The Long Term Investor

Hey Strathmore....you ARE making good money today.....especially if this gain has now moved you back to even.

What you are seeing with COST is just the reality of being a long term investor versus a market timer or trader. if you have a long term horizan......a bad single year is irrelevant.

 

TARIFFS.....yes they will be back in the news.....soon. The Supreme Court opinion will come out soon. Whatever they do will no doubt trigger a similar reaction to last April....massive fear-mongering....much speculative opinion....drama....and...in the end most if not none of it will turn out to be any big deal. In fact the ruling may trigger a nice RALLY......since we will have clarity going forward.

A US Trader’s Guide to the Supreme Court’s Looming Tariff Ruling

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trader-guide-supreme-court-120000501.html

What do I expect....about a 50/50 chance either way. I expect in the end it will not matter in a negative way at all for the markets. I expect that some of the tariffs will be continued under other legal authority on a case by case basis.

I also expect that the Republicans have at least one more reconciliation bill......in their future plans and it could be used to authorize ALL or MANY of the tariffs. I say this as NON-POLITICAL.....simply a statement of fact. I believe waiting for this ruling is one reason they have not done a second big tax reconciliation bill yet.

As I said in the end probably a NON-EVENT.....other than the fact that investors will have to sit through all the TOTAL BS that will engulf the media for a week or two.

 

I had a medium....small loss today. I never changed all day....COST, AMZN, and GOOGL green and the rest in the red. I also got beat by the SP500 today by....0.52%.

Last day of the first full week of 2026....tomorrow.

 

Here is the market at the close today. AND.....NO....a one day dip in tech is not a....."sector rotation". This is the IDIOCY that passes for financial journalism now.

Dow closes 270 points higher, Nasdaq slips as investors rotate out of tech

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

YES....just like ALL market superstitions and market myths. Humans and their brains are always looking for and seeing patterns.

January Is a Month, Not a Market Indicator
Don’t let historical averages determine your investment decisions.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/january-is-a-month-not-a-market-indicator

 

Housing just like stocks......it is a LONG TERM game. If you buy a house you will "probably" make money....but it is a long term asset.

"The stock market is the best casino on the planet. The longer you play, the higher your odds of walking away a winner, the opposite of an actual casino."

SAME.....with buying and owning a house.

Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-a-house-still-a-good-investment-right-now/

THE PROBABILITY FOR STOCKS:




AND OWNING A HOUSE:

 

See a trend above? it is all about being a long term person and investor......whether buying a house or stocks.

Meanwhile what are your odds when it comes to....trading, speculating, flipping, and gambling? Give it a try if you want to find out.......but count me out.

 

The economic news of the day......good enough..... but not up to expectations. Distorted and untrustworthy data as usual.

U.S. payrolls rose 50,000 in December, less than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.4%

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/jobs-report-december-2025.html

"Key Points

• Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for 73,000.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, compared with the forecast for 4.5%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed dropped to 8.4%.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month, in line with the forecast, although the annual increase of 3.8% was 0.2 percentage point higher than expected."

 

NO....tariff decision today.

I saw some STUPID articles today acting like it was a sure thing. NO...that is not how it works. Opinions can NEVER....be predicted to be released with any certainty. A little media FRENZY....based on speculation and NOTHING. What a bunch of.....FOOLS.

 

The open today.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as jobs report seals rate bets, with SCOTUS tariff ruling in focus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-scotus-tariff-ruling-in-focus-234631324.html

 

ONLY....two stocks green for me to start the day.....GOOGL and COST.

 

Now that the Supreme Court drama is shot down.....there is NOTHING of any interest to the markets today. A basic....lingering, wobbling....day for the markets.

They continue to be STUCK in the mud....same old self-loathing and fearful markets...... that we have had to sit through for the past couple of months.

The most successful and largest companies in the world continue to be.....disrespected.

Look at NVDA.......their entire earnings and sales runway of the next 5 years......totally ignored and discounted. This is now reality for the company and investors.

Truth, no....but reality, yes. A perfect example of.....BS over truth.....and how this can trash what should be a BOOMING investment. I NOW have no doubt that investors will NOT see much of the massive gains that should by all accounts be the norm over the next five years with NVDA stock. YES...there will be gains....but not near the levels that should exist.

Welcome to the world where FUNDAMENTALS and future probable FUNDAMENTALS...... do not matter.

 

OldManRam....a blast from the past. Drop in once in a while.

BUT.....I believe I have had AMZN, GOOGL, and AAPL for a very long time. NVDA....I think I first bought in 2020......I would have to look at my account.

Stocks that I have eliminated over the years:

Boeing
Chevron
Home Depot
Honeywell
Johnson & Johnson
Nike
3M

I also briefly have owned a few....."trial stocks".....over the past years like WMT and CMG and a few others....that did not stick.

 

When the markets are SPOOKED.....there will be one primary reason.....the relentless 24/7 negativity of the....you guessed it....MEDIA. It is now ALL opinion, opinion opinion.....by FOOLS and many with no real knowledge or experience. It has just degenerated into....Social Media.

Why the stock market could easily get spooked

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-stock-market-could-easily-get-spooked-141851722.html

 

Thanks for the good thoughts....oldmanram.

Looks like you did well last year. You and your family......have a great 2026.....in Washington state. Think of us when you are out there cruising that big yacht on the Puget Sound.

AND.....cheer for my....former PAC 12..... Oregon Ducks today....although I dont think they have very good odds of winning tonight.