The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to COSTCO.......they had their worst year in terms of stock performance in 2025....of the last TWENTY YEARS. Of course there was a 39% gain in 2024......so....things are tending to average out.

    I like this little article....NOT....for the special dividend content which is outdated now....but for the other content taking about the business fundamentals of the company.

    Will Costco Announce a Special Dividend on Dec. 11?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-announce-special-dividend-dec-123231872.html

    For those that have not held this stock for a long time like I have.....I will say that I do NOT expect a booming year in 2026.....I dont see it as a probability......simply a "possibility".

    I expect that the stock will simply MUDDLE ALONG...at least for the first half of the year..... similar to 2025. The price per share is too high for a consumer retail stock. The REFUSAL of the company to consider a stock split is extremely FOOLISH. In my view a split of 5 for 1 or better 10 for 1.....would energize the stock.

    I LOVE.... COST stock....but...it is a long term hold. It is not going to operate as a go-go tech stock. I like to own it as a balance to all the tech companies that I own. I need exposure to the non-tech world and COST gives me that. I am NOT going to have my entire portfolio in TECH. That is why I have about 30% of my portfolio in the SP500 Index and Fidelity Contra Fund.

    I actually wish I had a few more non-tech companies to balance out the tech risk in my portfolio. BUT.....I am not willing to sell off my big tech and put those funds into other areas of business right now. AND....I have NO significant funds to add to my account now or into the foreseeable future since....I AM FULLY INVESTED NOW AND FOR THE FUTURE.

    Companies that I have an interest....and would call my little watch list for the future.... that are non-tech......WMT, PG, NKE, HD, BLK, SCHW. Most of these are pretty understandable.

    The one that some might be surprised to see here is.....NKE. I am still hopeful that their new management can pull off a good turn-around in the next year or two.
     
  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Of course, there has been quite a bit of chatter about this, with Munger passing and Buffett's recent retirement. Abel has been with BRK for a long time rising through the ranks, so he is likely very familiar with operations and such.

    It is big shoes to fill, but that would be so with anyone taking over after those two. I'll take the easy answer and state that it will take time to see. I am sure there are new ideas and thoughts and likely immense pressure to do well.

    Much of the opinion and media chatter has been it cannot be duplicated. I think the foundation has been set and Abel is greatly familiar with that. Is he going to do some things differently? Probably. I think most CEO's do when they take over. Continued success or lack of it will be determined by some of those decisions.

    I don't have BRK in my plan, but if I did, I think I would give it some time and evaluate things as it moves along. Abel has earned the trust and confidence of Buffett, so that means something going forward.
     
  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Amen. It is always important to research the information and then step away and evaluate your own plan and circumstances. Too many just simply copy or go along with stuff. Always look at your own roadmap. If you construct your plan for you and your own goals, you will most likely understand and stick with it.
     
  4. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes, they did well. I have held some international (broad index) a few times throughout my investing journey. During those times, I think they lagged my US allocation for the most part. They did okay and paid a decent dividend during my previous holding time.

    The last couple of years they have done differently. The interesting part will be if it continues to do so.
     
  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of "news" for the media to banter about this coming week.... Venezuela. Maybe they will have their eyes on that instead of the market. Never a dull moment it seems.

    Back to our business, the market. 2026 is here and we are on our way. Will we close out another banner year? Will we have to pay the price for the great ride we have been on? Time will tell. Our journey continues.
     
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  6. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    You know why stocks did amazing in 2025. Because when Trump did Tarrifs sold it off extremly deep start of year people got in and held and had by far the best years they ever had.

    I will be investing heavy in high dividend stock this year and holding.
     
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  7. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Haha :D:D:D

    37.2% for 2025. For doing nothing. Suck it, Wall Street hedge fund managers!!!
     
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  8. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Active Member

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    Happy New Year all :D

    Just catching up on the posts — I’ve been away for a while! We had a great time at Disney, but we all fell ill once we got home. We spent all of Christmas laid up in bed with an awful virus… talk about bad timing! Thankfully, we all recovered and had a nice week off together before returning to work today.

    Nice article posted, rg. It’s quite rare to see my little island mentioned in the mainstream media. I’m living on an island of ice today — we’ve had some very cold weather this week, and even some snow this morning. Very rare indeed!

    I did take note of my end-of-year gains and finished on 16.6%. I’ll happily take that.

    Here’s to another great year on Stockaholics — cheers, all!
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been tied up today with some little drama in an art group that I am on the Board. Not anything important and it was easily solved....but distracted me from the open today.

    I see we are green across the big averages....I suspect they were stronger at the open and have faded a bit....but dont really know... since I am typing this before looking at anything. In any event we start from....HERE.

