The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Active Member

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    Strathmore and WXYZ like this.
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I might also.

    But....there will be plenty of opportunity to get into this stock after the IPO. There is often a drop after the initial excitement of the IPO. If you look at the history of any great IPO....there are always good buying points over the first 1-2 or more years.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Superstition.....if you look at the data here there is a PROBABILITY of an UP market for the year regardless of the result in January.

    So Goes January, So Goes the Year

    https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/so-goes-january-so-goes-the-year/

    Bottom line conclusion:

    "Big picture, though, we remain optimistic, and no, we don’t blindly invest only in how January does, but we think this is yet another clue this bull market is alive and well."

    AND as a long term fully invested all the time person......for me it simply does not matter.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I start the day with two stocks UP....COST and PLTR. NVDA, MSFT and others are getting trashed today in spite of very nice earnings to date from big tech.

    Regardless of gains or losses.....we are stuck in a nasty market for big tech. Any good news is simply IGNORED.....good earnings, new all time highs, positive announcements......the markets dont care. We have been stuck in this situation since about September or October.

    In my view the MAJORITY of this is caused by MEDIA. The constant daily....negative.... stories about AI are disrupting the normal markets. What is crazy is....I see the media take as TOTALLY wrong.

    There is not going to be some sudden.....BOOM.....payoff or recognition of the benefits of AI. The benefits and pay-off are going to simply happen gradually over the next 2-5 years as companies ramp up capability and embed AI into everything.
     
    #27986 WXYZ, Feb 3, 2026 at 10:11 AM
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2026 at 10:20 AM
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above....MSFT....down by (-12.64%) YTD. NVDA down by......(-4.85%) YTD. AAPL....down by (-0.75%) YTD.....PLTR down by (-6.85%) YTD.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The Ten Year Yield.....about 4.85%. Going the wrong direction. BUMMER.

    I guess rate cuts do NOT mean lower rates.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So far....looks like another wasted day for the markets. Perhaps we will see some change later in the day as common sense hits.

    We will get the final two earnings reports from big cap tech Wednesday and Thursday.....from GOOGL and AMZN. Well that is....except for the big one NVDA....which reports in about 3-4 weeks.

    The above posts are about all I am finding of any interest today....so far.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just for fun look at the latest MSFT earnings. Now consider MSFT stock

    5 days..........(-14.00%)
    1 month.......(-12.63%)
    3 month.......(-20.22%)
    6 month.......(-21.17%)
    1 year...........(-0.51%)

    Looks like a very nice long term buy to me....but what do I know. AND.....emphasis on...."LONG TERM"......there will be MORE short term pain. Yes...it is irrational and not in line with strong earnings......but that is just where the markets are right now. I attribute this to one thing......poor messaging by company management.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I cant fix the short term markets.....and....I cant fix STUPID. AND...that is where we are in the markets....mired in STUPIDITY.

    I remain fully invested for the long term as usual. So I will simply sit and watch the markets continue to flail around. I hate to see a very good earnings and market environment being wasted......but there is nothing I can do about it.

    As an observer of human behavior and market behavior......it is interesting times.

    Bottom line....the little retail investors are hanging in there as usual.....but....we are stuck in a nasty 3-4 month trend....that represents a BIG disconnect from business REALITY.

    At this point as usual....I simply dont care. The short term is simply.....BORING....and not something I am interested in or care about. So I will......

    IGNORE and ENDURE and spend my time and focus elsewhere.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is my definition of STUPIDITY.....MSFT.....down by (-21%) over the past six months. Here are the last three earnings reports that cover that time span.


    Microsoft stock pops 9% on earnings beat as Azure annual revenue tops $75 billion
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2025.html

    Microsoft stock drops on forecast for increased spending growth this year (in spite of a big BEAT)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/microsoft-msft-q1-2026-earnings-report.html

    Microsoft stock drops 7% on slowing cloud growth, light margin guidance (in spite of a big BEAT)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/microsoft-msft-q2-earnings-report-2026.html

    IGNORE the headlines above and look at the....REAL DATA. This is absolute market STUPIDITY. This is why I say...."FOR ME".... this stock is a BIG BUY right now.

    BUT keep in mind that is predicated on one thing....being a long term investor in this stock and the markets in general.

    AND.....keep in mind...... I DO NOT GIVE INVESTING ADVICE TO OTHERS ON HERE. So....when I say I see it as a BIG BUY........I am NOT recommending that readers on here buy the stock. "YOU".....have to do your own research and make your own decisions.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above....at this point.......(INSERT My USUAL RANT)..... about what happens to the markets when they become disconnected from and refuse to accept or even see fundamental business data (earnings).
     

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