I don't care for Apple products bit have always loved the iPhone. Went to Samsung Galaxy s7 edge tho a few months back and have not cared for it. I'll be going back to iPhone after my one year runs out with Verizon.
Don't think Apple's product portfolio is strong enough for it to break its ATH 132. However, given how much cash is sitting in its balance sheet, very likely it will break it with an acquisition.
Bearish Descending hawk which seems formed today could be a misleading. So, don't read that much about this bearish pattern after ER.
It is getting too bullish here, a pull back to 125 would be nice to trap some bears for the next run.
Food for thought. If Trump announces a tax repatriation bill this upcoming week. This explodes. It's a matter of when, not if.
So I have decided to do a series of articles on security analysis. I am planning this as a learning experience and any feedback would be greatly appreciated. A proper analysis of a stock is a constant process whereby as new information comes up a new review of the security must occur. Also, the more fundamental research and understanding you have of the company the better your analysis will become. I myself have yet to finish listening to all of the quarterly earnings calls from Tim Cook so I think a prompt update to this article will be due soon. Moats of Safety Apple is the largest company, by market cap, in the world. It is there because of its many Competitive Advantages that have propelled it forward. The one that should be the most appealing to the investor is the Gross margin of 40%. The moment I saw this I realized I needed to delve in further into the quarterly earnings. Given that eventually there is a likelihood for the gross margin to fall there are many other intangible assets that pad AAPL as a business. The brand and advertising schemes AAPL has enlisted has transitioned the IPhone from a technological innovation to a must-have consumer item. We see evidence of this with the IPhone 7 which is not the technological innovation it once was but has still beaten sales expectations of the product. The biggest discrepancy between Wall street analysts and the value of AAPL is they are either relying on Tim Cook being crazily bad at his job, a sudden catastrophe in earnings which seems less likely with the latest 1st quarter of 2017, or $200bn not being utilized towards a corporate event such as an acquisition or being grown likewise through investing or other activities. This amount of cash, means that we should, in the coming DCF model decrease the discount rate to account for 2/7 of the market cap being in cash or marketable securities (that could be liquidated into cash for an activity). The DCF Model I do not expect AAPL to have positive growth going forward. I think there will be a slight, but not a major, decline in revenue at least from the main product; the IPhone. I have not accounted for the cash that AAPL holds because I can't forecast what AAPL will do with it. To compensate with this I have lowered the discount rate to 5% (so the risk premium is around 3%). I have also been conservative with the growth forecast of around -3%. Given that my valuation of AAPL is around $155. This provides a margin of safety of around 20% from the current trading price which for some value investors is not much in terms of risk aversion. Having said this, I believe there is additional risk aversion in the intangible side of AAPL as well as the cash. DCF model (in progress) on google sheets. There is still a lot to add but I am currently focusing time and energy on a new security. There seems to be enough detail and conservative variables for a value investment opportunity to be present. The Trump Factor Trump is a volatile president. Carl Icahn left AAPL, his reasoning being "China" which seems in my opinion dubious. Even without AAPL within the next 5-15 years automation will be almost as cheap as outsourcing industry towards China. Not only this but if Trump does do some weird tax against multinational companies utilizing cheaper workforce in developing countries I think that AAPL will still do fine as Trump would also lower the tax rate to 20% which would be more beneficial if the gross margin for AAPL say went to 30% instead of 40% and the tax rate from 26% to 20% for shareholder equity. Catalyst The current share price is not significantly undervalued (with enough margin of safety to warrant it becoming the highest position on a portfolio). That being said it is still a good buy / hold on a diversified portfolio being a smaller position in consideration of some of the risks that genuinely pose a threat to AAPL if growth falls below -3% annually. Conclusion Buy / Hold. Target Share Price: $155. Current Share Price: $130. Originally recommended @ $120 I originally brought this stock to the attention of the community in one of my first trade journal posts. If, by chance, anyone did listen to that advice they would be doing quite well now. I still think there is some value to be found in AAPL albeit not as exceptional now since the price has increased substantially.
Last bearish descending hawk was a trap yesterday's flow through gave the bulls a full control. Profit taking not that far from here.
The bulls remain in a full control and indicators are suggesting a strong upward momentum should continue but a pullback is in process.
$AAPL low volume and it's up 0.89 in pre market wait till the volume picks up bears are doomed. With the price action the last 2 weeks, I thinks it's fair to say that Apple has chunks of shorts in its stool.
Long term $160 price target...short term I am thinking from here sideways at best. $AAPL carried this market...oh and these guys. Lol http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ltdown-here-reason-markets-inexplicable-surge
Hey! I don't usually post on the official stock pages but seeing as I have done extensive research on the stock I will chip in a bit. Berkshire hathaway has a moderately sized position in AAPL. This suggests the oracle of omaha has given it a thumbs up for long-term value. I originally recommended the stock on this forum @ $96. I feel the gross undervaluation of AAPL was down to the following: (1) failure to percieve the maximization of shareholder value of which Tim Cook and the board has done quite well in my opinion of achieving throughout this year and into subsequent years to follow. (2) a long-term bias against AAPL which can be traced by analyst forecasts for a long time now (5-6+ years). (3) a lack of understanding that AAPL is no longer a growth company but a company with a great product with premier brand advertising that acts as an amazing moat of safety against competition in the market. (4) And finally a failure in comprehending the sheer amount of cash AAPL has. This is where it's true competitive advantage lies. $200bn in cash and easily liquidatable equivalents. Never underestimate the potential of cash held by a great management team in a low interest rate environment. That's just my two cents. Somewhere I have written an article on Delving into AAPL which is my valuation (which is also posted above ^^). I really love the irony of the WS analysts moving their target price up weeks after they have most likely accumulated long positions, a true illustration of conflict of interest in WS fashion.
