Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 26th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing Tuesday 7:45 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed services 2:30 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Kansas City Fed President Esther George Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q3 (second reading) 8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators 10:00 a.m. New home sales 12:00 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Personal income 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes 2:00 p.m. Chicago Fed's Evans Friday 9:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
Crude, Credit Crash As Stocks Suffer Worst Black Friday Loss Since 2010 Give thanks? "You get nothing!!" Dow's worst Black Friday performance since 2010 and the S&P's 3rd worst Thanksgiving Week loss since FDR!! Chinese stocks tumbled after a supported start to the week - this is the worst week for China in six weeks... European stocks were also down across the board... Dow was the week's biggest loser but this was Nasdaq's worst week since March...ugly close...S&P has confirmed its correction, closing down 10% from its record closing high... Futures show the weakness during yesterday's cash market holiday was quickly erased by the machines at today's cash open... and then dumped... Nasdaq's mid-week bounce managed to get it back into the green barely for the year - everything else is red for 2018... The early week bounce in FANG stocks faded... Financials had an ugly week... Credit had an ugly week with IG spreads blowing out to fresh cycle highs (even as VIX compressed)... Treasury yields ended the week mixed with the short-end marginally higher and the rest of the curve lower in yield - despite the collapse in stocks... Inflation breakevens tumbled to their lowest since Dec 2017, tracking oil lower... It appears the broad derisiking across bonds and stocks on Tuesday decoupled the two asset classes on the week... The Dollar rallied back up to last Friday's pre-plunge highs again... Cable slid today as reality hit that the Brexit 'deal' still has plenty of hurdles ahead... Crude was the week's biggest loser as the rest of the commodity space largely trod water... This was Oil's worst week since Jan 2016... We do note that oil spiked a little into the close amid some OPEC/Saudi jawboning...(but still ended down 6% on the day) Saudi Arabia and OPEC are inching toward a compromise between pleasing the U.S. with policies that won’t lead to price spikes and throttling back the flow of its oil to rebalance oversupplied global markets. The solution the cartel is considering: A production cut that doesn’t look like a production cut. Under such a scenario, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would announce plans to retain current output targets, first set in 2016. That move would imply a production pullback because Saudi Arabia is overproducing by nearly 1 million barrels a day, according to people familiar with the matter. Gold managed gains against the yuan while treading water against the dollar... Finally, we note that 'soft' survey data is starting to catch down to the 'hard' reality of real economic data...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
Sector Performance Since the 9/20 Peak; Best and Worst Performing Stocks Nov 21, 2018 Below we show the average change of stocks in each Russell 1,000 sector from the start of 2017 through the 9/20 equity market peak compared to the average change since the 9/20 peak. For all stocks in the Russell 1,000, the average stock gained 34.4% from the start of 2017 through 9/20. Since 9/20, the average stock in the index is down 11%. Looking at sectors, Technology and Health Care stocks gained by far the most from 2017 through 9/20 — up 72.5% and 69.1%, respectively. Since 9/20, Tech stocks have averaged a drop of 15.1%, while Health Care stocks have fallen 9.7%. The best stocks since 9/20 have been Utilities, which are actually up an average of 2.9%. Consumer Staples and Real Estate — two more defensives — are only down slightly. Energy has been the weakest sector for quite a while now. During the broad market’s rally from the start of 2017 through 9/20, the average Energy stock was up just 1.2%. Since 9/20, the average Energy stock has fallen 21%, which is by far the biggest drop of any sector. Individual stocks have experienced some epic declines over the last two months. Five percent of stocks in the Russell 1000 are down 30%+ since 9/20, while nearly 20% of stocks in the index are down 20%+. Just 15% of stocks are up since 9/20, and most are defensives. As shown below, Weatherford International (WFT) is down the most since 9/20 at -74.55%. PG&E (PCG) is down 49.89%, followed by Adient (ADNT), Align Tech (ALGN), Kosmos Energy (KOS), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Align and NVDA had posted huge gains from 2017 through 9/20 before experiencing huge drops since, but the three biggest losers since 9/20 were actually down from 2017 through 9/20 as well. Some other notables on the list of biggest losers since 9/20 include General Electric (GE) — down 38.6%, Advanced Micro (AMD) — down 38.4%, and Zillow Group (ZG) — down 37.4%. Below is a list of the best performing stocks since the broad market sell-off began on 9/20. These are stocks that have bucked the overall trend and traded higher. Notables include Starbucks (SBUX), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Tesla (TSLA), McDonald’s (MCD), Hormel (HRL), Verizon (VZ), and CME Group (CME). If you’ve been long any of these names, you’ve at least experienced some upside over the last couple of months. Rude Crude Nov 23, 2018 While US equities are set to trade lower on this holiday-shortened day after Thanksgiving, the big story is the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Crude is trading down over 5% this morning to another 52-week low near $50 per barrel. Looking at the chart, it’s amazing to see how sharp and fast the drop has been from what were multi-year highs just a few short weeks ago. In the span of just 36 trading days, prices