2018 Predictions & Stock Market Calls Predictions in here do not need to be solely market related -- these can be anything from world/domestic events, sports related (like who will win the next NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB championship?), but since we're a trading community here it'd be great to hear some market related predictions. So, without getting into further ado let's hear what you all have to say in regards to your predictions for 2018! Have at it. Looking forward to hearing some good input in here! Here was our 2017 predictions thread: 2017 Predictions & Stock Market Calls <-- click there to view.
Stock market history shows 2018 could be just as forecast small gains with a correction History is on the side of those who think stocks will see smaller gains next year and a correction. Strategas analysts studied years where there were shallow sell-offs in the S&P 500, like this year, and they found they correlated to strong market performance, like this year. But in the following year, there was an average 12 percent correction and an average gain of just 5 percent, coincidentally just like analysts are forecasting for next year. Stocks look set for further gains, but there's good reason to believe 2018 will bring a full-throttle correction (10 percent decline), after this year's shallow sell-off and low volatility. Strategists surveyed by CNBC expect a median gain of about 5 percent for 2018, for the S&P 500, and many expect some type of correction. Strategas Research technical analysts studied the years since 1945 when there were shallow drawdowns of 6 percent or less and found 9 instances. This year, the S&P's biggest sell-off was less than 3 percent, and the index is up about 20 percent for the year. In the years with shallow sell-offs of 6 percent or smaller, including this year, the S&P mostly saw strong double-digit gains, averaging about 25 percent. The drawdowns averaged about 4 percent. In the following year, the S&P mostly saw a larger drawdown, averaging about 12 percent, but ranging between 6 and 26 percent. The S&P's performance in the following year was mixed, averaging a 5 percent gain — the same level forecast for next year. Source: Strategas "The market is in good shape, but we should expect it to get harder. This year was an outlier in terms of volatility," said Todd Sohn, technical analyst at Strategas. "The market is not narrowing here. The big picture is eight out of every 10 stocks are in an uptrend. That's pretty strong, and it's hard to make the case" for a correction. Sohn said, however, history is on the side of a more significant sell-off for 2018, but it would be a dip to buy. "You will get some form of correction. … It doesn't have to be a full 10 percent … it could be something in the 8 to 10 percent range," he said. Source: Strategas
I predict we will still not have a 1-on-1 basketball league, although I'd really like to see one. Maybe we could start with the Olympics; if they can have 7 different swimming events, then they can have at least 2 types of basketball games. Throw in a slam dunk contest too, I really think the Olympics is the place to get this thing going. I think I understand the problem with commercializing it as a professional sport -- where will you play the games? Can't just show up in Madison Square Garden. Also, it's not like these solo players need to represent their NBA city, which could lead to drama -- which is great for TV fans, but a hassle for the players.
Let's throw some junk on the wall and see what's sticky. 2018: Mueller's investigation finds Trump obstructed justice by firing Comey, but Republican congressional majorities don't impeach, seeking cover under whataboutisms and claims of investigative bias. That's the most vanilla outcome. There is a very real possibility that Mueller's investigation has followed breadcrumbs through various shell companies, financial ties, and affiliates, exposing money laundering activity and possibly worse. Political pendulums swing like market corrections, and we are overdue. Normally midterm elections favor the party out of power, and that theme has extra fuel on its fire this time. It's entirely possible that Trump (who is already at record low approvals) has to deal with serious fallout from the Mueller investigation right as congressional Republicans are losing their midterm campaigns. There will be no spectacular contest between establishment and progressive Democrats for midterms, leaving it a partisan referendum on Trump. Calculation becomes that Trump is a liability. All congressional support evaporates. Democrats take control of one if not both houses (with a thin majority) and Trump loses the ability to realize any part of his remaining agenda. It should be clear by now to all but the most willfully-ignorant that Trump is not equipped or qualified to be President. We may see President Pence in mid-to-late 2018, assuming he doesn't get pulled underwater by what he knew with Flynn and when he knew it. As scary as that sounds, Pence will probably not succeed in his attempts to put gay people in concentration camps, mostly due to the aforementioned Democratic congress. Historically, every time markets have been at record highs (as we are now, and have been for some time), major corrections occur. Precisely when is impossible to predict, but it's not exactly maverick to suggest that our ever so cleverly-labeled "everything bubble" shall soon burst. I believe our markets have been on a slow recovery since the recession, getting a nice hit of happy gas when it became apparent that we were looking at Republican control of both houses of congress and the executive. For Wall St. this is the equivalent of doing lines off stripper ass. The forthcoming tax rewrite will result in massive share buybacks, which will only serve to further overvalue and inflate this thing. Maximum optimism, valuations driven by excited momentum rather than underlying fundamentals, international conflict riding on razor-thin tolerances, political uncertainty, etc. It's not going to take much to tip this staggering mess over. By nearly all estimations, the proposed Republican tax plan will blow a nasty hole in the budget. The historical playbook for Republicans is to pass budget-busting tax cuts favoring wealthy and corporate interests, followed by alarmist demands that social programs must be cut because we have a deficit problem. While the last vestiges of Republican congressional dominance remain in 2018 I fully expect to see a push for "entitlement reform", using budget deficit as the impetus to complete the full reverse-Robin Hood that is their primary reason for existence. War with N. Korea will appear imminent, but won't actually happen. Sessions will fail in his attempt to reboot the war on weed. Southwest will still be the best airline. Mackelmore will make another opportunistic album capitalizing on some current social theme. Your mom will like one of the songs because the radio plays it incessantly. You're going to start spotting drones flying around. The shitcoin bubble will burst... (yes it will). Social Media will continue to destroy your faith in humanity. Amazon will continue to dominate the cloud, significantly out-innovating MS and Google. The Note 8 will not catch on fire. Society will collectively realize that tight-rolling pants should never have made a comeback. Fruit acid foot wraps will gain in popularity, but become no less disgusting. Negan will die. Untuckit will fail, because there's nothing special about a shirt that doesn't tuck in. I will post more on Stockaholics than I did in 2017.
