500 YTD.......+15.5%. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire is lagging the S&P 500 by the largest gap so far this year https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/25/buf...-500-by-the-largest-gap-so-far-this-year.html
Maybe he will give us a performance bonus. The investing world will have a void when he is gone. His comments and letters are always an interesting read.
The week to come. BIG on earnings and BIG on the FED cut. Both could make this a very good week for investors. Big Tech earnings, a crucial Fed meeting, and a Trump-Xi sit-down: What to watch this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-...t-down-what-to-watch-this-week-114354660.html "The corporate earnings calendar will be the busiest of this earnings season, with Big Tech leaders Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all set to report quarterly results." In addition we WILL get another rate cut from the FED. Probably a quarter point.....but.....there is a slight chance for a half point surprise. I will gladly take the quarter point.