    Good to see that LORI and her family had a good time at DISNEY. BUMMER about the virus. Sounds like you are having a wild time there with extreme weather. Your year end gain of 16.6%......VERY NICE......significantly above the long term average.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOTHING is ever new in the markets........there is never a "new normal". There is just people and investors forgetting or having no knowledge of the various aspects of the "old normal".

    Things Investors (Re)Learned in 2025
    Some lessons from the year that was.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/things-investors-relearned-in-2025

    Volatility goes both ways … quickly.

    "When markets are reeling quickly, the best course of action is usually to take a deep breath, assess the lay of the land and be rational."

    Currencies giveth and taketh away.

    ".....currency moves tend to even out over time as currencies ripple higher and lower in cycles, like sine waves (sorry). Currencies will add at times and subtract at others, but global diversification’s benefits stretch well beyond this."

    Nothing leads forever.

    "Leadership rotates, usually when few expect it. No one country (or sector, style, or, or, or) leads for all time."

    Don’t believe everything you read.

    "Concerns about the bull market’s breadth are greatly exaggerated. It is so much broader than seven companies."

    As to the last one......we are probably now at the point where tit should be......DONT BELIEVE ANYTHING YOU READ......at least in the media. The big lesson here......think big picture and long term.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As I was saying above......there is no "new Normal".....there is just the same old normal. After a while you will have seen all the various aspects of "normal". If you dont get too caught up in the DRAMA...created by the media and those that try to claim that something "NEW" is happening.....investing is much easier.

    UNFORTUNATELY......as humans we love complexity. We equate it with intelligence and we equate it with "doing something" or achievement. Most of the time it is simply......a waste of time.

    2025 Investing Lessons

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/2025-investing-lessons/

    "But here’s a little secret I’ve learned over time about investment lessons — they don’t really change.
    You could write these lessons ahead of time and simply pick and choose the ones that apply depending on the environment."
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice reason for the DOW rally today.

    Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chev...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I

    I really dont care about ANY of the media or political BS about Venezuela. ALL that matters to me is that....for the actual people that live in the country...this is a good opportunity for a better future. I could not care less what China or some communist or socialist group outside the country thinks.

    I guess I have a simplistic view of.....good and bad. And......In the end the people of Venezuela will decide their own future.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I posted an article a day ago about...."ACTIVE INVESTING and ACTIVE MANAGEMENT".....this is exactly what that article was talking about. In the end....the active managers will NOT be able to beat the general averages.....no matter how many articles like this you see. AND IN THE END......active investors will NOT beat those of us that are simple long term investing morons. AND...it will drive them crazy. The revenge of the...."little people".

    WHY THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR ACTIVE INVESTING
    Investors may go value hunting in 2026 as AI rally matures

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-may-value-hunting-2026-110434652.html
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Actually the VENEZUELA story is a good distraction for the massively SELF ABSORBED and NARCISSISTIC markets.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I start from here with five of seven stocks GREEN. The red are currently....MSFT and AAPL.

    COST and PLTR are both strong so far today.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So far ROADTONOWHERE08.....has the lead for 2025 with a return of.....+37.2%. A very successful.... but very risky... one stock strategy. Probably the only one that might have a shot at beating him is.... TireSmoke.

    The bottom line......EVERY ONE OF US......ALL the regular posters on here put up GREAT numbers for 2025. The results are ALL extremely individual based on how we each invest and what stocks and funds we own. It is NOT really a contest. We are ALL able to be successful....regardless of the success of others. NO....it is not a zero-sum-game.

    I CELEBRATE us all......and look forward to the SUCCESS we will all see in 2026.
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this article....various topics mixed together and discussed.....and....some great content and observations....for EVERYONE .....not just Baby Boomers.

    Baby Boomers: The Best Advice I Heard When I Was Young Still Applies Today

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/baby-boomers-best-advice-heard-135807626.html

    "Investing Is Simple, But Not Easy, At the Same Time"

    ......."I think the whole mantra around "time in the market beats timing the market" relies on a core principle many of us in this Instagram-heavy economy may not have worked on: patience.".......

    ......."In order for investors to see the kinds of returns investing gurus like Warren Buffett have seen over the years, it requires a level of patience I can only aspire to. Additionally, the fortitude to be able to step into really upside down markets and invest in companies when they're near the bottom is incredibly scary and involves plenty of risk. But as the saying goes, the reward ultimately goes to those who are willing to take the necessary risks."......

    ....."Being patient and simply holding on when the going gets tough is what generates the vast majority of returns for investors over the very long-term."....

    LOTS of other good content in this one little article.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND speaking of being patient.....I am not seeing any thing else to post right now so I will sign out. I have some important business to attend to......that business being:

    I HAVE A WAVE TO RIDE....IT IS CALLING MY NAME.....RIDING THE WAVE.....RIDING THE WAVE.
     
    #27540 WXYZ, Jan 5, 2026 at 11:15 AM
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2026 at 11:45 AM

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