Dems file articles of impeachment on accusations Trump stole a Diet Coke from the vending machine Elizabeth Warren brought before senate ethics committee for allegations of sexually assaulting Bernie Sanders FBI raids Rocky Balboa residence, still can't find connection to Russia CNN reports real news Steve Banon endorses the clown from IT in Mississippi midterm Trump builds the wall $2 billion under budget... George Soros donates 2 million hang gliders to Mexican drug cartel Unemployment sees all time low, GDP hits 4% growth.... Obama gets credit S&P 3k... Cramer funny noise machine overheats and blows up Bitcoin shows volitility Amazon buys Venezuela And the NFL merges with WWE in an attempt to fill stadiums again
It's hard to predict what will happen next year. I strongly believe that the cryptocurrency won't run the world.
I think something like 3 on 3 basketball could be fun Also would like the NBA to change All Star Game from East vs West to US vs International
Bitcoin will see a -60% drop this year. The market will pull back 8+% in the first quarter. But it won't be the big one, and afterward we'll end the year over 2700. Keep an eye on Mohammad bin Salman, he'll do some great things. North Korea shenanigans will continue thru 2018, i.e. Kim will remain in power. Meat-substitute foods (e.g. veggie burgers) will begin to get really popular. And 3-on-3 basketball would be fun. BUT we need 1-on-1 tournament to settle who is the best 1-on-1 player.
The Clinton family will finally go to prison. Bill gets his much wanted sex change while serving time. The markets trade sideways till Q1 earnings, then take off when companies post record profits from the new tax laws. North Korea finally gets tired of starving while watching their "leader" get fatter, and execute him. Al Gore finally admits he was only trying to make money with his DVD's on global "warming" BS.
The US and China will start a trade war, we will hit them with recalls (again) and they will flood the markets with our bonds (again) Somebody will hack the CEO's of the credit services and publish their social security numbers on Wiki Leaks Little Kim will still be short and fat and in control of NK BitCoin will be below $1k The Dems will win the majority in the House and Senate Some girl I dated in the 80's will accuse me of improprieties Donald Trump will be impeached (for laundering Russian money) Russia will still be a third world country Old people will still be mad (cuz they are old) Young people will still be mad (cuz old people wont retire and give them the jobs) I will be jobless on June 1st I am going to have a kickass year trading (I hope)
a few more... A major power grid will fail or be hacked making infrastructure stocks the years biggest gainers Driver less cars and trucks will start to become main stream Defense will be number 2 Mortgages will return to a median 8% The vix has seen atl's and will see $23 this year TSLA will see $184 UPS will strike and see $62 OSTK and WTW will see sub $20's RIOT will be delisted
The movie theater business will decline. It's just not cool to go to the theater; but telling your TV what to play is. And the other disadvantages of theaters that we've delineated in the past (prices, parking, time). But do not underestimate the cool factor. NFL interest will continue to decline. All rules have been made to favor offense, and there's just no game there, not like I remember growing up. If defenders are supposed to know when an offensive player is defenseless, then shouldn't refs know too? This will lead to refs blowing plays dead once any player gets wrapped up, and it's just going to be flag football already. The NFL has to remember who watches their games, versus people who want to make the game "better" but were never fans.
spx will see a pullback greater than -3% and more than once in 2018. crude oil will see $70 for a brief time in 2018. precious metals will have a nice year. with gold going above $1400 at some point in 2018. bitcoin euphoria dies out. carolina panthers get back to the super bowl. golden state warriors will repeat as nba champs. the middle east will still be a hot mess. rocket man will not stop being in the news.
Volatility will pick up speed on Bitcoin as it heads lower and then slow down a bit Trump will try to fire Robert Mueller or Rod Rosenstein or Jeff Sessions Someone very powerful will be guilty of sexual assault The mid-term elections will bring in a large # of elected female officials
