I noticed there wasn't a thread yet so hope it's okay with @T0rm3nted if I put this up for this week. Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 21st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Tuesday 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices Wednesday 10:00 a.m. New home sales Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales Friday 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole 3:00 p.m. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole
'Bannon Bounce' Fails To Correct 'Cohn Crash' As Nasdaq Drops For 4th Straight Week Well that was a week... Roller-coaster day for stocks - 2 overnight pump efforts failed; stocks sank into and beyond the US cash open, then went bid as Bannon headlines hit... only to slide as reality struck that with Bannon gone, the probability of war is considerably higher...and an ugly close into OPEX All major cash indices close lower today... as it appears no one wants to hold risk into the weekend... VIX across all major indices rose on the week... Small Cap stocks actually dipped into the red year-to-date in this morning's initial flush, before bouncing on Bannon headlines... But Gold's gains this week pushed it ahead of The Dow for 2017... The last time Nasdaq fell for 4 straight weeks was May 2016 The S&P 500 remains below its 50DMA finding support at its 100DMA (2418)...NOTE - S&P has not been this close to its 100-day moving-average since the election Financials were unable to hold on to gains after Bannon, Tech eked out a small gain on the week. Energy and retailers were hit hard... Energy stocks pretty much ignore crude's idiocy today... And this is interesting... Mixed day today for bonds but the long-end closed the week modestly lower and the rest of the curve very slightly higher in yield... At the short end, the bill curve is notably inverted... with the panic line in the sand around 9/28... The 30Y Treasury Yield test 2.75%, near 2-month lows... The Dollar Index ended the week very marginally higher but the trend was very clear into the close... For those who 'believe' - Trump favorability has actually improved this week, implying dollar strength to come... Copper outperformed on the week with gold, silver, and WTI all modestly lower... (NOTE - WTI exploded higher today, 'triggered' at the same time as Banon headlines hit) Gold topped $1300 once again - the 3rd time this year This chart made us laugh... USDJPY vs Gold... Bitcoin had another big week - rising 16.5% to new record highs at around $4400. This is the 5th weekly rise in a row (and BTC is up 86% since the fork)... But Bitcoin did tumble today amid increasing talk of another fork.... Finally, a reminder that 'stuff' is hitting fans - even if stocks don't really show it... USA default/devaluation risk is now twice that of Germany...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- S&P sectors for the past week-
Do Transports Really Matter? Posted by lplresearch The Dow Jones Transports (transports) have been one of the weakest segments of the market since July. As Charles Dow suggested more than 100 years ago, for the primary trend to be in place we need to see the transports confirm the action in the DowJones Industrial Average (Dow). In other words, if the Dow makes a new high and the transports group doesn’t, that is a potential warning sign. Well, on August 1, 2017 the Dow closed at a new 52-week high, yet the transports group closed at a new 52-week low relative to the Dow. In others words, the performance gap, or spread, between the two is at its widest over the past year. So it would seem transports aren’t carrying their weight; and the question is: Is this a major warning sign? Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Going back in history, we have often seen the rare combo of a 52-week high in the Dow and a 52-week relative low in transports precede some tumultuous times. It took place ahead of the ‘73/’74 bear market, the ’87 crash, and the ’00 peak for starters, which makes the signal seen earlier this month something we aren’t taking lightly.” Now here’s the good news: The track record of this rare signal is far from spotless. Per Ryan Detrick, “Although on the surface this sounds scary, looking at all the signals (to remove clusters, each instance must be at least three months apart to define a new signal) in which the Dow and Dow/transports spread hit new 52-week highs, the Dow has been up a median 17.1% over the following year. We’d still say the weakness in transports is a concern, but a bigger concern is that we’ve gone more than a year without a 5% correction, and there are multiple big events (think debt ceiling, tax reform, and infrastructure spending) out of Washington on the horizon that could trip up the market.”
