Thanks W for the above post. Young investors like me, need to get some perspective like this, because we were spoiled by massive returns in 2023 and 2024. I almost doubled my money in those two years. In 2025, I was +23% at some point, now sitting at +7,73% and keep thinking how this year was bad and slow. I remember J. Bogle's little book about investing, I've read it in 2021, the book was released in 2018 and he wrote that he is not very optimistic for the future returns in the markets, investors should aim for 4-6% return.
Here is a little article on market predictions.....we are in the prediction for 2026 time period right now. HINT.....most of them are WRONG. Cautioning the Clairvoyant https://www.indexologyblog.com/2025/12/18/cautioning-the-clairvoyant/ "Regardless of whether forecasts are top-down or bottom-up in nature, over one year or longer, history tells us that predicting future market performance may be a futile exercise"
Some good tips here...for the new year. 6 Simple Ways to Improve Your Investment Performance https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/6-simple-ways-to-improve-your-investment-performance/
A nice little review of 2025....actually a very successful year. Although it felt much worse to investors.....myself included. Rallies, Records and Relentless Restlessness: A Tale of Markets in 2025 https://www.indexologyblog.com/2025/12/15/factors-for-all-markets/ "Notwithstanding this year’s impressive returns, some market watchers may feel as I do—although the scoreboard is telling a different story, the year felt volatile and even like a downturn. Such sentiment makes sense in one respect: as the S&P 500 continued to rise, there was never any real let-up in tension during the year; trade-related worries gave way to concerns about the labor market, which then shifted to questions about the payoff of AI-related corporate investments." YES.....this year was a battle of emotions for investors. The market and the media constantly and relentlessly hammered us poor investors with negativity....even in the face of nice big gains.
The open today....not too bad. We open with all the big averages in the....GREEN. Nasdaq rises as AI trade tries to end year on high note https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
My New Years wish....these people need to STFU. They are NOT helping people and the country with their constant talking. "THEY" are distorting the national mood and the economy. NY Fed President Williams says some ‘technical factors’ distorted November’s CPI reading downward https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/ny-...distorted-novembers-cpi-reading-downward.html
A big picture BEAT....but....the China part of the whole......dominates and makes the beat irrelevant. Nike Sinks After China Sales Plunge, Delaying Turnaround Effort https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-sinks-china-sales-plunge-132907726.html
A (mostly) big picture BEAT....but....the China part of the whole......dominates and makes the beat irrelevant. Nike Sinks After China Sales Plunge, Delaying Turnaround Effort https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-sinks-china-sales-plunge-132907726.html
A good news story...but...this poor company is under constant attack and micro-management by outsiders including government. It would be nice if they were just left alone to do business and kick ass. US launches review of advanced Nvidia AI chip sales to China, sources say https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-us-launches-review-advanced-013853061.html
INSANE market action in this stock over the past 2-4 weeks. Oracle stock jumps 7% as cloud provider joins investor group to run TikTok’s U.S. business https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/oracle-stock-tiktok-us-trump-china.html
I am starting the day STRONG. I have five of seven stocks GREEN....and...NVDA and PLTR are up nicely to start the day. NVDA.....+3.34% PLTR......+2.87%
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE. For us it is Christmas Eve today. We will be doing our first Christmas tomorrow with Texas family. Next week we will go to Portland Oregon for our second Christmas with Oregon family.
One of my favorite Christmas songs and a great nostalgic video for people my age. The photos and images with the song REALLY bring back memories of my childhood. Spirit of Christmas - Ray Charles YOU can search for this video on YouTube....they will not let me post it. It is posted under the name.... "Melissa Grau"
BUMMER. November home sales struggle as supply stalls https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/november-home-sales.html "Key Points Housing inventory dropped 5.9% in November from October. The median price of a home sold in November, meanwhile, was $409,200, an increase of 1.2% from November 2024. Homes are staying on the market longer, at 36 days compared with 32 days last November."
My off the cuff view.....COST is a good buy right now for the long term....as the stock LINGERS near a 52 week LOW and is being severely BEATEN by the SP500 this year. Will 2026 Be a Winner for Costco? Here’s What History Says Will Happen https://247wallst.com/investing/202...r-costco-heres-what-history-says-will-happen/ "Costco (NASDAQ:COST) has faced a challenging 2025, marking one of its worst relative performances in over two decades. Today, the stock is down approximately 3.5% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained about 16.1%, creating a gap of 19.6 percentage points between the two. " MY COMMENT A great company....on sale right now.
My "prediction" for the SP500....made at the end of December 2024...is RIGHT ON. My "guess" was.....6800 to 6900. At this moment the REAL SP500 is at.....6831.
STRATHMORE.....my investing GOAL remains......10%. Even though my long term actual annual average return is way above that. I try to NOT let success take me away from REALITY. My other goal...beat the SP500 in any single year......a very difficult goal even for the professionals. AND...contrary to reality....I am achieving that goal in many years. "I"......and many of us on here are......AN ABERRATION. The main thing is you cant let good returns...even over decades...go to your head. Every year is a new start from ZERO. That is how I try to keep myself grounded. I try to always look FORWARD....not backward at past success.
well it’s nice to see this little recovery these past 2 days to close out what was otherwise a really dull week in the markets. we’re effectively right around where we started out the week. not too shabby. while there are still over 2 hours left in the trade day, hopefully there is no major fade into the close and we can hold onto a good chunk of these nice gains across the majors. i’m sticking to my guns here that we’ll get our santa rally. it might not be that noteworthy or significant though. and i know volumes will be on the extremely light side in these final days of the year, and as W pointed out yesterday this can have a notable impact with larger swings in either directions and whatnot. we will see. i think it will be nice for a change to be absent of the drumbeat of news that we’ve become so accustomed to hearing everyday. it should be a pretty quiet end to these final days of 2025, barring something absolutely disastrous out of left field. if we can close out today in the 6800’s on the cash S&P then i feel like this should bode well for an EOY santa claus rally to 6900 or so, which as W pointed out would fall right inline with his year end forecast which he made at the end of last year. really incredible stuff once again here W!
A very NICE day. No coal today or this week....at least for me. Today I had six of seven stocks nicely GREEN. COST was my only RED one. I got a nice BIG gain today. I also beat the SP500 by 1.24%. The past couple of days salvaged my week.
YES....the week that was. This week at the close today my entire account was at......+27.05%...year to date. Last Friday my entire account was at year to date.....+25.77%. LOVE IT....with ONLY.....seven market days left in year 2025.