have dropped by about a third! Looking back at crude oil declines over time, the magnitude of this drawdown is right up there with some of the biggest on record. The last time prices were down this much from a 52-week high was in 2015 and 2016, but the key difference between now and then is that the magnitude and length of this decline (at least up until this point) has been shorter and less severe. We realize that measuring a 36-day rate of change is a bit arbitrary, but just to show how sharp a decline this has been, there haven’t been many other similar lengths of time where crude oil declined more over a such a short period of time. Consumer Comfort Slowing But Still Very Strong Nov 21, 2018 Bloomberg’s weekly consumer comfort data released this morning at 61.3. Consumer comfort is still very close to cycle highs (61.6), but over the past couple of months—during the time markets have been selling off—it hasn’t not been steadily moving higher as it did for most of the year, instead staying within a range of 59 to 61. This slowing is by no means a negative sign seeing as the level is still so strong. Given the equity market’s recent price action, it may simply be the wealth effect dampening. Breaking comfort levels down by demographic, the same trends still seem to be in place. Most readings are still in high percentiles compared to history, meaning comfort is still high across the board. Those with lower income and education levels unsurprisingly remain at the bottom, while higher-income individuals sit at the top. Also near the bottom of the group is Democrats, which as we have highlighted in the past is normal for the out of power party. On that note, the reading is still higher for both Republicans and Democrats since the election likely due to both sides perceiving wins. Geographically, there was a big drop in comfort in the Northeast. These demographics are some of the more volatile ones though—as you can see in the chart below—so it is not necessarily a bad sign. The Northeast especially has seen many of these huge drops throughout the history of the survey. There was an even larger fall only a few months ago. In other words, while Northeast comfort may seem bad, with its level being one of the lowest demographics in regards to its percentile, it should not raise any red flags, and we could very easily expect this low comfort level to turn around. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup: Worst Starts to Q4 Nov 21, 2018 In today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup, we provide our usual updated look at market internals, indicators, news events, and analysis. In addition, we’ve highlighted the tables below. The first table on the left shows the worst starts to Q4 for the S&P 500 on record. As shown, this Q4 has been the 6th worst so far with a decline of 9.34%! Just brutal. We go into more detail in the full Morning Lineup release. The second table on the right simply shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s point change on each trading day over the last month. As shown, the Dow has experienced triple-digit moves on 21 of the last 22 trading days! A Historically Bad Q4 So Far Nov 20, 2018 With the S&P 500 falling 9.08% QTD, it has been the sixth-worst start to the fourth quarter in the history of the S&P 500. The only worse Q4s (through 37 trading days) came during some of the worst years for the stock market (1929, the 1930s, 1973, 1987, and 2008). Below is a table showing the worst starts to Q4 for the S&P 500 through 37 trading days. Any drop of more than 2% at this point in the quarter made the list. As shown in the table, the average change for the S&P for the remainder of these years has been a gain of 2.77% with positive returns 78.26% of the time. For all other Q4s in the S&P’s history, the average change for the remainder of the year has been +1.61%. Of course, it’s not all good news. If you look at the window of Q4s that were down between 8% and 12% like we are this year, the S&P actually declined for the remainder of those four years. And in case you don’t remember, at this point in Q4 2008, the S&P was down 35.5%! In that year, the S&P ended up rallying 20% for the remainder of the year before plummeting to new lows again in the first quarter of 2009. The Crude Reality of Oil’s Bear Market Posted by lplresearch Oil has garnered a lot of attention from market watchers in recent weeks after entering a bear market and posting a record 12-day losing streak from October 29 through November 13 that left the commodity 27% off its recent high. It has been a frustrating year for energy investors because even when oil was rallying during the spring and summer, stocks failed to benefit noticeably. In fact, energy stocks have been surprisingly disconnected from oil prices for a couple of years now. As shown in the chart below, energy stocks did not get any lift from rising oil prices in mid-2017 through summer of 2018 based on relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy Index versus the S&P 500. Some of the primary reasons for the decline include: Slower growth overseas. Recent data out of Europe, Japan and China suggest overseas economic growth has slowed, which has led the International Energy Agency and others to lower global oil demand forecasts. Strong domestic production. U.S. crude oil production is at a record high 11 million barrels per day, up 23% year over year and more than double the levels 10 years ago. U.S. crude oil inventories are elevated relative to their five-year averages. Iran sanctions have been watered down with country exemptions. As a result, the amount of Iranian oil that has come off the global market has been less than some anticipated. Production overseas is increasing. OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) and Russia are plugging the entire gap from Iranian production cuts and production declines in Venezuela. The U.A.E., Iraq and Libya are also chipping in. Jawboning from the Oval Office. President Trump is pressuring OPEC producers not to cut, creating bearish headlines. Strong greenback. Finally, a strong U.S. dollar has increased