I like this little article. What the Long-Awaited Jobs Data Really Revealed Stocks are well aware of the ongoing trends. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...hat-the-longawaited-jobs-data-really-revealed ....."Maybe, just maybe, it is time to stop listening to those who warn weak jobs growth signals trouble and start trusting the market. None of this tells us what stocks will do in 2026, so don’t take this to be a forecast. We will get there, but that time isn’t now. However, whatever the market does, it won’t hinge on employment trends. Those will generally follow whatever stocks do, at a late lag."
The market so far today. Stocks rise on cooler-than-expected inflation data, strong Micron earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
HERE is REALITY. Day after day we see positive real fundamental data on AI and big cap TECH.....and....business in general. Yet we ignore most of it. We dont just ignore it...we bend over backwards to nit-pick it and come up with reasons why it can not be trusted. As a result....many of the top ten big cap companies in the SP500 are currently on sale. Micron stock pops 13% as AI memory demand soars: ‘We are more than sold out’ https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/micron-mu-stock-earnings-ai-memory-demand.html
Even on a big gain day like today....I still have two stocks in the RED....COST and GOOGL. At the moment I have made back perhaps about half of what I lost yesterday. I will take it....gladly. BUT.....I have no expectations for the markets today. Lets see where we end up as the day progresses. If anything I am surprised that the markets are NOT up more than they are. I am currently in wait and see mode......vaguely optimistic at least for one day....today. As a business person....I am still very concerned with the continued refusal of the markets to see and respect good fundamental business results. I would expect this sort of environment if we were working our way out of a BEAR MARKET. BUT....in the middle of an EPIC BULL MARKET......very irrational. In the meantime as I wait.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.....MAKE ME BELIEVE.
WELL....so far so good as the markets continue to show strength today. I have now improved to having made back about 80% of what I lost yesterday. If we ended the day right here I would be satisfied. Best case....we continue to improve slightly as the day progresses.....AND....this market strength carries over to tomorrow. EIGHT....yes....EIGHT...market days left in 2026 after today. The markets will close at 1:00PM EST on Christmas Eve. They...the stock markets.... will be open all day on New Years Eve. I would like to keep about a....+25%...gain to year end. That would be a very nice thing. HIGHLY ABNORMAL....but...a beautiful thing.
This is what happens when a big company deviates from CAPITALISM. Ford’s Felonious Failure https://issuesinsights.com/2025/12/17/fords-felonious-failure/ "At some point, there will be no news about the Ford Motor Company’s electric vehicle fiasco. But we’re not there yet, as the most recent reports show that the automaker is paying dearly for its commitment to a Potemkin market built by a government that promised favors to companies that would follow its agenda." MY COMMENT Fortunately for me....I never buy auto companies...too boom and bust for me.
I dont think we will see another BUFFETT in the investing world. He was a UNIQUE investor created by the times, the society, the culture, and the environment he lived through. Pershing Square Backs Howard Hughes $2.1 Billion Vantage Bid Ackman strikes $2.1B deal in bid to build 'modern Berkshire Hathaway' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pershing-square-backs-howard-hughes-134044804.html
YEAH....RG. I think a lot of that comes from YouTube protecting their content. I have tried to post some songs over the last 6 months or so.....and could not do it.
With inflation stable I think this is ok from an economic standpoint. It WILL provide some economic stimulus. Having grown up in a MILITARY FAMILY....I am also ok with this on the basis of supporting the military.......and...military families. NO...it does not apply to "EVERY" soldier....only those with ranks of "O-6" or below....basically excluding Generals and Admirals. Apparently the money is NOT taxable. Trump announces ‘warrior dividend’ of $1,776 to every U.S. soldier in prime-time speech https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/17/watch-trump-white-house-address.html
We have now.....MOSTLY...made it through the mid-morning danger time for the markets. NOW....all we have to do is get through the last hour of the day without a big market FADE. We are half way there. I DOUBLE DOG DARE....the markets to screw me today.
I should be careful who I double dog dare. The markets have pulled back slightly now. Lets HOPE this is not the start of a slow FADE to the close. When it comes to the short term...especially only 3 hours.....it is all HOPE and LUCK.
Of course.....we have the usual IDIOTS....showing up to try to tank the markets. 'Absence of data' in CPI report flashes yellow for further interest rate cuts https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abse...for-further-interest-rate-cuts-163821729.html This little GEM of NEGATIVITY came out about....an hour ago. LOL...on the site I pulled this from....there is a photo of POWELL with the headline. One thing is a CONSTANT.....the continuous mantra from the MARKET TRASHER'S.....that we will need to wait longer to see more data. It is AMAZING how negative they always are. The key to creating a great economy is POSITIVITY. Constantly trashing the markets and the economy....by REFUSING to ever see anything good or positive.....does nothing to sustain and support business or investors. Perception.....is....reality. I have seen this many times in business, sports, employment, and life in general. It is AMAZING how often a change in leadership and the tone of leadership causes an immediate change. I like to live in the world of REALITY....but....constant negativity...motivates no one.
