That is about it for me early today. NOTHING going on today.....other than trading FOOLISHNESS. BUT....the impact on long term investors is real.....and....is impacting long term results and returns. SO....I will go away and IGNORE IT ALL.
Sorry I can not resist.....fundamentals.....who cares. NVDA down by....-6%....in one day.....by -7.12%.....in five days.....and by....-10.32%...over one month. ALL happening in the month in which they report HUGE EARNINGS. In fact....HISTORIC earnings.
The only thing I can think of is the big boys have some much money tied up in NVDA that they have to sell it to buy the latest greated media announcements. It seems the short term 'voting machine' seems to be growing to mid term. As mentioned, when it just remains a voting machine long term it will no longer be of any value to the masses. I have no doubt that the stock market will eventually get destroyed, just a matter of if it will hold out for my lifetime. "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine"
Obviously I agree...TireSmoke. BUT...I dont think the big boys have much tied up in NVDA....through AI program trading....they are using it as a micro-second trading vehicle. I think I am safe for my lifetime....but perhaps not if I live another....20 years or more. Of course....the current market driver.....AI....will push the destruction of the markets WAY QUICKER than most people realize. The....phrase...."AI TRADE".....will come to mean the total dominance of AI on the stock markets. It will be a massive change.....and the impact on the little "retail investors" will be significant. The AI train has left the station.....and there will be no stopping it....short of some MASS EVENT like WWIII. "PROGRESS"....that used to take 100 years will happen in a decade or less. How or if HUMANS....will be able to stomach and deal with change occurring this quickly.....will not matter....it will be a self-sustaining process. I see it as a MASSIVE SNOWBALL...rolling downhill and picking up speed exponentially. PRETTY SCARY in terms of the future of the human race. We will find out that our HUMAN BRAINS are not wired for change of this magnitude over such a short time. It will be a very strange time.....when we look back we might see that it was.....WWIII....or....some other huge disaster that knocked back civilization......and saved the world and the human race.
In the meantime....I have a Board Meeting at noon today that I need to get ready for and drive to. So on the above....HAPPY and POSITIVE note....I will leave the board till this afternoon.
So, I will chime in on the "future of the market" discussion a bit. I will offer a different opinion on the matter and respectfully disagree of course. Capitalism will continue to drive companies and innovation. The companies goals are to be profitable and investors will want to participate in owning some of that revenue. True enough, not all companies survive, but the driving force to do so will remain. Historically the market has been through some very troubled times. Some downright terrible times for different reasons. There have been long term events, short term events, out of the blue events, and so on. Think about the significance of those times. At that very moment, many would have said "there is no way" we are not done and out for the count. Long term investing in the market has survived in the aspect that we can still participate and generate some wealth. Of course, we can go back and look at different time periods and see that there were events and spans of time where it was very difficult. There were also times of record beating returns. I do not dismiss the obvious changes in the market as mentioned by my friends above. The instant information, constant headlines, fraudulent schemes, and such do exist. There is more "noise" out there on a regular basis. It can move the market and investors at times, but sanity eventually will return over the long term as usual. However, some of our own fears about these things are owed to the fact that we allow ourselves to be lured into the daily distraction of it all. When we see the ticker symbols fluctuate on an hourly basis or we consume the constant updated headlines we start to believe that things are happening all around us that we simply cannot control. We, as humans, love to control things. When we can't, we start to search for solutions that may give us reassurance that we can. The SP 500 sits a little over +14% YTD. You could simply do absolutely nothing for that return this year so far. No news, no financial talk, no AI bubble speculation, disregard the government dysfunction, and all of the "pundits." That's a pretty easy return....so far anyway. If we look even further back, not a bad way to generate some wealth over the long term either. Yes, I do realize that many investors are not passive in their portfolio/plans. Well, many of those top companies are making good returns too. This, despite all of the daily circus. Volatility can sometimes be the price of admission to the ride. It is just part of it. Yes, there are times when it is unreasonable or seems to defy all of humanity and common sense. We often get lost in that part of the story and overlook the long term wealth built from doing almost nothing, but recognizing the potential of a company. I don't buy into the theory of the markets being destroyed or not investable. The fundamentals, innovation, and competition will continue to be the long term success that make up the snowball. Yes, there will be events that take us off course. Economic, global events, and other even unforeseen circumstances. The basic foundation of what drives the returns may change some, but the core of it will be what matters over a long period.
I believe that the changes that AI will bring are MUCH bigger than the markets. Markets will only be a small symptom of the whole event that AI will trigger. There will be MASSIVE political, social, and cultural change. Much of the change will be DISRUPTIVE to society......the big question......over the medium term as it happens....will the overall impact be negative or positive? BUT....back to the markets as they currently exist. I had a MICRO-LOSS today. After all the BS through the day....we ended just about where we started. I had every stock green except for....of course...NVDA. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.94% today.
It was simply a very EMBARRASSING market and day today. If I was the markets I would be REALLY EMBARRASSED by what happened today. There is ZERO RATIONAL way that NVDA should be getting jerked around like it has since earnings. In fact take today as an example.....a minor story about GOOGL doing chips and making a deal on some chips takes out the largest, most dominant, most successful, and highest market cap company in the world. The stock gets jerked all over the place....up to a $12 a share loss. A company with the POWER of NVDA....the largest in the world..... should be a market anchor. Of all the companies in the world it is NVDA that should be able to endure just about anything without a shrug or a second thought. As long as earnings hold up and management stays the same....NO...other company is going to catch or match their products. NVDA has a HUGE head-start. They are relentless, driven in their management, and will not just sit back and give up market share and product dominance. Of ALL the stocks and companies in the world this one should be BULLET-PROOF to most everything.....at least way more than any other company. Lately for at least a year....it is like the markets are tip-toeing around afraid of their shadow...when it comes to NVDA. Any little bit of negative news...or...usually speculation...causes a TIZZY in the stock. For the strongest company in the world to be reacting like this is extremely ABNORMAL. Especially following EARNINGS....BEAT...after BEAT....after BEAT....etc, etc. What happened today is...just....EMBARRASSING. NOT to mention IRRATIONAL. An unfortunate indicator of where we are in the day to day...... up to monthly....... markets. I am sure the holiday week AMPLIFIED the underlying AI TRADING today. BUT....we have seen these sorts of CRAZY moves a lot over the past year or two. SOMETHING needs to be done about AI MICRO-SECOND-TRADING....by the huge banks and financial companies. We are now at the point of FLAT-OUT.......MARKET MANIPULATION.
If the market today was an "embarrassment" being solidly in the GREEN.....then I hope to be savagely humiliated again for the remainder of the year. I know, I know, you are referring to your frustration regarding NVDA and it's specific market reaction. Throw a fit and get it out of your system, vent it out to us, buy some more shares or something....whatever it takes. Look at it another way. NVDA is up around +32% YTD. In the SPIRIT of Thanksgiving. Be thankful for the continued market blessing we all have received this year up to this point.
