The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Ya ...... Right
    I hear that "The sky is falling" crap on a radio show every weekend, they sell some form of Insurance / Annuity's ..........
    I have often thought of taking them up on the offer of "Assessing your Portfolio"
     
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  2. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Gotta crap on it so you can buy the dip.
     
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  3. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Such awful decisions :p

    Normally I'd say let the winners run, but Micron is in a pretty boom-bust area of the market. RAM shortages are not something that the market will tolerate for too long, and China is really ramping up production. It's a capacity issue and not an IP issue like what afforded NVDA it's moat for so long.

    It's totally up to you, but perhaps sell some and have some fun :cool:
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TYPICAL.....about half this article....the first half is TRUTH. Than it degenerates into basic fear-mongering....based on rediculous BS.

    The MEDIA should give up on the STUPID 1999...market dot-com crash CRAP. That was over 27 years ago......and most of the companies that were booming back than were nothing more than a web-site and a name.

    Wall Street says stock market euphoria has echoes of 1999, but a firmer foundation

    https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/a...f-1999-but-a-firmer-foundation-180757836.html

    ....."But Emanuel and his team point out that enthusiasm in 2026 is built on a firmer foundation than the dot-com era.

    In 1999, “dot-com darlings” traded at a median price-to-earnings multiple of around 152 times, meaning investors paid $152 for every $1 of profit. Today's "AI Class of 2026" trades at roughly 39 times earnings.".....

    After the above the article DETERIORATES into the basic fear mongering based on 1999....even quoting....you guessed it.....MR A-HOLE.

    These FEAR-MONGERS are relentless.

    AND.....what is the point of the NEGATIVE portion of this article.....should you be market timing? Should you sell everything? Should you be "trading in and out? Should you be GAMBLING in the prediction markets?

    ANY....alternative to long term investing and AVOIDING market timing has been proven by the research to be a sure LOSER for the vast majority of investors.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above.....UNFORTUNATELY the MEDIA and other MARKET MANIPULATORS will still be hammering on......the 2008 derivative based collapse......the 1999 dot-com crash.....and even the 1984 flash-crash.......20, 30, 50 years from now.

    Not to mention the articles we see once in a while talking about the.....GASP....great depression. Which was nearly.....ONE HUNDRED....years ago.

    WHAT MORONS.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....all the big averages are slightly GREEN. Actually a HUGE victory for the markets considering the Iran headlines over the weekend.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to Oldmanram......I have zero knowledge of Micron.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A moral victory for me in the markets today. I had a single GREEN stock....NVDA. BUT...that single stock held me to only a tiny.....small loss in my stocks. I did get beat by the SP500 today in my stocks by.....0.28%.

    I dont know what stocks were UP....with all the big averages closing in the green....but it was not what I own.

    BUT....I am actually very HAPPY with how I ended today. With the Iran headlines over the weekend I expected the NASDAQ to be down by 200 to 300 points today. How we held up today is a very NICE indicator of the STRENGTH in the markets....especially if you strip out IRAN.

    LOOKING FORWARD TO TOMORROW.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The markets today are what I expected to see yesterday. The story below is part of the RED today....but....NOT something Ii care about in the slightest. ALL economic data right now is suspect and totally DISTORTED by.......IRAN.

    Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES IT DID.

    The Most Hated Market Just Made New Highs

    https://trendlabs.com/the-most-hated-market-just-made-new-highs/

    "The market just wrapped up April with the S&P 500 at fresh all-time highs. Same thing for the Nasdaq 100, the Dow, mid caps, small caps, even the tiny little micro-caps nobody pays attention to.

    That’s not what a weak market looks like.

    The trend in U.S. stocks is up, and not just in the handful of names people on TV scream about all day. We’re talking about broad participation across sectors, across market caps, and, increasingly, the entire world."......
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    There is NOTHING for me today in the markets or the content. Mostly politics......and....IRAN. I put the CPI data in the IRAN category.

    It is a day when fundamentals and business are IRRELEVANT. A day when market control is broad themes that have NOTHING to do with actual business or stocks. In other words a MEDIA driven short term oriented day.

