Crazy stuff! Numbers to look at in the DJIA are 21600 and if that goes for year end, then we should see 19135 in January/February. I really believe this is a bear trap, there was simply not enough euphoria when we made ATHs in the indices. Worth noting is that the SPX, DJIA, and NASDAQ all made their highs in separate months which is not what happens when tops are set for bear markets. I am not going long just yet, but if 21600 holds then I'd start entering there, otherwise 19135 is the final stop if 21.6 breaks. It looks like there's also a bunch of money on the sidelines, so there's a potential slingshot move in the works which will launch us to 30k real quick.
@Venom08 first things first here, it's real awesome to see you back and chiming in here again! been greatly missing your commentary man. those are some really good points you made, and i'm inclined to agree with ya. to me this feels more like 2011 and 2015-16, than 2008-09 that a lot of people (not from here) seem to be comparing this to...those 2 corrections never led to full on bear markets. also, if you remember, only the russell and trannies hit bear markets during those 2 corrections. same thing here in this correction as well (for now). i know this isn't really giving much "analysis" at all, and it's more of a "gut feel" than anything lol. but, to me this correction just doesn't seem very panicky, or the katy bar the door GTFO...this has been very much orderly on the way down (imho anyway). i mean, that can certainly change if we start breaking some serious support, like the levels you mentioned on the DJ30...that remains to be seen for now. but, i'm inclined to agree with most of you what you said. good stuff man and again good to see you back in here!
Thanks man. I've actually blown half my account because I couldn't sit on my hands and bought a bunch of index calls in the spring. I was up a ton but with this crash I'm fuked as most have expired this month and the remaining will unlikely get ITM when they expire in January. Sad but at least I'm still in the game. I am most interested in 21600. The 19,100 comes in play and happens to be when we set the stage for the 2017 rally back in November 2016. I keep trying to figure out if I'm missing the asset bubble which should cause this action to produce a bear market, and I simply cannot. The only things that scare me are bank stocks and government bonds. Rising rates have historically been bullish for stocks as that means people are willing to take on more risk and invest. QE failed to bring about inflation and all those things gold bulls thought would happen. In fact, I see the dollar rallying to ATHs and gold potentially breaking below $1000.
I haven't read the previous weeks threads, but everyone is calling for a bear market. It's nothing more than a normal reaction and continuation of the most hated bull market in history.... All that's doing is setting us up for a vertical market where people keep trying to short it and then cover for a loss.
Top Trump Official Calls Bankers, Will Convene 'Plunge Protection Team' https://money.usnews.com/investing/...-secretary-convenes-calls-with-top-us-bankers
Just another reminder in here to all that markets have an abbreviated session tomorrow (Xmas Eve) closing @ 1pm eastern time. With all markets (including Globex futures) closed on Tuesday (Christmas Day). For those of you who will not be present on the forums tomorrow or Tuesday, or even this week, I wish you and your family and friends a Merry Christmas! Have fun and be safe.
Yahoo Finance has been way off from everybody else this morning, They have had the futures down as much as 800 pts,
VIX finally seeing some moves here. Looks like we're just couple handles from officially dipping into bear territory on the cash SPX (at least on an intraday basis). fwiw, 2,352 is the exact bear level from the 2,940 ATH.
Wow huge selloff again I don’t think we can bottom in half day trading so probably we will see more lows ahead
couple of crazy stats in here for y'alls... ok, so first things first- this was the worst xmas eve for the market ever in history. this is still on pace for the worst dec. since 1931 (could be the worst ever if we fall another -3% in the final 5 trading days of this year). the spx CLOSES in bear market territory (-20% off ATHs) for the first time since lehman! technically the bull market (the one that started in 2009) is over. last week was the largest weekly decline in the spx since oct. 2008. i'll try to list some more stuff as they come in
Trash is green and Santa is Red. Christmas is red and green. This year the bulls are red and positions are trash while the bears are green
We are definitely seeing history here I don’t think too many people thought we would finish the year deep in the red after the first 10 to 11 months of this year
here is my indices correction table up to today's close- now just waiting on the DJ30 to join in the bear party
