The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice little article with emphasis on two charts that are the GUTS of LONG TERM INVESTING.

    Stocks and Bond Charts We Believe Are the Most Important in the Long Run

    https://www.carsongroup.com/insight...lieve-are-the-most-important-in-the-long-run/

    "Stay Patient—There’s a Reason It’s Called Investing
    This brief look at fundamentals still has some important takeaways:
    • Stock and bond returns aren’t arbitrary or simply speculative. The have fundamental drivers and in the long run, this is what supports the return outlook.
    • Stocks have an expected premium to bonds.
    • If you are a patient investor, you can take your bearings from these fundamentals. They’re not the end point but they’re a good way to orient yourself."
    MY COMMENT

    Yes....BORING. Siting and doing NOTHING....is hard. It is boring and there is no rush of excitement and brain chemicals.

    AND....for the media.....no clicks and no BLARING headlines.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As i have been typing....the markets have done NOTHING. The big averages are sitting about right where they were when I posted about them above.

    I have NO ILLUSIONS that I am in the green today.....I dont even have to look.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ask the FED....they are TRASHING the housing markets as much as the stock markets.

    When will mortgage rates go down? Rates are barely moving.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-...barely-moving-november-17-2025-190610067.html

    The peasants should be marching on the FED building with touches and pitchforks....vampire stakes and crosses.

    At this point the FED itself is the greatest impediment to the economy.......by far. Their constant negativity, incessant media appearances, trashing of the markets, and jaw-boning of rates higher in the face to rate cuts is....RIDICULOUS.

    It is as though we are reading a Superman comic-book about the BIZARRO WORLD...where everything is the opposite of what is supposed to be done. We are dealing with the......BIZARRO-FED.

    Bizarro World

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro_World

    "In the Bizarro World of "Htrae", society is ruled by the Bizarro Code which states "Us do opposite of all Earthly things! Us hate beauty! Us love ugliness! Is big crime to make anything perfect on Bizarro World"
     
    #26824 WXYZ, Nov 17, 2025 at 10:55 AM
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2025 at 11:42 AM
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lets see....in this little article they manage to touch on....short manipulator Michael Burry....Peter Theil selling NVDA...that a big beat might actually be a negative for the broader AI trade......AI overspending......big revenue coming from Hyper-Scalers ( a negative).....no revenue from China.....

    Is that enough?

    Nvidia to report Q3 earnings amid investor concerns of AI overbuilding

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...or-concerns-of-ai-overbuilding-153409072.html

    Not a single positive comment.......they are getting all wound up to CRASH and IGNORE another GREAT earnings report.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is about it for this morning and the markets. The CORRECTION continues........but....remember this is a normal process and reflects a continued HUGE WALL OF WORRY. The bull market is alive and well.

    Yet at the same time.....as we are hit with massive coverage pushing negativity....the constant media BS is that we are in a BUBBLE.

    WTF.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just looked at my account expecting to see a HUGE loss. i still only have a single stock in the GREEN....GOOGL. BUT my loss is currently...... very MILD.

    A nice surprise.

    I am also seeing the percentage of NVDA in my account drop some as the value of the position is hit by the correction.....although the position is still...... MASSIVELY.....larger than any other holding.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree.....and...If I had money I would be BUYING for the long term. Perhaps a good entry point right now in PLTR, NVDA, MSFT and other big cap tech companies....for those that did not buy in the past and regret it. Although this id dependent on having the GUTS to hold for the long term......and....is NOT investment advice.

    ‘Hold your ground’: Wall Street strategists say tech stock sell-off is a short-term blip as earnings bull case remains intact

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hold...nings-bull-case-remains-intact-153023828.html
     
  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Are we? Granted, I haven't looked closely at everything. I don't think the averages (SP 500/NASDAQ/DOW) are that close to it, but maybe I should look more often...LOL.

    Yes, I've seen where I think you mentioned NVDA being there or past -10%.
     
