As usual.....the enemy to good investing is.....US and our human BRAIN. Stick to What You Know https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/04/stick-to-what-you-know/ "Managing our behavior as investors is about subduing some of our most human urges – urges that are useful in many contexts but typically disastrous for long‑term investment decision-making."
The economic news of the day.....which no one will care about. US weekly jobless claims unchanged; layoffs decline 55% in February https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unchanged-134153805.html
ALWAYS one of the last to report. OR.....are they one of the first to report? I dont know....and dont really care....I just want to see a good BEAT today. COSTCO reports after the bell today.
This is a very good news based article on TECH NEWS......today. A nice summary. Tech stocks today: Nvidia stops H200 chip production, Anthropic restarts talks with Pentagon https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...c-restarts-talks-with-pentagon-135928945.html
Well we are now open.....and....all the big averages start in the RED. BUT....way better than the futures indicated. I am encouraged by the mild red open and see a good possibility of another green day....eventually. It is another mild news day with NOTHING really going on of any relevance to investors.
I had a small loss today....my three green stocks helped....MSFT, MZN, AND NVDA. I also beat the SP500 by 0.32%.
HERE is my COST earnings today. Costco tops Wall Street’s sales and revenue expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/costco-cost-earnings-q1-2026.html A pretty good picture in this article of a company operating....full steam ahead. A very NICE earnings report. Thirty new stores per year for future years......is really nice to see. They do not give full year guidance. AND...yes as I type this the stock is down in the after-hours markets. EXACTLY what you would expect for a very BROAD earnings BEAT.
Some very nice investing research here. The Magnificent 7 and the Myth of Concentration Why Diversification Still Matters https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/the-magnificent-7-and-the-myth-of INCLUDING: 1. Don’t Chase Recent Winners Based on Past Performance Alone 2. Concentration Adds Risk Without Long-Term Reward 3. Short-Term Underperformance Doesn’t Mean Diversification Has Failed 4. Risk Management Matters as Much as Returns 5. Factor Exposures and Industry Bets Aren’t Permanent Advantages The author concludes: "there’s no reason to expect the current concentration to become “the new normal.” Smart investors should resist the siren call of chasing concentrated bets on recent winners and stick to the time-tested principle that diversification still matters—perhaps now more than ever." MY COMMENT It is not discussed much BUT....I do have a large chunk of my portfolio in the SP500 Index and the Fidelity Contra fund. It is a balance to my stock picking.
One of the stories of the day.....as the markets sink. The media focus on negativity is now EPIC. Every day it is something. We just about NEVER see a positive......media....story line of the day now. It is a constant fight for the markets to create any positivity. Global oil benchmark Brent crude breaks above $90 a barrel amid Iran war, U.S. crude tops $88 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us-war-oil-prices-brent-wti-barrel-futures.html
The other market driving negative story of the day. Although I totally discount this story as having any real relevance. When you look at the January data is is once again CLEAR that this data is so corrupt and unreliable that it is MEANINGLESS. U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4% https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html
The negative media, market killing, story line of a week or two ago. Putting the Latest Private Credit Implosion in Perspective Why another private-credit lender’s collapse isn’t a canary in the coal mine. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...atest-private-credit-implosion-in-perspective "Concerns about the financial system’s health—especially when headlines tie this volatility to other, unrelated areas (e.g., the software industry’s selloff or AI fears at large)—are the latest example of fearful sentiment overshadowing greed this year."
Some good advice about preparing for outcomes and indirectly.....RANDOM LIFE. Preparing Without Predicting https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/preparing-without-predicting/ "You accept uncertainty as the starting point. You set expectations. You build a wide range of results into your plan. You create a rules-based plan. You focus on what you control. You extend your time horizon. You diversify across scenarios. You make course corrections along the way."
NO....this positive article is NOT about oil...in spite of the headline. The Global Economy Is Well Oiled Defying gloom, the world economy is in a credit upswing. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/the-global-economy-is-well-oiled "Around the world, credit markets are humming. That highlights how, looking ahead, growth likely extends, which undercuts so many worries we see swirling endlessly through the press. And with reality set to continue overtaking expectations, we remain bullish."
No reason to discuss anything else today....the short term is now a WASTELAND of negativity...day after day. It is relentless....as the media mines for clicks and the AI traders push the markets down with their massive number of trades.
As I scanned ALL my usual sites....I see NOTHING about the COSTCO earnings BEAT. Of course....it would be a positive story....so why give it any space. You know I have been investing and following the markets and market behavior for over 55 years now. I have NEVER SEEN this kind of every day negativity in market commentary....until about the last 2-6 years. This is NOT something I have ever seen before in market coverage. In the past market coverage was done by....PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTERS. Journalists with much experience reporting on business and stocks. What was talked about day to day was....BUSINESS. I have seen many, many, many......supposed NEW NORMALS...come and go over my investing decades. Unfortunately I see the current extreme negative media coverage of the markets as a NEW NORMAL......that is not going to go away. In fact as always...it will only get worse. The current negativity environment....has NOTHING to do with investing or business....for the most part. It is simply RAMPANT sensationalism. We will find out in about 10-20 years....what impact this is going to have on market returns. Till than.....IGNORE IT ALL.....if you can stand the pressure. Fortunately the average little retail investos
As we have seen over the past three days....a BIG RED...market open and improvement from there. ALL the big averages are now STILL RED....bus significantly improved. I have personally now improved to a.....small loss for the day. I now have high hopes for the markets to continue to improve into the day today. We have seen a HUGE amount of retail buying in the markets over the past week or two. Actual investors....versus the speculators, Hedge funds and AI traders......are buying this dip...BIG TIME. No doubt it will pay off as usual long term.
INFLATION....lets talk TURKEY. First the MADE UP FEd target of 2% is the height of stupidity. It is amazing that we dont use the actual inflation that we have seen during times of good economic growth and performance for what is "NORMAL" inflation. In addition the items that we use for measuring inflation includes this RIDICULOUS item.....OER.....Owners Equivalent Rent. This FANTASY data....severely skews the reported inflation....higher than it actually is. AI tells me: "Imputed rent data in inflation statistics refers primarily to Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), a calculation representing roughly 23-24% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Instead of actual cash transactions, the BLS estimates what homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. Key Aspects of Imputed Rent in Inflation Data: Definition of OER: OER measures the implicit rent homeowners would receive if they rented out their homes, using survey questions asking, "If you were to rent out your home, how much do you think it would rent for?". Why It's Used: It is used to separate the investment aspect of homeownership from the consumption aspect (the cost of shelter). Impact on Inflation: Because OER is based on perceived value rather than market-driven, new lease prices, it often acts as a lagging indicator, causing official inflation to remain high even when market rents begin to cool. Total Shelter Component: Together, rent of primary residence (actual rent) and OER (imputed rent) make up over 30% of the total CPI. Lag Effect: The BLS data relies on a survey of 40,000 units, but only updates a portion of the data every six months, meaning it takes time for current market rent drops to appear in the official index. While not "made up" in a fraudulent sense, OER is a heavily imputed, modeled data point designed to estimate the cost of housing services for homeowners, often contributing to higher inflation readings when housing markets are hot."
Here is some background on.....OER. Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER): Definition and Relationship to CPI https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/owners-equivalent-rent.asp
