Spot WTI is one thing, lets see just how long it takes the national average (all grades) to dip to $2.92 , just like inflation, I bet that last little bit takes a while. And up here in the "tax you till you bleed" part of the US (Washington State) , we never will see that price , until #1 hell freezes over, or , #2 we get another pandemic.
The trick is "how to pick the winners"! I would love to go and see Professor Bessembinder interview in Morningstar Investment Conference! Maybe next time...
+ Unless I had an endless supply of cash, this is easier said than done, I still find it hard to push all my chips in, and I, like you, have enough money to last out my years. In the case of Micron, when I bought it, I got very, very lucky, it was on my short list of stocks to buy, when the Pandemic hit, and everyone was buying up laptops like they had an expiration date, it was a pretty easy choice, all the CPU stocks had already been run up, and I had done a lot of research on INTEL (it wasn't doing very at that time), knowing a little about computers, I knew it takes RAM/ storage to run those computers as well, I made my leap of faith to memory before the prices for those went sky high as well, about March 20th 2020. That's how I ended up with MICRON. IF , IF I had put all my chips in, and made a commitment to the tune of a mid $100K multiple, I would have been sitting on somewhere between $9-$12 million right now. I am not going to look a gift horse in the mouth and complain, I am very satisfied with my Capitol Gain, and very grateful for "MY LUCK". BUT, alas, I didn't go ALL IN, Soooo , it goes to my "I wish I bought more jar" where it joins , MICROSOFT, AAPL, NVIDIA, AMD, GOOGL, XLK and SMH all of which have had over 250% growth in my accounts. And GOOGL has had over 1,200% growth in my account.
[QUOTE="rg7803, post: 200009, member: 15"]The trick is "how to pick the winners"![/QUOTE] MGK is about 65 of the Largest Mega Cap companies out there. You could research the companies that made money and compare that to what MGK owns, I do know this, MGK has continually outperformed VOO and VOOG and SPY over the last 5 years.
Lori, Hope you have a big house....I'm going to bring my daughters ........... I'm getting to old for a PUB CRAWL !!
Hey OldManRam...by "all in all at once"....I mean investing ALL your allocated money for that stock....all at once. NO dollar cost averaging or waiting for an entry point. Nothing to do with the amount of money. NOW...in my recent MU purchase in the two largest portfolios I did put enough in to make it a NORMAL size position...a full holding......right off the bat. In my context....even someone with only $100 to invest can go....all in all at once....if they invest the $100....immediately when they decide to buy a particular stock....versus...dollar cost averaging in in a bit at a time or waiting for a better price. The research shows that getting your money to work in a GOOD stock immediately....beats those that dollar cost average or wait for a buy point.....even in you buy all in...at a market high. Of course this is talking about a...... long term investing.....situation.
On this topic.....AI TELLS ME.....what I allready have read in many studies: "Historical research heavily favors investing a lump sum immediately, which outperforms dollar-cost averaging (DCA) roughly two-thirds to 75% of the time. Because markets generally trend upward, giving your money the maximum time in the market allows for longer compounding and higher overall expected returns." The Vanguard paper: "The Vanguard Research Paper, July 2012 In the Vanguard white paper, they compared the historical performance of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) with lump-sum investing (LSI) across three markets: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. On average, Vanguard found that an LSI approach outperformed a DCA approach approximately two-thirds of the time, even when results are adjusted for the higher volatility of a stock/bond portfolio versus cash investments. This finding was consistent with the fact that the returns of stocks and bonds exceeded that of cash over the study period in each of these markets. Vanguard concluded that if an investor expects such trends to continue, is satisfied with his or her target asset allocation, and is comfortable with the risk/return characteristics of each strategy, then the prudent action is investment of the lump sum immediately to gain exposure to the markets as soon as possible. But if the investor is primarily concerned with minimizing downside risk and potential feelings of regret (results from lump-sum investment immediately before a market downturn), then DCA may be of use. Of course, any emotionally based concerns should be weighed carefully against both (1) the lower expected long-run returns of cash compared with stock and bonds, and (2) the fact that delaying investment is itself a form of market-timing, something few investors succeed at. Bottom line applications Dollar-cost averaging is a proven effective method to invest in world markets regardless of what the investment climate may be – bull or bear The Vanguard study concludes that utilizing an LSI approach vs. a DCA approach improves an investor’s long-term return two-thirds of the time The conclusions of the study were consistent over both a 36-month and a rolling 10-year period. Feelings of regret and loss are valid emotional considerations and despite the evidence that LSI may produce superior longterm results, the emotional component may trump the logical component."