  10. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned it above....I looked only to see the market has fell a little further as if it heard me ask. Never mind....nothing to see here.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I believe most on here are either in or close to correction with many of their stocks. The big averages....no.

    And....for me it is all about "feelings"....for me this "feels" like a correction.

    Or how about this one......if NVDA and PLTR are in correction.....it is a correction.
     
  12. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    NVDA down about 10% from ATH? Meh.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....I am not saying that a correction in specific stocks or the whole market is a big deal. BUT.....I am calling this a CORRECTION. A common event in any market year once or twice or even three times.

    I dont see much staying power to this one since it is based on nothing but story-lines.....nothing of any significance....at least to me. I dont buy the bubble argument or any of the other negative story-lines out there right now.

    I had a large....medium loss today. I had a single GREEN stock....GOOGL. I also got slightly beat by the SP500 today by....0.06%.

    Moving on to my HD earnings tomorrow.....they should be in tomorrow morning.
     
  14. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Active Member

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    It’s very rare that I see stories in the mainstream news over here about stocks or investing, but I’m seeing a lot about this so-called ‘AI bubble’ lately.

    Leading story on the BBC this morning...https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

    Every day I read something now. Would probably be considering selling up if it wasn't for this place.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Cloudflare was keeping me from this site today. they had a major outage.

    HERE are the HD earnings.......best I can say is MIXED......and....they are not going to make the markets happy.

    Home Depot cuts earnings outlook as home improvement demand falls short of expectations

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/18/home-depot-hd-q3-2025-earnings-.html

    I believe they are being hammered by events outside their control....but that is part of business. We have to take a dog to he vets in about 20 minutes so I have no time right now. But some time today...I need to take a hard look at this stock and the bargain prices that are out there in the markets right now and decide whether to make a lateral move into some of the other hard hit stocks right now.

    I hate to sell this stock since it will leave me with only seven stocks. I dont like to own that few.

    Anyway...no hurry so I will think about it later. Have to get ready for the vet.

    A WASTED day anyway.
     
  16. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I'm making some end of the year moves to move my retirement from the company into my brokerage. The Roth IRA deposited this morning and was in the S&P 500. It is now split in equal parts between NVDA, PLTR, HWM, AMD. Yes, I now own some AMD again. A very small position compared to what I held in the past but still back on the team.
     
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  17. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    This site wasn't working today when I tried to come here.
    I thought..."hum...it is today....Gil shut us down today".
    Gladly it was just some sort of flaw in Cloudflare...
     
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    That is not really a bad thing..LOL. We are literally over exposed to the silly headlines here. Not just financial, but the rest of the circus as well.

    I think it is okay to have an awareness about some things, but most of it is simply not even actionable. Way, way too much effort and attention is given to the daily noise. So, consider yourself somewhat lucky not to be bombarded with it. You are likely even a better investor with its absence.
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So....I have to head out once again.

    BUT...before going I took the time to SELL.....ALL HD. I than immediately moved half the proceeds into VOO. My SP500 Index Fund is NOT an ETF since it is an old holding. I decided to put the new money into an ETF and try to save a bit on taxes.

    The other half of the money went into my seven remaining stocks on an equal dollar basis.....a LATERAL move on a down day.

    So now my stocks are:

    NVDA
    AAPL
    GOOGL
    MSFT
    COST
    AMSN
    PLTR

    I hate to only have seven stocks. I have traditionally liked to have 10-15....although I have not had 10 for a good while now. I looked at the last five years of HD and they have suffered from the pandemic on to now. For five years they are only....+26.62%. I can do much better than that in the new VOO with half the money. I also believe that at this entry point I can do much better than that in the remaining seven stocks.

    I will keep HD in mind for the future.....along with WMT...depending on how they do. At this point I have NO PLANS to add any additional stocks or to SELL anything else.

    AND......I remain fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
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  20. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I'm not referring to your comment, W. I am just talking in general. My apologies if it looked that way.
     
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