XBT - Bitcoin Futures

Discussion in 'Crypto Forum' started by StockJock-e, Dec 11, 2017.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This thread is for the discussion of XBT, the newly created bitcoin futures market.

    The First U.S. Bitcoin Futures
    Bitcoin futures are now available for trading on the Cboe Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE). CFE launched trading in Cboe bitcoin futures on December 10 under the ticker symbol "XBT" (contract specifications | fact sheet.) This brings many benefits to traders, including transparency, efficient price discovery, deep liquidity and centralized clearing. XBTSM futures provides a centralized marketplace for participants to trade based on their view of bitcoin prices, gain exposure to bitcoin prices or hedge their existing bitcoin positions.

    CFE is waiving all of its transaction fees for XBT futures in December 2017. For more information on pricing, visit the CFE Fee Schedule page.

    XBT futures are cash-settled contracts based on the Gemini's auction price for bitcoin, denominated in U.S. dollars. Gemini Trust Company, LLC (Gemini) is a digital asset exchange and custodian founded in 2014 that allows customers to buy, sell, and store digital assets such as bitcoin, and is subject to fiduciary obligations, capital reserve requirements, and banking compliance standards of the New York State Department of Financial Services.

    Why Trade XBT Futures
    Settle to a Single Auction Price

    XBT futures is a cash-settled contract that settles to a single, tradeable auction price. In designing XBT futures, Cboe leveraged its significant product development expertise to design an instrument that allows participants to implement trading strategies in a manner to which they are accustomed. The single price settlement process gives participants the option of using XBT futures to hedge their exposure in underlying bitcoin or gain exposure to traded bitcoin prices without holding bitcoin.

    How Can I Trade XBT Futures on Cboe Futures Exchange?

    Bitcoin futures based on the Gemini auction prices are traded exclusively at Cboe Futures Exchange. Contact your brokerage firm to find out how to trade XBT futures at Cboe Futures Exchange.

    http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures
     
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Futures went live last night, lets see if it closes up those spreads and reduces volatility like they said, or does the opposite! :D
     
  3. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    On BTC/USD, 6564 is the level to watch into Labor Day. If that level holds the R/R balance shifts to the upside. If not, then 4220 to 7086 becomes the new range in 2019.
     
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  4. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    To ward off further selling, BTCUSD has to close and comfortably hold above 6564 otherwise 4710 becomes the next stop on the monthly.
    July and September point to key reversal dates. This is not to be confused with a reversal in trend. Reversal dates can point to a reversal or continuation in trend depending on price levels breached.

    If BTCUSD closes above 6564 by the end of July, it would halt the decline. However, it will require a trade above 7427 to confirm a reversal in the short term trend and a re-test of higher prices -- 10144 acting as the ceiling.

    The good news is the shorter declining trend line has been broken which should halt the decline in price into initial support found at 5800.
    The bad news is the decline from the highs in BTCUSD is reminiscent of the decline seen in DDD a few years back. In fact, if your interlace both charts you'll draw on a number of parallels were wishful thinking was the dominant force behind DDD decline. Bottom feeders kept timing a low without regard for price structure.
     
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  5. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    Unless there is a fall from grace that inverts (Julys) price structure, BTCUSD seems to have put in a (provisional) low at 5800~. 6564 was instrumental in tilting the balance of power between sellers and buyers; 7427 remains the main point of contention moving forward. What will define the nature of the current relief rally (for the time being) depends entirely on were price ends the month in relation to its monthly range. If price extends further to the upside over the next few days but closes around 7500~, it would confirm a reversal in the short term trend, but at a cost, for it would require pent-up demand to support the crypto coin just to maintain the current breakout. In other words, if BTCUSD closes above 7427 this month (July 2018), it will require additional buying to support and extend the breakout past the next big resistance hurdle priced between 8172 to 8352. A close above this level allows for a re-test of 9467 and as high as 10083 -- the high end mark of the established range. This will be a challenge in itself for incremental supply hitting the market every day could prove to be a determining factor.

    Moving forward, these are the price levels to keep in check:

    7843 needs to hold into Labor Day, and more importantly, 9467 into year end to keep the breakout in motion into 2019. Meanwhile, a close back below 8038 by year end puts pressure on price in 2019 but says nothing if the rally ends or continues.

    If price were to trade below 7466 in the 1Q 2019, it would confirm the continuation of the broader downtrend, proving the current low of 5800 as provisional and the current bounce in price as nothing more than a relief rally.

    8967 followed by 10947 are the main targets buyers will target by Thanksgiving. The higher price travels (i.e. the closer it gets to 10947), the better the improvement in price structure. Watch out for September for it points to another reversal date.



    I have no bias on Bitcoin short or long term. I certainly do not believe subscribe to all shops trying to lure in buyers just to earn a petty commission and scam their subscriber base. I do, however, believe blockchain is a big leap into the future. Most industries will end up mass adopting the technology because it jettisons risk concentration into the hands of one, or few institutions, and it keeps an off the book record of all digitization (i.e. its a transparent record keeping method which is invaluable). Of course, this speaks little if an asset such as Bitcoin ends up being the de facto medium of payment. Unfortunately, Bitcoin will not be streamlined and integrated into the mainframe of the economy unless governments get their share (i.e. regulate the heck out of it) -- as unfortunate and ironical as it may sound (given how bitcoin has been sold as an "off the grid currency".). In any case, if your a staunch believer in Bitcoin and/or its technology, like any other investment that holds a promise, invest in it and pay close attention to important price structure. Let the plan evolve and make decision only once important price level are reached. You`ll make less mistakes and fret less about the ins and outs of the market. If the plan doesn't work, but you still like the investment you own, do it again in a year, two, three, four, five years. Odds are the bet will pay off in time.


     
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