HERE is a little .....NEGATIVE JEWELL....from the article above. A pretty good indicator of where the writer is coming from: "On a “core” basis, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, inflation clocked in at 2.6%, compared with estimates for 3%. Core inflation had been stuck around 3% for months, causing many at the Fed to worry that inflation had stalled." AMAZING BS. YES...it is true that core inflation as at 2.6%.....WELL BELOW....the expectation of 3%. A total POSITIVE. BUT....this little paragraph presents it as a negative. Than we see the "opinion BS" come into play as the statement is made that......"Core inflation had been stuck around 3% for months, causing many at the Fed to worry that inflation had stalled". WTF.....NO....core inflation is not "stuck" and it is not anywhere near 3%...it is at an annual rate of 2.6%. AND....there is absolutely NOTHING to support that inflation is "stalled". PLUS....the way this sentence is structured creates the psychological impression that inflation is "stalled" at 3%. Total falsehood......even if it is somehow the wishful thinking of the writer.
hmm, haven’t had a chance to check, but i feel like we’re mostly done with all of the big econ data points for the remainder of this year? if someone could quickly confirm that would be much appreciated. we got most if not all of the fomc hoopla out of the way, the delayed NFPs (nonfarm payrolls) from the gov’t shutdown were released, and now the CPI print today. earnings season almost entirely done for this year. is there anything else left that’s considered important or potentially market moving in these final days of 2025 that i may be missing? i feel like it should be a relatively quiet end to these final 2 weeks of the year. absent some shockingly bad news somewhere. imo santa has the green light to do his thang on this market. we shall see. anyway, it’s nice to see today’s rebound after 4 days of red. albeit the majors have been kind of backing off a bit from the day’s high throughout the afternoon. let’s see how this final hour shakes out. would be nice to get a close near 6800 for this week. then perhaps we can get our EOY santa rally to 6900ish to close out 2025. just my 2c. hope all of you had a good week!
Right at the same time I saw the slanted negative article above....on the same site...there were three more....negative slanted...articles at the top of the site. NOW....I see a total of five negative slanted articles on one site about the CPI data. Interestingly all the article further down the site that were put up when the numbers were released were slanted to the positive. Yes having looked at my account a minute ago....I have now backed off some of the prior gains......a bit. We need to hold on or strengthen into the close in about 1.25 hours from now.
As to the lack of info after today.....YEP.....but we will be in a very shallow market with most of the professionals on vacation. Just the sort of market environment that allows AI TRADING to have a more HUGE impact than normal. I am NOT looking forward to the upcoming 24 hour trading that will soon be the norm for stocks and ETF's.
As the gains continue to FADE.....here is something I am not looking forward to tomorrow. Friday could be a wild day of trading on Wall Street. Here’s why https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/friday-could-be-a-wild-day-of-trading-on-wall-street-heres-why.html "Key Points More than $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire this Friday, according to Goldman. December options expirations are typically the biggest of the year, but this one eclipses all prior records." The largest options expiration....EVER tomorrow. A quadruple witching day. Quadruple Witching Explained: Impact on Stock Market and Key Dates https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp
A nice BIG gain for me today...but only about 75% recovery of what I lost yesterday. Also a beat on the SP500 by 1.00%. If I can make up the other 25% tomorrow I might end the week with simply a....PUSH. As of the close today my entire account is at about +25%....YTD. I need to hang on till year end with no more loss in my total gain for the year. At this point every market day without a loss...is a big step forward to year end and a HUGE gain for 2025.
HERE is a post from a while back. I am hoping to add a gain for 2025 to this list in the range of about....+25%. You know I dont keep much data. I see it as BUSY WORK. All I keep for each year is how my Fidelity Contra Fund did for the year and how my SP500 Index fund did for the year. I have those numbers going back decades. I have not kept track of my annual gain or loss for my entire portfolio since the early 2000's. Today....I was thinking about how I have done since the start of this LONG TERM INVESTING record. When we hit year end for 2025....this thread will span EIGHT YEARS....from 2018 to 2025. I was curious so I took the time to go back and see what my entire portfolio return was for each of the years reflected in this thread. Over that time we have gone through a world wide pandemic, an economic shut-down, a nasty bear market, some boom years, many, many, corrections, and INNUMERABLE fear-mongered daily and weekly and monthly events. Even a BLACK SWAN or two. HERE are my REAL RESULTS for the years of this thread 2018.......(-7.4%) 2019.......+31.67% 2020.......+20.32% 2021.......+34.76% 2022.......(-21.91%) 2023.......+45.44% 2024........+65.31% 2025........+27.33% (YTD) Based on the above an annual average return for my entire portfolio for 2018 through 2025 (as it sits right now) is: +24.44%. A HIGHLY UNLIKELY and IMPROBABLE return. I will GLADLY take it....but this is a highly abnormal return. There is no way I expect to do this over the next 5-10 years or the rest of my life. It is just not sustainable or NORMAL. But as a fully invested all the time LONG TERM INVESTOR....I love this result. AND....I know there are others on here that are even higher...perhaps much higher. BUT...at the same time...I know and respect that this is not a NORMAL return figure. So I....DO NOT...expect returns going forward to match this high number. AND in spite of this data....my long term goal is to average 10% per year long term. I am NOT going to let my expectations run away with me. I am not going to chase returns. I will respect what the market gives me and avoid the DANGER of OUTSIZED EXPECTATIONS and the big emotional swings that can create for an investor.