I prefer to take those......66% of the time to 75% of the time of the time....odds, all day long. BUT..... Bottom line...it is up to EACH investor to invest in whatever way fits their personality and emotional make up. EVERYONE has to do what works for them.
Yeah OldManRam...about your gas prices and your state.......I can say this since I lived there 32 years.....you will be lucky to....EVER...... get down to our current gas prices here in Texas.....which I saw today at $3.19.
LOL.....that is a 15-20 year holding. I guess it is the ultimate.....all in immediately at IPO. History tells me that sooner or later I will be underwater......but......I will hopefully hold through it. I am not anywhere that I can look....but I think my average cost per share is about $158. So I still have a cushion. I do think ELON was smart to push 20% and more....of the stock to retail investors. I think the retail investors will help to keep the stock more stable and from ending up as a short term trading vehicle. AND...like a lot of people I am betting on ELON........as a FANATIC. if he ever loses control of the company.....the new management will GUT IT and sell all the pieces to....create shareholder value.
Here is the potential RISK of a stock like MU.....for anyone considering it. ......"The Risk You Are Taking On When Markets Break Before buying a stock at a peak, you should always look at how it behaves during a valley. Micron’s history here is a lesson in volatility. During the 2022 inflation shock, the stock fell 50%, double the S&P 500’s 25% decline. In the 2020 pandemic crash, it dropped 43% versus the market’s 34% fall. And in the 2008 global financial crisis, it lost a striking 88% of its value, far worse than the S&P 500’s 57% drop. In each case, the stock eventually recovered, but the drawdowns were significantly deeper than the broader market. This isn’t just ancient history; the options market today is pricing in an implied volatility of 94, which is in the 94th percentile. That suggests traders are braced for continued large price swings.........." So I guess the bottom line question is......are we going to see a NEW NORMAL during the AI era for companies like MU. Will they break out from being a.....cyclical commodity....business.
That remains to be seen. Memory is undergoing a huge surge in demand (obviously), and I anticipate that will not go away, but I remain skeptical that memory makers are going to be able to command such price premiums for much longer. The reason is that, unlike big AI GPUs and associated hardware bought by enormous datacenter clients with deep pockets, RAM and NAND (and all associated memory) are things that the average consumer needs in their consumer devices. Those consumer device manufacturers will not tolerate such disruptions to the supply chain and will either pressure memory makers to rapidly ramp up production or look to Chinese memory. Based on what I have read, this is already being talked about and implemented. Now if we want to talk about bleeding edge memory used in GPU/CPU packaging and such used by deep pocketed clients, well, that's a different story, as whoever has the best product and IP calls the shots (at least while they are on top). In this case, a deep dive into who would come out on top there might be looking into, but would it really be the majority of a company like Micron's bottom line? I'm not so sure. Those who made bank on Micron and Sandisk, I salute you, and, in hindsight, it was an obvious medium term play, but I am hesitant to wade into the memory market now for the first paragraph's reasoning. I see this as something that cannot last. Nobody can build a frickin' computer due to RAM prices. The market will correct that aberration. It has to.
I did not know about MGK when I went with VOO and VUG years ago. I wonder how long it would take to make up the loss in capital gains if I switched over. Might not be worth the trouble. Oh well.
YES....it really is this simple. For many if not MOST people this is how you achieve family wealth. Active Management’s Persistent Failure: A 2025 Perspective https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/active-managements-persistent-failure-e2e ....."The data is unequivocal: active management’s persistent failure is not a temporary phenomenon, but a structural reality. Whether you are an individual investor deciding where to allocate your savings or an advisor helping clients navigate their options, the evidence points in one direction. For investors, the prudent path remains clear—embrace low-cost, systematically managed funds and let the odds work in your favor."......