    AND....for me...a Waste of time to pay any attention to.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have TWO green stocks right now....COST and AAPL.

    Sitting and waiting for a wave....caught up in a little rip-tide.
     
  14. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    WXYZ's article on Wall Street says stock market euphoria has echoes of 1999, but a firmer foundation...

    the following numbers were taken from AI generated information, if you find a incorrect value, please correct me.

    During the dot-com bubble (approx. 1995–2000), many internet company earnings were non-existent, negative, or rapidly shrinking, even as their stock prices surged based on speculative future profits and revenue growth rather than traditional profitability. The Nasdaq Composite peaked in March 2000 with an unsustainable price-earnings (P/E) ratio near 200, about 180 P/E representing massive overvaluation

    AS of now in the Nasdaq

    As of May 11, 2026, the P/E ratio for Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is approximately 26–28. The trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E is reported around 26.78, with a forward P/E around 22.83, suggesting a slight improvement in valuation compared to the early 2026 average of 32.07

    How can you compare the two markets ? Non existent earnings vs actual earning's
    The valuations are high , but a pullback of 25% would be more in line, rather than a Dot Com bubble crash of 77%
    That 25% would be my maximum CRASH pullback
     
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  15. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    As for today all I can say is OUCH, so far
    And with my tech heavy portfolio the saying that comes to mind is
    "Live by the sword, Die by the sword"
    I am down 1.78% at 9:36 Pacific time

    Micron is down 10% or $78.00/ share
    Sold a few shares yesterday @ $804.XX
    Just enough for a little graduation gift to my youngest daughter, who graduated from
    Gonzaga University yesterday, with honors, 4 cords, as well as this years recipient of Gonzaga's
    International Scholar Award.
    She obviously rolled far ahead from her tree of origin. :hmm:
     
    #29335 oldmanram, May 12, 2026
    Last edited: May 12, 2026
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Great job....you and your daughter.....Oldmanram.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had a nice day IGNORING the markets. Lunch at Estancia.....than grocery shopping at HEB for the month, and than home. Just in time to see the close and check my account.

    AMAZINGLY...I was in the GREEN with my stocks today thanks to only three of them....NVDA, COST, and AAPL.

    Those three also gave me a BEAT on the SP500 with my stocks today....0.40%.

    AND....I am NOW..... GREEN for this week to date. Not by much.....but better than RED.
     
    #29337 WXYZ, May 12, 2026
    Last edited: May 12, 2026
  18. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    That is truly amazing WXYZ !!
    I ended the day DOWN 0.62% ....Far better than I was this morning when I was DN ... 1.78%

    I can't seem to find a good story on the reason for today's tech/S&P decline BUT multiple stories
    Have mentioned that a South Korean Official floated a 3% AI tax on all tech items and using it as a People's Dividend
    Some Investor's reacted thinking this may gain traction in other countries reacted.....

    South Korea official floats AI profit social tax as tech giants boom
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/south-korea-floats-ai-profit-053332897.html

    With the PROJECTED profit's looking like a fountain of money, this sort of thinking is going to be making the rounds in countries and governments around the world.
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW....I have not been following NIKE at all. I just say it comes across the ticker at.....$42 per share. What a disaster....their old management created for this......formerly.....amazing company.

    I am not saying I would buy it here.....I would probably have to see at least one more round of earnings with some indication that the price FALL is over. BUT....what a disaster. DOWN by 36% in the last six months.....down by 20% in the last year AND....the big one...down by a WHOPPING 70% in the last five years.

    Nike’s 65% 3-Year Plunge Could Lead to 41% Upside Today

    https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nike-65-3-plunge-could-131330647.html

    Above is....one possible future. BUT....as I said I am NOT considering this stock. They have a lot of clean up work to do with the DISASTER that years of disconnected and moronic management imposed on this once glorious company. This company is a perfect example of what happens when management loses focus on the ACTUAL business of the company and goes off on all sorts of non-business related BS.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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