A guessing Game

Discussion in 'The Cocktail Lounge' started by DvAbCanEh!, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    Here is a game we played on the old Hot Stock Market years ago.

    Start with and easy one, who is this celebrity.

    Guess who 001.jpg

    Damn, this is to easy!
     
  2. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    No one like the life of twisted Taylor Swift.
    OK then, figure this one out.
    A good investor should be able to mathematically figure out the odds of standing firm or switching choices in this scenario.
    Some of you may have seen the quiz in an investment news letter recently.
    Scenario:
    Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
     
  3. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    With Friday's close, everyone's wallet should be bursting with ca$h.
    Sell some stocks and build some cash reserves. Even a good time to get the best price for your losers.
    Bursting Wallet.jpg

    I tried to find an Anti-Social Lounge on Stockaholics, no where to be found!
    So I'll have to post this problem here.
    What day is Cheryl's Birthday, can anyone figure this out?

    Cheryl Birthday - Question 01.jpg
     
  4. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    yes was quite nice [​IMG] ;):D:D

    btw What day is Cheryl's Birthday? is today because we are related
    >>>>>she is the daughter of my gran mother 2° child, who married Luigi , he is related to my father 1° cousin because he married my father's grand mother daughter's sister whom was distant related to my mother father because she was the 3° child from her uncle who married Carmela 1° cousin to cut it short Cheryl was born today date ;):D:D


    enjoy the w/e :)
     
  5. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    Let's forget about Cheryl's birthday for a few days and go back to Monty Hall's "Let's Make a Deal".
    Here is the way I see it:
    1/ You pick a door and have only 1 chance in 3 to guess right.
    2/ Monty then has 2 doors giving him 2 chances in 3
    3/ Monty opening the door with the goat really doesn't change the odds of on his side, they still remain 2 chances in 3
    4 Therefore your odds are better if you switch your 1st choice to the other closed door,
    5/ You still might not win but you improved your odds from 1/3 to 2/3's.
    :(
     
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I know Cheryl's birthday.:)
     
  7. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    Cheryl's Birthday? is today because we are related
    Sorry Ciao, forgot to mention that any Family, Friends, Co-workers and FB Friends disqualify you from entering the game. We will have to see if Onepoint 272 has a logical explanation of his choice for Cheryl's Birthday.

    Anyone else want to put their 2 cents worth on the line?
     
    Ciao (Sheppy) likes this.
  8. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    now you tell me [​IMG] took me a while to remember all our relatives [​IMG][​IMG]

    ;):D:D:D
    good luck but I already gave the answer :confused::rolleyes:
     
  9. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    May 16, 15, 19
    June 17,18
    July 14, 16
    Aug 14, 15, 17

    • Albert was told the month
    • Bernard was told the day.
    • Albert said he did not know but Bernard doesn't either.
    • Bernard now knows that it can't be May or June because those months have the uncommon days 19 and 18. Bernard could know the birthday if it had been 19 or 18 therefore Albert is saying that he was told July or August.
    July 14, 16
    Aug 14, 15, 17
    • So now Bernard says "I didn't know it, but now I do". Therefore since Bernard knows it, it cannot be on the 14th since there are 2 months with that date. So he has just told Albert that he was told the dates of 16, 15, or 17.
    July 16
    Aug 15, 17
    • So Albert who was given the month, says he now knows it too. So it could not be August since it has 2 dates, the 15th and 17th and it would not be possible for Albert to know.
    • Therefore, it must be July 16.
     
    #9 Onepoint272, Jul 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2016
    anotherdevilsadvocate likes this.
  10. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    Hey Onepoint have you ever been called a Logician? NO! that's not a swear word :p
    It's a person, such as a philosopher or a mathematician, whose topic of scholarly study is logic.
    I figured Ciao actually had it figured, I never gave it a thought that I posted it on Cheryl's birthday.
    Onepoint saved me a lot of trouble explaining it in layman's terms.

    Anyone else got a brain teaser to post?