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.21.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.21.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.22.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.22.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.23.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.23.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.24.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.24.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.25.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.25.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings releases calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead: ($MOMO $BZUN $AVGO $CRM $LOW $ULTA $VEEV $TOL $WUBA $MDT $VMW $FN $BURL $AEO $ADSK $DLTR $ANF $DSW $TIF) Momo Inc. $43.82 Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.31 per share on revenue of $291.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $283.00 million to $288.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 287.50% with revenue increasing by 193.90%. Short interest has increased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.0% above its 200 day moving average of $31.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,799 contracts of the $44.00 call expiring on Friday, August 25, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters. Baozun Inc. $33.98 Baozun Inc. (BZUN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 PM ET on Monday, August 21, 2017. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $126.00 million to $129.00 million. Short interest has increased by 243.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 74.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 84.5% above its 200 day moving average of $18.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,846 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.6% move on earnings in recent quarters. Broadcom Limited $249.37 Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.03 per share on revenue of $4.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.61% with revenue increasing by 17.62%. Short interest has decreased by 7.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $213.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,747 contracts of the $270.00 call expiring on Friday, August 25, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters. Salesforce $90.76 Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $2.52 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.33 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.31 to $0.32 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.33% with revenue increasing by 23.73%. Short interest has increased by 9.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $82.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,636 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters. Lowe's Companies, Inc. $73.64 Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 23, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.62 per share on revenue of $19.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.25% with revenue increasing by 6.85%. Short interest has decreased by 4.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.7% below its 200 day moving average of $77.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,040 contracts of the $72.50 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. ULTA Beauty $244.20 ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.72 to $1.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.57%. Short interest has increased by 59.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.8% below its 200 day moving average of $270.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 500 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Friday, August 25, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters. 58.com Inc. $53.26 58.com Inc. (WUBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 AM ET on Monday, August 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $327.00 million to $341.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 150.00% with revenue increasing by 235.44%. The stock has drifted higher by 15.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.9% above its 200 day moving average of $38.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 18,530 contracts of the $55.00 call and 18,008 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 8.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. Toll Brothers, Inc. $38.15 Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.68 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.68% with revenue increasing by 16.54%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% above its 200 day moving average of $34.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,215 contracts of the $38.00 put and 910 contracts of the $39.00 call expiring on Friday, August 25, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters. Veeva Systems Inc. $63.12 Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $164.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.20 per share on revenue of $163.00 million to $164.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 25.17%. The stock has drifted lower by 4.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.2% above its 200 day moving average of $51.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters. Medtronic, Inc. $83.41 Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, August 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $7.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.85% with revenue increasing by 3.96%. Short interest has increased by 29.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.3% above its 200 day moving average of $80.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 900 contracts of the $83.00 put expiring on Friday, August 25, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.2% move in recent quarters.
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 8.18.17 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.20.17 - Cloudy with a chance of meatballs Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current market pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending- Also here is an interesting stat that i stumbled across this morning (i didn't know they keep track of this kind of stuff ) but here is the performance of the stock market when a total solar eclipse (like we're about to experience tomorrow) is visible from the U.S.
Thanks for getting this up Cy. I got real busy yesterday with wife and baby stuff and had no time! Good luck this week everyone!
Trump just knows how to use his Twitter account to cause panic sales. The way he influences the stock with dirty talks is just tiring.
Morning. Looks like we're getting a bit of a bounce back this morning. Cash S&P never did make it to a -3% pullback (as of yet anyway) which means we're still w/o one in about 9 months. 2nd longest in market history. What's on everyone's radar this morning?
Im pretty sure there are automated trading systems out there that scan his tweets the second they come out for any possible trades. The tricky part is that after his smack talks some CEO, their stock goes up!
Will be looking for stocks to short. On the upside, TREE pulled back to the 20 ma and bounced right off it. One of those low float, high short % stocks like AAOI (TREE short % is "only" 22% which is high, but AAOI had 50%).
Seems like this market just can't gain much momentum to the downside, we can't even get a 3% pullback
