The Long Term Investor

"BLAND"....is also a good term for the markets today.

S&P 500 ticks higher to another record, but rally this week loses some momentum

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

Here is what I consider a "better" take on the ADP jobs data. I take this as good news for more FED cuts this year. Although I believe that the FED is potentially going to sit tight till they get a new chair in about May. They will continue hopelessly infected with politics........although it is not open and blatant. Powell and the current FED have ABANDONED the markets and the economy over the past year. AND....worse......they have actually worked to actively TRASH both.

Private payrolls rose 41,000 in December, slightly below expectations, ADP says

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/adp-jobs-report-december-2025.html

"Key Points

• Companies added 41,000 hires for the month, a reversal from the loss of 29,000 in November, providing a positive sign to a labor market that otherwise struggled as 2025 came to a close.
• The final tally was slightly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 48,000.
• Payroll growth came entirely in services industries as education and health-related fields and from companies that employ fewer than 500 workers."

 

We have been in a 1-2 month time span of BLAND....LINGERING.....and NOTHING markets. We are also....nicely....in a time of ZERO meaningful financial news. Today is no exception.....I am finding nearly NOTHING of any interest to investors to post.

So I will revert to what matters.....stay LONG TERM and IGNORE THE NOISE.

Dont let the day to day BALONEY strip you of your confidence.....it will try to. Maintain VISION.

 

I am having a good day so far. As usual lately....five stocks green and two red. The red....COST and of course AAPL.

No doubt I am making some money with GOOGL, MSFT, and NVDA up nicely.

This will be day four of the markets in 2026.

So far I have been GREEN for 66% of ALL days in 2026. Of course that is only TWO days. We have a long, long, year ahead of us.

 

I have not looked at my account....but.....looking at one of my kids accounts that contains the same portfolio.....it is up by 0.59%.....YTD for 2026. Seems about right....so far.

 

I had a nice MEDIUM gain today. So I am now GREEN for 75% of all days in 2026. Lets just call it and end the year right now. I also beat the SP500 today by a nice....1.12%.

My "losers" today....COST and AAPL.

 

This morning I left about mid morning and did not get back till just now. It is so nice to miss out on the entire day.

 

I completely agree. NOT even close.

No, This Isn’t A Bubble

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/no-this-isnt-a-bubble/

 

The other bit of economic news today....JOLTS. Good to me.....since it will NOT impair more FED cuts.

Job openings in November fall to 7.1 million, missing forecasts, as hiring slows
Economists polled by Bloomberg had projected about 7.6 million openings for the month.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I

 

I have been siting and watching since about an hour before market open. I start with COST, AMZN, and GOOGL in the green right now. Actually NOTHING going on of any interest today....just a continuation of the short term.....BS.

Here is the market early today.

S&P 500 and Dow are little changed after pulling back from records

https://stockaholics.net/threads/the-long-term-investor.6179/page-1379

 

NOW....moving on to IGNORE the actual markets.....this little article is so correct. Talk about BS........sentiment polls. Not only are they WORTHLESS....they create dangerous emotion for investors that give them any thought. these sorts of "polls" are often simply WRONG and usually have ZERO predictive power. My view.....they are nothing more than a PR tool for various organizations to get their names into the media. There is NOTHING new in the disconnect between reality and these sorts of polls.....except for the fact that the 24/7 media now acts in concert to AMPLIFY this BS.

Scar Tissue and Consumer Sentiment
The divide between sentiment surveys and consumer data isn’t so unique—or troubling.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/scar-tissue-and-consumer-sentiment

"Consumers’ perceptions of the economy (as expressed in surveys like the University of Michigan’s or The Conference Board’s) are dire. But output metrics show growth and stocks hover near all-time highs. They sweat the alleged disconnect—and worry the sour sentiment is a harbinger of things to come. But a review of economic and market history reveals nothing noteworthy about this divide. Let us explore this.".......

 

MORE BS here. Market and other "predictions. Look at the list of predictions and actual outcomes in this article.....wrong, wrong, wrong. A basic example:

Question 1 – What will be the % total return of the S&P 500 in 2025?

Prediction: 6.5% (mean)

Outcome: 17.9%

Many, many, more examples of DELUSIONAL and wrong predictions by a large sample of so called "experts in this article. The bottom line.....as usual:

........."........people are constantly making predictions while being incurably afflicted with amnesia about the quality and content of their previous judgments. I was totally wrong last time, but you have to listen to me this time around.

The good news is that for most investors this is all irrelevant noise. Our long-term investment fortunes will not be defined by our ability to foresee what will happen in markets over the next quarter or year. They may, however, be defined by our ability to accept this and act accordingly."

 

I like this little article.

The Odds Are Changing: 2026 Is a Market for Investors, Not Gamblers

https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/investing-in-2026

BOTTOM LINE:

"......gambling in markets offers much worse odds than it did a few years ago. Investing, by contrast, still offers very good odds: owning durable income, strong balance sheets, and businesses on the right side of the productivity revolution, and then giving those positions time to compound. In our view, the opportunity now belongs to those willing to act like investors, not gamblers — leaning into selectivity, patience, and discipline in a market that is once again distinguishing between quality and everything else."

 

As I have been busy posting articles that talk about....."REAL".....investing and having a long term focus.....the markets have improved. The SP500 is now slightly green and the NASDAQ has now cut it's loss by about half. BUT.....my seven stocks....the same as before....three up and four down. BUT......I am probably very close to having a small gain or at least being flat.

I have not actually looked.....I am just not interested yet. The day and the media are focused on internal USA political issues and Venezuela. Trying as usual to......SUCKER....investors into focusing on the short term NOISE.

 

I would too. bottom line you can NOT trust China....in business or anything else.

Exclusive-Nvidia requires full upfront payment for H200 chips in China, sources say

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-nvidia-requires-full-upfront-060329066.html

 

I am.....OUT OF HERE....for now. I have exhausted the "stuff" that I consider relevant to......."real investors".

 

Looks like Strathmore and I are making some money on COSTCO lately. Today it is up by $42. Here is why.

A nice little BUMP today....but still a good ways off from the 52 week high. I will take it....progress and recognition of what the company is doing.....month after month and year after year.

"The warehouse chain reported December sales of $29.86 billion, an increase of about 9% from a year earlier. Results reflected steady customer traffic, strong performance overseas, and continued momentum in online shopping."

See the article for more results and data.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4101267/costco-stock-is-gaining-strong-holiday-sales-drive-momentum