the cost of oil for international buyers in other currencies. A long list for sure. “The recent drop in oil prices is especially surprising when considering the industry has significantly cut capital spending in the years following the oil downturn in late 2014-early 2015,” notes LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We could be due for a short-term bounce.” So where does oil go from here? Our short-term bias for oil, now in the $57 range, is higher as OPEC is likely to cut production. Many oil-producing nations need higher prices to break even. In addition, oil is oversold enough from a technical perspective that we think it is due for a bounce. At the same time, as prices potentially rise, we believe prospects of additional supply increases from the U.S. and abroad will cap upside much above the mid-$60s, a view we have held throughout 2018. The next and perhaps more important question is “will the energy sector outperform?” Our sector view is currently neutral. Though the sector may be due for some outperformance and these stocks may be pricing in a fairly pessimistic fundamental outlook, we see more compelling opportunities within other sectors, specifically industrials, financials and technology, as well as emerging-market equities. These areas are likely to benefit more from the strong U.S. economic growth outlook and a potential trade deal with China. We continue to like master limited partnerships for income-focused investors. The best news about oil’s decline? U.S. shoppers will likely save billions of dollars at the pump and heating their homes this winter. The timing is good, just ahead of Black Friday. Remember, those sales get earlier and earlier every year. Happy shopping! Reagan’s Split Congress Produced 12.9% Average Annual DJIA Return Of the six combinations of political alignment possible for the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate, the best combination for DJIA from 1949 through the end of 2017 has been a Democrat in the White House and Congress controlled by the Republic Party with average annual gains of 16.1%. Second best was a Republican in the White House with a Republican Congress at 15.6%. Both of these results compare favorably with the average performance in all years of 8.6%. Over the same time period, the worst combination for DJIA performance was a Republican President and full Democratic control of Congress with an annual average gain of just 4.9%. Under a Republican President and a split Congress, DJIA has averaged gains of 6.7%. This is neither the best nor the worst historically. Last time we had a Republican President with a Split Congress consisting of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate was during Ronald “The Great Communicator” Reagan’s first six years in office. To start off his term the market topped on April 27, 1981 for DJIA (11/28/1980 for S&P and 5/29/1981 for NASDAQ), which culminated in the bear market bottom on August 12, 1982 (Aug 13 for NAS). However, these were some of the most productive years for the federal government as The Great Communicator had a worthy adversary, or partner really, in veteran statesman and sitting Speaker of the House, Tip O’Neill. Reagan and O’Neill worked diligently together compromising and passing legislation and instituting policy that would shape and fuel the information revolution and the last secular bull market and Super Boom. In those six years from 1981 to 1986 DJIA averaged 12.9% annually. Similarly, when Bill Clinton lost Congress in his first midterm election in 1994, the market and economy resumed the Boom in 1995 as new Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich and Clinton worked together despite their many differences of opinion and ideology. There is hope for the next two years if the Democratic Speaker and President Trump decide to put the country ahead of politics and rhetoric.
Stock Market Analysis Video for November 23rd, 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.25.18 - Where's the Volatility? Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.23.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Picking Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (11/26) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (11/26-11/30) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 11.26.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 11.26.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.27.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.27.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.28.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.28.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.29.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.29.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.30.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.30.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($CRM $WB $SPLK $NTNX $DLTR $DKS $TIF $BURL $PANW $BOX $DSX $ZUO $BNS $JKS $SINA $GWPH $VEEV $ANF $CBRL $HIBB $KSHB $VMW $AMBA $HMLP $WDAY $DAVA $RY $SJM $GME $JILL $VJET $AMWD $ITRN $TD $PAGS $KNOP $TLYS $BKE $GSM $HPQ $TECD) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 26th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
Nice rally today Oil finally stop crashing at least for a day Oil could be the main thing to watch for the market until the G20 comes
I'm watching the close. Today's candle is super strong but I think the 2670 SPX level has become technically important, A close below could be bearish imo.
hmm, I think this might have been an oversold bounce. Day traders could get long for a gap fill with a stop loss just below 2670, the charts are still broken for swing traders though until at least the remount of the ma(9) on the daily I think.
Trump suggests US could slap 10% tariffs on iPhones and laptops imported from China https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/tru...nt-tariffs-on-iphones-laptops-from-china.html SPY down by 0.43%, QQQ down by 0.51% and AAPL down by 1.61% as of now AH
Good Tuesday morning to all. Here is the pre-market thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read!