    Here is a game I got addicted to called 2048 that's it.
    Web site http://gabrielecirulli.github.io/2048/ (I check the web site with Virus Total and have played it 100's of times. literally 100's)
    Play using arrow keys (or swipe) joining 2 same numbers to double them until you total 2048.
    I have reached 4096 a few times, when you get to 2048 click continue to keep going.
    If you're not bald you may soon be!
     
  11. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    I got it from here ... >>> http://puzzles.nigelcoldwell.co.uk/fortyeight.htm
    then I played up with relatives ;):D
    I thought was a joke as you posted on the actual Cheryl'd birthday o_O:)
     
  12. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well I have studied some logic and I'm an engineer, so I've had lots of practice breaking apart problems to find a solution. Unfortunately those traits can also be a detriment to trading where instincts often come into play and I'm wanting certainty.:confused:
     
  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    You are traveling by foot through an enchanted land and you come to a fork in the road. Your guidebook says that one road leads to Shangri-La and the other leads to destruction. Obviously you want to go to Shangri-La and avoid destruction but you don't know which road to take. There are 2 men standing at the fork. Your guidebook says that one man always tells the truth while the other man always lies. You do not know which man always tells the truth nor which man always lies. Your guidebook says that you may only ask one question to one of the men. What is your question?
     
  14. DvAbCanEh!

    DvAbCanEh! New Member

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    Just checked in before bed, interesting situation. I'm going to sleep on it.o_O
     
  15. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    you are lucky.... I spend sleepless night thinking of it :eek::eek: ;):D:D
    now I think the one who give me the answer I take the opposite road....

    second thought I would turn back and go where I came from :( i was happy there :p:D

    camme on Onepoint272 let hear the answer... I would like to go back to my sleep :D:D
     
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Ciao I'm sorry, that happened to me too. It is really frustrating but you are on to something with your first thought. I'll give you a hint. There are 2 possible variants of the question to ask. I won't give away the questions but the lead-in and resulting action would go something like this:

    #1 You face either man and you ask him "______________________?" and then you take the opposite road to Shangi-La.
    #2 You face either man and you ask him "_____________________ ?" and then you take that road to Shangri-La.
     
  17. Ciao (Sheppy)

    Ciao (Sheppy) Well-Known Member

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    you like to tease me ::: :mad::D:D
    now I take sleeping pills :p:D:D:D
     
  18. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    #1 You face either man and you ask him "what would that other guy say is the road to Shagri-La?" and then you take the opposite road to Shangi-La.
    #2 You face either man and you ask him "what would that other guy say is the road to Destruction?" and then you take that road to Shangri-La.
     
  19. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Okay this should be easy for most traders. The ancients asked:

    "On a line 1-unit long from point A to point C, where do we place point B such that the ratio of the lengths AB to AC is equal to the ratio of lengths BC to AB?"



    A------------------------------------------------------B----------------------------------C
    0......................................................0.xxx...................................1 ​
     
  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Mathematically the question of finding the point where both ratios are satisfied can be expressed as:

    (B - A) = (C - B)
    (C - A)....(B - A)

    We know that A = 0.000 and C = 1.000, therefore by substitution the equation can be written as:

    (B - 0) = (1 - B)
    (1 - 0).....(B - 0)

    So then:

    B = (1 - B)
    ..........B

    With a little algebraic manipulation this becomes:

    B x B = 1 - B

    (B x B) + B - 1 = 0

    B^2 + B - 1 = 0................. (the B^2 signifies B-squared)

    Remembering your algebra, the above is a quadratic equation of the form: aX^2 + bX + c = 0.
    The terms a, b, c in our problem are 1,1, and -1, respectively.

    One way to solve for the two solutions to our quadratic equation is to use the quadratic formula:

    x = [-b +/- (b^2 -4ac)^0.5] / 2a = [-1 +/- (1^2 - (4 x 1 x -1))^0.5] / (2x1)

    x1 = -1 + 5^0.5 / 2 = 0.618

    x2 = -1 - 5^0.5 / 2 = -1.618

    The correct solution for our problem of course is 0.618. Point B would be placed at 0.618 to satisfy the "Golden" ratio.
     
    #20 Onepoint272, Jul 23, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2016

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